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(Twitter)   Nate Silver on why Republicans are suddenly getting "vax religion"   (twitter.com) divider line
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5765 clicks; posted to Politics » on 21 Jul 2021 at 10:50 PM (11 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-07-21 6:23:43 PM  
Original Tweet:

 
2021-07-21 6:47:38 PM  
No one thinks it is because a disproportionately large percentage of the people who will die will be Republicans who were told this was the common cold by there party.
 
2021-07-21 6:49:12 PM  
Because their lies are killing off their base?
 
2021-07-21 6:51:23 PM  
I think its a mix of two things:

1) betting Trump won't be as relevant or powerful by 2022
2) Rushing to get back onto the right side of history before the next COVID wave just in case people in the "middle" really hold it against them in 2022
 
2021-07-21 6:56:56 PM  

weddingsinger: I think its a mix of two things:

1) betting Trump won't be as relevant or powerful by 2022
2) Rushing to get back onto the right side of history before the next COVID wave just in case people in the "middle" really hold it against them in 2022


Whatever the reason, it sure as fark isn't for the greater good.
 
2021-07-21 7:04:10 PM  

shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?


This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.
 
2021-07-21 7:29:52 PM  

scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.


I'm not a number crunching guy.  But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?
 
2021-07-21 7:39:25 PM  
Hopefully there will remain just enough vocal holdouts who blame republicans for flip-flopping on vaccines to remind everyone that the GQP was once rock solid in its support of vaccine skepticism, and that should point out to anyone able to rub two braincells together how this a problem the GQP created.
 
2021-07-21 8:04:44 PM  
Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out. Even if a whole lotta vax deniers catch the 'rona, and the usual percentage of them are goners, it won't really skew voting numbers.
Silver's take on the other hand makes some sense -- vaxxed folks might not want to vote for anti-vax pols, and there's enough vaxxed voters to make a difference.
 
2021-07-21 8:22:03 PM  
The tiny fact that 99% of people dying of Covid are unvaccinated is getting harder and harder to ignore.
 
2021-07-21 8:44:30 PM  

BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy. But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?


I am. Using round numbers:
326,000,000 US population
609,000 fatalities = 0.19% of the population
326m pop / 431 current US reps = average district of 756,381.
So an average of 1128 people died, per US represented district.

So any house race that is closer that .19%, or within a reasonable margin, it may be in play due to COVID.
Remember, that this is making A LOT of assumptions. Minorities were more heavily impacted, and they tend
to vote D. But the death rate skews MUCH higher to over 65 that lean heavy R.
 
2021-07-21 8:45:58 PM  

BizarreMan: Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?


A whole hell of a lot the way things are going.

/since GOP legislatures are trying to ensure they can just override the will of the voters and all.
 
2021-07-21 9:02:06 PM  
The sacred Dow Jones index dipping on Monday might have had something to do with it. They don't care about lives, but if money's at stake...
 
2021-07-21 9:02:18 PM  

shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?


Covid, killing morons across the nation.  Don't get vaccinated ya freakin' idiots.  Maybe by 2022 the Republican base will be tiny, like Republican dicks.
 
2021-07-21 9:45:17 PM  

allears: Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out. Even if a whole lotta vax deniers catch the 'rona, and the usual percentage of them are goners, it won't really skew voting numbers.
Silver's take on the other hand makes some sense -- vaxxed folks might not want to vote for anti-vax pols, and there's enough vaxxed voters to make a difference.


^^^ He's right, you know.
 
2021-07-21 10:27:46 PM  

dildo tontine: The tiny fact that 99% of people dying of Covid are unvaccinated is getting harder and harder to ignore.


It does indeed. "You're part of the group responsible for spreading it, letting it stick around and mutate and infect more people" either convinces them to get vaccinated or makes them get very, very angry. I angered someone by saying that this week, and don't regret it.
 
2021-07-21 10:33:59 PM  

From Philly to Boston: Minorities were more heavily impacted, and they tend
to vote D. But the death rate skews MUCH higher to over 65 that lean heavy R.


Voters over 65 still lean R but not by much (52-48). In November 2020 this was how it broke down.

Fark user imageView Full Size


And you have to think that, based on having such a high vaccination rate, voters over 65 probably skew even less Republican now.
 
2021-07-21 10:51:41 PM  
Blah blah blah Nate Silver bullshiatting with after the fact data.
 
2021-07-21 10:52:30 PM  
Nate Silver is a dumpster fire.
 
2021-07-21 10:55:58 PM  
It will be very interesting to see how many, if any, Republicans lose in 2022 by a smaller margin than the number of post-vaccine-availability COVID 19 deaths in their district/state. I'm guessing it will be more than a few.
 
