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(NPR)   Germany's election is shaping up to be a three-way affair   (npr.org) divider line
    More: PSA, Social Democratic Party of Germany, Christian Democratic Union, Democracy, Gerhard Schrder, Germany, Social democracy, largest parties, preliminary results  
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515 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Sep 2021 at 12:35 AM (3 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-09-27 12:44:35 AM  
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2021-09-27 12:45:04 AM  
I hope everybody gets the attention they need. Things always fall apart when two parties are way more into each other than they are into the third.
 
2021-09-27 12:51:54 AM  
Nothing kinky AND German has ever been good news.

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2021-09-27 1:09:20 AM  
BREAKING: GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS LEAKED

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2021-09-27 2:16:44 AM  
its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?
 
2021-09-27 3:34:51 AM  
Doesn't Germany's constitutional court have the authority to ban AfD? Or have they yet to cross whatever line is necessary to bring them before that court?
 
2021-09-27 3:46:34 AM  

pheed: Doesn't Germany's constitutional court have the authority to ban AfD? Or have they yet to cross whatever line is necessary to bring them before that court?


As long as their party platform does not include overthrowing the government with a dictatorship then they are allowed to be there.

No way in hell are they ever getting my vote though. Mostly because I'm just a permanent resident and can't vote.
 
2021-09-27 3:46:53 AM  

pheed: Doesn't Germany's constitutional court have the authority to ban AfD? Or have they yet to cross whatever line is necessary to bring them before that court?


Ironically enough, it is a learning from the Third Reich that allowing anyone to ban political parties willy-nilly is a bad idea, so the criteria for banning a party are really bloody strict.
Unfortunately that rule has to be applied fairly to Hitler's heirs too :-/
 
2021-09-27 3:51:38 AM  

Father_Jack: its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?


The Linke got in by the skin of their teeth
 
2021-09-27 4:02:20 AM  

Father_Jack: its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?


They could continue the GroKo (with an SPD Chancellor this time) but they really really REALLY don't want to. And both partys need the Greens and the FDP (Libertarians) otherwise. So it's going to be a shiatshow for the next three month.
 
2021-09-27 4:07:28 AM  

RPBN: No way in hell are they ever getting my vote though. Mostly because I'm just a permanent resident and can't vote.


you ever gonna become passdeutsch?

i am DYING To get an EU passport, but i'm pissed how long they make you wait here and that you cand have dual without a lot of lawyering.

germany wants us good foreigners who will pay for their asses as they age out of the workforce, and i'm soooo glad to be here, dont get me wrong. I cant imagine the compensation package it would take to get me to leave for the US again. But cmon do they have to make it such an uphill slog to get the pass?

i still have relatives in the US and business there; i cant surrender the US one even if i'd want to.
 
2021-09-27 4:09:06 AM  
Here comes the scat.
 
2021-09-27 6:32:05 AM  

Father_Jack: RPBN: No way in hell are they ever getting my vote though. Mostly because I'm just a permanent resident and can't vote.

you ever gonna become passdeutsch?

i am DYING To get an EU passport, but i'm pissed how long they make you wait here and that you cand have dual without a lot of lawyering.

germany wants us good foreigners who will pay for their asses as they age out of the workforce, and i'm soooo glad to be here, dont get me wrong. I cant imagine the compensation package it would take to get me to leave for the US again. But cmon do they have to make it such an uphill slog to get the pass?

i still have relatives in the US and business there; i cant surrender the US one even if i'd want to.


permanent German resident here, I'm hoping germany allows dual citizenship one of these days
 
2021-09-27 6:37:41 AM  

Father_Jack: its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?


Another Große Koalition would have the necessary seats, but neither CDU/CSU (center-right) nor SPD (center-left) want a re-run of that.

The GroKo has been the governing coalition since 2013. In the 2017 election, CDU/CSU lost 8.6%, SPD lost 5.2%. After those losses, SPD vowed not to be part of another GroKo, but when it turned out that CDU/CSU couldn't manage to form a govenment without them, they caved in, so another GroKo it was. In the current 2021 election, SPD gained 5.2%, equalizing their previous losses, but CDU/CSU lost another 8.8%, leading to their worst result ever.

Politicians interpret this as the Germans being sick and tired of the GroKo and that if they were to rehash that, they'd all get massacred in the 2025 election. It looks like they'll do everything in their power to avoid it.
 
