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(Twitter)   Let's use Obama's time machine and go back to August and see what Nate had to say about the recall efforts in California   (twitter.com) divider line
    More: Awkward, shot  
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3852 clicks; posted to Politics » on 15 Sep 2021 at 12:04 PM (11 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-09-15 9:41:36 AM  
Original Tweet:

 
2021-09-15 10:42:43 AM  

Original: Original Tweet:

NateSilver538: It's self-destructive more than self-interested. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled. Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead they're telling them not to vote on the replacement! https://t.co/tCjNUITafB


Fourteen minutes, Nate.
 
2021-09-15 10:44:22 AM  
Hey Nate...
c.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2021-09-15 10:52:58 AM  
He's such a dumbass.
 
2021-09-15 10:59:33 AM  
The political media had a hard-on for another Democratic intra-party fight. In the end, Dems look smarter for not taking the bait.

Image full campaigns being run by other Dem candidates.

1) It would signal that Newsom should be removed.
2) It would allow another high profile pissing match between party factions.
3) Dems would have been more likely to vote YES, and try to get their preferred candidate as the replacement

End result would have been a much higher chance of recall being approved with Elder @ 40+ and multiple Dems trailing
 
2021-09-15 11:00:59 AM  

Walker: He's such a dumbass.


He should probably stick to sports.
 
2021-09-15 11:28:49 AM  
I wonder how he's faring after yet another of his predictions being thoroughly stomped on?

Fark user imageView Full Size


Oh.  Well.  Better luck next time, Nate.  Or the time after that.  Or ... well, you're bound to be right about something one of these days, right?  I mean, a fraction of a percent chance is still a chance.
 
2021-09-15 12:01:24 PM  
I mean, the polling changed a bunch between then & now.

Also Nate is a dumb-farking-ass about a number of subjects, notably COVID-19.
 
2021-09-15 12:07:07 PM  

Psychopusher: I wonder how he's faring after yet another of his predictions being thoroughly stomped on?

[Fark user image image 273x172]

Oh.  Well.  Better luck next time, Nate.  Or the time after that.  Or ... well, you're bound to be right about something one of these days, right?  I mean, a fraction of a percent chance is still a chance.


Man has been coasting on his predictions for 2008 and 2012; sorry Nate, but you gotta keep pumping out W's if you want to be taken seriously as someone who foretells the outcome.
 
2021-09-15 12:07:11 PM  
Maybe humans just can't be good at something creative like predictions as well as something logical like statistics. And maybe Silver isn't smart enough to know it.
 
2021-09-15 12:07:37 PM  
I loudly said the CA dems were wrong about this. I was wrong. Good work.

Also, 538's polling averages were pretty spot on here.
 
2021-09-15 12:07:59 PM  
Gosh... it's almost like people saw the situation, figured that it wasn't good, and worked to change it.


Naww, that never happens. Nate must have been bonkers.
 
2021-09-15 12:08:43 PM  
Can we start a line to punch Nate in the face. We could charge, and all proceeds go to charity.
 
2021-09-15 12:10:18 PM  
It seems that Nate's been staring at numbers for so long, he's forgotten that the numbers actually represent something.
 
2021-09-15 12:10:22 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-15 12:12:05 PM  
Nate is kinda like the reverse of the ' you fark one goat' joke
 
2021-09-15 12:13:13 PM  
He didn't say anything untrue
 
2021-09-15 12:13:36 PM  
Just a few weeks ago the race was much closer than it turned out to be. Then Elder opened his mouth and people in Cali realized they didn't want their own version of Dotard in charge of their state.
 
2021-09-15 12:15:09 PM  
So his latest prediction was in August?  And nothing of note happened in the month since?

There's valid criticism,and then there's bashing.
 
2021-09-15 12:17:09 PM  
Farkers in this thread tearing apart Nate Silver for not being perfect in predictions or questioning Democratic election strategies are so irrationally angry

Seriously when the hell did people start advocating violence for being wrong or having an election strategy opinion.

