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(Vox)   America's Covid endgame may be at hand   (vox.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Vaccination, Vaccine, Immune system, Smallpox, percent vaccination rates, number of coronavirus cases, big element, herd immunity threshold  
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4143 clicks; posted to Main » on 04 May 2021 at 4:21 AM (9 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



103 Comments     (+0 »)
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2021-05-03 11:38:53 PM  
Complete optimistic horseschitt.
 
2021-05-04 1:11:17 AM  
This is just math - if R0 * (1 - (vaxrate * vaxeffectiveness)) is less than 1.0 the virus will burn itself out.  Given that the R0 for covid is estimated below 3 and the vaccine effectiveness is extremely high, a 65% vaccination rate probably does the job (especially given that some amount of unvaccinated people will have immunity from having covid).

Obviously there are distributional problems with some communities having lower vaccination rates but I have a difficult time finding my farks on that issue.
 
2021-05-04 1:31:20 AM  
Red states are still in Trump's finger-snap phase.
 
2021-05-04 4:25:28 AM  
Let's see what the long term effectiveness of the vaccines are before we start sucking our own dicks.
 
2021-05-04 4:30:34 AM  
Yeah, I'm thinking maybe wait until US covid deaths are below 1000 per day for a few months uninterrupted, along with each week's daily average going down in that same time frame, before we start planning any sort of victory parade.
 
2021-05-04 4:32:16 AM  
Oh, and make sure the tallies are done using real numbers, not "make Governor DeSantis look good" numbers.
 
2021-05-04 4:44:03 AM  
We have multiple effective, safe vaccines developed and distributed in record time, and now the serious question is becoming whether we can convince enough people to vaccinate so we can achieve herd immunity.  This is made more difficult by obvious bad actors saying absolute bullshiat to get attention and push their agenda.

It's so quintessentially American.
 
2021-05-04 4:46:14 AM  
This article is complete garbage, cites no scientific sources for the claim it makes all the while linking to expert opinions that have nothing to do with their claim.
 
2021-05-04 4:47:28 AM  
I suppose Elon Musk snapping and going on SNL is pretty close to how the movie ended.  I'm not sure who returns the infinity stones in this case though.
 
2021-05-04 4:50:52 AM  
The kingdom of heaven is at hand!

Clue - Kingdom of Heaven is at hand
Youtube imowsl1i0_s
 
2021-05-04 4:52:13 AM  

King Something: Yeah, I'm thinking maybe wait until US covid deaths are below 1000 per day for a few months uninterrupted, along with each week's daily average going down in that same time frame, before we start planning any sort of victory parade.


I totally agree.

Furthermore, it's imperative to not blindly accept at face value a pharmaceutical CEO's claims about "Covid seasons" or "booster vaccines" and let that dictate public health policy without solid peer reviewed evidence suggesting as such.
 
2021-05-04 4:59:59 AM  

OptionC: This is just math - if R0 * (1 - (vaxrate * vaxeffectiveness)) is less than 1.0 the virus will burn itself out.  Given that the R0 for covid is estimated below 3 and the vaccine effectiveness is extremely high, a 65% vaccination rate probably does the job (especially given that some amount of unvaccinated people will have immunity from having covid).

Obviously there are distributional problems with some communities having lower vaccination rates but I have a difficult time finding my farks on that issue.


I don't think it's just math. The reason is that the infamous "all other things being equal" conditional is never met. The risk of spreading the virus does depend upon behaviors.

At this point, it would make some sense to believe that those who indulge in the riskiest behavior are over-represented in those who have already gotten sick. Then we get about 60% vaccinated. We still have dropped the pace at which the virus is likely to spread.

So we still have a fair chance of dropping the over-all proportion of those infected, hopefully to a level where we can possibly up our game in contact tracing. So far, we've had very little success in targeted contact tracing and selective quarantine restrictions. And we've not done well with targeted testing for early detection of next round infections after a positive test.

We could do those things and drive the infection rate down even further.

One of the last big challenges will be larger households/families that have so far avoided infection but where someone in that family will now encounter the virus as things open up. But if we can drive down the infection rate (as in total number of people actively infected), we can be more aggressive in treating close contacts of people who turn up with fresh infections, including things like monoclonal anti-body therapies.

Those who are resisting getting the vaccine make it all much harder but there are measures that may become more practical if we can just avoid going nuts over the next 6 weeks.
 
