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(Guardian)   Over 75,000 cases of the Delta variant reported in the UK   (theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Vaccine, Vaccination, PHE Public Health England, Prof Rowland Kao, latest R number, government's Scientific Advisory Group, sharp rise, Covid cases  
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1163 clicks; posted to Main » on 19 Jun 2021 at 1:50 AM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-06-18 11:27:22 PM  
You would think they know not to fly on that airline. Fly the flag carrier, British Air.
 
2021-06-18 11:28:48 PM  
They probably charge you extra to throw you off the plane, too. At least United does it for free.
 
2021-06-18 11:41:15 PM  
Delta Airlines Ad: We're Coming For You
Youtube YWZx01DS67E
 
2021-06-19 1:54:43 AM  
Obviously, we should slow down testing.
 
2021-06-19 2:01:49 AM  
Dear stupid f*cking medias the world over:

Please stop saying "vaccine". Please specify which vaccine and show some f*cking numbers.

Yours in Chris,

Everyone
 
2021-06-19 2:06:57 AM  

mrparks: Dear stupid f*cking medias the world over:

Please stop saying "vaccine". Please specify which vaccine and show some f*cking numbers.

Yours in Chris,

Everyone


Moderna and Pfizer 2 jabs 94% against hospitalization for disease by delta. 88% against detectable asymptomatic infection. That's still very very good.
 
2021-06-19 2:15:25 AM  
I'm curious what percentage have received both doses of the Astra-Zeneca vaccine, and if so, are they symptomatic/serious infections?
 
2021-06-19 2:22:01 AM  
So single dose strategy isn't working so hot with Delta if R0 is ~1.3 even with 80% of the adult population having at least 1 dose! I mean deaths are relatively low, so it's not a total failure, but they're really going to want to get those 2nd doses in arms ASAP and possibly start planning work to ID vulnerable for a third (or get the vulnerable who haven't had a 2nd an mRNA shot for #2).
 
2021-06-19 2:23:08 AM  
One of the few good pieces of news: there has been absolutely zero resurgence in Israel which puts an excellent upper limit on the actual infectiousness of this bastard vs vaccines.

And now for some horrifying news: outbreak of Δ in Sydney, Australia with 2 infections confirmed by *fleeting contact* (as in literally, victims 2 and 3 walked by victim 1).
 
2021-06-19 2:25:10 AM  

erik-k: One of the few good pieces of news: there has been absolutely zero resurgence in Israel which puts an excellent upper limit on the actual infectiousness of this bastard vs vaccines.

And now for some horrifying news: outbreak of Δ in Sydney, Australia with 2 infections confirmed by *fleeting contact* (as in literally, victims 2 and 3 walked by victim 1).


Do you have a link to the second part? That's crazy
 
2021-06-19 2:25:39 AM  

robodog: So single dose strategy isn't working so hot with Delta if R0 is ~1.3 even with 80% of the adult population having at least 1 dose! I mean deaths are relatively low, so it's not a total failure, but they're really going to want to get those 2nd doses in arms ASAP and possibly start planning work to ID vulnerable for a third (or get the vulnerable who haven't had a 2nd an mRNA shot for #2).


The UK has actually passed the USA in number of people with both doses.

The UK, nationwide, is ahead of all but a relative handful of urban areas of the US.
 
2021-06-19 2:25:55 AM  
Corona isn't done with us yet. This is gonna spread like fire in the US (at least the south and the prairie states). I sure as hell hope the vaccines keep working and effective boosters come out. I wouldn't be surprised if another million die in the US over the next couple years as variants sweep through.
 
2021-06-19 2:29:43 AM  

hervatski: erik-k: One of the few good pieces of news: there has been absolutely zero resurgence in Israel which puts an excellent upper limit on the actual infectiousness of this bastard vs vaccines.

And now for some horrifying news: outbreak of Δ in Sydney, Australia with 2 infections confirmed by *fleeting contact* (as in literally, victims 2 and 3 walked by victim 1).

Do you have a link to the second part? That's crazy


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theg​u​ardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/18/​nsw-covid-update-masks-compulsory-on-s​ydney-public-transport-after-new-fleet​ing-contact-case

The least-horrible possible scenario is that the index case is an exception with extremely high viral load.

If this shiat gets much worse we're going to approach requiring Measles vaccine level coverage to beat it.
 
2021-06-19 2:34:56 AM  

erik-k: hervatski: erik-k: One of the few good pieces of news: there has been absolutely zero resurgence in Israel which puts an excellent upper limit on the actual infectiousness of this bastard vs vaccines.

