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(Detroit Free Press)   Chip shortage to cost the car industry $210 billion. Dip futures slump alarmingly as well   (freep.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Automotive industry, General Motors, ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips, GM President MarkReuss, Ford Motor Company, chip production, new report, chips crisis  
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385 clicks; posted to Business » on 23 Sep 2021 at 5:20 PM (9 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-09-23 5:01:23 PM  
On Tuesday, GM President Mark Reuss said the chip supply will likely stabilize at lower-than-normal levels.

Something I thought about late last year and earlier this year. We will still see new cars, new computers, new graphics cards, new devices but the amounts produced will shrink. This will increase demand enough to raise prices and put them out of reach for more people. We will see a striation of classes emerge more clearly.
 
2021-09-23 5:05:10 PM  
Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components
 
2021-09-23 5:28:21 PM  
Then China attacks Taiwan and the entire industry is borked.
 
2021-09-23 5:42:20 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size



did it sound just........ LIKE..... THIIIIIISSSS???!??!
 
2021-09-23 5:58:24 PM  

Nadie_AZ: On Tuesday, GM President Mark Reuss said the chip supply will likely stabilize at lower-than-normal levels.

Something I thought about late last year and earlier this year. We will still see new cars, new computers, new graphics cards, new devices but the amounts produced will shrink. This will increase demand enough to raise prices and put them out of reach for more people. We will see a striation of classes emerge more clearly.


Well, yeah. Every economist worth anything has described exactly that as the eventual fall of capitalism. At some point nobody will be able to afford anything except a few thousand people and then it's over, somebody get the lights.
 
2021-09-23 6:17:36 PM  

AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components


Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?
 
2021-09-23 6:25:19 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

Full Analog System
No Electronics
No Computers
800+ Horsepower
0 to 60 in .5 sec
 
2021-09-23 7:07:13 PM  
Well, I'm sorry, but I just didn't want to work in the semiconductor industry anymore.  So I quit in May 2020, not realizing the full consequences...

// and now I hear they're reopening the Hudson Intel plant (used to handle 200mm wafers)
 
2021-09-23 7:23:52 PM  

OptionC: AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components

Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?


The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...

One thing is for sure, world demand for chips is farking insatiable. You want them, the kids want them, everybody wants them.  Who knows how old-school auto procurement guys would have gone about getting chips.  They sure did a bang-up job with the airbag inflators, no pun intended.
 
2021-09-23 7:26:28 PM  
Shortage of chips, surplus of dip
Fark user imageView Full Size

Maybe one could "buy the dip" now (it's super cheap)
...and you'll have it in the future, when you may need it...
 
2021-09-23 7:29:50 PM  
You need Queso *and* guacamole *and* Marzetti's ranch.  The chip supply chain will just rocket from there, trust me.
 
2021-09-23 7:46:21 PM  
3.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size
 
2021-09-23 7:58:06 PM  
No worry, we can use the vacuum tube equivalent of these chips ('valves' for you brits).

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-23 8:02:51 PM  

Hate Tank: OptionC: AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components

Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?

The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...

One thing is for sure, world demand for chips is farking insatiable. You want them, the kids want them, everybody wants them.  Who knows how old-school auto procurement guys would have gone about getting chips.  They sure did a bang-up job with the airbag inflators, no pun intended.


It's also their refusal to use chip tech newer than the late 80s for most things
 
2021-09-23 8:58:57 PM  

Hate Tank: OptionC: AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components

Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?

The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...


Hyundai and Kia picked up the slack while the other OEMs cut back.

https://www.reuters.com/article/autos​-​semiconductors-hyundai-motor-idCNL4N2K​T3ZJ
 
2021-09-23 9:06:06 PM  

dumbobruni: Hate Tank: OptionC: AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components

Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?

The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...

Hyundai and Kia picked up the slack while the other OEMs cut back.

https://www.reuters.com/article/autos-​semiconductors-hyundai-motor-idCNL4N2K​T3ZJ


Smart procurement people that overrode the instinct that everyone else followed.

All the automakers are going to be able to benefit from increased car prices, but Hy/Kia and Toyota are going to have the best opportunity to capitalize.
 
2021-09-23 9:32:03 PM  

Hate Tank: The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...

One thing is for sure, world demand for chips is farking insatiable. You want them, the kids want them, everybody wants them.  Who knows how old-school auto procurement guys would have gone about getting chips.  They sure did a bang-up job with the airbag inflators, no pun intended.


