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(Reuters)   So how's that revised two children per couple quota working out China?   (reuters.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Population, Thomson Reuters, Demography, number of births, Childbirth, Abortion, Reuters, number of babies  
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5502 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 19 Apr 2021 at 8:20 AM (3 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-04-19 7:06:03 AM  
Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?
 
2021-04-19 8:04:25 AM  
Urbanized humans have fewer babies. This was going to happen anyway as Chinese started inevitably moving from rural to city -although the government there also sought to control that phenomenon as well. They have laws against country folks moving to the city, although how effective they are is unclear. Mostly it's a way to create illegal underpaid labor just like we do in the USA.

Overall though, I read this as (rare these days) good news for China and good news for the world.
 
2021-04-19 8:19:04 AM  
The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...
 
2021-04-19 8:23:08 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


We spend a shiatload on healthcare for the elderly.  Particularly in the last year of their life.

Not sure if that's the same in other countries, though.
 
2021-04-19 8:23:38 AM  

arrogantbastich: Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?


This!

× a million
 
2021-04-19 8:24:29 AM  
As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.
 
2021-04-19 8:26:29 AM  

arrogantbastich: Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?


There's always the dying rooms. The only difference now is that are equal opportunity dying rooms.
Have a pleasant day Farkers!
 
2021-04-19 8:26:56 AM  
Maybe "f*ck like a panda" wasn't the best slogan to go with.
 
2021-04-19 8:31:16 AM  
The Uyghurs birth rate won't be climbing with all those forced hysterectomies.
 
2021-04-19 8:37:55 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


It's also amusing that what's stopping us isn't an actual lack of resources. It's just a shortage of some imaginary thing we made up to give objects value.
 
2021-04-19 8:38:34 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


The problem is global warming. Used to be a time when we could just put the elderly on an ice floe in the spring and watch them float off into the sunset, undoubtedly bound for some paradise just over the horizon. Now? Good luck finding enough ice such that it doesn't melt before they're out of calling distance from the shore.
 
2021-04-19 8:39:56 AM  
I knew a girl who got into immigration trouble a few years back, because she was an extra child and did not have proper documentation from the Chinese government.

Her parents bribed some lical officials so she was able to go to school and she had some documents like a passport, so she was able to get a greencard.

Then immigration, during the early Trump era, started claiming that simce she did not have all the proper Chinese documents they had no idea if she was a proper Chinese immigrant and say, not a line jumper from Sweden or something, so they tried to deport her.

She ended up marrying her boyfriend to stay in the country, and while they did love each other and had dated for years and would have probably gotten married anyways, it was terribly unfair to put them both in that situation.
 
2021-04-19 8:40:29 AM  
Turns out that people really like farking.
 
2021-04-19 8:42:26 AM  

Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.


Good to note. If population trends continue as they are, earth population will level off at about 10b.
If they continue to accelerate as they are currently accelerating, it will be less.
 
2021-04-19 8:43:57 AM  
Is it me or do those "University students" looks surprisingly old to be learning how to care for children?
 
2021-04-19 8:45:38 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


The children are expected to support their parents (and grandparents).  This is a longstanding cultural expectation.
 
2021-04-19 8:47:18 AM  

yohohogreengiant: Urbanized humans have fewer babies.


Not to mention that things such as having a television in the bedroom drastically reduces intimacy between couples. So less copulation means fewer chances for pregnancy.

Or to put it another way, poor people don't have a whole lot of money for leisure activities, but sex is always free, and an entertaining way to pass the time.
 
2021-04-19 8:50:55 AM  

jso2897: Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.

Good to note. If population trends

continue as they are, earth population will level off at about 10b.
If they continue to accelerate as they are currently accelerating, it will be less.


Say what?
 
2021-04-19 8:54:58 AM  
FTA: China could see its number of births slide below 10 million annually in the next five years if the government does not quickly abolish its policy of limiting families to two children, an expert was quoted in domestic media as saying.

Good. And was this expert Putin? Dick Cheney?

China narrowly missed being an 80's era Ethiopia. The one couple, one child policy was implemented to avoid famine and as an alternative to invading Vietnam for it's land.

