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(Twitter)   Is this guy a wizard or were we all just blind to how fragile the global economy really was?   (twitter.com) divider line
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1663 clicks; posted to Business » on 18 Oct 2021 at 10:11 AM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-10-18 9:19:03 AM  
Original Tweet:

 
2021-10-18 9:32:34 AM  
I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"
 
2021-10-18 9:48:50 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


It's a literal economic house of cards
 
mgh [TotalFark]
2021-10-18 9:54:51 AM  
I was surprised JIT worked as well and for as long as it did.  But people have said it's going to fail since the beginning.
 
2021-10-18 9:55:36 AM  
Wait. Complex systems that entirely depend upon every single part of them always functioning perfectly within the last narrow window of time during which a task can be acceptably completed are extremely susceptible to disruption and catastrophic failure?

I don't believe you.
 
2021-10-18 9:58:42 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.
 
2021-10-18 10:06:24 AM  
oblig.
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-10-18 10:17:05 AM  
We were able to save 1% on warehousing costs and improve the optics of our financials by carrying less inventory right up to where we had to drop production by 60% and went bankrupt because of supply problems.
 
2021-10-18 10:18:12 AM  
We've been talking about on the business tab for a long time. I'm a little more alarmist because I'm afraid of what could happen if it really, REALLY goes wrong... but our short-sightedness and pure profit motive is really f*cking things up.

"Investing in future growth" has been totally thrown away by most people because they would rather pocket the cash now. It's a rape and pillage culture.

You see how amazing it can be when it works. AWS was just Amazon planning for future growth and all of a sudden it's this gigantic part of the business. Companies used to know that you HAVE to invest and grow. Invest in employees and capacity and grow... not always look to cut cut cut...

When companies just cut costs and don't invest they f*ck all of us at the expense of their vacation homes. It's stupid. Now it becomes dangerous because our entire world economy runs on this sh*t... We joke about the plastic toys, but medical supplies and drugs are part of this too.

People will literally die because of it.
 
2021-10-18 10:24:29 AM  

wademh: We were able to save 1% on warehousing costs and improve the optics of our financials by carrying less inventory right up to where we had to drop production by 60% and went bankrupt because of supply problems.


"Management by spreadsheet" is the biggest problem facing many companies these days. It like a formal process of finding the most "penny wise and pound foolish" decisions.

But some bean counter gets a cookie for every penny shaved.
 
2021-10-18 10:25:38 AM  

NewportBarGuy: We've been talking about on the business tab for a long time. I'm a little more alarmist because I'm afraid of what could happen if it really, REALLY goes wrong... but our short-sightedness and pure profit motive is really f*cking things up.

"Investing in future growth" has been totally thrown away by most people because they would rather pocket the cash now. It's a rape and pillage culture.

You see how amazing it can be when it works. AWS was just Amazon planning for future growth and all of a sudden it's this gigantic part of the business. Companies used to know that you HAVE to invest and grow. Invest in employees and capacity and grow... not always look to cut cut cut...

When companies just cut costs and don't invest they f*ck all of us at the expense of their vacation homes. It's stupid. Now it becomes dangerous because our entire world economy runs on this sh*t... We joke about the plastic toys, but medical supplies and drugs are part of this too.

People will literally die because of it.



I call this "management by spreadsheet".

I've watched it turn several once-great companies in to sweatshops that no longer innovate.
 
2021-10-18 10:30:25 AM  
That's always been the fear.  As long as the supply chain works you're fine.  Aside from the warehousing issue there's also producing too much of something that is then worthless and is taking up warehouse space. Think anything computer related or fads that burn out after a year.
 
2021-10-18 10:31:04 AM  
When done correctly, just-in-time isn't about eliminating all inventory, it's about eliminating excess inventory.  If a critical component has a long lead time, and/or is known to be subject to supply chain disruptions, there is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping some inventory of that component on hand, just in case of shipping delays and such.

