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(Al Jazeera)   Russia is challenging US hegemony in fighter aircraft sales, potentially pitting Su-57s against F-35s in the arms markets of the world. Yes, folks, it's the classic battle of Coal Rolling Planes versus Non-working Budget Drains   (aljazeera.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, United Arab Emirates, Middle East, Vladimir Putin, Egypt, Israel, Fighter aircraft, Turkey, Arab World  
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1474 clicks; posted to Main » on 03 May 2021 at 2:45 PM (4 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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4 days ago  
So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.
 
4 days ago  
Right you are, Kenny.
 
4 days ago  

b2theory: So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.



The Russians and Chinese could sell some to the Saudis to roll down hill towards Houthi rebels.  It'd be a lot cheaper than buying planes that "fly" for Saudi princes wearing freshly-tailored flight suits to have their pictures taken in.
 
4 days ago  
Translation: Russia really needs money.
 
4 days ago  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Translation: Russia really needs money.


I doubt they're selling new production, likely pulling them from Service for fast cash.
 
4 days ago  
Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.
 
4 days ago  
We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.
 
4 days ago  
Imagine if we stopped selling weapons of war to other countries?
 
4 days ago  
It's going to be end of the line for manned combat aircraft very soon.  Combat drones are the future.
 
4 days ago  

Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.


Any decent future fighter will be optionally piloted. Pilot in the loop + AI will be an absolute terror to fight against, which is why Russia, China, and the US are all putting huge amounts of R&D into machine learning.

The F-22 is great, but it isn't the future anymore.
 
4 days ago  

Fissile: It's going to be end of the line for manned combat aircraft very soon.  Combat drones are the future.


I did the Warthunder April 1 special event. Combat drones get shot down really easily.
 
4 days ago  

dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.


If there weren't sanctions on Russia, they could make a killing selling AK-47s, AKMs, 74s, 100s, 12s, Dragonovs, etc, etc.

Shame they had to go and piss of the world - they really could be a premier small arms exporter.
 
4 days ago  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Translation: Russia really needs money.


That happens when your main cash export is natgas and oil, with your biggest consumers/purchasers of same rapidly replacing their need for those commodities with green alternatives.
 
4 days ago  

FormlessOne: Imagine if we stopped selling weapons of war to other countries?


But if we don't sell them weapons with which to threaten/kill their neighbors, how can we get them to sign peace treaties with nations they were never at war with?
 
4 days ago  

BrundleFlyForAWhiteGuy: Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.

Any decent future fighter will be optionally piloted. Pilot in the loop + AI will be an absolute terror to fight against, which is why Russia, China, and the US are all putting huge amounts of R&D into machine learning.

The F-22 is great, but it isn't the future anymore.


Fair counterpoint... 
I am curious what kind of drone wizardy is in play these days. Area 51 has clearly ramped up for the mission as well...
 
4 days ago  

Somaticasual: BrundleFlyForAWhiteGuy: Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.

Any decent future fighter will be optionally piloted. Pilot in the loop + AI will be an absolute terror to fight against, which is why Russia, China, and the US are all putting huge amounts of R&D into machine learning.

The F-22 is great, but it isn't the future anymore.

Fair counterpoint... 
I am curious what kind of drone wizardy is in play these days. Area 51 has clearly ramped up for the mission as well...


Wait, you didn't hear?  They found another stargate defense weapon, like the one at the south pole.
 
4 days ago  
Does the ability to pull 2x more G's in a drone fighter outweigh the skill of a pilot?  I dunno...
 
4 days ago  
So Russia is going to get Turkey to finance the Su-57 after India pulled out?
 
4 days ago  

Private_Citizen: If there weren't sanctions on Russia, they could make a killing selling AK-47s, AKMs, 74s, 100s, 12s, Dragonovs, etc, etc.


I dont know about any of that, the world is already saturated with their small arms.
 
4 days ago  

b2theory: So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.


