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(EurekAlert)   New evidence strongly suggests covid, like your mom and the flu, is a seasonal infection linked to low temperatures and humidity   (eurekalert.org) divider line
    More: Interesting, Humidity, Epidemiology, Climate, low temperatures, Influenza, use of any information, first theoretical modelling study, Global Health  
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994 clicks; posted to STEM » on 22 Oct 2021 at 2:22 PM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-10-22 2:30:11 PM  
Finally, using an epidemiological model, the research team showed that incorporating temperature into the transmission rate works better for predicting the rise and fall of the different waves, particularly the first and third ones in Europe.

Our model could predict the rise and fall of different waves, except when it couldn't.
 
2021-10-22 3:33:23 PM  

Gyro the Greek Sandwich Pirate: Finally, using an epidemiological model, the research team showed that incorporating temperature into the transmission rate works better for predicting the rise and fall of the different waves, particularly the first and third ones in Europe.

Our model could predict the rise and fall of different waves, except when it couldn't.


Depending on the country I'm seeing 3rd, 4th, and 5th waves.

So they may be 2 for 3, 2 for 4, or 2 for 5.

Or, since not all of Europe has matching waves... Maybe it's bad study, maybe it's bad reporting... Hard to know.
 
2021-10-22 3:34:37 PM  
You mean to tell me that a virus which is transmitted by airborne droplets spreads faster when the air is drier (less water molecules getting in the way) and cooler (keeping them closer to the ground)? Next thing you'll be saying is that we'll probably be seeing another surge even larger than the one this past summer when people spend more time indoors and workers are packed by the thousands into hermetically sealed glass cubes.

I just can't even with all these "scientists" and their "logic". Youth Pastor Noah says my kids can't get the 'rona, anyway, and my boss is offering free Chick Fil A biscuits for the first week that everyone comes back to the office. Free biscuits! All week!
 
2021-10-22 3:49:42 PM  
"The first epidemic waves waned as temperature and humidity rose, and the second wave rose as temperatures and humidity fell. However, this pattern was broken during summertime in all continents."

Sounds like their model needs a lot of work.
 
2021-10-22 4:27:10 PM  
It doesn't take calculating-feynmann-diagrams-in-your-​head genius to figure this out.

A droplet borne disease spreads more efficiently when air is dry because dry air shrinks droplets faster and to a greater extent. This does all of allow them to go farther, stay suspended in mildly turbulent air longer, reach deeper into the lungs (where the infectious dose is much lower), and gives them a better chance at bypassing filter media.

It spreads more efficiently in the cold because (a) exposure to cold, dry air makes the cilia in the upper respiratory tract reverse direction, moving infected droplets down and in and (b) socially, cold conditions drive people to spend time inside, where bad ventilation creates heavy exposure potential.

And it's very important to note, the only things that 100% correlate with the waves of virus attack are the continuous shortsighted decision of health authorities to remove public health mandates every time cases wane. Funny, that.

This monstrosity is so infectious, however, that there is no "season" in the way that these seasonal effects rock the reproductive number of cold and flu back and forth across 1 and it's absurd to call it seasonal.
 
2021-10-22 4:43:25 PM  

erik-k: It doesn't take calculating-feynmann-diagrams-in-your-​head genius to figure this out.

A droplet borne disease spreads more efficiently when air is dry because dry air shrinks droplets faster and to a greater extent. This does all of allow them to go farther, stay suspended in mildly turbulent air longer, reach deeper into the lungs (where the infectious dose is much lower), and gives them a better chance at bypassing filter media.

It spreads more efficiently in the cold because (a) exposure to cold, dry air makes the cilia in the upper respiratory tract reverse direction, moving infected droplets down and in and (b) socially, cold conditions drive people to spend time inside, where bad ventilation creates heavy exposure potential.

And it's very important to note, the only things that 100% correlate with the waves of virus attack are the continuous shortsighted decision of health authorities to remove public health mandates every time cases wane. Funny, that.

This monstrosity is so infectious, however, that there is no "season" in the way that these seasonal effects rock the reproductive number of cold and flu back and forth across 1 and it's absurd to call it seasonal.


Very early on, an Italian scientist advocated humidifiers for shut up domiciles during the winter. I still run my tabletop humidifier when I sleep, though I use it more for the white noise-ish gurgling sound it makes.
 
2021-10-22 4:44:53 PM  
miro.medium.comView Full Size
 
2021-10-22 4:57:00 PM  

capn' fun: You mean to tell me that a virus which is transmitted by airborne droplets spreads faster when the air is drier (less water molecules getting in the way) and cooler (keeping them closer to the ground)? Next thing you'll be saying is that we'll probably be seeing another surge even larger than the one this past summer when people spend more time indoors and workers are packed by the thousands into hermetically sealed glass cubes.

I just can't even with all these "scientists" and their "logic". Youth Pastor Noah says my kids can't get the 'rona, anyway, and my boss is offering free Chick Fil A biscuits for the first week that everyone comes back to the office. Free biscuits! All week!


Chik Fil A you say? Are you guys hiring?
 
2021-10-22 5:17:00 PM  
Now, call me crazy, but mayhaps this has a lot more to do with how people dont spend nearly as much time outside in winter and tend to stay inside with air that hardly circulates properly


Because maybe its the whole "lots of people indoors" more than temperature and humidity. Especially since we had these whole 2 summers of high infections
 
2021-10-22 5:29:03 PM  
People spend more time indoors, around other people. I guess the "your mom" joke works.
 
2021-10-22 6:36:14 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-10-22 6:48:22 PM  

Randrew: [Fark user image 844x437]


What does the Delta variant peak correlate with?