And now for some horrifying news: outbreak of Δ in Sydney, Australia with 2 infections confirmed by *fleeting contact* (as in literally, victims 2 and 3 walked by victim 1).

Do you have a link to the second part? That's crazy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thegu​ardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/18/​nsw-covid-update-masks-compulsory-on-s​ydney-public-transport-after-new-fleet​ing-contact-case

The least-horrible possible scenario is that the index case is an exception with extremely high viral load.

If this shiat gets much worse we're going to approach requiring Measles vaccine level coverage to beat it.


Thank you!

Or they're leaving out something.  Like the lady who said she never ventured outside, always wore a mask, and encountered one delivery person outside her door and got covid. Then, further down the story, you find out her husband ventures out all the time for groceries and work? I think they tested the husband he was negative but unsure if they tested him for antibodies?

Just crossing my fingers it's not getting to measles r0 level :(
 
2021-06-19 2:39:19 AM  
Seems like only the mRMA vaccines work well against delta. The US, dispute hesatency in Dixie, should do well in the medium term because of this. The UK is in trouble.
 
2021-06-19 2:44:20 AM  

feckingmorons: You would think they know not to fly on that airline. Fly the flag carrier, British Air.


Proving that even flights within the UK are routed through Atlanta....
 
2021-06-19 2:45:18 AM  
Ftfa
Fark user imageView Full Size


So it's the age group still on their first shot, in a country who mostly went with AZ. And hospitalizations are still stable/low.
 
2021-06-19 2:47:33 AM  

feckingmorons: You would think they know not to fly on that airline. Fly the flag carrier, British Air.


Oh how I love British Airways.

/YRLY.
 
2021-06-19 2:53:42 AM  

robodog: So single dose strategy isn't working so hot with Delta if R0 is ~1.3 even with 80% of the adult population having at least 1 dose! I mean deaths are relatively low, so it's not a total failure, but they're really going to want to get those 2nd doses in arms ASAP and possibly start planning work to ID vulnerable for a third (or get the vulnerable who haven't had a 2nd an mRNA shot for #2).


All the vulnerable were double dosed a far while back. It will the last of the over 50s or the start of the over 40s getting called in for their second dose at the moment.
 
2021-06-19 3:02:52 AM  

erik-k: If this shiat gets much worse we're going to approach requiring Measles vaccine level coverage to beat it.


That has been very likely from the beginning, given that some of the indoor superspreader events for the original virus exhibited an attack rate of >90%.

A 95% effective vaccine doesn't help much when putting one plague rat in a (room | train car | aircraft) with 100 other people still gets you 4 new cases.

Is it known how close the India-BJP variant is to the physical limits of infectiousness i.e. where one viron = 100% chance of infection?
 
2021-06-19 3:07:40 AM  

Me so thorny: Seems like only the mRMA vaccines work well against delta. The US, dispute hesatency in Dixie, should do well in the medium term because of this. The UK is in trouble.


The AZ vaccine is 71% effective after 1 dose, 94% after 2 doses against hospitalisation and death. Lots of people got Pfizer anyway. The rate of increase in case rate is reducing and the death rate, which did go up slightly at the start of the spread of delta, has remained very low. We aren't in trouble
 
2021-06-19 3:09:28 AM  

Me so thorny: Seems like only the mRMA vaccines work well against delta.


Two doses of the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine are almost as effective against the BJP-Indian variant as are two doses of the Pfizer/Moderna mRNA vaccines. None of these vaccines fare well against the BJP-Indian variant with only one dose.

As far as I can recall, the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine is only a complete flop against the South African variant.

Anyone who has had only one dose of anything should act as if they have no protection whatsoever.
 
2021-06-19 3:34:27 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: erik-k: If this shiat gets much worse we're going to approach requiring Measles vaccine level coverage to beat it.

That has been very likely from the beginning, given that some of the indoor superspreader events for the original virus exhibited an attack rate of >90%.

A 95% effective vaccine doesn't help much when putting one plague rat in a (room | train car | aircraft) with 100 other people still gets you 4 new cases.

Is it known how close the India-BJP variant is to the physical limits of infectiousness i.e. where one viron = 100% chance of infection?