Y'all need to lighten up, wipe the foam from your rapies mouths, and take a deep breath
 
2021-09-15 12:17:18 PM  
that's a lot of conjecture and speculation. I thought Nate was only about data
 
2021-09-15 12:17:46 PM  
I have to agree with Nate on this one. Leaving №2 blank was a bad idea, because then, if ℕ1 "Yes" got the majority, you'd get no say in the replacement Governor, and that'd take votes away from someone who might actually be able to get more than Elder if the Dems rallied behind him.

With Diane Feinstein stubbornly holding onto her seat despite failing health (she should've resigned as soon as the recall idea was being batted about and let Newsom appoint her temporary replacement) and with the Senate tied and with Moscow Miatch waiting to get back into the master control seat, there was too much at stake to leave it to chance.

Kevin Paffrath was polling about equal to Elder in the lead-up to the election. If all the other Dems on the ballot had dropped out and endorsed Newsom to remain by voting No, but also endorsed Paffrath as the alternate just in case, that would've provided an additional cushion to Elder getting to appoint Feinstein's replacement should her failing health not hold out.

More voted blank on №2 than voted for Elder. Those were almost certainly nearly all if not absolutely all Democrats following the state party's bad advice. So if even most of those had voted for Paffrath and if by some horrible curse "Yes" got the majority on ℕ1 causing the recall to succeed, at least it wouldn't be Elder or any other Republican who'd be appointing Feinstein's successor. Elder would still have been soundly trounced.
 
2021-09-15 12:18:08 PM  

Walker: He's such a dumbass.


He is good at his statistical analysis. He is just as bad as most political commentators when he strays out of his lane and tries to comment on politics. Stick to the numbers. They are why you have a job.
 
2021-09-15 12:18:41 PM  
So he said "pretty good chance", and everyone is losing their shiat? Hell, Fark seemed to think he was gonna get recalled, too.
 
2021-09-15 12:19:09 PM  

anfrind: It seems that Nate's been staring at numbers for so long, he's forgotten that the numbers actually represent something.


I would have almost offered the opposite on him. He forgets that numbers aren't real.  They are merely representations. This goes especially for statistics.

/ Professor at front of lecture hall said that before you entered the room.
 
2021-09-15 12:19:42 PM  
He's spent so many years crunching political numbers that he forgot that he's not actually a political strategist. He's a statistician.
 
2021-09-15 12:20:27 PM  
Not sure what's awkward about this?

I mean, if you completely ignore the context I guess it might sound like Nate is claiming Newsom will get recalled, but if you bother to read even just a little bit more he's really discussing the strategy of the Dems picking a potential replacement in an attempt to replace Newsom with another democrat. More specifically, he's saying it's stupid to not vote on question 2 regarding the replacement (question 1 being if Newsom should be recalled)

Further down the thread he basically said the chances were 70% to stay and 30% to get recalled (as an example). 30% is a "pretty decent chance" so yeah that's not unreasonable.
=Smidge=
 
2021-09-15 12:20:43 PM  

ElwoodCuse: that's a lot of conjecture and speculation. I thought Nate was only about data


He gets in to the math in a different tweet
 
2021-09-15 12:20:46 PM  
This means something.

*mashedpotatoes.jpg*
 
2021-09-15 12:20:52 PM  
Geez, I wonder what his stock portfolio looks like.
 
2021-09-15 12:20:59 PM  

Meatsim1: Farkers in this thread tearing apart Nate Silver for not being perfect in predictions or questioning Democratic election strategies are so irrationally angry

Seriously when the hell did people start advocating violence for being wrong or having an election strategy opinion.

Y'all need to lighten up, wipe the foam from your rapies mouths, and take a deep breath


Don't worry Nate, your mom still loves you.
 
2021-09-15 12:22:11 PM  
The more Larry Elder became the frontrunner to replace Newsom, the more people seemed to realize the recall was a really bad idea and so became motivated to vote 'No'.

