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(MSN)   We don't have a model of "herd immunity" that succeeded without culls, except maybe smallpox. So please stop aiming for some number of vaccinations in order to re-open. Only the number of infections will tell us when we are winning   (msn.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Vaccination, Smallpox, Immune system, Vaccine, Immunology, Angela Weiss, Getty Images People, herd immunity  
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2344 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 10 Apr 2021 at 9:53 PM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2021-04-10 8:11:31 PM  
Rammed dight.
 
2021-04-10 8:16:24 PM  
The end goal is a vague idea of "immunity" for a disease we still don't fully understand, with vaccines that we have no idea how long they'll last, and how effective they'll be against other variants.  If we rush this, we'll screw the pooch even more.  It sucks, but at least we have an idea of there being an "end" of it.
 
2021-04-10 9:55:17 PM  
So Texas shouldn't be packing baseball parks in the name of freedom?

/s
 
2021-04-10 9:56:20 PM  

SpaceyCat: The end goal is a vague idea of "immunity" for a disease we still don't fully understand, with vaccines that we have no idea how long they'll last, and how effective they'll be against other variants.  If we rush this, we'll screw the pooch even more.  It sucks, but at least we have an idea of there being an "end" of it.


If the current vax would only need an annual booster like it does for Vanilla Flu, I'm fine with that.
 
2021-04-10 9:57:23 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: SpaceyCat: The end goal is a vague idea of "immunity" for a disease we still don't fully understand, with vaccines that we have no idea how long they'll last, and how effective they'll be against other variants.  If we rush this, we'll screw the pooch even more.  It sucks, but at least we have an idea of there being an "end" of it.

If the current vax would only need an annual booster like it does for Vanilla Flu, I'm fine with that.


I'm not an epidemiologist but I'm going with yes, we will.
 
2021-04-10 9:58:22 PM  
People have claimed to be so smart from the beginning of this, especially when they've been wrong with every prediction, time and again.
 
2021-04-10 9:58:37 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: SpaceyCat: The end goal is a vague idea of "immunity" for a disease we still don't fully understand, with vaccines that we have no idea how long they'll last, and how effective they'll be against other variants.  If we rush this, we'll screw the pooch even more.  It sucks, but at least we have an idea of there being an "end" of it.

If the current vax would only need an annual booster like it does for Vanilla Flu, I'm fine with that.


Having to pair booster with manufacturer, especially if the boosters have the same storage requirements, will be a bit more painful.

But agreed. If they could time release about a month before the Influenza vaccine is released, super.
 
2021-04-10 10:00:18 PM  
10 days until my second shot.  I've really enjoyed working from home though and I've saved a crapload of money staying out of restaurants. I think my first thing though will be afternoon beers on a restaurant patio.
 
2021-04-10 10:01:19 PM  

Declassify Issue: So Texas shouldn't be packing baseball parks in the name of freedom?

/s


Baseball, apple pie, and coronavirus.
 
2021-04-10 10:02:43 PM  
Considering I live in a state with a mask mandate, and I saw two morons walking around a grocery store without masks, I'd say we're screwed.
 
2021-04-10 10:05:56 PM  
Makes sense. A community full of doorknob lickers is going to need a higher proportion of vaccinated folks to stop community spread.

Basically, I should avoid places where people engage in more risky behavior and are less likely to be vaccinated. (Not that I had any plans to drive out into Trump country to eat inside a Cracker Barrel.)
 
2021-04-10 10:06:09 PM  
People are already acting like it's over.  It's going to be interesting watching infection rates over the next few months, because I know not all of the crowds are even close to being fully vaccinated.
 
2021-04-10 10:06:52 PM  
in 1918, when the first article describing herd immunity was published

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2021-04-10 10:08:20 PM  

NathanAllen: AAAAGGGGHHHH: SpaceyCat: The end goal is a vague idea of "immunity" for a disease we still don't fully understand, with vaccines that we have no idea how long they'll last, and how effective they'll be against other variants.  If we rush this, we'll screw the pooch even more.  It sucks, but at least we have an idea of there being an "end" of it.

If the current vax would only need an annual booster like it does for Vanilla Flu, I'm fine with that.

Having to pair booster with manufacturer, especially if the boosters have the same storage requirements, will be a bit more painful.


Why would that be necessary?
 
2021-04-10 10:09:58 PM  
If the anti maskers and anti vaxers were the only ones who died from their ignorance we would solve both the political and the stupidity problems in short order.
 
2021-04-10 10:11:47 PM  
Ok cool man I will tell my underlings at the health department
I am the person who makes these decisions
 
2021-04-10 10:15:27 PM  

GORDON: People have claimed to be so smart from the beginning of this, especially when they've been wrong with every prediction, time and again.


The most smart of all were our General Woundworts, mocking everyone for cowering in their homes when clearly we would be doing better just carrying on like nothing is happening.
They always use the word cowering.
 
