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(Fortune)   So when WILL China overtake the US and become the world's largest economy? 答案可能会让你大吃一惊   (fortune.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, United States, Economy of the United States, Economy of the People's Republic of China, Gross domestic product, China, Economy of Japan, torrent of important China-related developments, International Monetary Fund  
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1085 clicks; posted to Business » on 28 Sep 2021 at 5:50 PM (34 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-09-28 5:52:29 PM  
Let's see which tanks faster, one because of Xis massive ego, the other because we in the USA have abandoned reason and celebrate mediocrity and corruption.
 
2021-09-28 5:57:09 PM  
Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass
 
2021-09-28 6:01:28 PM  
China is trying to build a blue water navy including twelve carriers, a supersized space station, a kilometer long ship, and a lunar and martian base. They are doing this while carrying out a genocide, expanding their borders, losing a major source of fuel (Australian coal), dealing with natural disasters from climate change, dealing with the fallout of decades of inaction on environmental issues where they agreed to be the dumping ground for the rest of the world's toxic electronics waste, and shutting down entire cities sporadically to snuff out Covid breakouts. In another twenty years they will be facing a Japan-like demographics problem.

We have serious problems here but not like anything on the order that China faces.
 
2021-09-28 6:06:19 PM  

NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass


Naw. The Constitution requires the federal government to pay it's debt. If nothing else they can rely on that to do so while things play out politically.

The debt ceiling technically is probably constitutional as an implied thing but only if it doesn't mess with things actually written into the Constitution. And the debt ceiling is only there because Congress allows it to be. It is a negotiation tool. This time it isn't being used for negotiation so it has no further utility. A reconciliation bill can deal with the debt ceiling.
 
2021-09-28 6:18:18 PM  
You know what will allow America to win against the Chinese as they advance in technology?  More prayer, eliminating all science books, only allowing schools to teach the bible, enslave all women, legalize rape and hope that Jeebus returns to gives those red Chinese the what for.

Can I get a nazi "Amen!", brothers and future slaves of fat stupid men?

It's the christian way.
 
2021-09-28 6:26:27 PM  
Not likely to happen at all.

China is about to get wrecked by a demographic catastrophe like nobody has ever seen.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-28 6:27:24 PM  
It is interesting how nobody foresees any political turbulence in China's rural areas in the near future considering the fact that the welfare safety net is for urban citizens only.
 
2021-09-28 6:28:00 PM  

NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass


If they think it's that vital, there's nothing stopping Democrats raising the ceiling on their own. They just want Republicans on board because Democrats are trying to avoid having it hung around their necks come election time. Republicans, understandably enough, aren't much motivated to let them off the hook.
 
2021-09-28 6:33:14 PM  
moves by the Biden administration allowed Canadian authorities to release Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wenzhou, and Beijing immediately reciprocated by freeing "the two Michaels," Canadian citizens detained in China on espionage charges.

Oh so coincidentally, they also just removed a "you can't leave China" order on a couple of Americans, in effect since, I think, 2018. They weren't arrested or charged with anything and could move around, but they couldn't depart. Don't trust China. China is asshole.
 
2021-09-28 6:34:40 PM  

jjorsett: NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass

If they think it's that vital, there's nothing stopping Democrats raising the ceiling on their own. They just want Republicans on board because Democrats are trying to avoid having it hung around their necks come election time. Republicans, understandably enough, aren't much motivated to let them off the hook.


Yup.  McConnell has said that dumping the debt ceiling on Democrats is a pure political play so that Republicans can crow about Dems and their unchecked spending during next year's election.
 
2021-09-28 6:35:33 PM  
Another article with a paywall.  Mods, don't you even check?
 
DVD
2021-09-28 6:45:55 PM  

jjorsett: NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass

If they think it's that vital, there's nothing stopping Democrats raising the ceiling on their own. They just want Republicans on board because Democrats are trying to avoid having it hung around their necks come election time. Republicans, understandably enough, aren't much motivated to let them off the hook.


_____________________________________

Especially since that debt is from Republican-approved spending during the last Trumpian fiscal year.  Breaking things so that Democrats look like they're the incompetent ones is standard Republican operating procedure.

Too bad it's now extended into tricking Republicans into murdering masses of themselves via Faux News anti-vax, anti-pandemic measure misinformation.
 