I can cut Nate Silver some slack as predicting the outcomes of things that are unprecedented is not an easy task. That said, it would be better to simply say these kinds of things are unprecedented so predictions are little better than guessing so no predictions are offered.
 
2021-09-15 12:22:15 PM  
Newsom was self destructing at the time, but managed to get his shiat together. And we've had a month of the G.O.P. reminding everyone why they are so dangerous. So an election about Newsom became an election about Trump, Texas, and which party will have the Senate.
 
2021-09-15 12:22:33 PM  

GardenWeasel: The political media had a hard-on for another Democratic intra-party fight. In the end, Dems look smarter for not taking the bait.

Image full campaigns being run by other Dem candidates.

1) It would signal that Newsom should be removed.
2) It would allow another high profile pissing match between party factions.
3) Dems would have been more likely to vote YES, and try to get their preferred candidate as the replacement

End result would have been a much higher chance of recall being approved with Elder @ 40+ and multiple Dems trailing


Of course, if the Democratic Party had pushed a strong alternate candidate that people could rally behind that candidate could absolutely have challenged Elder. But instead the Democrats ensured there were no decent alternatives to Newsome.

If you can put up a strong alternative you can increase the odds of a Democrat remaining governor, but there are also other issues as well with it.

In the end, the methodology for the recall election is just awful and should not be used.
 
2021-09-15 12:23:42 PM  

COMALite J: I have to agree with Nate on this one. Leaving №2 blank was a bad idea, because then, if ℕ1 "Yes" got the majority, you'd get no say in the replacement Governor, and that'd take votes away from someone who might actually be able to get more than Elder if the Dems rallied behind him.

With Diane Feinstein stubbornly holding onto her seat despite failing health (she should've resigned as soon as the recall idea was being batted about and let Newsom appoint her temporary replacement) and with the Senate tied and with Moscow Miatch waiting to get back into the master control seat, there was too much at stake to leave it to chance.

Kevin Paffrath was polling about equal to Elder in the lead-up to the election. If all the other Dems on the ballot had dropped out and endorsed Newsom to remain by voting No, but also endorsed Paffrath as the alternate just in case, that would've provided an additional cushion to Elder getting to appoint Feinstein's replacement should her failing health not hold out.

More voted blank on №2 than voted for Elder. Those were almost certainly nearly all if not absolutely all Democrats following the state party's bad advice. So if even most of those had voted for Paffrath and if by some horrible curse "Yes" got the majority on ℕ1 causing the recall to succeed, at least it wouldn't be Elder or any other Republican who'd be appointing Feinstein's successor. Elder would still have been soundly trounced.


Gonna agree with you here. This is sort a Pascal's wager, with "Republican control of a Senate seat occupied by a nearly 90-year old woman" representing eternal damnation.
 
2021-09-15 12:24:54 PM  

Mikey1969: So he said "pretty good chance", and everyone is losing their shiat? Hell, Fark seemed to think he was gonna get recalled, too.


Fark is full of worry worts, Mikey.

Not to mention cynics.
 
2021-09-15 12:25:13 PM  
Yeah he's not wrong; but it's the way he puts it.

I don't think there's a good analogy here it's just stupid not to plan and people remember Gray Davis happened even though that was ducking stupid.
 
2021-09-15 12:26:16 PM  
Did Nate Silver really, really want to be a weatherman or something and didn't make the cut?

I'm just jealous of anyone with a career where one can be wrong 50% of the time and still make the coins.
 
2021-09-15 12:27:00 PM  

Psychopusher: I wonder how he's faring after yet another of his predictions being thoroughly stomped on?

[Fark user image image 273x172]

Oh.  Well.  Better luck next time, Nate.  Or the time after that.  Or ... well, you're bound to be right about something one of these days, right?  I mean, a fraction of a percent chance is still a chance.


I think we now have room for a Meta Nate Silver to dissect and prognosticate exclusively on the probabilities that things Prime Nate Silver predicts will happen, happen.
 