Automation will reduce jobs in China just as it will in the rest of the world. Many people, who would otherwise be unemployed, can be trained to assist families with the elderly. The government can open daytime Senior centers and staff them. Technology will likely become a part of caring for the elderly in the future. Something like a home Automat that keeps a week's worth of meals fresh and dispenses them at the proper time would be a godsend to many families.

There are many alternatives (and more being developed) to continuing the pyramid scheme of always birthing a larger generation than the previous one on an Earth that is NOT getting larger. The idea that China should wring its' hands over a falling birth rate is insane.
 
2021-04-19 8:59:16 AM  

Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.


*fewer
 
2021-04-19 9:01:17 AM  
As long as they're not throwing the girls out with the trash.
 
2021-04-19 9:03:51 AM  
The general problem is this.

There are two ways out of inequity... growth + opportunity, or violent conflict.  And since economies are providing goods & services to people, economic growth is naturally constrained by both resources & population growth.  Population growth in turn is determined by your culture (how many kids is normal?  what's your take on immigration?), which is influenced by your laws.

So... back to China... they are starting to get to the point where their economy will slow down.  Yet inequity is rampant.  And they've locked themselves out of growing out of it... their aging population is trained not to like kids or anyone who isn't ethnic Chinese.  Plus they lack the resources to support the number of people they have as it is.  So internal strife between the haves and the have-nots is likely.  Their best bet is probably to pick a war with someone in order to seize resources while reducing their population.

And if that's their objective... seize resources by war... SE Asia is an attractive target.  Followed by taking chunks of India, maybe, and then deporting the existing population.
 
2021-04-19 9:04:23 AM  

camarugala: arrogantbastich: Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?

There's always the dying rooms. The only difference now is that are equal opportunity dying rooms.
Have a pleasant day Farkers!


The elderly vote in big numbers.  They get all sorts of perks, and they are the wealthiest segment of the US population.
Even the GOP panders to them, although they are eroding the same benefits away for younger workers for when they get old.
 
2021-04-19 9:11:20 AM  
China's births may fall below 10 million annually in next five years

So they'll have 90 million a year instead of 100 million? Oh noes, how horrible.

/I have no idea what their normal annual childbirth is
//I also don't care
///we don't need more people
 
2021-04-19 9:11:59 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


If economic plans require an ever growing population then something has to be wrong with the underlining concepts. And I have always shook my head at the scare tactics of negative birth rates, where did this even originate?
 
2021-04-19 9:16:49 AM  
The one child policy, combined with a traditional cultural favoritism for boys, warped the number of girls being born and allowed to live, depressed it greatly and distorted the balance of men to women.  Suddenly, there's not enough of them to go around.
 
2021-04-19 9:17:00 AM  
Quotas are gone.  Everyone is going to be scrambling for more humans in a couple of decades as the population stops growing.  By 2070, America will be begging refugees to come here.
 
2021-04-19 9:18:12 AM  
There was a story on BBC world service the other day discussing this topic. Turns out the Chinese are concerned that the one child policy was too effective, in that it not only limited population, but after this long, it has changed the very concept of what a family is. The very notion of the family structure in Chinese society has been fundamentally stamped with 2 parents + 1 child. Turns out with threats and penalties and coercion, you can make people want to have fewer children. But after you've done that for so long, it is waaay harder to convince them to have more. Especially when you factor in all of the other factors that affect family size as well (increased urbanization, wealth, female education, access to health care, etc).
 
2021-04-19 9:18:55 AM  

Any Pie Left: The one child policy, combined with a traditional cultural favoritism for boys, warped the number of girls being born and allowed to live, depressed it greatly and distorted the balance of men to women.  Suddenly, there's not enough of them to go around.


And they know they've screwed up.  Good luck reversing that trend in the cities!
 
2021-04-19 9:18:55 AM  

The Madd Mann: Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...

It's also amusing that what's stopping us isn't an actual lack of resources. It's just a shortage of some imaginary thing we made up to give objects value.


Not even a shortage, there's plenty of money already floating around. It's just that it keeps aggregating at the top.

But soon, the billionaires will decide that have enough, and then it will trickle down to everyone else. Any minute now.
 
2021-04-19 9:21:31 AM  

Big 900: Turns out the Chinese are concerned that the one child policy was too effective


You are correct.  They also didn't factor in the birth rate reduction that industrialization and family planning brings all by itself.  Industrialization brings a two child policy with it more or less implicitly, and China was piling on to that.  The demographics of the world are changing rapidly.
 
