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(One Mile at a Time)   The case of the aviator incubator: Of 47 plane passengers who tested Covid-positive, 22 of them were negative before they got on their flight, and tested positive only after 12 days of hotel quarantine   (onemileatatime.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Hotel, Quarantine, Hong Kong, Hong Kong International Airport, Andrew Martin, Coronavirus, Severe acute respiratory syndrome, passengers test positive  
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578 clicks; posted to STEM » on 20 Apr 2021 at 2:10 AM (2 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



18 Comments     (+0 »)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2021-04-20 2:50:58 AM  
Worst. High score. Ever.

So there were roughly 4 days between the pre-flight negative tests and 25 post-arrival positive tests, then 12 days of quarantine before almost 25 more positive tests.No matter how you cut the numbers of who was infected when, that's several kinds of horrifying.
 
2021-04-20 3:38:26 AM  
FTA:

"This is a good reminder to continue taking precautions when flying - your chances of catching coronavirus on a plane are somewhere between one in 27 million [lying airline industry funded study's claim], and 47 in 188 [this awful anomaly]."

/Helpful information.
 
2021-04-20 4:00:24 AM  
The worst-worst-worst case scenario (unlikley but not impossible) would be that there is a variant with a really long incubation period, like how 12 months ago the period between infection and detection was like 27 days (or so). We don't need another variant like the undetectable one from France and if there is one creeping along the same evilutionary path, we're gonna have a hard time making a vaccine for it. Since there is a lot of convergent evolution going on in Covid's spikes, there could be convergent evolution in other traits, too. The comforting part being that "longer to detect" is probably, genotypically speaking, very different than "undetectable."

The best-best-best case scenario is that hotels encourage the spread of Covid, so we need to give everyone their own room and prevent unvaccinated children from traveling by air (because they cannot be separated from their parents).
 
2021-04-20 5:54:27 AM  
I'm still at a loss as to why anyone needs to fly anywhere during a pandemic.
 
2021-04-20 7:08:39 AM  
They really need to do sequencing on each and every person who tested positive.
You want to understand how many different independent strains are represented in that set. It should be possible to create a connection map to establish which people infected each other.

Possibly, they all share a single source of infection, one superspreader that got them all. That's probably not it.

If they find say 6 different distinct lineages of the virus, that would say something about the ineffectiveness of their pre-screening, as would finding an even larger number of lineages. There's also a lot that could be done with seating maps and looking at who is staying with whom during their quarantine. There's much to be learned.
 
2021-04-20 7:20:38 AM  

Bennie Crabtree: The worst-worst-worst case scenario (unlikley but not impossible) would be that there is a variant with a really long incubation period, like how 12 months ago the period between infection and detection was like 27 days (or so). We don't need another variant like the undetectable one from France and if there is one creeping along the same evilutionary path, we're gonna have a hard time making a vaccine for it. Since there is a lot of convergent evolution going on in Covid's spikes, there could be convergent evolution in other traits, too. The comforting part being that "longer to detect" is probably, genotypically speaking, very different than "undetectable."

The best-best-best case scenario is that hotels encourage the spread of Covid, so we need to give everyone their own room and prevent unvaccinated children from traveling by air (because they cannot be separated from their parents).


I think study of the Brazilian P1 variant showed it was more like 20 days rather than 14 to detect 95% of case's. It wouldn't surprise me if other variants were similar but have not been studied yet.
 
2021-04-20 7:21:48 AM  
I seem to recall talking specifically about this a year ago vis a vis aymptomatic infections taking longer to begin and end.
 
2021-04-20 7:29:41 AM  

gyorg: Bennie Crabtree: The worst-worst-worst case scenario (unlikley but not impossible) would be that there is a variant with a really long incubation period, like how 12 months ago the period between infection and detection was like 27 days (or so). We don't need another variant like the undetectable one from France and if there is one creeping along the same evilutionary path, we're gonna have a hard time making a vaccine for it. Since there is a lot of convergent evolution going on in Covid's spikes, there could be convergent evolution in other traits, too. The comforting part being that "longer to detect" is probably, genotypically speaking, very different than "undetectable."

The best-best-best case scenario is that hotels encourage the spread of Covid, so we need to give everyone their own room and prevent unvaccinated children from traveling by air (because they cannot be separated from their parents).

I think study of the Brazilian P1 variant showed it was more like 20 days rather than 14 to detect 95% of case's. It wouldn't surprise me if other variants were similar but have not been studied yet.


Which means that qiarantine didnt work, and explains why some countries require a month.

This virus is an old style killer disease, and we're the numbers arent worse.
 
2021-04-20 7:34:27 AM  
external-content.duckduckgo.comView Full Size
 
2021-04-20 7:42:55 AM  

Stibium: I seem to recall talking specifically about this a year ago vis a vis aymptomatic infections taking longer to begin and end.


Is this where the mutations are taking place? Do we have any idea?
 
2021-04-20 8:22:43 AM  
This has to be either one of those articles written by AI or squeezed through a translation app.
 
2021-04-20 9:06:50 AM  

Nidiot: I'm still at a loss as to why anyone needs to fly anywhere during a pandemic.


Because driving for two days to fix a customer's equipment is not acceptable to them.
Plus, it's incredibly dangerous to drive vs flying. I don't like it, but it is what it is.
Here's a pic of the rockies from yesterday for your non traveling enjoyment. 
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2021-04-20 11:27:36 AM  
TangoDown:
Here's a pic of the rockies from yesterday for your non traveling enjoyment. 
[Fark user image 425x566]


What is this, a mountain range for ANTS??!
 
2021-04-20 12:12:37 PM  

wademh: If they find say 6 different distinct lineages of the virus, that would say something about the ineffectiveness of their pre-screening, as would finding an even larger number of lineages. There's also a lot that could be done with seating maps and looking at who is staying with whom during their quarantine. There's much to be learned.


Exactly.  People had papers showing negative test results.  That's not the same thing as having negative test results.  Although the distribution of cases in the airplane suggests a superspreader event.
 
2021-04-20 1:13:16 PM  

Embden.Meyerhof: TangoDown:
Here's a pic of the rockies from yesterday for your non traveling enjoyment. 
[Fark user image 425x566]

What is this, a mountain range for ANTS??!


I promise you they looked bigger in person.
 
2021-04-20 2:01:22 PM  
FTFA: A couple of weeks after the flight, a total of 47 passengers have tested positive for coronavirus.

You can test positive, I'm told, from 3-5 days after exposure. Cab rides, hotel employees, waiting around for your baggage. All non-flight opportunities to become infected, even with a 14-day quarantine.

Not saying they didn't get it on a long flight, just saying that there might well be other opportunities.
 
2021-04-20 3:49:23 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: We don't need another variant like the undetectable one from France


I live right where that was first detected so I'm getting a kick...

I know two people who I think it's likely had this, but it hasn't made headlines since first appearing and doesn't seem to be having much impact on our hospitalisation rates.
 
2021-04-20 10:03:15 PM  

Eutychus: Bennie Crabtree: We don't need another variant like the undetectable one from France

I live right where that was first detected so I'm getting a kick...

I know two people who I think it's likely had this, but it hasn't made headlines since first appearing and doesn't seem to be having much impact on our hospitalisation rates.


I guess it's 50-50: Good, it isn't a problem....or...By definition, it can't be in our stats?
 
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