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(Yahoo)   Stock market could drop 15% this fall. Thanks Obama   (finance.yahoo.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, High-yield debt, Scott Minerd, Long term, tapering of asset purchases, coming months, major risk factors, better opportunities, high-yield bonds  
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920 clicks; posted to Business » on 22 Jul 2021 at 11:05 AM (8 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



74 Comments     (+0 »)
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2021-07-22 7:57:00 AM  
Buy low, sell high.  Unstable stocks make this so much easier.
 
2021-07-22 8:15:57 AM  
So? Past performance is not an assurance of future returns. We're already up nearly 18% this year. So, we might have a somewhat less than average year this year? D2S gave us a -5% or so 2018.
 
2021-07-22 8:29:18 AM  
Oh goody. Perfect time to average down.
 
2021-07-22 8:45:52 AM  
The market will remain the same unless it goes down

/or up
 
2021-07-22 9:40:09 AM  
Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend
 
2021-07-22 9:58:16 AM  
smbc-comics.comView Full Size
 
2021-07-22 10:58:21 AM  
Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)
 
2021-07-22 11:01:12 AM  

IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend


THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days
 
2021-07-22 11:07:58 AM  
If the smooth-brains would just get farking vaccinated, we could avoid all this.
 
2021-07-22 11:11:03 AM  
oh c'mon now.  it's not an election year.  2022 is the oil price, stock market manipulation year.
 
2021-07-22 11:13:01 AM  

SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days


Given that the S&P 500 is something like 25% four companies, and many, MANY people are in index funds, it's a good idea to diversify against index funds. Just slip 10% over to a contra-fund or something.
 
2021-07-22 11:18:05 AM  

SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days


Day traders are nuts...but you can get out or in when huge obvious swings are happening.

Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.
 
2021-07-22 11:18:38 AM  
Why are the Dodgers going to get tickets to watch the Giants play the opening game of the World Series?
 
2021-07-22 11:25:02 AM  

Surrender your boo-tah: SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days

Given that the S&P 500 is something like 25% four companies, and many, MANY people are in index funds, it's a good idea to diversify against index funds. Just slip 10% over to a contra-fund or something.


Not quite, it takes roughly the top 9 to get to 25% of the s&p 500.

I don't know about a 'contra' fund, but I do put decent chunks into small/mid cap, bonds, or international funds. But those are generally 'index funds' too, just based on very different indexes.
 
2021-07-22 11:25:59 AM  
So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?
 
2021-07-22 11:33:02 AM  

Surrender your boo-tah: SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days

Given that the S&P 500 is something like 25% four companies, and many, MANY people are in index funds, it's a good idea to diversify against index funds. Just slip 10% over to a contra-fund or something.



Schwab has GREAT tools for this.

I am diversified
* Growth vs Income
* Large Cap vs Small cap
* Domestic vs international
* My index funds/etfs are diversified against multiple indices.


I am not claiming to be a genius at this stuff but the Scwab tools are VERY educational.
 
2021-07-22 11:34:06 AM  

Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?


That mattress ain't going to stuff itself!
 
2021-07-22 11:35:19 AM  
Without volatility, there would be no way to make any money in the markets.
 
2021-07-22 11:39:24 AM  
So his advice is cash out of stocks and crypto and bet the farm on the Dodgers.

Hmmm.....
 
2021-07-22 11:46:33 AM  

TheYeti: Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.


Yeah, silly enough to retire at 52 and 17 years later have about ten times as much in the market as in 2004.
 
2021-07-22 12:44:24 PM  

Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?


No no no no.  You SHORT.
 
2021-07-22 12:49:10 PM  

TheYeti: SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days

Day traders are nuts...but you can get out or in when huge obvious swings are happening.

Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.


Let me guess...you got out at SP500=3,300, got back in at 2,300, and it was just plain common sense?

If so, the dumbest move you're not making is (I assume) not managing your own hedge fund.
 
2021-07-22 12:51:42 PM  

SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)



Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.
 
2021-07-22 1:02:38 PM  
Market goes up:  Great!  All those good companies I purchased have made a lot of money and my investments have gone up in value by a large amount!