You'd think China could compete in prize with their planes. But Sweden has tried that with the Gripen with mixed results. They offer a relatively low prize compared to other competitors but don't get too many bites. Sure, some of the other planes have some better features. But if for instance, a couple of third world countries, like say... Peru and Ecuador, get into another of their three weeks wars, is it better to have a fleet of a dozen Mirages or to use the better prize to get 20 Gripens in the air? I mean, for the most part, a lot of these countries don't have a ton of money for even training pilots by having them fly enough hours throughout the year. So what if instead of using the prize difference to buy more planes, these countries pocket the difference in prize/maintenance to educate better pilots by going with Chinese or Swede planes. That may actually be better than splurging on the more high tech.

The Swedes did get Brazil to bite on their lower cost plane by assembling them in country. Brazil technically also has a deal to assemble some planes if they get other South American air forces to buy. So maybe they can get more bites on their lower cost fighter business model. But I'm not seeing it.
 
4 days ago  

dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.


AK-47 knock-offs are made in many places. The Kalashnikov design is totally not high technology. If you have a 1947 era machine shop, you can build them. That accounts for the popularity of the design and explains many of its problems as well.
 
4 days ago  
Selling weapons of any sort to UAE or Saudi is a huge mistake.  I don't care how much dough they have.  We are effectively selling our weapons to our enemies.  When the Arab states run out of oil, they go back to being a shiathole desert no one cares about. I wish I would be around to see it.
 
4 days ago  

FormlessOne: Imagine if we stopped selling weapons of war to other countries?


Unfortunately, that's not how things work.

We could stop selling weapons of war to our allies, and we could, somehow, perhaps also get others of our allies like the UK, France, Germany, etc., to also stop selling weapons to allied nations.

That wouldn't stop war in the slightest.

Unfriendly nations, like Russia and China among others, would continue to sell to their existing customers, who tend to be groups/nations that are opposed to (in theory) us or our allies. Those nations would suddenly enjoy a massive technological and supply advantage, turning what may have been a stalemate with a few skirmishes into a bloodbath very quickly.

Alternatively, seeing the sudden void, said unfriendly nations might opt to step in and use the opportunity to not only pick up the slack, but to also use it to sway friendly governments/nations against us because we stopped assisting them with maintaining the means to protect themselves from hostile forces.

In that event, suddenly all those nations that looked to us to help defend them and to ensure that they were secure have to face the fact that we're no longer willing to help them/sell to them, but our "enemies" are, and the question of whether they can trust us to help them should they need it becomes a very big elephant in the room.

The only way that arms sales will ever stop is if, somehow, by some miracle, everyone stopped selling and, potentially, by committing to step in and fight off threats to said nations or groups on their behalf since we're not willing to equip and empower them to do it themselves.

Or, if everyone quit selling and we somehow miracled all evil, strife, hatred, bigotry, racism, resource scarcity, economic hardship, and so on out of existence.
 
4 days ago  

kbronsito: b2theory: So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.

You'd think China could compete in prize with their planes. But Sweden has tried that with the Gripen with mixed results. They offer a relatively low prize compared to other competitors but don't get too many bites. Sure, some of the other planes have some better features. But if for instance, a couple of third world countries, like say... Peru and Ecuador, get into another of their three weeks wars, is it better to have a fleet of a dozen Mirages or to use the better prize to get 20 Gripens in the air? I mean, for the most part, a lot of these countries don't have a ton of money for even training pilots by having them fly enough hours throughout the year. So what if instead of using the prize difference to buy more planes, these countries pocket the difference in prize/maintenance to educate better pilots by going with Chinese or Swede planes. That may actually be better than splurging on the more high tech.

The Swedes did get Brazil to bite on their lower cost plane by assembling them in country. Brazil technically also has a deal to assemble some planes if they get other South American air forces to buy. So maybe they can get more bites on their lower cost fighter business model. But I'm not seeing it.


* price

Sorry about that.

What prize plane may look like

cbsnews2.cbsistatic.comView Full Size
 
4 days ago  

Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.


Yes, all of the equipment is in storage but it isn't worth it. They studied restarting production and it would have been wildly expensive. The last F-22s made were more than double the cost of the F-35 and a start would have been even more expensive.

For what it's worth, some of the sensors on the F-35 are better than those on the F-22 or they are non-existent on the Raptor. I am also pretty sure the F-35 stealth coatings are more robust and cheaper to maintain.
 
4 days ago  

Private_Citizen: dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.