Case in point: Toyota (the company who invented just-in-time manufacturing) started keeping extra microchips at their factories after the 2011 earthquake shut down some of their suppliers, which forced Toyota to shut down their assembly lines until those suppliers were able to repair their factories and start manufacturing again.  This year, Toyota was eventually forced to shut down their assembly line due to a lack of microchips, but not until months after most of their competitors (who had almost no inventory) had already shut down.
 
2021-10-18 10:39:43 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


And what happens when there is a point of failure in a supply chain without JIT?  A failure is still a failure.
 
2021-10-18 10:40:58 AM  

anfrind: When done correctly, just-in-time isn't about eliminating all inventory, it's about eliminating excess inventory.  If a critical component has a long lead time, and/or is known to be subject to supply chain disruptions, there is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping some inventory of that component on hand, just in case of shipping delays and such.

Case in point: Toyota (the company who invented just-in-time manufacturing) started keeping extra microchips at their factories after the 2011 earthquake shut down some of their suppliers, which forced Toyota to shut down their assembly lines until those suppliers were able to repair their factories and start manufacturing again.  This year, Toyota was eventually forced to shut down their assembly line due to a lack of microchips, but not until months after most of their competitors (who had almost no inventory) had already shut down.


Toyota knows the Way. American corporations trying to emulate it and cut even more corners, not so much.

Let's not even get into other companies that seem to think 5S is the same thing.
 
2021-10-18 10:43:57 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.
Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


i just posted this.  Here again.
Not mine.  I use different words.  Like, YOU FARKING GREEDY ASSHOLES WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU'RE DOING?

Apparently in the dream world of theoretical economics those expounding the wonders of globalization thought they could somehow escape the consequences of one of the primary laws of the universe. Only now, as we are seeing on an increasing basis every day, they were wrong.
The operation of a "globalized" system of production, consumption, and pollution has, to put it mildly, a lot of moving parts - which means more things can go wrong that will ultimately affect the entire system....
None of the "supply chain" problems are going away any time soon - nor is entropy. What should - and may - go away is the fantasy of a smooth-running, extremely profitable, horrifically polluting concept of globalization as the path to a sustainable future.

The choice is ours - we can continue on the failing path as globalization meets entropy as we burn through our resources for quick profits and choke on our own exhaust. Or we can reject globalization's model of consumption and pollution, increase localization, and give generations yet to come a chance at a livable, sustainable, future.
 
2021-10-18 10:46:19 AM  
We we all blind and many still are.
The bad thing is, there really is not a solution. It's like water being wet and the sky being blue.
 
2021-10-18 10:54:55 AM  
Back when I was in office, I worked next to a manager in charge of logistics for some of our product lines.  He was old school and absolutely hated JIT.  Bad snow storm near one of our Canadian facilities that damaged rail infrastructure, 3 week delay in shipping, farked things up major downstream for way longer than 3 weeks.

And me, sitting over in a technical side constantly concerned about uptime, availability and ensuring proper redundancy.  My man was living my nightmare.  Something broke, it's out of his control to get it fixed and he's going to have to take all the abuse for not having an alternative.  But he wasn't the one that decided we'd only have one place making this item for the entirety of North America.
 
2021-10-18 10:55:41 AM  
Tay is a treasure, come for the InfoSec, stay for the furries and corn facts.
 
2021-10-18 10:58:10 AM  

Mr.Tangent: Tay is a treasure, come for the InfoSec, stay for the furries and corn facts.


Don't forget:

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-10-18 10:58:20 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-10-18 11:00:12 AM  
CSB: I got an MBA from Texas A&M in 1991. Don't hurt me, I eventually wound up being a mostly productive citizen as a programmer. Anyway, I realized last night that our management classes were all about investment, trying to support employee needs and desires, and looking ahead. You know, the stuff we all talk about in these threads that so many companies aren't doing and blaming it on hot-shot MBAs.

I do NOT think that A&M had an especially forward-thinking business department. I'm certain what we were taught was being taught all over the country. These people should be high up in management now. So why are so few companies doing any of it? Corrupted by the old money? I suppose that is the simplest answer. Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.
 
2021-10-18 11:03:53 AM  

JammerJim: Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.