Really?
 
2021-10-22 7:37:06 PM  

Eravior: People spend more time indoors, around other people. I guess the "your mom" joke works.


This is my expectation. They admit that this could be the cause of the summer spikes, but not that it could be the cause of the winter spikes.
 
2021-10-22 7:50:07 PM  

Randrew: [Fark user image image 844x437]


That peak correlates with dumbfarkery, mostly.
 
2021-10-22 8:46:55 PM  
US Virgin Islands, a hot and humid place all the time with a lot of tourists, has had under 7200 cases with 78 deaths for 105,000 population territory. https://doh.vi.gov/

COVID-19 Cases
Positive: 7126
Negative: 195268
Recovered: 6950/7126
Active: 98/7126
Deaths: 78/7126
Last Updated: Fri, Oct 22, 2021, 02:25 pm
 
2021-10-22 8:47:15 PM  
Or, we can be sensible and LOCK THE fark DOWN and not care about the temp or humidity.

Full on military enforced martial law lockdown and end this shiat.  have the military take out the quarantine runners.  No matter the cost.  End the pandemic.  After the end of corona we can start thinking about how to restart the economy.  With proper viral mitigation measures.  Including not mixing shipping crews and flight crews and 2 week quarantine of ALL border crossers (legal and otherwise).  We are all in this together.
 
2021-10-22 9:56:14 PM  
New evidence, schmew schmevidence.

I have seen all kinds of studies saying all kinds of things. Which 10% of it should we choose to make policy on?

As with most things, 90% of solving the problem is absolutely no brainer stuff. Wear a mask. Social distancing. Wash your hands. There. Done. Want to get fancy? OK. Do all that, and then vaccinate and continue vaccinating.

Want to get fancier? Well, you might make things a teeny bit better, but you get diminishing returns. Make suggestions. Nit pick. Avoid folk remedies. Try to predict trends.

But you run into a wall eventually because of NOISE and anecdotes and someone's PhD work being trotted out as gospel.

I would be very happy if people could just stick to a basic program rather than trying to finesse things.
 
2021-10-22 11:08:49 PM  

AmbassadorBooze: Or, we can be sensible and LOCK THE fark DOWN and not care about the temp or humidity.

Full on military enforced martial law lockdown and end this shiat.  have the military take out the quarantine runners.  No matter the cost.  End the pandemic.  After the end of corona we can start thinking about how to restart the economy.  With proper viral mitigation measures.  Including not mixing shipping crews and flight crews and 2 week quarantine of ALL border crossers (legal and otherwise).  We are all in this together.


Zombie movies tell me otherwise.
 
2021-10-23 5:47:52 AM  

AmbassadorBooze: Or, we can be sensible and LOCK THE fark DOWN and not care about the temp or humidity.

Full on military enforced martial law lockdown and end this shiat.  have the military take out the quarantine runners.  No matter the cost.  End the pandemic.  After the end of corona we can start thinking about how to restart the economy.  With proper viral mitigation measures.  Including not mixing shipping crews and flight crews and 2 week quarantine of ALL border crossers (legal and otherwise).  We are all in this together.


Sounds good.

There are 251 nations on the planet (UN count), and if they all do this perfectly, all at the same time, without any mistakes, at all, we can completely eradicate covid 19. Not to mention all influenza and the common cold! We just need everyone everywhere to immediately stop getting near anyone else for a few weeks.

I think this will work.
 
2021-10-23 7:01:24 AM  

Randrew: [Fark user image image 844x437]


The US has been having peak outbreaks every 4 months or so, regardless of the weather. However, this effect is not seen in other countries.
 
2021-10-23 8:38:13 AM  
Oh dear... in my state 2 spikes were in the summer with high heat and humidity and 1 spike in the winter with low humidity....

so the 2 seasons when people stay inside the most.
 
2021-10-23 12:18:09 PM  

Mad_Radhu: Randrew: [Fark user image image 844x437]

That peak correlates with dumbfarkery, mostly.


Probably, but it makes me wonder how these researchers have extracted their seasonal conclusion from data with strong conflicting indicators.  No, I don't wonder quite enough to thread through the published paper at this time... more of an idle curiosity.

BullBearMS: Randrew: [Fark user image 844x437]

What does the Delta variant peak correlate with?

Really?


Nanner-nanner-boo-boo?
 
2021-10-23 5:46:51 PM  

recondite cetacean: You know what else correlate?  I'll follow up with the science and the methodology, but in the meantime it's Zooey.

[Fark user image 731x1024]


I would correlate with her.
 
2021-10-23 7:37:34 PM  

Captain Shaky: AmbassadorBooze: Or, we can be sensible and LOCK THE fark DOWN and not care about the temp or humidity.

Full on military enforced martial law lockdown and end this shiat.  have the military take out the quarantine runners.  No matter the cost.  End the pandemic.  After the end of corona we can start thinking about how to restart the economy.  With proper viral mitigation measures.  Including not mixing shipping crews and flight crews and 2 week quarantine of ALL border crossers (legal and otherwise).  We are all in this together.

Sounds good.

There are 251 nations on the planet (UN count), and if they all do this perfectly, all at the same time, without any mistakes, at all, we can completely eradicate covid 19. Not to mention all influenza and the common cold! We just need everyone everywhere to immediately stop getting near anyone else for a few weeks.

I think this will work.


The US has nukes.  We can handle the non compliant countries.
 
2021-10-23 8:57:45 PM  
Their next study shows increased pregnancy when not using condoms. Nobel Prize winners for sure.
 
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