2021-09-28 7:27:00 PM  
Dollar terms or RMB terms? There is likely to be a big difference in when it will occur based on who is doing the measuring.

I am not much of a flag waver. China produces a lot of stuff and sells a lot of it in the US. China is a part of the US economy. The US has its roles too. I don't see a particular desire on the part of either party to get too far out of its role/box. Both giants are sufficiently distracted for a little bit here, which is probably just as good for everyone else.
 
2021-09-28 8:09:39 PM  
(About the novel "Snow Crash")

"The story opens in Los Angeles in the 21st century, an unspecified number of years after a worldwide economic collapse. Los Angeles is no longer part of the United States, since the federal government has ceded most of its power and territory to private organizations and entrepreneurs.[5] Franchising, individual sovereignty, and private vehicles reign supreme. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, while private security guards preserve the peace in sovereign, gated housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads, and all mail delivery is by hired courier. The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Much of the world's territory has been carved up into sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong", or the corporatized American Mafia), or various residential burbclaves - quasi-sovereign gated communities."
 
2021-09-28 8:58:31 PM  

AllCatsAreBeautiful: It is interesting how nobody foresees any political turbulence in China's rural areas in the near future considering the fact that the welfare safety net is for urban citizens only.


Anyone living in China's rural areas who would cause any political turbulence (or are not Han) would get quietly spirited away to one of Xi Jinpooh's "Happy Farms™" before they could start causing any trouble for the Party. Their families, neighbors, classmates or coworkers, and anyone else who might have known them personally, will carry on with their lives as though the spirited away people never existed in the first place, lest they get sent to a Happy Farm™ as well.
 
2021-09-28 9:00:53 PM  

skinink: (About the novel "Snow Crash")

"The story opens in Los Angeles in the 21st century, an unspecified number of years after a worldwide economic collapse. Los Angeles is no longer part of the United States, since the federal government has ceded most of its power and territory to private organizations and entrepreneurs.[5] Franchising, individual sovereignty, and private vehicles reign supreme. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, while private security guards preserve the peace in sovereign, gated housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads, and all mail delivery is by hired courier. The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Much of the world's territory has been carved up into sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong", or the corporatized American Mafia), or various residential burbclaves - quasi-sovereign gated communities."


I'm going to be the world's first topian science fiction author. It's the future, things aren't great, but they're not terrible either, and most things are exactly the same as now.
 
2021-09-28 9:06:14 PM  

Lusiphur: skinink: (About the novel "Snow Crash")

"The story opens in Los Angeles in the 21st century, an unspecified number of years after a worldwide economic collapse. Los Angeles is no longer part of the United States, since the federal government has ceded most of its power and territory to private organizations and entrepreneurs.[5] Franchising, individual sovereignty, and private vehicles reign supreme. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, while private security guards preserve the peace in sovereign, gated housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads, and all mail delivery is by hired courier. The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Much of the world's territory has been carved up into sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong", or the corporatized American Mafia), or various residential burbclaves - quasi-sovereign gated communities."

I'm going to be the world's first topian science fiction author. It's the future, things aren't great, but they're not terrible either, and most things are exactly the same as now.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-28 9:24:37 PM  

Lusiphur: skinink: (About the novel "Snow Crash")

"The story opens in Los Angeles in the 21st century, an unspecified number of years after a worldwide economic collapse. Los Angeles is no longer part of the United States, since the federal government has ceded most of its power and territory to private organizations and entrepreneurs.[5] Franchising, individual sovereignty, and private vehicles reign supreme. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, while private security guards preserve the peace in sovereign, gated housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads, and all mail delivery is by hired courier. The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Much of the world's territory has been carved up into sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong", or the corporatized American Mafia), or various residential burbclaves - quasi-sovereign gated communities."

I'm going to be the world's first topian science fiction author. It's the future, things aren't great, but they're not terrible either, and most things are exactly the same as now.


That's the premise of Futurama
 
2021-09-28 9:26:39 PM  

BolloxReader: NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass

Naw. The Constitution requires the federal government to pay it's debt. If nothing else they can rely on that to do so while things play out politically.

The debt ceiling technically is probably constitutional as an implied thing but only if it doesn't mess with things actually written into the Constitution. And the debt ceiling is only there because Congress allows it to be. It is a negotiation tool. This time it isn't being used for negotiation so it has no further utility. A reconciliation bill can deal with the debt ceiling.