Economists say that because of inflation a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
 
2021-10-18 11:09:17 AM  

Stibium: JammerJim: Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.

Economists say that because of inflation a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.


Well, yeah. Are you saying this is all due to an excessive (and wrongheaded) application of Net Present Value?
 
2021-10-18 11:16:44 AM  
It isn't that hard to make ball point pin rollers.  It only takes some circular grooves in two very flat metal plates and they could be made by hand with that kind of tool.  The trick is the ability to make more than a few hundred a day.  Bic makes about 2 billion a year.

When Trump started making comments about getting China out of the supply chain, his supporters didn't believe him and didn't follow his advice.  I now look at that as being very odd.
 
2021-10-18 11:18:30 AM  

JammerJim: CSB: I got an MBA from Texas A&M in 1991. Don't hurt me, I eventually wound up being a mostly productive citizen as a programmer. Anyway, I realized last night that our management classes were all about investment, trying to support employee needs and desires, and looking ahead. You know, the stuff we all talk about in these threads that so many companies aren't doing and blaming it on hot-shot MBAs.

I do NOT think that A&M had an especially forward-thinking business department. I'm certain what we were taught was being taught all over the country. These people should be high up in management now. So why are so few companies doing any of it? Corrupted by the old money? I suppose that is the simplest answer. Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.


All of our acquisition and systems engineering training classes at my job detail an idealistic process with peer reviews, milestone meetings with strict entry and exit criteria, testing, logistics, analysis of alternatives, etc.  In reality, other than the milestone meetings taking place, NONE of it is followed.  So Texas A&M and likely all other MBA programs likely train to the ideal but the reality is that it is too expensive up front to do it right.

Make money now; the future is someone else's problem.
 
2021-10-18 11:23:12 AM  
I've been saying that for a while. An efficient system is a brittle system. There's a reason evolution ended up with organisms with redundant and secondary organs.
 
2021-10-18 11:27:25 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


Well, if your purchasing department is competently run, they won't sole source anything that isn't a standard part. There are many reasons for competitive bidding, and one is to have a second or third supplier in case something goes wrong. Because something always goes wrong.

I have constantly been dumbfounded by the amount of managers that can't take 5 minutes to come up with a contingency plan because problems only happen because someone, who isn't them, wasn't working hard enough.
 
2021-10-18 11:35:14 AM  
I mean yes.... but there's A LOT more too it. It's not just throwing things in the back of a truck seconds before it's due in the shops. Just look at the seasonal cloths of almost any big box retailer.

I remember Kohl's used to have to order their seasonal clothes almost 6 months in advance.... The problem was they would get them 3 months early and instead of holding them they would put them out... it ended up with everything being a sold out of season which made ZERO sense.

So if you wanted a winter jacket you couldn't buy it in Nov-Jan... no no you had to buy it in August... And if you wanted swim trucks you couldn't buy it in May - June no no.... You had to buy in Feb-Apr.... This was in the North East, ain't NO-ONE thinking about how hot the weather will be in June outside of wishful thinking.

So YES, on the surface, and likely for a number of places JIT is a house of cards. But the bigger issue is just all the bottlenecks personally. Just look at Vinyl records. You have maybe 3 places actually making them and when all the big companies switch to Mr. Lowball suddenly it's 9 months for a single pressing because they were so eager for business they chopped their nose off to spite their face and SURPRISE they can't actually do the freakin job? Same thing with the meat processing plants.

You pigeon hole all these places behind MASSIVE companies fighting to see who can undercut who and surprise, suddenly everything starts getting muddled.
 
2021-10-18 11:38:25 AM  
Who is this We you speak of? The problem of just-in-time is first year Women's Studies, Geography, Labour Studies, and Sociology, here in Canada, since it is the social structure of diseases caused environmental contaminants, the structure of working life, and determines North American household rhythms.

You have to be farking ignorant, more ignorant than a drunk 18-year-old at university, to not know the problems of just-in-time economics. You have to be naive as a worker and a parent, basically.
 