2021-09-27 7:03:03 AM  

Europos: Father_Jack: its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?

They could continue the GroKo (with an SPD Chancellor this time) but they really really REALLY don't want to. And both partys need the Greens and the FDP (Libertarians) otherwise. So it's going to be a shiatshow for the next three month.


True. FDP and Greens have somewhat opposing views w.r.t economy so it'll be hard for them to find common ground for a coalition. If they should manage to, they could pretty much pick and choose on which party to bestow the chancellery - which leads right to the next snag: FDP much prefers CDU/CSU, the Greens much prefer SPD. Both parties would have to move a lot from their core positions to form a coalition, at the risk of alienating their rank-and-file party members.

Won't be easy to form a coalition from this election result, but as the saying goes, politics makes strange bedfellows.
 
2021-09-27 9:49:40 AM  

Father_Jack: its disappointing to see the AfD doing as well as they did, but at least those morons in the Linke got pasted.

with the CDU SPD eking out 50%, do they need a 3rd party to make the coalition or is 2 enough then?


They have about 400 seats (majority is 368) as a grand coalition option but as I understand it, it's seen as unlikely they want to continue the arrangements.

There cannot be a majority government without either the SDP or the CDU, and they've all ruled out working with AfD.

Some possible bare majority coalition arrangements, and the three most likely, are:

Traffic Light (SDP + Green + FDP): 416
This will be difficult and protracted as to come to a final agreement. How the free marketeers and environmentalists will play nicely will require big, big compromises on both sides. About the only thing in common is their legalisation of cannabis policies. The FDP have signalled they prefer to work with the CDP, but would work with the SDP and Greens if they can mitigate their tax and spend policies. So this is theirs to decline. How far the SDP will go and how much the Greens will sacrifice for a hand on the levers of power remains to be seen.

Grand Coalition (SDP + CDP): 402
This sets up the SDP for a drubbing next time at the hands of Greens voters who switched to stop the CDP forming government, and best politically avoided. But, it remains the default option should other talks fail, and if done as a last resort to avoid a new election. There's not much appetite left for this.

Jamaican (CDP + Green + FDP): 406
Given the good left wing result, the Greens could lose significant support by going for this. The FDP have signalled this is their first choice, but also that there is a big policy gap with the Greens. So this is the Greens' to decline, and I think they likely would.

A left wing coalition of SDP, Greens and Linke is also five seats short of a majority. If all else fails, a fragile minority government could happen. That possibility could encourage the FDP to come on board a traffic light coalition just to stop a drift to the left.

The only certainty is Angela Merkel will remain as caretaker chancellor, and it will be unlikely there will be a replacement before Christmas. This means she will overtake Helmut Kohl's record as longest serving modern Chancellor if she is there on 17 December.

If coalition talks fail, there could be a new election, or a Chancellor candidate appointed if they get a majority of votes outside a coalition - say, with AfD support - or failing this the candidate with the most, but not majority, of votes in Parliament could be appointed Chancellor by the President.

It's a little bit of a mess, frankly.
 
2021-09-27 1:39:04 PM  
Viable coalitions:

Kenia: SPD+CDU+Grüne (Center-Left)
Grand Coalition: SPD+CDU (Center)
Traffic Light: SPD+Grüne+FDP (Center-Left to Left)
Jamaica: CDU+Grüne+FDP (Center-Right)
Deutschland: CDU+SPD+FDP (Center-Right to Right)
 
2021-09-27 2:21:36 PM  
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2021-09-28 3:22:03 AM  

Father_Jack: RPBN: No way in hell are they ever getting my vote though. Mostly because I'm just a permanent resident and can't vote.

you ever gonna become passdeutsch?

i am DYING To get an EU passport, but i'm pissed how long they make you wait here and that you cand have dual without a lot of lawyering.

germany wants us good foreigners who will pay for their asses as they age out of the workforce, and i'm soooo glad to be here, dont get me wrong. I cant imagine the compensation package it would take to get me to leave for the US again. But cmon do they have to make it such an uphill slog to get the pass?

i still have relatives in the US and business there; i cant surrender the US one even if i'd want to.


I plan on getting  German Citizenship I just haven't gotten around to it yet. Really all I need to do is take the citizenship test since I meet all of the other requirements.
 
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