Market goes down:  Great!  All those good companies I've had my eye on are now on sale!  More for my money!

Remember:  It's not an actual gain or loss until you sell it.
 
2021-07-22 1:06:22 PM  

Kuroshin: SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)


Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.


I doubt covid cases will affect much in the market.  There will be no shutdowns or quarantining.
 
2021-07-22 1:07:51 PM  

TheYeti: Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.


My net worth increased 9.55% in 2020.
 
2021-07-22 1:09:56 PM  

Metastatic Capricorn: TheYeti: Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.

My net worth increased 9.55% in 2020.


Oops. Wrong column. My net worth increased 14.18% in 2020. Property did slightly better than investments, but one of those is in France, so exchange rates contributed.
 
2021-07-22 1:10:11 PM  

Kuroshin: SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)


Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.


Going long doesn't really count as timing, and going long this November is no smarter than having gone extra long at any "peak" 5 years ago. Any rationalization ends up simply being a case for dollar cost averaging.

Real attempts at market timing, like selling off to get back in, are at best a law of small numbers trap. You have doubts about the market and sell. Maybe you even buy back in a way that beats DCA (which is the hard part), factoring in any taxes and fees. Now you think your assessment of the market led you to profit. But try repeating that at least 5 times.
 
2021-07-22 1:16:30 PM  

Merltech: Buy low, sell high.  Unstable stocks make this so much easier.


Ironically
Day trading makes stock prices more volatile.

More casino playing than investing.
 
2021-07-22 1:16:57 PM  

TedCruz'sCrazyDad: Kuroshin: SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)


Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.

I doubt covid cases will affect much in the market.  There will be no shutdowns or quarantining.


Username checks out.
 
2021-07-22 1:18:33 PM  

Metastatic Capricorn: So? Past performance is not an assurance of future returns. We're already up nearly 18% this year. So, we might have a somewhat less than average year this year? D2S gave us a -5% or so 2018.


Ethereum is still up 300% for the year.  Or is it 500%??

Cant remember

But definately in fail territory.  ((::
 
2021-07-22 1:19:28 PM  

IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend


Crypto and Blockchain are your Future Friends
 
2021-07-22 1:20:56 PM  

rightClick: oh c'mon now.  it's not an election year.  2022 is the oil price, stock market manipulation year.


Every year is the 1%s year
 
2021-07-22 1:22:52 PM  
If only.  It'll do what it's been doing: go down 2%, then up 3%, wash, rinse, repeat (ad nauseum).
 
2021-07-22 1:23:29 PM  

Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?


Alot of asset classes are slowly moving money over to crypto/blockchain.
 
2021-07-22 1:25:53 PM  

Keyser_Soze_Death: Without volatility, there would be no way to make any money in the markets.


Wrong again

Without Labor.   Labor is what puts value into company stocks.

Volatility just benefits casino players on the stock exchange and those too lazy to get a job.
 
2021-07-22 1:26:46 PM  

natazha: TheYeti: Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.

Yeah, silly enough to retire at 52 and 17 years later have about ten times as much in the market as in 2004.


Now if u could just buy that time back....
 
2021-07-22 1:27:41 PM  

Mister Peejay: Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?

No no no no.  You SHORT.


Bet against people who work for a living.

Its the murcan way!
 
2021-07-22 1:28:21 PM  

Linux_Yes: Metastatic Capricorn: So? Past performance is not an assurance of future returns. We're already up nearly 18% this year. So, we might have a somewhat less than average year this year? D2S gave us a -5% or so 2018.

Ethereum is still up 300% for the year.  Or is it 500%??

Cant remember

But definately in fail territory.  ((::


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-07-22 1:28:39 PM  

Kuroshin: SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)


Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.


Crypto/blockchain long is the way to go
 
2021-07-22 1:32:26 PM  

Nick Nostril: If only.  It'll do what it's been doing: go down 2%, then up 3%, wash, rinse, repeat (ad nauseum).