I mean, it's got a LONG way to go to be as malignant as measles. Measles is literally "if you aren't vaccinated, and you walk into a room where someone with measles took a single breath several hours ago, you get measles." Inhalation of something like 3 measles virons is sufficient. Via direct blood exposure, ebola is nearly this virulent - exposure of your blood to just 3-5 ebola virons will cause infection. But of course, it's generally pretty damn easy to avoid blood exposure

The ID50 for covid is very highly dependent on the size of the particle. Best fit modelling indicates that the upper respiratory tract - which catches virtually all particles larger than 5-10 micrometers - requires about 50 times the amount of exposure as the lower respiratory tract because the LRT expresses a lot more ACE-2 receptors and because there's no mucus.

I don't have a paper handy but I've seen estimates that the ID50 for covid is "over 100 but under 500" virons. Apparently a typical flu strain is about 750. I'm guessing this is for LRT exposure since (as it's unethical to deliberately expose people to it) these are usually cell culture infections which is much more like the immediate close contact of the LRT. The delta variant is probably closer to 100-ish... though most of these say that the bastard is more infectious not because individual viruses are more effective but because it causes much higher viral load in victims.
 
2021-06-19 3:47:33 AM  

169th Cousin: [iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/YWZx01DS​67E?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3​A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=0&enablejsap​i=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&​widgetid=1]


A real ad? If so, no really fully thought-out. There are ways to cut almost anything to have a different meaning than you intended. See: The Shining, recut as a romantic comedy.
 
2021-06-19 4:08:16 AM  
Funny how this Pandemic has lasted this long, but on the other hand every Pandemic has lasted for almost two years....

I don't see why everyone is in such a hurry to Reboot their Countries?!?!?!

Me I'm in no hurry for this Pandemic to be called done....!!!
 
2021-06-19 4:49:07 AM  

I'm no expert but...: Me so thorny: Seems like only the mRMA vaccines work well against delta. The US, dispute hesatency in Dixie, should do well in the medium term because of this. The UK is in trouble.

The AZ vaccine is 71% effective after 1 dose, 94% after 2 doses against hospitalisation and death. Lots of people got Pfizer anyway. The rate of increase in case rate is reducing and the death rate, which did go up slightly at the start of the spread of delta, has remained very low. We aren't in trouble



Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

"On Tuesday, AstraZeneca said that real-world data from PHE suggest that vaccine effectiveness against milder symptomatic disease, although significant, was lower - 74% against the Alpha variant and 64% against the Delta variant."

So a decent number of people can still get sick and continue to spread the virus around even after the full AstraZenca vaccination.

As for one dose against Delta: "AstraZeneca Plc's antibody cocktail was only 33 per cent effective at preventing Covid-19 symptoms in people who had been exposed to the virus, failing a study that was key to the drugmaker."
https://www.business-standard.com/art​i​cle/current-affairs/pfizer-astrazeneca​-covid-jabs-highly-effective-against-d​elta-variant-121061500705_1.html
 
2021-06-19 5:06:12 AM  

Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.


It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.
 
2021-06-19 5:14:18 AM  

Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.


Hospitalization with lifelong repercussions is usually the be all and death is often the end all unless you have access to a pet semetary
 
2021-06-19 5:24:16 AM  

Nidiot: I'm no expert but...: Me so thorny: Seems like only the mRMA vaccines work well against delta. The US, dispute hesatency in Dixie, should do well in the medium term because of this. The UK is in trouble.

The AZ vaccine is 71% effective after 1 dose, 94% after 2 doses against hospitalisation and death. Lots of people got Pfizer anyway. The rate of increase in case rate is reducing and the death rate, which did go up slightly at the start of the spread of delta, has remained very low. We aren't in trouble


Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

"On Tuesday, AstraZeneca said that real-world data from PHE suggest that vaccine effectiveness against milder symptomatic disease, although significant, was lower - 74% against the Alpha variant and 64% against the Delta variant."

So a decent number of people can still get sick and continue to spread the virus around even after the full AstraZenca vaccination.

As for one dose against Delta: "AstraZeneca Plc's antibody cocktail was only 33 per cent effective at preventing Covid-19 symptoms in people who had been exposed to the virus, failing a study that was key to the drugmaker."
https://www.business-standard.com/arti​cle/current-affairs/pfizer-astrazeneca​-covid-jabs-highly-effective-against-d​elta-variant-121061500705_1.html


I'm pretty sure that death is the end-all.
 
2021-06-19 5:32:36 AM  

Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.


Stopping the spread is better than not.

Not getting sick at all is better than getting sick but not dying.
 
2021-06-19 5:40:35 AM  

thealgorerhythm: Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.

