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(CNN)   Researchers want to start replacing the standard hurricane forecast cone with something called "zoomies" to increase the public's understanding of their actual risk, although why they can't just use a black Sharpie remains unclear   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Tropical cyclone, Precipitation, half weeks, sea surface temperatures, highest drought levels, Wind, probable track of the center of a tropical system, Rain  
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2593 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Aug 2021 at 11:04 PM (25 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-08-02 8:25:42 PM  
I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.
 
2021-08-02 8:28:15 PM  

Shostie: I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.


No. They're zoomies. Get with the program.
 
2021-08-02 8:32:36 PM  
Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.
 
2021-08-02 8:36:32 PM  
What do hot rod exhaust headers have to do with hurricanes?

I mean, apart from that whole global warming thing.
 
2021-08-02 8:39:59 PM  
Maybe combine the cone and the zoomz?
 
2021-08-02 8:41:56 PM  
media2.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2021-08-02 8:42:29 PM  
lexaloffle.comView Full Size
 
2021-08-02 8:57:33 PM  
It's simple now.
People are farking stupid and you can't change that.
 
2021-08-02 9:07:08 PM  

cretinbob: It's simple now.
People are farking stupid and you can't change that.


Now?
 
2021-08-02 9:15:28 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


This. The dog gets zoomies. The hurricane just farks you up.

I look at NHC for development, then switch to spaghetti models to plan if we're going to try to "jump" the boat out of the path, or sail into the swamp to tie up. My brain works well visualizing spaghetti predictions over time points.
 
2021-08-02 9:18:38 PM  
i always imagine the cone is the likely path the EYE will follow (but when a storm is really coming i always look at the spaghetti models) and the storm is always bigger than the eye. irma was over 400 miles across, it would have easily filled the space between tampa and new orleans. anyone who thinks the cone it the size of the storm has never lived through hurricane season.

so how to bouncing zoomie dots communicate storm risk better?
 
2021-08-02 9:29:00 PM  
also, they determined "zoomies" work by surveying random undergrads in pensacola and fort collins, CO?

have they considered that 20 YOs in those college communities may simply be bad at assessing risk in general, as most college students feel they are immortal and don't EVER think the hurricane is going to harm them personally? no matter if you show them a "cone of uncertainty" or some hip new "zoomie" dots?
 
2021-08-02 9:55:06 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-08-02 10:51:33 PM  
I always knew hurricanes were actually huskies in coat blow mode
 
2021-08-02 11:01:42 PM  
ZOOMIES THREAD!!!!!

When cat won't play, dog gives in to the zoomies
Youtube ulMkbFt2TNo
 
2021-08-02 11:08:29 PM  
The science behind this blows.
 
2021-08-02 11:10:39 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


I'm familiar with the phrase as regards kittens, which actually could be useful in tracking hurricanes or tornadoes.
 
2021-08-02 11:12:39 PM  
Aretha Franklin unavailable for comment.
 
2021-08-02 11:15:01 PM  
 
2021-08-02 11:19:35 PM  
POOOOPTHREAAAAAAD
 
2021-08-02 11:26:44 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


Puppies?!?!?  10 year old 90 lb. Rottweilers do this.
 
2021-08-02 11:37:17 PM  
Ok, Zoomers
 
2021-08-02 11:38:13 PM  
Wreckx N Effect - Rump Shaker
Youtube zdLvauICvPM
 
2021-08-02 11:39:28 PM  
i have always called it "the cone of certain death" now that gets attention !


/i actually live in Florida
//loads of fun at parties
 
2021-08-02 11:42:54 PM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


Cats do that too. I always called it "the rips".
 
2021-08-02 11:44:44 PM  
This is the NHC saying : "Scientific literacy is very low in the United States, we need to adapt to that."
 
2021-08-02 11:52:51 PM  
The issue I have with this plotting method is that it implies two dangerous things:
- that the danger is coming, as opposed to the danger is here.
- that the danger is fleeting and transient.

When a cone or spaghetti model is shown over your area you would feel that the danger is there and more likely to move, not that it is coming, which implies time. When the dots pass through an area and disappear again, it feels like the hurricane will just pass and disappear, while in reality it's effects and damage can last weeks (or longer, for those who can't afford to rebuild).

The only issue mentioned in the current cone is that people outside of the cone feel safe from the effects, which isn't true.