To be fair, this isn't a mild stress.  The article points out that it's not just chip shortages, it's steel shortages, resin shortages, chemical shortages as well as labor shortages to contend with... which don't impact the auto-makers directly, but they do impact the factories that feed them.

Our warehouse used to have a policy that if a customer got an order in by noon it would be on a truck that day over 99% of the time for our products, private label stuff obviously had to be manufactured on demand.  Now one of our lines has a 2 month backorder.
 
2021-09-23 10:11:18 PM  

Nadie_AZ: On Tuesday, GM President Mark Reuss said the chip supply will likely stabilize at lower-than-normal levels.

Something I thought about late last year and earlier this year. We will still see new cars, new computers, new graphics cards, new devices but the amounts produced will shrink. This will increase demand enough to raise prices and put them out of reach for more people. We will see a striation of classes emerge more clearly.


LOL. Do you know that Nvidia and AMD made more graphics cards over the past year, than they ever made before for a similar time period?

This isn't a shortage, as much as it is a run on demand. If car makers weren't trying to push the latest technology, combined with terrible accounting practices of trying to predict demand (and failing miserably on the low end), they'd have plenty of chips. Until around 20 years ago, EVERYTHING computerized in cars was built on tech at least a decade or more old. Infotainment systems, driver assist systems and such have narrowed that tech gap, but does GM really need 5nm chips to get trucks into dealerships? Are those chips even suitable for the conditions automakers demand (temperature ranges, humidity, electrical variances)?

At any rate, calling this a "shortage" paints the whole thing the wrong way. They've made more chips than ever, but unprecedented demand, and poor planning on the auto makers' part to book demand is why there is a crisis.
 
2021-09-23 10:12:26 PM  

recondite cetacean: You need Queso *and* guacamole *and* Marzetti's ranch.  The chip supply chain will just rocket from there, trust me.


Chorizo in your dip?
If not, that's a deal breaker.
 
2021-09-23 10:40:37 PM  

LesserEvil: This isn't a shortage, as much as it is a run on demand. If car makers weren't trying to push the latest technology, combined with terrible accounting practices of trying to predict demand (and failing miserably on the low end), they'd have plenty of chips. Until around 20 years ago, EVERYTHING computerized in cars was built on tech at least a decade or more old. Infotainment systems, driver assist systems and such have narrowed that tech gap, but does GM really need 5nm chips to get trucks into dealerships? Are those chips even suitable for the conditions automakers demand (temperature ranges, humidity, electrical variances)?


It's actually the opposite. The automakers want chips in old legacy nodes. The thing is, there's not many of those, and there's no profit in building new ones. They would actually have less of a problem if they wanted 5nm chips.
 
2021-09-24 12:04:34 AM  
No chip needed, will last forever

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-24 12:17:27 AM  

whither_apophis: No chip needed, will last forever

[Fark user image 322x272]


Someone will be sitting in it with the engine running, delaying the heat death of the universe.
 
2021-09-24 12:38:01 AM  

AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components


It's not even that. It's far far stupider. See, in order to appease the gods of "this is the only quarter that matters," automakers are still using chip architecture that was state of the art around the mid-2000's, or at least the Big 3 are. Because it's expensive to certify new tech and design new systems, and the old old old tech was working ok, I guess.

So these old chips are made in foundries that don't even resemble modern ones. It's a completely different process, and all of the demand basically comes just from automakers, who pay shiat prices and order low quantities with no long term commitments and contracts that required everything to be done exactly to their spec and on their timeline. Basically, the worst clients you can imagine, asking for survival orders of shiat no one makes anymore.

So now, chip makers have finally said enough is enough, and aren't willing to invest any money into producing these chips that were already obsolete by the first Obama administration. They have plenty of capacity to cheaply manufacture just slightly obsolete chips from a couple generations ago. Those fabs are still up and running, the chips are more than good enough for automotive spec, and they could get production going yesterday. The only problem is that automakers would need to invest some money into modernizing their control systems - just a couple billion at most. But like everything the Big 3 do, they're going to sit there and cry and stamp their feet and insist the government bail them out rather than invest anything into modernizing.

It's literally the same shiat that has happened to automakers every farking decade like clockwork.
 
2021-09-24 2:18:02 AM  

Lusiphur: See, in order to appease the gods of "this is the only quarter that matters," automakers are still using chip architecture that was state of the art around the mid-2000's, or at least the Big 3 are. Because it's expensive to certify new tech and design new systems, and the old old old tech was working ok, I guess.