2021-10-18 11:39:50 AM  

bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"


It is starting to infect the government (and by extension the military) and frankly since the military is typically our fallback for all things going wrong that is very scary to me.

As bad as Covid is we have dodged a bullet with it not being worse.
 
2021-10-18 11:43:34 AM  

JammerJim: Corrupted by the old money? I suppose that is the simplest answer. Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.


It's always money.
 
2021-10-18 11:44:24 AM  
The world is built with matchsticks and sandpaper. A shove here, a jostle there and it all lights up in flames.

It is foolish to be wise where the ignorant are in bliss.

HOW ABOUT DEM BEARS?  GOOD GAME, HUH?

/At least once in my life, I've pushed a button that has affected millions of people.
//I had the flu
///I should not have been doing it, but there was no one else to do it
////Have a FANTASTIC day
 
2021-10-18 11:47:02 AM  

ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.


The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.
 
2021-10-18 11:48:36 AM  

fortheloveof: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

It is starting to infect the government (and by extension the military) and frankly since the military is typically our fallback for all things going wrong that is very scary to me.

As bad as Covid is we have dodged a bullet with it not being worse.


Yup. And a war with China, or even just angrier than normal saber rattling, can cause some massive problems both for the world economy but also our military.

On the upside, China's star is fading fast. On the downside, it's more likely to go supernova instead of a fizzle and puff like the British empire did.
 
2021-10-18 11:50:30 AM  

ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.


Two big assumptions.  One that the global covid-19 crisis should not have led to supply chain issues.  Two is that the existing logistical system can't fix the problem.
On the first note, it's not an across the board problem.  Despite very serious issues caused by covid-19, we have not seen global mass starvation due to food shortages.  Americans are being asked to spend a lot more on new and used cars due to a microprocessor shortage, and we have modest inflation (historical norm for most of the 20th century was 6%, we are still below that).  The horror.
On the second assumption, logistics companies have greatly accelerated recruiting and training efforts, and will catch up on trucking and port operations in a few months.
If we are filling sand bags and cracking open our neighbors skulls to eat the goo inside in six months, I will agree with your argument.
 
2021-10-18 11:53:13 AM  

fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.


Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...
 
2021-10-18 11:53:48 AM  

anfrind: When done correctly, just-in-time isn't about eliminating all inventory, it's about eliminating excess inventory.  If a critical component has a long lead time, and/or is known to be subject to supply chain disruptions, there is absolutely nothing wrong with keeping some inventory of that component on hand, just in case of shipping delays and such.

Case in point: Toyota (the company who invented just-in-time manufacturing) started keeping extra microchips at their factories after the 2011 earthquake shut down some of their suppliers, which forced Toyota to shut down their assembly lines until those suppliers were able to repair their factories and start manufacturing again.  This year, Toyota was eventually forced to shut down their assembly line due to a lack of microchips, but not until months after most of their competitors (who had almost no inventory) had already shut down.


So how do you know you're doing it correctly?

As you point out, Toyota starting keeping extra chips around AFTER a disruption. They were doing it wrong, and didn't know it.

As a business, do you know which components are subject to long lead time or supply chain interruptions? That's assuming you know which components are critical.

And this isn't something you can just assess and plan for when designing your process. Supply chains change. Lead times change. So if you're doing JIT, you need to be constantly reassessing your supply chain for changes, as well as your process for changes to your list of critical components.
 
2021-10-18 11:58:03 AM  
It is spelled JIT, but pronounced GIT.
 
2021-10-18 11:58:57 AM  

somedude210: fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.

Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...


For myself it has always been less immediate than the Pentagon. This is not to say leadership does not listen to me, or that they are dumb but sitting down seeing the test results and attending the meetings as I advance has shown me they are not smarter, just more experienced generally.

Which is fine, good leadership is using the better skills of those below you to best effect for the mission. However I deal with a lot of very intelligent junior enlisted and I have to actively encourage them to share their thoughts because they still think, "higher rank == smarter". Those junior enlisted sharing their insight can help avoid pitfalls they can see that others cannot due to that intelligence gap.
 