Hospitalization with lifelong repercussions is usually the be all and death is often the end all unless you have access to a pet semetary


Good point, death is pretty final. But the good news is when a vaccine doesn't let you get sick in the first place, you still get to avoid death. The option is sick but not dead vs not sick and not dead. The latter is better.

Plenty of people have developed long term problems from having covid that was not severe enough to need hospitalisation. Even a mild covid infections have left people with Long Covid. So if you don't want lifelong repercussion you need to avoid any infection, not just hospitalisation level infection.
 
2021-06-19 5:54:47 AM  

Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.


How do you figure? It's accepted that they are distinct things, but they are related. The design is the same for all three goals. We want it all but if we have to settle for reducing disease severity, we'll settle. Meanwhile, most of these vaccines are highly effective at preventing detectable asymptomatic infection (via PCR testing)
 
2021-06-19 6:01:22 AM  

Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.


Here's a piece, not mine, on why the purpose of vaccines is not limited to stopping hospitalisation and death, stopping further transmission is actually also important:

Why does this matter?
If COVID-19 vaccines reduce the chances of transmitting the virus, then each person who is vaccinated protects not only themselves, but also people around them.

Breaking chains of transmission within the community and limiting onward spread is critical to help protect people who may respond poorly to immunisation or may not be able to get vaccinated themselves, such as children, some older people, and some people who are immunocompromised.

This also greatly increases the opportunity to achieve some degree of population - or herd - immunity, and a faster easing of social restrictions.
 
2021-06-19 6:10:09 AM  
And a reason much of the vaccine clinical endpoints focused on disease severity is that it's easier to measure as well as sufficient for approval.
 
2021-06-19 7:20:49 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: erik-k: If this shiat gets much worse we're going to approach requiring Measles vaccine level coverage to beat it.

That has been very likely from the beginning, given that some of the indoor superspreader events for the original virus exhibited an attack rate of >90%.

A 95% effective vaccine doesn't help much when putting one plague rat in a (room | train car | aircraft) with 100 other people still gets you 4 new cases.

Is it known how close the India-BJP variant is to the physical limits of infectiousness i.e. where one viron = 100% chance of infection?


You suck at math. That's not what 95% effective means.
 
2021-06-19 7:53:07 AM  
The mRNA vaccines are still very effective against Delta. So we just need to seal off the borders and we're in the clear.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-06-19 9:04:25 AM  

Bowen: The mRNA vaccines are still very effective against Delta. So we just need to seal off the borders and we're in the clear.

[Fark user image 425x254]


MI, WI, and Minnesota tell the rest of the world to fark off, especially you, Illinois and Ohio.
 
2021-06-19 9:06:50 AM  
also, I'm reading a CLive Cussler novel right now, Medusa, that's about a COVID-type world-wide epidemic, so I'm getting a kick out of these replies/infections
 
2021-06-19 9:07:59 AM  
Can't stress it enough - get fully vaccinated. 2 shots plus 2 weeks.

Even with the decreased effectiveness against the Delta variant, full vaccination works, and works well - much lower chance of infection and, in the rare event you are infected, much lower chance of a severe infection, one that would require hospitalization.

Please, for the love of everything that makes farking sense, get vaccinated.
 
2021-06-19 9:09:37 AM  

Nidiot: Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.

Here's a piece, not mine, on why the purpose of vaccines is not limited to stopping hospitalisation and death, stopping further transmission is actually also important:

Why does this matter?
If COVID-19 vaccines reduce the chances of transmitting the virus, then each person who is vaccinated protects not only themselves, but also people around them.

Breaking chains of transmission within the community and limiting onward spread is critical to help protect people who may respond poorly to immunisation or may not be able to get vaccinated themselves, such as children, some older people, and some people who are immunocompromised.

This also greatly increases the opportunity to achieve some degree of population - or herd - immunity, and a faster easing of social restrictions.


Exactly. Also, variants happen, in large part, because the virus has time and opportunity to mutate. Vaccination robs the virus of both time and opportunity.
 
2021-06-19 9:10:43 AM  
I hear India is working hard on a new variant, I'll wait for that one.
 
2021-06-19 9:58:07 AM  

Nidiot: thealgorerhythm: Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.

Hospitalization with lifelong repercussions is usually the be all and death is often the end all unless you have access to a pet semetary

Good point, death is pretty final. But the good news is when a vaccine doesn't let you get sick in the first place, you still get to avoid death. The option is sick but not dead vs not sick and not dead. The latter is better.