2021-07-21 10:56:49 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-07-21 10:56:59 PM  
In other words, Republicans were against vaccines when that was politically expedient, and now they are for them because that is now politically expedient.

How many Americans were dead and dying was irrelevant to them, and remains so.
 
2021-07-21 10:57:31 PM  

allears: Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out. Even if a whole lotta vax deniers catch the 'rona, and the usual percentage of them are goners, it won't really skew voting numbers.
Silver's take on the other hand makes some sense -- vaxxed folks might not want to vote for anti-vax pols, and there's enough vaxxed voters to make a difference.


There were a whole lot of races last year that were pretty damn close. You're saying none of them would be affected by thousands of deaths?
 
2021-07-21 10:57:48 PM  

The Bunyip: Nate Silver is a dumpster fire.


The person? Yes, he's a total dick.
 
2021-07-21 10:57:52 PM  

From Philly to Boston: BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy. But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?

I am. Using round numbers:
326,000,000 US population
609,000 fatalities = 0.19% of the population
326m pop / 431 current US reps = average district of 756,381.
So an average of 1128 people died, per US represented district.

So any house race that is closer that .19%, or within a reasonable margin, it may be in play due to COVID.
Remember, that this is making A LOT of assumptions. Minorities were more heavily impacted, and they tend
to vote D. But the death rate skews MUCH higher to over 65 that lean heavy R.


Thank you, that's brilliant.  Numbers are my spirit animals.

/we have some good idea of range
//not 10, not 100,000
 
2021-07-21 10:59:03 PM  

shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?


This is probably the only moment Nate Silver will be correct about the pandemic.

I guess we can let him have this one.

STFU tomorrow though, Nate. I don't wanna hear shiat til Jan 1 2022.
 
2021-07-21 10:59:21 PM  
RWNJs: "It's jest a common cold! Ah ain't gittin' no vaccine!"
Also RWNJs: "Damn China and Fauci for letting the COVID-19 happen!"
 
2021-07-21 10:59:42 PM  

BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy.  But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?


For fun I looked at Florida's stats and the only   county where the margin was close enough that there were more people who died of COVID than the margin was Pinellas county, and it went blue...

So while your idea is interesting, I don't think it will pan out as you planned.  Unless the families of the deceased hold a grudge.
 
2021-07-21 11:01:40 PM  

shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?


Probably this.

It's hard to maintain the pretense that "only teh libz are getting COVID" when more and more doctors are saying "it's the unvaccinated who are dying you boobs!"
 
2021-07-21 11:02:35 PM  
"But the virus just kills 1% of people"

"Yeah, but elections are getting closer than that"
 
2021-07-21 11:04:25 PM  
It's not just the deaths.  Covid messes up many survivors quite badly.  And many people who get it immediately regret their anti-vax opinion and may blame the GOP for fostering it.  Apparently one of the first questions from people being admitted for Covid is "can I still get the vaccine?".
 
2021-07-21 11:06:06 PM  
Who asked for this moron's opinion?
 
2021-07-21 11:06:10 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-07-21 11:06:36 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: And many people who get it immediately regret their anti-vax opinion and may blame the GOP for fostering it.


Might, but probably won't.
 
2021-07-21 11:06:40 PM  

scottydoesntknow: Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper)


You're forgetting that Children exist, and can't get vaccinated because of their age.
 
2021-07-21 11:07:09 PM  
If your Republican relative dies, you could get:

✅ excellent zipcode for health insurance
✅ the right to vote from that zipcode
✅ a new car
✅ a wad of cash
✅ lawyers
✅ money to donate to Elizabeth Warren
 
amb
2021-07-21 11:07:39 PM  

From Philly to Boston: BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy. But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?

I am. Using round numbers:
326,000,000 US population
609,000 fatalities = 0.19% of the population
326m pop / 431 current US reps = average district of 756,381.
So an average of 1128 people died, per US represented district.

So any house race that is closer that .19%, or within a reasonable margin, it may be in play due to COVID.
Remember, that this is making A LOT of assumptions. Minorities were more heavily impacted, and they tend
to vote D. But the death rate skews MUCH higher to over 65 that lean heavy R.


Only around 150-155 million votes cast in last election. So if those 1128 deaths skewed to older citizen who are more likely voters, then really it is a potential impact of closer to 0.3%. Starting to get in the range where dropping 10-20,000 votes in a senate race is possible.
 
2021-07-21 11:08:24 PM  

allears: Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out. Even if a whole lotta vax deniers catch the 'rona, and the usual percentage of them are goners, it won't really skew voting numbers.
Silver's take on the other hand makes some sense -- vaxxed folks might not want to vote for anti-vax pols, and there's enough vaxxed voters to make a difference.