2021-10-18 12:10:04 PM  

Northern: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

Two big assumptions.  One that the global covid-19 crisis should not have led to supply chain issues.  Two is that the existing logistical system can't fix the problem.
On the first note, it's not an across the board problem.  Despite very serious issues caused by covid-19, we have not seen global mass starvation due to food shortages.  Americans are being asked to spend a lot more on new and used cars due to a microprocessor shortage, and we have modest inflation (historical norm for most of the 20th century was 6%, we are still below that).  The horror.
On the second assumption, logistics companies have greatly accelerated recruiting and training efforts, and will catch up on trucking and port operations in a few months.
If we are filling sand bags and cracking open our neighbors skulls to eat the goo inside in six months, I will agree with your argument.


Don't forget the February Texas snowpacalypse.

If your having troubles getting furniture it's because 3 of the 4 plants that make the foam that goes into furniture lost power and froze. They were offline for quite a while.

The 4th plant is in Louisiana and was flooded.
 
2021-10-18 12:16:21 PM  

fortheloveof: somedude210: fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.

Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...

For myself it has always been less immediate than the Pentagon. This is not to say leadership does not listen to me, or that they are dumb but sitting down seeing the test results and attending the meetings as I advance has shown me they are not smarter, just more experienced generally.

Which is fine, good leadership is using the better skills of those below you to best effect for the mission. However I deal with a lot of very intelligent junior enlisted and I have to actively encourage them to share their thoughts because they still think, "higher rank == smarter". Those junior enlisted sharing their insight can help avoid pitfalls they can see that others cannot due to that intelligence gap.


If your talking about Afghanistan, military leadership was fine.

No conditions for victory and no exit strategy was announced when the invasion began. As a result, military leadership did not work to achieve victory or exit the war.

The military was never told the Afghan war would end until this past June when all the military contractors left( the crying of defense contractors can still be heard in DC).
 
2021-10-18 12:28:52 PM  

mcreadyblue: fortheloveof: somedude210: fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.

Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...

For myself it has always been less immediate than the Pentagon. This is not to say leadership does not listen to me, or that they are dumb but sitting down seeing the test results and attending the meetings as I advance has shown me they are not smarter, just more experienced generally.

Which is fine, good leadership is using the better skills of those below you to best effect for the mission. However I deal with a lot of very intelligent junior enlisted and I have to actively encourage them to share their thoughts because they still think, "higher rank == smarter". Those junior enlisted sharing their insight can help avoid pitfalls they can see that others cannot due to that intelligence gap.

If your talking about Afghanistan, military leadership was fine.

No conditions for victory and no exit strategy was announced when the invasion began. As a result, military leadership did not work to achieve victory or exit the war.

The military was never told the Afghan war would end until this past June when all the military contractors left( the crying of defense contractors can still be heard in DC).


Nope, neither of us are talking about that.

Generally, across the military community, whether it's r&d, doctrines, ttps, or just looking to the future and predicting where the next fight will be and what it will entail is often an exercise in the futility of persuasion.

"I'm an SES!"

Well that's good for you, but you're still an idiot because you cannot see just how f*cked we are if this, this, or this, happen. Any of which have a higher than likely chance of occurring in the next 5 years, and almost certain chance of happening in the next 15.

"That'll be the next guy's problem"

🙄
 
2021-10-18 12:40:57 PM  

mcreadyblue: fortheloveof: somedude210: fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.

Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...

For myself it has always been less immediate than the Pentagon. This is not to say leadership does not listen to me, or that they are dumb but sitting down seeing the test results and attending the meetings as I advance has shown me they are not smarter, just more experienced generally.

Which is fine, good leadership is using the better skills of those below you to best effect for the mission. However I deal with a lot of very intelligent junior enlisted and I have to actively encourage them to share their thoughts because they still think, "higher rank == smarter". Those junior enlisted sharing their insight can help avoid pitfalls they can see that others cannot due to that intelligence gap.

If your talking about Afghanistan, military leadership was fine.