Plenty of people have developed long term problems from having covid that was not severe enough to need hospitalisation. Even a mild covid infections have left people with Long Covid. So if you don't want lifelong repercussion you need to avoid any infection, not just hospitalisation level infection.


Do we have data showing long term problems in the vaccinated at any large scale? I mean outside of a few anecdotes. I have read more then a few virologist who think the weirder side effects were often a result of novelty.
 
2021-06-19 10:51:08 AM  

Nidiot: thealgorerhythm: Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all.

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.

Hospitalization with lifelong repercussions is usually the be all and death is often the end all unless you have access to a pet semetary

Good point, death is pretty final. But the good news is when a vaccine doesn't let you get sick in the first place, you still get to avoid death. The option is sick but not dead vs not sick and not dead. The latter is better.

Plenty of people have developed long term problems from having covid that was not severe enough to need hospitalisation. Even a mild covid infections have left people with Long Covid. So if you don't want lifelong repercussion you need to avoid any infection, not just hospitalisation level infection.


People who were asymptomatic covid have come down with long covid.

An analysis of electronic medical records in California found that 32% of individuals with long-term COVID-19 complications had asymptomatic infections, but experienced aftereffects months later.

According to the study authors, most research has focused on the 1% of COVID-19 patients who are hospitalized, although very little is known about the medium- and long-term impacts of the disease. They noted that emerging data suggest that a significant number of hospitalized patients go on to have long-term symptoms, with some studies estimating approximately 10%.
 
2021-06-19 11:28:29 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-06-19 12:09:03 PM  
In the queue for my second shot right now 😱
 
2021-06-19 12:14:16 PM  

robodog: So single dose strategy isn't working so hot with Delta if R0 is ~1.3 even with 80% of the adult population having at least 1 dose! I mean deaths are relatively low, so it's not a total failure, but they're really going to want to get those 2nd doses in arms ASAP and possibly start planning work to ID vulnerable for a third (or get the vulnerable who haven't had a 2nd an mRNA shot for #2).


The UK overtook the US in fully vaccinated figures, both doses, a week ago. Deaths are still very low, fourteen yesterday, eleven today, so the vaccines, about half and half Pfizer and AZ, are working.
 
2021-06-19 12:40:03 PM  

wademh: Cajnik: Nidiot: Hospitalisation and death is not the be-all and end-all

It's what the vaccines were designed to prevent. They were not designed to stop the spread.

How do you figure? It's accepted that they are distinct things, but they are related. The design is the same for all three goals. We want it all but if we have to settle for reducing disease severity, we'll settle. Meanwhile, most of these vaccines are highly effective at preventing detectable asymptomatic infection (via PCR testing)


The clinical trials primarily looked at preventing symptomatic disease. That's easier to measure than stopping transmission, because you can wait for a patient to report a cough rather than testing for infectious virus every few days.

It's not accurate to say that the vaccines were not designed to stop the spread. They trigger an immune response against the virus, and the sooner a person's immune system can shut down an infection the less chance that they will spread it to others.

There are some vaccines which are targeted against a toxin produced by a bacterial infection, rather than targeting the organism itself. That doesn't apply to the COVID vaccines.
 
2021-06-19 3:43:29 PM  
Eh, it's not good, but doesn't look like it's going to bring us back to ground zero like Doctor Everyone Panic tweeted.  It seems like increased risk of severe disease could be circumstantial (one of the scientists in the article opined this, and scientists rarely speculate optimism), and the increased contaigiousness seems to be in part because the symptoms have shifted, so the higher-end R0 estimates are probably wrong.

(Also come on, there are still people here who are saying the vaccines don't inhibit transmission?)
 
2021-06-19 5:02:32 PM  

aerojockey: Eh, it's not good, but doesn't look like it's going to bring us back to ground zero like Doctor Everyone Panic tweeted.  It seems like increased risk of severe disease could be circumstantial (one of the scientists in the article opined this, and scientists rarely speculate optimism), and the increased contaigiousness seems to be in part because the symptoms have shifted, so the higher-end R0 estimates are probably wrong.

(Also come on, there are still people here who are saying the vaccines don't inhibit transmission?)


Yeah dr the everyone panic is roundly mocked by well everyone in ID, virology, and immunology.
 
2021-06-19 7:29:04 PM  

erik-k: The UK has actually passed the USA in number of people with both doses.


No it hasn't.  The population of the UK is 66 million or so.  140 million or so people in the US have gotten both doses.

If you are talking about percentages you'd be correct.
 
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