Eh, it's not quite that bad - the problem is that car design cycles are much longer than semiconductor design cycles.  A car company wants to design a car in year N-2, launch in year N and produce roughly the same design until year N+5 or so before putting car++ into production.   Electronics upgrades can certainly happen within the lifecycle of a given design but there's limits as to how extensive that will be - for infotainment, they'll stretch; for ECU, not so much - the team just isn't there to design it in and validate it because they are working on car++.

Car companies are always going to be at a disadvantage compared to pure silicon companies and that's kinda ok?  It makes the older foundries useful and might encourage the major fab companies to overbuild going forward and relieve these sorts of shortages in the future...
 
2021-09-24 3:04:50 AM  

trialpha: LesserEvil: This isn't a shortage, as much as it is a run on demand. If car makers weren't trying to push the latest technology, combined with terrible accounting practices of trying to predict demand (and failing miserably on the low end), they'd have plenty of chips. Until around 20 years ago, EVERYTHING computerized in cars was built on tech at least a decade or more old. Infotainment systems, driver assist systems and such have narrowed that tech gap, but does GM really need 5nm chips to get trucks into dealerships? Are those chips even suitable for the conditions automakers demand (temperature ranges, humidity, electrical variances)?

It's actually the opposite. The automakers want chips in old legacy nodes. The thing is, there's not many of those, and there's no profit in building new ones. They would actually have less of a problem if they wanted 5nm chips.


Truth. Automakers had a decade of semiconductor companies trying to cater to their specific needs, building specific chips, in order to lock in business. Then all those semiconductor companies starting merging. Now nobody wants to bother with producing those custom, low-end, automotive-rated micros and the auto industry is stuck re-engineering all of those designs. But EEs are expensive too.
 
2021-09-24 11:32:39 AM  

AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components


Time might be ripe to re-introduce chip production in the Western Hemisphere.  The chance to white-sheet production techniques doesn't come very day.
 
2021-09-24 11:39:39 AM  

OptionC: Lusiphur: See, in order to appease the gods of "this is the only quarter that matters," automakers are still using chip architecture that was state of the art around the mid-2000's, or at least the Big 3 are. Because it's expensive to certify new tech and design new systems, and the old old old tech was working ok, I guess.

Eh, it's not quite that bad - the problem is that car design cycles are much longer than semiconductor design cycles.  A car company wants to design a car in year N-2, launch in year N and produce roughly the same design until year N+5 or so before putting car++ into production.   Electronics upgrades can certainly happen within the lifecycle of a given design but there's limits as to how extensive that will be - for infotainment, they'll stretch; for ECU, not so much - the team just isn't there to design it in and validate it because they are working on car++.

Car companies are always going to be at a disadvantage compared to pure silicon companies and that's kinda ok?  It makes the older foundries useful and might encourage the major fab companies to overbuild going forward and relieve these sorts of shortages in the future...


Except in this case it literally is that bad. They're currently using 45-90 nanometer silicone. No one makes it anymore, and it was already out of date when they last made the switch. And no one wants to invest in capacity because this is so outdated that car companies are literally the only customers left, and they're terrible customers.

Intel and other chip makers has been begging them to move to 16 nanometer silicone (still outdated, but only a bit) because there's tons of available capacity there - the fabs are still up and running, for the most part, and virtually no one else is buying them so they can be had for basically just as cheap as the old 45-90 ones.
 
2021-09-24 11:47:34 AM  

whither_apophis: No chip needed, will last forever

[Fark user image 322x272]


Owner freezes to death in winter, ready for new owner for the spring.
 
2021-09-24 1:55:06 PM  

trialpha: LesserEvil: This isn't a shortage, as much as it is a run on demand. If car makers weren't trying to push the latest technology, combined with terrible accounting practices of trying to predict demand (and failing miserably on the low end), they'd have plenty of chips. Until around 20 years ago, EVERYTHING computerized in cars was built on tech at least a decade or more old. Infotainment systems, driver assist systems and such have narrowed that tech gap, but does GM really need 5nm chips to get trucks into dealerships? Are those chips even suitable for the conditions automakers demand (temperature ranges, humidity, electrical variances)?

It's actually the opposite. The automakers want chips in old legacy nodes. The thing is, there's not many of those, and there's no profit in building new ones. They would actually have less of a problem if they wanted 5nm chips.