2021-04-10 10:15:52 PM  
"herd immunity" is achieved when a disease causing organism no longer has enough hosts in a given population to multiply in and spread itself.

think of a population of humans like a group of water glasses, all arranged in a rounded "blob" touching like this:
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imagine the virus is dropped into one glass, multiplies itself, and when it hits a high enough population in that glass it overflows, and then can leap into every glass that one touches, multiply itself there, and continue until every glass is full of virus.

ok, now imagine that every glass touching that very first infected glass contains virus killer. the virus cannot multiply in them enough to overflow and jump into their neighbors. the virus is stopped.

that is herd immunity. not EVERY glass needs virus-killer, but enough of them need it that the odds will be that the "neighbors" touching any random glass can basically stop/severely limit the spread.
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we don't yet know the true threshold for COVID herd immunity in humans, but it's looking like 50-80% of ALL people in a population need to be immune to letting the virus replicate. not just "don't suffer dangerous symptoms" but "don't replicate the virus and spread it to neighboring 'water glasses'".

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/ho​w​-much-of-the-population-will-need-to-b​e-vaccinated-until-the-pandemic-is-ove​r/

this seems to be too complex for most of our elected officials to grasp.......

AND to work kids will need to be vaccinated too.
 
2021-04-10 10:16:27 PM  
If beating the virus means antivaxers have to succumb to it in large numbers, there's really nothing I can do about it. I will be triggered, oh will I be triggered. I probably will live into my nineties talking about how their deaths triggered me.
 
2021-04-10 10:18:02 PM  

dopirt: If beating the virus means antivaxers have to succumb to it in large numbers, there's really nothing I can do about it. I will be triggered, oh will I be triggered. I probably will live into my nineties talking about how their deaths triggered me.


Show them the medal I won, Kif, for sending wave after wave of antivaxxers and COVID deniers at the problem
 
2021-04-10 10:18:08 PM  

dopirt: If beating the virus means antivaxers have to succumb to it in large numbers, there's really nothing I can do about it. I will be triggered, oh will I be triggered. I probably will live into my nineties talking about how their deaths triggered me.


I think after the 2nd time they catch Covid-19 they will become pro-vax.
 
2021-04-10 10:19:09 PM  
my 38 YO sister in chicago got her pfizer 1st shot tuesday (i got moderna on monday). and thought she was having bad side effects. yesterday she tested positive for COVID and for strep throat. and she works from home, lives alone, and ALWAYS masks.

FARK COVID, mask up!
 
2021-04-10 10:19:10 PM  

VoiceOfReason499: Makes sense. A community full of doorknob lickers is going to need a higher proportion of vaccinated folks to stop community spread.

Basically, I should avoid places where people engage in more risky behavior and are less likely to be vaccinated. (Not that I had any plans to drive out into Trump country to eat inside a Cracker Barrel.)


"If you didn't know any better, you'd think a 'Cracker Barrel' is a place to store white people...and you'd be right."
 
2021-04-10 10:20:11 PM  
I dunno, I think many of us would be down for a cull of anti-vaxxers...
 
2021-04-10 10:20:12 PM  
The very term "herd immunity" is very dehumanizing, imo. As if the elites see Humanity as nothing but cattle.
 
2021-04-10 10:21:55 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: The very term "herd immunity" is very dehumanizing, imo. As if the elites see Humanity as nothing but cattle.


What is the horrors today? Oh, science has a dispassionate term. The horrors, the horrors! Get my pearls so I can clutch them and wail about "The Elites".
 
2021-04-10 10:22:25 PM  

luna1580: my 38 YO sister in chicago got her pfizer 1st shot tuesday (i got moderna on monday). and thought she was having bad side effects. yesterday she tested positive for COVID and for strep throat. and she works from home, lives alone, and ALWAYS masks.

FARK COVID, mask up!


Doesn't compute
 
2021-04-10 10:25:37 PM  

Declassify Issue: luna1580: my 38 YO sister in chicago got her pfizer 1st shot tuesday (i got moderna on monday). and thought she was having bad side effects. yesterday she tested positive for COVID and for strep throat. and she works from home, lives alone, and ALWAYS masks.

FARK COVID, mask up!

Doesn't compute


remember, the mask isn't protecting YOU, it's protecting others FROM YOU. maybe somebody coughed on her on the el. she works from home, but she still leaves the house on occasion.
 
2021-04-10 10:34:32 PM  
So culling it is then...
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2021-04-10 10:35:03 PM  
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2021-04-10 10:36:15 PM  

GORDON: People have claimed to be so smart from the beginning of this, especially when they've been wrong with every prediction, time and again.


You're right, plague rats have been wrong again and again while scientists were right again and again.
 
2021-04-10 10:38:53 PM  

Fulltimer: If the anti maskers and anti vaxers were the only ones who died from their ignorance we would solve both the political and the stupidity problems in short order.


We should engineer the next covid so that its less contagious but 50 times deadlier then
 
2021-04-10 10:39:52 PM  
You know, Subby, traditionally one links to an article that actually backs up what one says in the headline.

Nothing wrong with TFA, btw; seems like obvious stuff to me.
 
2021-04-10 10:41:13 PM  
No. Hospitalization and mortality rates will tell you, and what we should be basing shiat off of.
 