If there weren't sanctions on Russia, they could make a killing selling AK-47s, AKMs, 74s, 100s, 12s, Dragonovs, etc, etc.

Shame they had to go and piss of the world - they really could be a premier small arms exporter.


High thinking CEO types don't want to wade into small margin commodity items like guns.  You make millions per plane, but have to sell tens of thousands to make millions with guns.  MBAs get taught it's okay to wade through tens and twenties, but only to actually pick up hundos.  Gotta get that hockey stick margin line!

But us stupids can see the tens and twenties everywhere but they can't.
 
4 days ago  

IAtetheChupacabra: Does the ability to pull 2x more G's in a drone fighter outweigh the skill of a pilot?  I dunno...



I have been informed that the MiG-28 can go a 4G negative dive. Can the drone fighter do so also while inverted?  Maybe take a Polaroid picture?
 
4 days ago  

b2theory: So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.


The article also explains that Russia sells to nations that USA refuses to deal with.

Isn't the only nation that actually had a choice, and still went with Russia, India?

Interesting that Iran are now exempt from UN sanctions. Those SUs and MIG are probably very good in capable hands, and undoubtly better that F14s and whatever Iran has mocked up.

India showed that the Mig-21 could beat the F-16 against Pakistan, because their pilots where good.

Dunno if Russia will export their good stuff though, they traditionally haven't.
 
4 days ago  

dothemath: Private_Citizen: If there weren't sanctions on Russia, they could make a killing selling AK-47s, AKMs, 74s, 100s, 12s, Dragonovs, etc, etc.

I dont know about any of that, the world is already saturated with their small arms.


The US will always buy guns, and right now that's ESPECIALLY true.

From the Wikipedia article on Russia's current rifle (the AK-12):
Fark user imageView Full Size

We were a huge customer until they went and got invasion happy.
 
4 days ago  
"Russia is challenging US hegemony in fighter aircraft sales, potentially pitting Su-57s against F-35s in the arms markets of the world"

Aside from the fact that TFA's two major examples are countries who've been denied their requests to buy F-35s, causing them to sulk to Russia in retaliation, spot-on headline, Subby.
 
4 days ago  

toddalmighty: Right you are, Kenny.


"What are these people running from? They're not! They're running to the world's toughest competition in town!"

I really miss that show.


external-content.duckduckgo.comView Full Size
 
4 days ago  

Buckerlin: dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.

AK-47 knock-offs are made in many places. The Kalashnikov design is totally not high technology. If you have a 1947 era machine shop, you can build them. That accounts for the popularity of the design and explains many of its problems as well.


It doesn't even really take a 1947-era machine shop, but rather basic machine tools in general.

The hardest part of the gun to make is the barrel because of rifling, but, depending on how you do it, even that doesn't require all that much in the way of special tooling, just the specific bit itself.

Homemade barrel rifling machine
Youtube ihPFjuxBjPo
 
4 days ago  

Private_Citizen: Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: Translation: Russia really needs money.

I doubt they're selling new production, likely pulling them from Service for fast cash.


I'm thinking export versions.

Arms is one of Russia's largest exports. But the things they export, though named the same, are export versions without the tech they have themselves.

I know it's a fun meme to make fun of them, but if someone thinks that Russia has suddenly forgotten how to build airplanes etc., then they're rather naive.
 
4 days ago  

aungen: Somaticasual: BrundleFlyForAWhiteGuy: Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.

Any decent future fighter will be optionally piloted. Pilot in the loop + AI will be an absolute terror to fight against, which is why Russia, China, and the US are all putting huge amounts of R&D into machine learning.

The F-22 is great, but it isn't the future anymore.

Fair counterpoint... 
I am curious what kind of drone wizardy is in play these days. Area 51 has clearly ramped up for the mission as well...

Wait, you didn't hear?  They found another stargate defense weapon, like the one at the south pole.


ZPM: The REAL energy conspiracy those fatcats on wallstreet don't want you to know about...
(obviously, click to read more)
 
4 days ago  
To add to my previous post, despite what a lot of people think, making firearms is not that complicated or difficult, and doesn't take a lot of fancy equipment.  CNC machines and so on just make it easier, and the end product much more professional-looking.
 