2021-05-04 5:02:47 AM  

omg bbq: Let's see what the long term effectiveness of the vaccines are before we start sucking our own dicks.


It's already pretty clear from multiple sources that the vaccine will typically provide a few years worth of useful levels of immunity. The memory B cells and T cells stick around even when the level of circulating antibodies drop. There will be some exceptions but we can already project the typical response.
 
2021-05-04 5:13:31 AM  
Jesus Christ. There's never going to be 0 active cases. If that's what you're looking for before starting to feel some optimism, then you're in for a long and stressful life.

I've been "Mr. Shut Everything the fark Down and Just Cancel the 2020-2021 School Year And Try Again in the Fall Also fark You For Not Wearing  A Mask or Getting Your Shots" since day 1 , but the data in my state and several others have been clearly showing signs for optimism for well over two months now and the justification for keeping restrictions is fading quickly.
 
2021-05-04 5:15:55 AM  

Znuh: Complete optimistic horseschitt.


Has that statement been peer-reviewed?
 
2021-05-04 5:35:03 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-05-04 5:37:38 AM  

havocmike: Jesus Christ. There's never going to be 0 active cases. If that's what you're looking for before starting to feel some optimism, then you're in for a long and stressful life.

I've been "Mr. Shut Everything the fark Down and Just Cancel the 2020-2021 School Year And Try Again in the Fall Also fark You For Not Wearing  A Mask or Getting Your Shots" since day 1 , but the data in my state and several others have been clearly showing signs for optimism for well over two months now and the justification for keeping restrictions is fading quickly.


This is fark, unless you've hermetically sealed yourself in a capsule, 60' inside an Alaskan glacier, you're a "plague rat", and you will be frowned heavily upon, furthermore, any woe which may befall you will be 100% deserved, and more
 
2021-05-04 5:40:11 AM  

Cormee: Znuh: Complete optimistic horseschitt.

Has that statement been peer-reviewed?


A significant number of Farkers don't want the pandemic to end. I think it's because they became desperate for catastrophic numbers of deaths on Trump's watch and find it hard to get out of that way of thinking.

Meanwhile In the UK, where vaccination rates approach Israel's (64% of adults have had one dose, 28% have had two) numbers are also plummeting.

There are currently 1,350 people in hospital with COVID in the UK, of whom 185 are receiving ventilation. In mid January there were 39,000 in hospital and 4,066 ventilated. The seven-day average for deaths in Scotland (I don't have the UK figures handy) is 1.7, for a population of 5.5m. Still behind Israel, but converging.
 
2021-05-04 5:41:02 AM  
This pandemic is here forever and I hope it is because I don't want to go back to work.
 
2021-05-04 5:42:04 AM  

The Googles Do Nothing: This pandemic is here forever and I hope it is because I don't want to go back to work.


Gawd. We don't want you back at work either. Farking microwave fish eater.
 
2021-05-04 5:46:26 AM  
Now this is how you troll the doomers.
 
2021-05-04 5:57:04 AM  

mistahtom: This article is complete garbage, cites no scientific sources for the claim it makes all the while linking to expert opinions that have nothing to do with their claim.


Yeah, stopped reading when they mentioned Israel's counter-measures; our plague rats won't let that fly here.

/comparing apples to road apples
 
2021-05-04 5:59:51 AM  

orbister: Cormee: Znuh: Complete optimistic horseschitt.

Has that statement been peer-reviewed?

A significant number of Farkers don't want the pandemic to end. I think it's because they became desperate for catastrophic numbers of deaths on Trump's watch and find it hard to get out of that way of thinking.

Meanwhile In the UK, where vaccination rates approach Israel's (64% of adults have had one dose, 28% have had two) numbers are also plummeting.

There are currently 1,350 people in hospital with COVID in the UK, of whom 185 are receiving ventilation. In mid January there were 39,000 in hospital and 4,066 ventilated. The seven-day average for deaths in Scotland (I don't have the UK figures handy) is 1.7, for a population of 5.5m. Still behind Israel, but converging.


Yes, the Israeli and UK numbers are very encouraging, it was great to see there was no spike after the UK lifted restrictions a few weeks back.
 
2021-05-04 6:06:31 AM  

Cormee: havocmike: Jesus Christ. There's never going to be 0 active cases. If that's what you're looking for before starting to feel some optimism, then you're in for a long and stressful life.