Until 2023 when the (probably) Republican controlled Congress decides to just let us hit it.

They don't care about anything except Trump and power anymore, so they really don't care if they burn with the rest of us so long as they get to be in charge
 
2021-09-28 9:28:17 PM  

TDWCom29: BolloxReader: NotARocketScientist: Shortly after the republicans succeed in not raising the debt ceiling so the government can pay their bills. The fallout from that is going to be catastrophic.

/fiscally responsible my ass

Naw. The Constitution requires the federal government to pay it's debt. If nothing else they can rely on that to do so while things play out politically.

The debt ceiling technically is probably constitutional as an implied thing but only if it doesn't mess with things actually written into the Constitution. And the debt ceiling is only there because Congress allows it to be. It is a negotiation tool. This time it isn't being used for negotiation so it has no further utility. A reconciliation bill can deal with the debt ceiling.

Until 2023 when the (probably) Republican controlled Congress decides to just let us hit it.

They don't care about anything except Trump and power anymore, so they really don't care if they burn with the rest of us so long as they get to be in charge


Actually, now that I think of it, they were fighting farking with Trump over the debt ceiling. One of the only times Trump ever actually worked with Democrats was to raise the ceiling a few years ago. So yeah, we're farked in a couple of years
 
2021-09-28 9:44:43 PM  

TDWCom29: Lusiphur: skinink: (About the novel "Snow Crash")

"The story opens in Los Angeles in the 21st century, an unspecified number of years after a worldwide economic collapse. Los Angeles is no longer part of the United States, since the federal government has ceded most of its power and territory to private organizations and entrepreneurs.[5] Franchising, individual sovereignty, and private vehicles reign supreme. Mercenary armies compete for national defense contracts, while private security guards preserve the peace in sovereign, gated housing developments. Highway companies compete to attract drivers to their roads, and all mail delivery is by hired courier. The remnants of government maintain authority only in isolated compounds, where they do tedious make-work that is, by and large, irrelevant to the society around them.

Much of the world's territory has been carved up into sovereign enclaves, each run by its own big business franchise (such as "Mr. Lee's Greater Hong Kong", or the corporatized American Mafia), or various residential burbclaves - quasi-sovereign gated communities."

I'm going to be the world's first topian science fiction author. It's the future, things aren't great, but they're not terrible either, and most things are exactly the same as now.

That's the premise of Futurama


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-29 4:49:32 AM  
For those who are convinced that China can never overtake the US: keep in mind that Japan & Japanese manufacturing used to be a joke too - -  until it wasn't.

They stated eating the breakfast, lunch & dinner of the US car industry. The only reason they haven't crushed us completely by now is that they only have a 1/3 of the population that the US has.

Unlike China.
 
2021-09-29 7:35:42 AM  

Northern: Let's see which tanks faster, one because of Xis massive ego, the other because we in the USA have abandoned reason and celebrate mediocrity and corruption.


China is on the upswing so i'm guessing the US will tank faster.
 
2021-09-29 7:36:35 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-29 8:31:08 AM  

Excelsior: For those who are convinced that China can never overtake the US: keep in mind that Japan & Japanese manufacturing used to be a joke too - -  until it wasn't.

They stated eating the breakfast, lunch & dinner of the US car industry. The only reason they haven't crushed us completely by now is that they only have a 1/3 of the population that the US has.

Unlike China.


Japan had a massive real estate crash, like China migh be experiencing soon:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

The current price of an apartment in Beijing relative to income is 5 times what it is in New York.  That's a bubble.  And then Japan endured two lost decades.

Japan also has a smaller number of workers attempting to support a larger number of retirees, like China.

China could certainly be number one based on population alone because it only needs incremental rises in GDP per capita to do it, but it's not guaranteed and the timeline is definitely uncertain.
 
2021-09-29 1:17:56 PM  
TFA Headline: When will China overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy? Maybe never

media.newyorker.comView Full Size
 
2021-09-29 11:10:08 PM  

BMFPitt: Not likely to happen at all.

China is about to get wrecked by a demographic catastrophe like nobody has ever seen.

[Fark user image image 425x357]


It will happen just not as soon as it otherwise might have.

With 4 times the US population they only need 25% of the US per capita GDP to have the same size economy.
 
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