Maybe, but it doesn't change the fact that the "shortages" they are experiencing are just a result of poor planning at the highest management levels of those companies.

They gambled that the pandemic would slow sales, and were shocked when people decided spending a year or two working from home would be the ideal time to upgrade to a leased vehicle and take advantage of the savings in mileage to enjoy a better ride.
 
2021-09-24 2:31:34 PM  

AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components


1988: You're a burnout hippie from the 60s.  Pffftt.  China is no different than the USA and you don't understand how free trade will cause massive wage gains for average Americans.  Information age!
2021: Fill more sand bags and protect the ballots.  Trump is gonna return in two weeks.  Don't bogart the ivermectin, and use only one square of toilet paper.  I blame the Jews and blacks, not the fact that I'm an ignorant moron.
2024: Pathetic
 
2021-09-24 5:18:36 PM  

Nonrepeating Rotating Binary: whither_apophis: No chip needed, will last forever

[Fark user image 322x272]

Someone will be sitting in it with the engine running, delaying the heat death of the universe.


Not that's just the burning magnesium gearbox casing
 
2021-09-24 5:34:39 PM  

DORMAMU: Hate Tank: OptionC: AlgaeRancher: Something to be said for not outsourcing critical components

Are car companies supposed to get into the semiconductor fabrication business?

The car companies lost out when they cancelled their orders last year.  And because they are low volume.  So I guess the answer is... maybe.  Or they could try not nickel and diming the fabs (TSMC etc.) that control their lifeblood.  Or they could stockpile more chips, but then they risk having warehouses of obsolete chips.  Just in time manufacturing, not so simple when the system is put under mild stress apparently...

One thing is for sure, world demand for chips is farking insatiable. You want them, the kids want them, everybody wants them.  Who knows how old-school auto procurement guys would have gone about getting chips.  They sure did a bang-up job with the airbag inflators, no pun intended.

It's also their refusal to use chip tech newer than the late 80s for most things


And what's wrong with that?

A lot of these systems use pretty simple pointer logic with a FPGA setup to do the heavy lifting.

Plus now with so many peripheral IC's being so "smart" you simply don't have to make your processor hold each processes hand as much any more.

You simply don't need the power.

Plus I've noticed it's just just high(ish) end it's: things like FET arrays and optoisolators and getting a little harder to get. I had to do a board redesign a few weeks ago to deal with this reality.
 
2021-09-24 5:42:24 PM  

Lusiphur: OptionC: Lusiphur: See, in order to appease the gods of "this is the only quarter that matters," automakers are still using chip architecture that was state of the art around the mid-2000's, or at least the Big 3 are. Because it's expensive to certify new tech and design new systems, and the old old old tech was working ok, I guess.

Eh, it's not quite that bad - the problem is that car design cycles are much longer than semiconductor design cycles.  A car company wants to design a car in year N-2, launch in year N and produce roughly the same design until year N+5 or so before putting car++ into production.   Electronics upgrades can certainly happen within the lifecycle of a given design but there's limits as to how extensive that will be - for infotainment, they'll stretch; for ECU, not so much - the team just isn't there to design it in and validate it because they are working on car++.

Car companies are always going to be at a disadvantage compared to pure silicon companies and that's kinda ok?  It makes the older foundries useful and might encourage the major fab companies to overbuild going forward and relieve these sorts of shortages in the future...

Except in this case it literally is that bad. They're currently using 45-90 nanometer silicone. No one makes it anymore, and it was already out of date when they last made the switch. And no one wants to invest in capacity because this is so outdated that car companies are literally the only customers left, and they're terrible customers.

Intel and other chip makers has been begging them to move to 16 nanometer silicone (still outdated, but only a bit) because there's tons of available capacity there - the fabs are still up and running, for the most part, and virtually no one else is buying them so they can be had for basically just as cheap as the old 45-90 ones.


Could you move a 8051 based microcontroller down to 16nm, resist the urge to "upgrade" it, package it correctly and still sell it for a profit?

Are there any downsides here? (Say ic to pin connections?)

No snark, I'm not familiar with the semiconductor industry and it's ins and outs.
 
2021-09-24 7:01:55 PM  
Wait a minute here.  Are we seriously believing that automakers are the only ones using these chips?  What's the logic control in a furnace or washing machine?  A Keurig?  A cordless drill?
 
2021-09-25 1:18:36 AM  

whither_apophis: No chip needed, will last forever

[Fark user image 322x272]


Why is it parked in two spaces and on the grass?
 
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