Especially if you do something really dirty and underhanded, like make campaign commercials with footage of them speaking.

Only those low down DemonRats would use a person's own words against them!!
 
2021-07-21 11:11:08 PM  

weddingsinger: I think its a mix of two things:

1) betting Trump won't be as relevant or powerful by 2022
2) Rushing to get back onto the right side of history before the next COVID wave just in case people in the "middle" really hold it against them in 2022


The indictment last week might mean that he will have trouble getting financial backing (but what the heck do I know). Also, don't forget McCarthy met with Trump last week and the same day Jenna Ellis told Romney at the RNC to go pound sand.

Methinks that Trump told Kevin he's going on his little pity-party tour this summer and that he plans on keeping all the money. The GOP can't raise their own dicks without Trump so they are playing entrenchment until they can gerrymander themselves back into control of the house with next years mid-terms.

The Dems need Trump as much as the GOP does so sit back and watch his bloated corpse being flayed by the press until he's dead, broke or preferably both.

But what the hell do I know.
 
2021-07-21 11:12:39 PM  
Will destroying the country for the second time in 2 years be enough for Republican voters to change their minds?  I doubt it.
 
2021-07-21 11:13:36 PM  

BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy.  But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?


We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.
Love this misspelling.  They really do have the slimiesh majority.
 
2021-07-21 11:13:48 PM  

BizarreMan: scottydoesntknow: shastacola: Because their lies are killing off their base?

This. Prior to the vaccine, everyone was susceptible. Now with the vaccine, 95%+ that are getting it are unvaccinated (which most likely means you are a Trump-humper), and even those vaccinated that get it are doing much better. It's only killing those who didn't get the shot that can literally protect your life.

This is about protecting the Fox News viewers and far-right voters.

I'm not a number crunching guy.  But I am getting very curious about the impact on redistricting and electoral math due to Covid.

We know that in many instances, districts are gerrymandered to split the R's around enough to have a slimish majority in enough districts.  So it may not take a lot of people dying in a red district to flip it blue. And when you look at electoral math.  Factor in the number of people who will had died from Covid by 2022/2024 and what does that do with a narrow margin state?


You mean dead voters?

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-07-21 11:16:19 PM  
A: Because not all of the snake wants to eat itself.
 
2021-07-21 11:17:07 PM  

dildo tontine: The tiny fact that 99% of people dying of Covid are unvaccinated is getting harder and harder to ignore.


Got stats?  Because I've seen 60% from Hannity or Cucker Tarlson and never bothered to research.  Not saying they are right, I just don't have milk.

Sorry, I meant I don't have stats.  I got milk.
 
2021-07-21 11:17:21 PM  

The Bunyip: Nate Silver is a dumpster fire.


Actuaries are never "wrong". It's the "model" which is wrong.
Those models are approved by "management".

Ipso Facto: it's managements fault
 
2021-07-21 11:17:32 PM  

Ken S.: No one thinks it is because a disproportionately large percentage of the people who will die will be Republicans who were told this was the common cold by there party.


Where party?
 
2021-07-21 11:18:23 PM  

Purple_Urkle: If your Republican relative dies, you could get:

✅ excellent zipcode for health insurance
✅ the right to vote from that zipcode
✅ a new car
✅ a wad of cash
✅ lawyers
✅ money to donate to Elizabeth Warren


I can hear Mitch McConnell loading a dart gun right now.
 
2021-07-21 11:18:50 PM  
They are lying, self serving assholes, and that explains almost everything.
But... it doesn't explain the "why now", nor why they think the damage hasn't already been done... and that we will just forget. *shrug*
 
2021-07-21 11:25:13 PM  

recondite cetacean: dildo tontine: The tiny fact that 99% of people dying of Covid are unvaccinated is getting harder and harder to ignore.

Got stats?  Because I've seen 60% from Hannity or Cucker Tarlson and never bothered to research.  Not saying they are right, I just don't have milk.

Sorry, I meant I don't have stats.  I got milk.


The stats have been in the news on a daily basis for at least the last 2 weeks. Read more news, listen to less Fox.
 
2021-07-21 11:25:23 PM  

recondite cetacean: dildo tontine: The tiny fact that 99% of people dying of Covid are unvaccinated is getting harder and harder to ignore.

Got stats?  Because I've seen 60% from Hannity or Cucker Tarlson and never bothered to research.  Not saying they are right, I just don't have milk.

Sorry, I meant I don't have stats.  I got milk.


Quick search on hospitalizations from last week found this - 97 percent of those hospitalized are unvaccinated. Yes, from the "librul snowflake" NPR. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/16/1​017012​853/97-of-people-entering-hospitals-fo​r-covid-19-are-unvaccinated
 
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