2021-09-15 12:27:40 PM  

Smidge204: Not sure what's awkward about this?

I mean, if you completely ignore the context I guess it might sound like Nate is claiming Newsom will get recalled, but if you bother to read even just a little bit more he's really discussing the strategy of the Dems picking a potential replacement in an attempt to replace Newsom with another democrat. More specifically, he's saying it's stupid to not vote on question 2 regarding the replacement (question 1 being if Newsom should be recalled)

Further down the thread he basically said the chances were 70% to stay and 30% to get recalled (as an example). 30% is a "pretty decent chance" so yeah that's not unreasonable.
=Smidge=


The only text that matters is the headline. The actual context is irrelevant, so Nate was wrong because I am too lazy to read.
 
2021-09-15 12:29:09 PM  
Silly weaklings, only Arnold has the powah to win a Total Recall victory...

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-15 12:29:15 PM  

DrunkenIrishOD: Yeah he's not wrong; but it's the way he puts it.

I don't think there's a good analogy here it's just stupid not to plan and people remember Gray Davis happened even though that was ducking stupid.


To self comment too, the way this is being spun in every headline alert I'm getting that Newsom survived the recall, No he nuked the recall from orbit. It wasn't close it was a waste of time and it's a good thing Cali has ease of voting and people participated . But even NPR was framing this is as 2022 is coming and people only retained him so they could primary him from the left...
 
2021-09-15 12:31:03 PM  
Was the polling only about the horse race, and not the actual recall vote?
 
2021-09-15 12:31:55 PM  

swankywanky: Did Nate Silver really, really want to be a weatherman or something and didn't make the cut?

I'm just jealous of anyone with a career where one can be wrong 50% of the time and still make the coins.


He's never really "wrong" though, he's only ever just presenting probabilities. You can argue his conclusions are incorrect, but he shows his work.
 
2021-09-15 12:33:25 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-09-15 12:33:39 PM  
Newsflash, Nate Silver said something last month that was in line with the data at the time, and stuff changed in the intervening time period as tons of resources were brought into the race and people realized that Larry Elder would be the most likely replacement, moving from a dead heat to a massive swing towards Newsom as events unfolded, as reflected in 538's data.

Ric Romero has more at 11.
 
2021-09-15 12:33:39 PM  

dsmith42: Walker: He's such a dumbass.

He is good at his statistical analysis. He is just as bad as most political commentators when he strays out of his lane and tries to comment on politics. Stick to the numbers. They are why you have a job.


Whatever attention he gets probably boosted turnout by Democratic voters who were scared shiatless of any Republican taking the governor's office.

Personally, I'd base my voting preference on almost anything except Nate Silver's bullshiat, but if it compelled any Dems to vote 'no' on the CA recall, then that's a good thing.
 
2021-09-15 12:33:43 PM  

GardenWeasel: The political media had a hard-on for another Democratic intra-party fight. In the end, Dems look smarter for not taking the bait.

Image full campaigns being run by other Dem candidates.

1) It would signal that Newsom should be removed.
2) It would allow another high profile pissing match between party factions.
3) Dems would have been more likely to vote YES, and try to get their preferred candidate as the replacement

End result would have been a much higher chance of recall being approved with Elder @ 40+ and multiple Dems trailing


This is the correct take.

Yes, numbers-wise and absent of its effects on everything else, you should suggest that everyone coalesce behind a secondary candidate.

However, in practice, you're spending resources as a party to get rid of your own guy, killing off any support for people to vote "no" on the recall, fighting among one another, and overall, you're only helping the GOP get power the only conceivable way they ever can: By ratf*ckery.
 
2021-09-15 12:34:58 PM  
California's state constitution is so farked up it makes the US constitution look like a blueprint for functional government.
 
2021-09-15 12:35:31 PM  

andrewagill: I mean, the polling changed a bunch between then & now.

Also Nate is a dumb-farking-ass about a number of subjects, notably COVID-19.


What has he said about Covid?
 
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