4 days ago  

b2theory: Somaticasual: We still have the production line equipment from the F-22, don't we? Can't we just pretend the F-35 program never happened and make like...5 of those for the same unit price.

Yes, all of the equipment is in storage but it isn't worth it. They studied restarting production and it would have been wildly expensive. The last F-22s made were more than double the cost of the F-35 and a start would have been even more expensive.

For what it's worth, some of the sensors on the F-35 are better than those on the F-22 or they are non-existent on the Raptor. I am also pretty sure the F-35 stealth coatings are more robust and cheaper to maintain.


In seriousness, thanks for the breakdown on why that might not be a viable option. I didn't realize the costs had run over so badly on the F-22s. That makes sense. Definitely another tick mark in favor of cheaper drones without risking  the pilot lives...
 
4 days ago  

Ketchuponsteak: b2theory: So the F-35 alone (not counting F-15/16/18 sales) has roughly ~800 units on order outside the US and Russia <checks article> sells 24 SU-35s and 46 MIG-29s.

Hegemony officially challenged.


Actually, there is something of interest here. Where is China in all of this? Both the J-10 and JF-17 are very capable aircraft. It isn't like China hasn't sought to export both.

The article also explains that Russia sells to nations that USA refuses to deal with.

Isn't the only nation that actually had a choice, and still went with Russia, India?

Interesting that Iran are now exempt from UN sanctions. Those SUs and MIG are probably very good in capable hands, and undoubtly better that F14s and whatever Iran has mocked up.

India showed that the Mig-21 could beat the F-16 against Pakistan, because their pilots where good.

Dunno if Russia will export their good stuff though, they traditionally haven't.



Some may also include nations that the US *refused* (past tense). Once you train your pilots and mechanics on the Russian stuff, it's hard to switch, even if the EU and EU are willing to sell you stuff now. Then there's also a few countries that do keep a mishmash of suppliers on purpose. They may be trying to avoid to become dependent on one or two military weapons suppliers. So they may turn down a bid solely to try to maintain some calculated balance in the purchases. And of course, there's always kickbacks. A lot of buyers are fully dependent on whether you are willing to bribe the right military officials.
 
4 days ago  

Private_Citizen: dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.

If there weren't sanctions on Russia, they could make a killing selling AK-47s, AKMs, 74s, 100s, 12s, Dragonovs, etc, etc.

Shame they had to go and piss of the world - they really could be a premier small arms exporter.


There isn't sanctions on Russia really.

And most of those weapons around the world are copies.
 
4 days ago  

Kit Fister: Buckerlin: dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.

AK-47 knock-offs are made in many places. The Kalashnikov design is totally not high technology. If you have a 1947 era machine shop, you can build them. That accounts for the popularity of the design and explains many of its problems as well.

It doesn't even really take a 1947-era machine shop, but rather basic machine tools in general.

The hardest part of the gun to make is the barrel because of rifling, but, depending on how you do it, even that doesn't require all that much in the way of special tooling, just the specific bit itself.

[iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/ihPFjuxB​jPo?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3​A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=0&enablejsap​i=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&​widgetid=1]


I would think boring a true bore would be the hardest part.  And annealing it such that once you start shooting with it, the barrel doesn't warp into a macaroni.  Rifling doesn't seem so bad.
 
4 days ago  

Kit Fister: To add to my previous post, despite what a lot of people think, making firearms is not that complicated or difficult, and doesn't take a lot of fancy equipment.  CNC machines and so on just make it easier, and the end product much more professional-looking.


How are you boring a barrel?
 
4 days ago  
Russian customer support for their aircraft makes COMCAST customer service look outstanding.  Good luck getting spares.
 
4 days ago  
OUR product is gonna be the F-35?

Oh man. We are SO F*CKED!
 
4 days ago  

Somaticasual: b2theory: Somaticasual: 

In seriousness, thanks for the breakdown on why that might not be a viable option. I didn't realize the costs had run over so badly on the F-22s. That makes sense. Definitely another tick mark in favor of cheaper drones without risking  the pilot lives...


The F-22 wasn't so much a story of cost over runs but the fighter death spiral. As they kept dropping the total number of aircraft produced the unit cost kept creeping up until it became outrageous and they killed the program. Same with the B-2.