I'd suggest an alternative solution to widen the cone with a different. I.e. this is the expected movement (regular cone) and this extended area in a different color is the expected spill over area.
Having people see it over there areas right now would be more likely* to get people to feel the danger and act accordingly.

/*you will always have the Overly Optimistic who say let's wait and see if it changes for the better, the Distrustful Dissidents who've lost faith in weather forecasting because a decade ago they took emergency measures and very little happened, and last but not least, people who would attempt to ride out a Category 5 because they are "ready for it".
 
2021-08-02 11:53:24 PM  

puffy999: ZOOMIES THREAD!!!!!

[YouTube video: When cat won't play, dog gives in to the zoomies]


Mmmmokay

After bath time
Youtube UUDqRPH5j4I
 
2021-08-02 11:54:08 PM  

luna1580: i always imagine the cone is the likely path the EYE will follow (but when a storm is really coming i always look at the spaghetti models) and the storm is always bigger than the eye. irma was over 400 miles across, it would have easily filled the space between tampa and new orleans. anyone who thinks the cone it the size of the storm has never lived through hurricane season.

so how to bouncing zoomie dots communicate storm risk better?


The dots convey the geographic spread in severe storm behavior, not just the spread in the eye center track.
 
2021-08-02 11:55:44 PM  

luna1580: also, they determined "zoomies" work by surveying random undergrads in pensacola and fort collins, CO?

have they considered that 20 YOs in those college communities may simply be bad at assessing risk in general, as most college students feel they are immortal and don't EVER think the hurricane is going to harm them personally? no matter if you show them a "cone of uncertainty" or some hip new "zoomie" dots?


It probably has a lot more to do with no one explaining what the cone actually means, and the fact that what it means isn't very useful for risk assessment (who cares where the center of the eye is, people need to know where the winds and rain are).
 
2021-08-03 12:00:03 AM  
Or they could add a level of uncertainty at the boundaries and keep it as a still image so people can analyze the full picture at once instead of an animated loop.  It's far easier to understand that way.
 
2021-08-03 12:00:14 AM  
So, basically their proposal is to give people less information in a less accurate format, so that they pay more attention and perceive the risk as higher?

... that might work actually.  Personally hate it though.
 
2021-08-03 12:01:06 AM  
Zoomy zoomy zoom is acceptable.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-08-03 12:02:09 AM  

Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.


Well, there are "boom-y zoomies" inThe Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild, but that refers to wind bombs, and not everyone appreciates the term (looking at you, Limcube).

/I was assured that nothing is too obscure for fark...
 
2021-08-03 12:20:11 AM  

Shostie: I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.


Yeah, what they need to do is the cone but with probability lines rather than a hard edge.  I don't live in hurricane territory so I've never studied it, but I would have thought the cone was showing the area it had any reasonable likelihood of hitting, but from the article it seems the cone is probably one standard deviation only.
 
2021-08-03 12:29:29 AM  
Isn't zoomies some sort of shoe company?
 
2021-08-03 12:31:42 AM  

Loren: Shostie: I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.

Yeah, what they need to do is the cone but with probability lines rather than a hard edge.  I don't live in hurricane territory so I've never studied it, but I would have thought the cone was showing the area it had any reasonable likelihood of hitting, but from the article it seems the cone is probably one standard deviation only.


Well, the problem with all of this is that the focus is always on the wind... but unless it is a cat 5 or you are on a boat the wind isn't a big issue... what's important is the storm surge.
 
2021-08-03 12:55:14 AM  

balko: This is the NHC saying : "Scientific literacy is very low in the United States, we need to adapt to that."


"We've arranged a civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster."

― Carl Sagan

LIKE FROM QUITE A LONG farkING TIME AGO
 
2021-08-03 12:57:35 AM  

Pocket Ninja: Shostie: I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.

No. They're zoomies. Get with the program.


They're the Dippin' Dots of weather forecasting.
 
2021-08-03 1:09:46 AM  

puffy999: ZOOMIES THREAD!!!!!

[YouTube video: When cat won't play, dog gives in to the zoomies]


Pit bull dog gets the zoomies and makes the kids laugh hysterically
Youtube n15erzIWwWY
 
2021-08-03 1:16:15 AM  

bloobeary: What do hot rod exhaust headers have to do with hurricanes?

I mean, apart from that whole global warming thing.


She purrs like a kitten till the clathrate gun?
 
2021-08-03 1:26:14 AM  

AintNoAmoeba: puffy999: ZOOMIES THREAD!!!!!