I've been "Mr. Shut Everything the fark Down and Just Cancel the 2020-2021 School Year And Try Again in the Fall Also fark You For Not Wearing  A Mask or Getting Your Shots" since day 1 , but the data in my state and several others have been clearly showing signs for optimism for well over two months now and the justification for keeping restrictions is fading quickly.

This is fark, unless you've hermetically sealed yourself in a capsule, 60' inside an Alaskan glacier, you're a "plague rat", and you will be frowned heavily upon, furthermore, any woe which may befall you will be 100% deserved, and more


Even worse, some of them will come up with strawmen to go after rather than exercise basic caution.
 
2021-05-04 6:13:09 AM  

LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers. people of average intelligence.


People like you are the reason the numbers got so high in the first place.
 
2021-05-04 6:19:29 AM  
Never underestimate the Republican drive to collaborate with the enemy.
 
2021-05-04 6:25:34 AM  

Cormee: havocmike: Jesus Christ. There's never going to be 0 active cases. If that's what you're looking for before starting to feel some optimism, then you're in for a long and stressful life.

I've been "Mr. Shut Everything the fark Down and Just Cancel the 2020-2021 School Year And Try Again in the Fall Also fark You For Not Wearing  A Mask or Getting Your Shots" since day 1 , but the data in my state and several others have been clearly showing signs for optimism for well over two months now and the justification for keeping restrictions is fading quickly.

This is fark, unless you've hermetically sealed yourself in a capsule, 60' inside an Alaskan glacier, you're a "plague rat", and you will be frowned heavily upon, furthermore, any woe which may befall you will be 100% deserved, and more


Alternatively, take the vaccine and wear a mask, and just generally be a good neighbor to those around you instead of being a selfish jerk.

But your preposterous exaggeration is right on target.
 
2021-05-04 6:33:34 AM  
As long as America is safe the rest of the world will be ok.
 
2021-05-04 6:39:19 AM  
Oh my goodness. What will all the Fark doomsayers have to do with their time if this comes to fruition.
 
2021-05-04 6:47:17 AM  

phooeypapa: Oh my goodness. What will all the Fark doomsayers have to do with their time if this comes to fruition.


Ignore you?

Capital idea actually.
 
2021-05-04 6:58:27 AM  

Cormee: orbister: There are currently 1,350 people in hospital with COVID in the UK, of whom 185 are receiving ventilation. In mid January there were 39,000 in hospital and 4,066 ventilated. The seven-day average for deaths in Scotland (I don't have the UK figures handy) is 1.7, for a population of 5.5m. Still behind Israel, but converging.

Yes, the Israeli and UK numbers are very encouraging, it was great to see there was no spike after the UK lifted restrictions a few weeks back.


We're running a couple of weeks of unlocking behind England up here in the frozen north, which has been a little frustrating but also reassuring when no disaster ensued. My main worry now is that the cretin in Downing Street will unlock foreign tourism - inward and outward - long before it's safe to do so.
 
2021-05-04 7:01:08 AM  

phooeypapa: Oh my goodness. What will all the Fark doomsayers have to do with their time if this comes to fruition.


I'm sure they'll find something to prognosticate ominously about. Meteorite strike, possibly?
 
2021-05-04 7:08:52 AM  
I'm getting my second shot of Moderna today, and am already noting that I've been less concerned about whatever bullshiat the Fark trolls are blathering on about.
 
2021-05-04 7:09:14 AM  
If we can't reach herd immunity by increasing the numerator, we'll get there by decreasing the denominator.
 
2021-05-04 7:21:06 AM  

LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers.


Difficulty - when you try to troll people who are smarter than you are, they know they're being trolled.
 
2021-05-04 7:24:53 AM  

Dr. DJ Duckhunt: Red states are still in Trump's finger-snap phase.


Yes, Michigan is going splendidly.
 
2021-05-04 7:27:37 AM  

mistahtom: This article is complete garbage, cites no scientific sources for the claim it makes all the while linking to expert opinions that have nothing to do with their claim.


But Israel has it under control with indoor masking and vaccine passports. Easy peasy.
 
2021-05-04 7:31:52 AM  

mofa: I'm getting my second shot of Moderna today, and am already noting that I've been less concerned about whatever bullshiat the Fark trolls are blathering on about.


I get AZ #2 next week, but it's the actual facts which are most reassuring. Mind you, the doomers' predictions have always been daft. One of the still-active ones was confidently predicting 3m dead in the US by election day and also posted repeatedly about the impossibility of ever developing a coronavirus vaccine.
 
2021-05-04 7:32:48 AM  

jso2897: LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers.