For what it's worth, ALL fighters are expensive. The unit cost the Eurofighter is somewhere between $125-175M. The F-15Xs are over 80M.
 
4 days ago  
 I mean, Russia can try, but they've got what, 12 prototypes built of the '57? With no actual service date in sight.

The F-35, whatever its issues, has been built by the hundreds and seen active combat for several years now.

As for Russia building tons of AK's and Dragunovs for everyone, they can try, and in some cases do, but that's not really as easy as it sounds. Dozens of other countries can, and do, make those same guns. Existing stockpiles are vast. For anyone wanting something that just goes "bang", Russia can't compete on cost. For anyone wanting a top of the line high end muppet mower, well, that's not a cheap AKM anymore. A Dragunov is a several thousand dollar rifle, that is not a cheap gun, easily on par with something like a SCAR-H to produce, and there are many simply better guns on the market than the Dragunov for that same cost. These guns just aren't as cheap or easy to make as many think they are. Some parts can be made cheaply and easily, but others cannot (and these generally people have to salvage from existing guns when making stuff like Home Depot Shovel Guns), and the guns were designed around being built with cheap (but skilled) labor in large centralized factories with extensive logistical setup and mid 20th century tooling and technology. Labor rates, technology, processes materials, etc have changed. It costs more to make that cheap AK today than it did 10/20/50 years ago, individual unit price on a proper AK for a bulk government purchase these days is in the range of $500, these days, not $50.
 
4 days ago  

noitsnot: Kit Fister: Buckerlin: dothemath: Yeah, good luck with all that.

Its too bad they practically gave away millions of AK-47's to all of their backwater client states during the cold war. That could have brought in some decent coin.

AK-47 knock-offs are made in many places. The Kalashnikov design is totally not high technology. If you have a 1947 era machine shop, you can build them. That accounts for the popularity of the design and explains many of its problems as well.

It doesn't even really take a 1947-era machine shop, but rather basic machine tools in general.

The hardest part of the gun to make is the barrel because of rifling, but, depending on how you do it, even that doesn't require all that much in the way of special tooling, just the specific bit itself.

[iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/ihPFjuxB​jPo?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3​A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=0&enablejsap​i=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&​widgetid=1]

I would think boring a true bore would be the hardest part.  And annealing it such that once you start shooting with it, the barrel doesn't warp into a macaroni.  Rifling doesn't seem so bad.


noitsnot: Kit Fister: To add to my previous post, despite what a lot of people think, making firearms is not that complicated or difficult, and doesn't take a lot of fancy equipment.  CNC machines and so on just make it easier, and the end product much more professional-looking.

How are you boring a barrel?


The youtube example I shared is of a person already using a piece of hardened steel tubing:

Homemade barrel rifling machine, rifling the Kolt380 barrel
Youtube twwQbpwZz9w


I've also seen it done with a lathe and rebar.

Personally, I'd stick to barrel blanks which have already been annealed and a good lathe.

Besides, for things like the AK, accuracy and whatever has never been its top selling point, so I doubt that anyone's going to worry about just how true the bore is so long as it shoots.
 
4 days ago  
Another person who's made a barrel out of plumbing pipe:

9mm Barrel from Plumbing Pipe (TIS138)
Youtube 4v75YZEM7fs
 
4 days ago  

pacochu: IAtetheChupacabra: Does the ability to pull 2x more G's in a drone fighter outweigh the skill of a pilot?  I dunno...


I have been informed that the MiG-28 can go a 4G negative dive. Can the drone fighter do so also while inverted?  Maybe take a Polaroid picture?


Only while communicating!  You know...
 
4 days ago  
You can buy two SU-57's for the price of one F-35
 
4 days ago  

MIRV888: Selling weapons of any sort to UAE or Saudi is a huge mistake.  I don't care how much dough they have.  We are effectively selling our weapons to our enemies.  When the Arab states run out of oil, they go back to being a shiathole desert no one cares about. I wish I would be around to see it.


And their maintenance will cease, and they will have hanger queens that can't fly again without our support.
 
4 days ago  
Either way, homemade guns are more regular than many people think, and some of them even look pretty damn good/professional:

Fark user imageView Full Size


Fark user imageView Full Size


Fark user imageView Full Size


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
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