2021-04-19 9:23:06 AM  

Natalie Portmanteau: It's just that it keeps aggregating at the top.


We have known for centuries that money does that.  Which is why we also have wealth redistribution, the easy way, or the hard way.
 
2021-04-19 9:35:07 AM  

Northern: camarugala: arrogantbastich: Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?

There's always the dying rooms. The only difference now is that are equal opportunity dying rooms.
Have a pleasant day Farkers!

The elderly vote in big numbers.  They get all sorts of perks, and they are the wealthiest segment of the US population.
Even the GOP panders to them, although they are eroding the same benefits away for younger workers for when they get old.


That's basically how all the young Brits I know feel about Brexit. The old folks screwed them over to have it their way for the next 20 years before they die off.
 
2021-04-19 9:36:35 AM  

Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...


Time to enact Ättestupa?
 
2021-04-19 9:42:10 AM  

Big 900: There was a story on BBC world service the other day discussing this topic. Turns out the Chinese are concerned that the one child policy was too effective, in that it not only limited population, but after this long, it has changed the very concept of what a family is. The very notion of the family structure in Chinese society has been fundamentally stamped with 2 parents + 1 child. Turns out with threats and penalties and coercion, you can make people want to have fewer children. But after you've done that for so long, it is waaay harder to convince them to have more. Especially when you factor in all of the other factors that affect family size as well (increased urbanization, wealth, female education, access to health care, etc).


Interesting to think on this but all I know is a lot of the Chinese people I work with immediately had a second child when that policy was rescinded.  Some even had much older children already.
 
2021-04-19 9:45:35 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: Natalie Portmanteau: It's just that it keeps aggregating at the top.

We have known for centuries that money does that.  Which is why we also have wealth redistribution, the easy way, or the hard way.


Yeah, but for somehow they convinced an entire generation that if they waited long enough, and voted republican enough, they'd get rich.

Then, when that time came, and the people weren't rich, they said...."uh.... it's the socialist gay immigrants fault!" and we got the tea party, and eventually trump.
 
2021-04-19 9:46:16 AM  

ingo: Barfmaker: The country's falling birth rate and its rapidly greying society is expected to test its ability to pay and care for its elderly.

Every article on negative birth rates repeats this scare but since when have modern societies ever spent much on their elderly?

An actual threat to the wealthy would be the draining the overstocked pool of desperate workers. This means employees will end up having more power, and the wealthy never like the sound of that.

I mean I could be wrong, maybe they just suddenly care about the elderly...

The children are expected to support their parents (and grandparents).  This is a longstanding cultural expectation.


Keeping the cultural expectation aside, that's how pension funds always worked, the new joiners paid for the people retiring. As populations grow, that's great, but when you have a decline, you have fewer young joiners paying for a larger, older population that is also now living longer.
 
2021-04-19 9:46:32 AM  

Northern: camarugala: arrogantbastich: Wtf is your problem subby? Mankind is a walking plague onto itself and you think the answer is more of us?

There's always the dying rooms. The only difference now is that are equal opportunity dying rooms.
Have a pleasant day Farkers!

The elderly vote in big numbers.  They get all sorts of perks, and they are the wealthiest segment of the US population.
Even the GOP panders to them, although they are eroding the same benefits away for younger workers for when they get old.


Okay? I Fail to see how that relates to my comment without some serious mental gymnastics but I do agree with your overall sentiment.
 
2021-04-19 9:47:21 AM  

huntercr: Is it me or do those "University students" looks surprisingly old to be learning how to care for children?


Look, I know it's racist to say that a certain race all look the same...
But did you take a look at those babies?!!
 
2021-04-19 9:47:46 AM  
They can raise the limit all they want. It won't matter what with the shrinking penises and falling sperm counts due to pollution from everyday chemicals. I imagine the shrinking penises will be a problem in Asia sooner than the rest of the world.
 
2021-04-19 9:49:57 AM  

zimbomba67: jso2897: Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.

Good to note. If population trends continue as they are, earth population will level off at about 10b.
If they continue to accelerate as they are currently accelerating, it will be less.

Say what?


I don't believe that I can predict the ACTUAL future - why, do you think you can?
All I said was "if...then" and it's true. Sorry I can't give you certainty.
 