Stocks go up and down
As
Employer/stock owner cocks go in and out
Of employee bung holes
 
2021-07-22 1:34:03 PM  

TedCruz'sCrazyDad: Linux_Yes: Metastatic Capricorn: So? Past performance is not an assurance of future returns. We're already up nearly 18% this year. So, we might have a somewhat less than average year this year? D2S gave us a -5% or so 2018.

Ethereum is still up 300% for the year.  Or is it 500%??

Cant remember

But definately in fail territory.  ((::

[Fark user image image 425x604]


Thank you
 
2021-07-22 1:42:00 PM  

Linux_Yes: Mister Peejay: Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?

No no no no.  You SHORT.

Bet against people who work for a living.

Its the murcan way!


We're talking about people who get rich by owning and not doing, after all.
 
2021-07-22 1:45:10 PM  

TheYeti: SpectroBoy: IgG4: Dollar cost averaging and no fee SP funds are your friend

THIS THIS THIS

Keeping expenses low and using dollar cost averaging has been a winner for 20+ years for me.

I also like index funds & ETFs. Most actively managed funds fail to beat the market or beat it by a tiny amount, and the costs are higher due to the management.

/Puts on asbestos suit
// Ready to be flamed by the day traders
/// Who are like the guy in the casino on his ONE lucky day and forgetting his 364 bad days

Day traders are nuts...but you can get out or in when huge obvious swings are happening.

Anyone that rode the market all the way down (without making any changes) during COVID was silly.


I tried my first day trade yesterday.  Holy moly is it stressful.

/but profitable
//using the proceeds to buy more very long AAPL
 
2021-07-22 1:57:19 PM  

Mister Peejay: Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?

No no no no.  You SHORT.


Yeah, we'll you're shorter.
 
2021-07-22 2:00:26 PM  
It looked like this thread had a lot of comments, but it just has a lot of spam.
 
2021-07-22 2:08:55 PM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Kuroshin: SpectroBoy: Market timing is mostly a fool's game.
If you REALLY knew what was going to happen AND WHEN you would already be rich (and famous, and under investigation)


Only if you have confidence in yourself.  Some people have that confidence, and have done exactly that.  (No, I'm not one of them)

The market is going to take another hit, because consumer confidence is going to tank as COVID cases spike upward in September and October.  Lots of opportunity for long purchases by November.

Going long doesn't really count as timing, and going long this November is no smarter than having gone extra long at any "peak" 5 years ago. Any rationalization ends up simply being a case for dollar cost averaging.

Real attempts at market timing, like selling off to get back in, are at best a law of small numbers trap. You have doubts about the market and sell. Maybe you even buy back in a way that beats DCA (which is the hard part), factoring in any taxes and fees. Now you think your assessment of the market led you to profit. But try repeating that at least 5 times.



That was me putting two different thoughts in the same post.  My bad.  First paragraph was about the market timing subject.  Buddy of mine is up $300k this year from watching trends, while I'm long in everything, so I'm...pretty much flat right now (had a couple stinkers).  Second was about the discounts we're likely to see with consumer confidence hitting the floor as COVID cases spike and people start dropping dead in droves again.  Offer not valid once November hits and suddenly everything is all about dat holiday azz.  ADHD will kick in and there will be some fun in Q4.
 
2021-07-22 3:00:07 PM  
If you're 40+ years old and haven't gotten yourself quite well off in these last 12 years, you have no one to blame but yourself.  The market could drop 10% before I finish typing this sentence, but we've had a really, really long time to build enough wealth not to fret about it.
 
2021-07-22 3:22:30 PM  

Mister Peejay: Linux_Yes: Mister Peejay: Billy Liar: So you're saying everyone should just cash out of the market?

No no no no.  You SHORT.

Bet against people who work for a living.

Its the murcan way!

We're talking about people who get rich by owning and not doing, after all.


Labor creates wealth
Labor came before wealth and deserves the higher regard
---A Lincoln
 
2021-07-22 3:30:03 PM  

FlashHarry: If the smooth-brains would just get farking vaccinated, we could avoid all this.


It's Trump's fault. The orange orangutan insists on repeatedly taking credit for developing the vaccine, which is causing the hesitancy.
 
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