[YouTube video: When cat won't play, dog gives in to the zoomies]

[iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/n15erzIWwWY?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=0&enablejsapi=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&widgetid=1]


Hah

Reminds me of being a kid and hanging out at grandma's house when our uncle would bring his dog over. The dog was named Dog.
 
2021-08-03 1:45:33 AM  

Loren: Shostie: I may be wrong, but this seems like just a cone of uncertainty but with animated dots.

Yeah, what they need to do is the cone but with probability lines rather than a hard edge.  I don't live in hurricane territory so I've never studied it, but I would have thought the cone was showing the area it had any reasonable likelihood of hitting, but from the article it seems the cone is probably one standard deviation only.


Cone is 3 standard deviations at the moment of prediction. You think you can do better, give it a shot. Cone refers to storm center. depending on the size of the storm, you can get destructive winds more than 100 miles from the storm center.
 
2021-08-03 2:38:20 AM  

aagrajag: Pocket Ninja: Incidentally, the only use of the word "zoomies" with which I'm familiar refers to what happens to certain puppies at a certain point in the early evening when they're really ready for bed but don't want to go yet and get themselves so worked up with frantic energy that they just start charging around the house, the yard, and any other space they can access in a hunched, galloping, careening run that somewhat resembles the path of an out-of-control rocket with its engine on full blast. I don't know that I can make a comfortable association between that and hurricane tracking.

Cats do that too. I always called it "the rips".


We always had both a cat and a dog.

Their zoomies would inevitably synchronize, and suddenly the apartment would turn into a gravity-defying velodrome act.

We called it "showtime."

Kinda like this, except instead of bicycles it was four-legged furry critters, and instead of a velodrome, it was the back of couches, chairs, tabletops, counters, console TVs, and anything else the cat and dog could bank off of.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-08-03 3:48:36 AM  

luna1580: also, they determined "zoomies" work by surveying random undergrads in pensacola and fort collins, CO?

have they considered that 20 YOs in those college communities may simply be bad at assessing risk in general, as most college students feel they are immortal and don't EVER think the hurricane is going to harm them personally? no matter if you show them a "cone of uncertainty" or some hip new "zoomie" dots?


People bad at assessing risk are the ones you'd want to test out your techniques on, since they're the most likely to stay in harm's way.
 
2021-08-03 3:51:18 AM  
mholloway63.files.wordpress.comView Full Size
 
2021-08-03 3:53:38 AM  
i.ytimg.comView Full Size
 
2021-08-03 5:44:25 AM  

SomeAmerican: So, basically their proposal is to give people less information in a less accurate format, so that they pay more attention and perceive the risk as higher?

... that might work actually.  Personally hate it though.


They're giving more information, particularly information about where the actual storm (as opposed to just its eye) will be.
 
2021-08-03 6:33:13 AM  

Ambitwistor: SomeAmerican: So, basically their proposal is to give people less information in a less accurate format, so that they pay more attention and perceive the risk as higher?

... that might work actually.  Personally hate it though.

They're giving more information, particularly information about where the actual storm (as opposed to just its eye) will be.


no, this is a stupid idea. when a storm is coming every single weather website, the weather channel, local stations in the area, and CNN etc, will be constantly showing (and updating) the projected path with "the cone".

but you know what else they will be showing constantly? the actual satellite images and the hurricane hunter wind speeds measured inside the storm.

for example, here is "the cone" for 2018's hurricane michael:

Fark user imageView Full Size


BUT can you personally NOT visualize if you might be in danger? ok, so leave the TV on one minute longer, or scroll down one screen online, and look at the satellite of the actual storm! again, michael in 2018 (at landfall):

Fark user imageView Full Size


between the projected path, the size of the storm, the wind speed updates, the storm surge warnings, and the constant live commentary on every channel and website it's easy to figure out if you should evacuate.

now, here are some "zoomies" from the article, for a hurricane on a path similar to michael:

Fark user imageView Full Size


not helpful.

looking at that you could be forgiven for thinking "well, i don't live in the middle of the gulf! i'm totally safe!"

maybe people in fort collins colorado aren't the best researchers to redesign hurricane forecasting. perhaps they should stick to mapping wildfire risk or something.....
 
2021-08-03 7:45:51 AM  

cretinbob: It's simple now.
People are farking stupid and you can't change that.


Was thinking exactly this.
 
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