2021-04-19 9:57:53 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: Natalie Portmanteau: It's just that it keeps aggregating at the top.

We have known for centuries that money does that.  Which is why we also have wealth redistribution, the easy way, or the hard way.


If only they had a government based on socialist principles.
 
2021-04-19 10:02:01 AM  

SomeAmerican: The general problem is this.

There are two ways out of inequity... growth + opportunity, or violent conflict.  And since economies are providing goods & services to people, economic growth is naturally constrained by both resources & population growth.  Population growth in turn is determined by your culture (how many kids is normal?  what's your take on immigration?), which is influenced by your laws.

So... back to China... they are starting to get to the point where their economy will slow down.  Yet inequity is rampant.  And they've locked themselves out of growing out of it... their aging population is trained not to like kids or anyone who isn't ethnic Chinese.  Plus they lack the resources to support the number of people they have as it is.  So internal strife between the haves and the have-nots is likely.  Their best bet is probably to pick a war with someone in order to seize resources while reducing their population.

And if that's their objective... seize resources by war... SE Asia is an attractive target.  Followed by taking chunks of India, maybe, and then deporting the existing population.


Jerry Pournelle had a good essay on this decades ago. None of the Four Horsemen reduce population over the long term, reproduction always increases to replace losses.

The only thing that inhibits a societies population growth is societal wealth.
 
2021-04-19 10:04:04 AM  

Herr Morgenstern: China's births may fall below 10 million annually in next five years

So they'll have 90 million a year instead of 100 million? Oh noes, how horrible.

/I have no idea what their normal annual childbirth is


Now read that again
 
2021-04-19 10:05:18 AM  

Mad_Radhu: Marcus Aurelius: Natalie Portmanteau: It's just that it keeps aggregating at the top.

We have known for centuries that money does that.  Which is why we also have wealth redistribution, the easy way, or the hard way.

If only they had a government based on socialist principles.


Implementing a social security retirement system similar to ours would be helpful to the general population. However, that would require wealthier entities to pay taxes. There would be huge push back on that idea.
 
2021-04-19 10:08:55 AM  
But China plans hundreds, nay thousands of years in advance- something us bumbling westerners could never comprehend
 
2021-04-19 10:21:04 AM  

Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.



it's a little scarier than that, too.  There was some article here the other day talking about how much male fertility has fallen in the last 60 years.  we can't fark our way out of this one
 
2021-04-19 10:24:02 AM  

jso2897: zimbomba67: jso2897: Rapmaster2000: As women become more educated, they have less children.  The fertility rate is falling on every nation on Earth.  Sorry, but the Population Bomb was a dud.

Good to note. If population trends continue as they are, earth population will level off at about 10b.
If they continue to accelerate as they are currently accelerating, it will be less.

Say what?

I don't believe that I can predict the ACTUAL future - why, do you think you can?
All I said was "if...then" and it's true. Sorry I can't give you certainty.


I believe the problem is the concept of an accelerating decline isn't clear to them, the language around second derivatives isn't intuitive to a lot of people.  Decreasing at an increasing rate, that's clear as mud to some folks.
 
2021-04-19 10:29:41 AM  
what makes this interesting is that modern techno-state economics do poorly in the face of declining population.  Absent sufficient demand growth productivity gains (which are inevitable in the modern techno-state) get expressed as job loss.  Central Banks have to keep interest near zero to try to fight unemployment, which can't be avoided due to lack of sufficient secular demand growth.  Welcome to our modern world.
 
2021-04-19 10:50:31 AM  
The problem with a shrinking birthrate is that China state pensions can be pretty damn generous, not just in terms of salary paid out but other perks such as state-funded vacations for you and members of your peer group a few times a year with minimal cost to you. Also, the retirement age of Chinese workers is astoundingly low in comparison with the West. The collapse of union pensions in the US is nothing compared to the shiatshow that is the Chinese pension system.

While Westerners fret about catastrophe in East Asia because of Taiwan and such, the real thing that will bring about Chinese downfall is its housing bubble (and massive inequity, in general), its population crisis, and its pension crisis which is pretty damn related to the impending demographic collapse.

Long story short, in the next few years, expect to see increases in retirement age in China, coupled with decreases in pension benefits. This has huge ramifications for the stability of China and the implicit social contract the CCP has with its citizens.
 
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