Difficulty - when you try to troll people who are smarter than you are, they know they're being trolled.


And right on cue ...
 
2021-05-04 7:33:41 AM  
Meanwhile, the Coronavirus isn't listening to any of your theories, and is making it's own plans.
I guess we'll see how it goes.
It's kind of sad to see America's pathetic "adults" revealing to the world what a nation of snotty, spoiled, selfish children we are - but then, we revealed that in the most embarrassing possible way when we elected Trump, so that cat's out of the bag at any rate.
It's going to be a long, long time before anyone respects Americans again - but 40% are drunk, methed-up, inbred trailer trash who would rather be feared than respected anyway - so they don't care.
A whole nation of snotty, spoiled, substance abusing toddlers.
 
2021-05-04 7:35:25 AM  

orbister: jso2897: LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers.

Difficulty - when you try to troll people who are smarter than you are, they know they're being trolled.

And right on cue ...


Lol, U trol me.
 
2021-05-04 7:39:35 AM  

orbister: A significant number of Farkers don't want the pandemic to end. I think it's because they became desperate for catastrophic numbers of deaths on Trump's watch and find it hard to get out of that way of thinking.


To be fair, that's already a "Mission Accomplished", sparky!
 
2021-05-04 7:43:41 AM  

PunGent: LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers. people of average intelligence.

People like you are the reason the numbers got so high in the first place.


If you want to continue ignoring any kind of positive news about Covid, go ahead. Just don't try to pretend you're even close to smart enough to think you know me.

People like you is why Fark sucks so bad now.
 
2021-05-04 7:44:51 AM  

ZestyMordant: orbister: A significant number of Farkers don't want the pandemic to end. I think it's because they became desperate for catastrophic numbers of deaths on Trump's watch and find it hard to get out of that way of thinking.

To be fair, that's already a "Mission Accomplished", sparky!


Hey - a half million is just a drop in the bucket to what his role model attained.
His fans are still hungry for more!
 
2021-05-04 7:45:49 AM  

LaChanz: PunGent: LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers. people of average intelligence.

People like you are the reason the numbers got so high in the first place.

If you want to continue ignoring any kind of positive news about Covid, go ahead. Just don't try to pretend you're even close to smart enough to think you know me.

People like you is why Fark sucks so bad now.


Yet here you are. Isn't there somewhere better you could be?
 
2021-05-04 7:46:41 AM  

jso2897: It's going to be a long, long time before anyone respects Americans again - but 40% are drunk, methed-up, inbred trailer trash who would rather be feared than respected anyway - so they don't care.


Don't forget the angry old people living in remote mountain areas and screaming at the rest of the country.
 
2021-05-04 7:47:53 AM  

Cormee: This is fark, unless you've hermetically sealed yourself in a capsule, 60' inside an Alaskan glacier, you're a "plague rat", and you will be frowned heavily upon, furthermore, any woe which may befall you will be 100% deserved, and more


Oh, sob a little more for us. Just put on a f*cking mask and stop whining.
 
2021-05-04 7:47:56 AM  

jso2897: LaChanz: PunGent: LaChanz: Now this is how you troll the doomers. people of average intelligence.

People like you are the reason the numbers got so high in the first place.

If you want to continue ignoring any kind of positive news about Covid, go ahead. Just don't try to pretend you're even close to smart enough to think you know me.

People like you is why Fark sucks so bad now.

Yet here you are. Isn't there somewhere better you could be?


Why? You writing a book?
 
2021-05-04 7:48:49 AM  
I got my first shot on Saturday, and other than some soreness at the injection site that evening, was 100%.

The next two days, I felt happier and more motivated than I had for a year. I actually began to believe that we are turning a corner and that it may be ending eventually. I didn't think that it's over, but getting vaccinated was REAL. It was tangible. There was an actual improvement. I don't think I had realized how stressed and borderline depressed I had been over the past 14 months. Just having a glimmer of hope was amazing.

Yesterday evening, we got an email from my son's school. A positive case in his class. Class is closed for two weeks and we have to go get tested. Again.

And it all came crashing back to reality
 
2021-05-04 7:51:28 AM  

orbister: jso2897: It's going to be a long, long time before anyone respects Americans again - but 40% are drunk, methed-up, inbred trailer trash who would rather be feared than respected anyway - so they don't care.

Don't forget the angry old people living in remote mountain areas and screaming at the rest of the country.


I haven't.
 
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