No conditions for victory and no exit strategy was announced when the invasion began. As a result, military leadership did not work to achieve victory or exit the war.

The military was never told the Afghan war would end until this past June when all the military contractors left( the crying of defense contractors can still be heard in DC).


I was addressing a general reality, not Afghanistan specifically. I do generally agree with your assessment.
 
2021-10-18 12:53:49 PM  
Both. SwiftOnSecurity is in fact a wizard.

And the royal we were in fact blind to how fragile the global economy really was.
 
2021-10-18 12:57:50 PM  
Yes, subby, this guy is a wizard.

I've followed his tweets for quite a while now.
 
2021-10-18 12:59:00 PM  

Oliver Twisted: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

And what happens when there is a point of failure in a supply chain without JIT?  A failure is still a failure.


You have buffered inventory to either allow the failure to resolve or activate an alternative supplier.
 
2021-10-18 1:52:29 PM  

JammerJim: Stibium: JammerJim: Get paid today instead of maybe getting paid tomorrow. You don't even have to be a bad person really, if the whole system is constantly pushing you a certain way.

Economists say that because of inflation a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

Well, yeah. Are you saying this is all due to an excessive (and wrongheaded) application of Net Present Value?


As non-economists say, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. A dollar in the right place yesterday is far more valuable than a dollar trying to find it's way today, inflation is just an excuse for improper investment. Preparation and position is everything, dollars chasing dollars (or cents in this case) tends to be a losing proposition as any trader knows. It's far more trouble keeping all the plates spinning than it would be to have adequate buffering. Worst case buffering breaks even, but you don't have to have an entire crew endlessly moving product around because there's no space and no need for process managers and purchase agents scrambling 24/7 to keep everything moving.

I used to work in a global 10B publicly traded company. Thanks to the abysmally bad JIT implementation we would occasionally run out of parts for a shift or two, so because we missed production goals we would send 60-80B companies parts that our own engineers declared were faulty. Hundreds of thousands of these things that were destined to be reworked headed for Mexico, to be installed into essential powertrain assemblies for a car you might have driven to work today.

We used to have a building next door specifically to store excess parts and component materials for the buffer, but management thought it wiser to store crap and junk machines in there instead. It worked fine until a shipment missed a shift then everything went to shiat.
 
2021-10-18 2:01:48 PM  
JIT is a problem on the one end, but you also have a problem on the other end.  Companies are so focused on squeezing every bit of value out of their employees and factories that there is no room to grow or handle a sudden disruption.  Sure, you'll make more money if you're always running at 110%.  But if you lose an employee, or close for a week, everything crashes to a halt and you can't catch back up again.  You can't quickly expand production to handle a surge.

If companies kept a few extra employees around and trained them up early and overbuilt their factories a bit, they'd be able to handle a sudden surge in demand with a but of overtime.  But we can't hire people to just sit around.
 
2021-10-18 2:05:22 PM  

somedude210: fortheloveof: ltnor: bostonguy: I think I learned about JIT back when I was doing my MBA.

Even at the time, I thought to myself: "What happens when there is a single point of failure anywhere in the supply chain?"

The aluminum company I worked for 25 years ago got on that JIT craze and the current company I work for was just starting to make some noise about it in 2019. If a simple production worker can see that it was going to bite us in the ass, people smarter than me should have too. But we have to please the shareholders with better numbers every single day.

The military has broken my old assumption that people higher up the chain than me are smarter than I am. Which is as much a curse as a blessing.

Ehhhh, I mean, in many ways the Pentagon brass has always been behind the curve, always fighting the last war and so on.

It's when they stop listening to reason or demand a crapload of evidence of a problem before they accept there's a problem that it becomes very worrisome. And they have in my experience, sometimes to the point where they are getting smacked over the head with reality several times and still refuse to believe what they're being told because "we can just blow it up as soon as we see it". You're not going to see it until it's too late, idiots. That's what we've been telling you!

It's like they want a body count before they accept reality sometimes...


You'll never see a logistics general on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, even though our military is only effective because of its logistics. And by effective I mean actually fighting, not nation building.
 
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