2021-04-10 10:47:02 PM  

Fano: dopirt: If beating the virus means antivaxers have to succumb to it in large numbers, there's really nothing I can do about it. I will be triggered, oh will I be triggered. I probably will live into my nineties talking about how their deaths triggered me.

Show them the medal I won, Kif, for sending wave after wave of antivaxxers and COVID deniers at the problem


The Stsho may change genders several times along the way.
 
2021-04-10 10:59:45 PM  

LineNoise: No. Hospitalization and mortality rates will tell you, and what we should be basing shiat off of.


Morbidity is better. The 30% of people who got brain damage is the scariest part, and they ain't dead or hosptialized.
 
2021-04-10 11:00:50 PM  

FDR Jones: You know, Subby, traditionally one links to an article that actually backs up what one says in the headline.

Nothing wrong with TFA, btw; seems like obvious stuff to me.


Subby seems to me to have read the article properly.
 
2021-04-10 11:00:57 PM  
From everything I've seen so far, it's essentially impossible to allow in-person dining without Reff exceeding 1. My city was doing very well beating the virus back after the holiday nightmare, then as soon as we opened in-person inside dining back up, cases are going through the roof again. It's rising 50% every week. We're over half of the way back to our worst case rate ever.

And we're already 20% vaccinated. So just to stay on a level keel with dining open we're going to have to reach 45-50%, while doing everything else.
 
2021-04-10 11:03:25 PM  
I just about flipped out when a co-worker said that instead of all these mask mandates and lockdowns, we should have just let the virus spread so we could reach herd immunity quicker and get back to normal.

I said that doing it the way we did still killed 550,000 Americans and his way likely would have killed twice that many, and I'm sorry, but that's not okay.

Bonus:  I work at a hospital.
 
2021-04-10 11:04:45 PM  
Hasn't worked in the past therefore can't be done and tons of people must die? Subby can shove that attitude up his ass.
 
2021-04-10 11:06:20 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: LineNoise: No. Hospitalization and mortality rates will tell you, and what we should be basing shiat off of.

Morbidity is better. The 30% of people who got brain damage is the scariest part, and they ain't dead or hosptialized.


I have a hypothesis that it isn't necessarily the coronavirus that causes brain damage; it's that people with brain damage are more likely to catch the coronavirus.
 
2021-04-10 11:07:48 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: LineNoise: No. Hospitalization and mortality rates will tell you, and what we should be basing shiat off of.

Morbidity is better. The 30% of people who got brain damage is the scariest part, and they ain't dead or hosptialized.


ehhh......i'll give that data a bit more time and further research than what i read before i'll buy in on it.

At least in the few stories i have read, the majority of that was anxiety\depression, which given the last year is pretty farking understandable in a lot of people. Hopefully as we move out of this its more of a consequence of people going through what they did, than actual physiological damage.

"the hey, a lot of people aren't going to be cool with a year of just sitting in their basement playing video games and calling it a life" was called out pretty early in this thing.
 
2021-04-10 11:15:25 PM  

Blahbbs: I just about flipped out when a co-worker said that instead of all these mask mandates and lockdowns, we should have just let the virus spread so we could reach herd immunity quicker and get back to normal.

I said that doing it the way we did still killed 550,000 Americans and his way likely would have killed twice that many, and I'm sorry, but that's not okay.

Bonus:  I work at a hospital.


Wow. Working in a hospital and being that farking dumb. How did your coworker get hired/keep his job?
 
2021-04-10 11:20:11 PM  

luna1580: Declassify Issue: luna1580: my 38 YO sister in chicago got her pfizer 1st shot tuesday (i got moderna on monday). and thought she was having bad side effects. yesterday she tested positive for COVID and for strep throat. and she works from home, lives alone, and ALWAYS masks.

FARK COVID, mask up!

Doesn't compute

remember, the mask isn't protecting YOU, it's protecting others FROM YOU. maybe somebody coughed on her on the el. she works from home, but she still leaves the house on occasion.


And that's not the first strep/COVID combo that I've heard of.  Wonder what the percentage is on that. And did the Strep open her up for the COVID or the other way around?
 
2021-04-10 11:20:51 PM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: The very term "herd immunity" is very dehumanizing, imo. As if the elites see Humanity as nothing but cattle.


Think of Humanity as a herd of elk.

As in, a virus mowed through a herd of elk, killing the diseased and the aged so that the others might thrive, and in unison, we all chanted Darwin's name.
 
2021-04-10 11:39:18 PM  
In the 19th century they had immunity passports for smallpox.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsand​s​oda/2021/04/08/985032748/the-vaccine-p​assport-debate-actually-began-in-1897-​over-a-plague-vaccine

/anti-vaxxers and freedumbs people need to get over theirselves.
 
2021-04-10 11:45:30 PM  

lolmao500: Blahbbs: I just about flipped out when a co-worker said that instead of all these mask mandates and lockdowns, we should have just let the virus spread so we could reach herd immunity quicker and get back to normal.

I said that doing it the way we did still killed 550,000 Americans and his way likely would have killed twice that many, and I'm sorry, but that's not okay.

Bonus:  I work at a hospital.

Wow. Working in a hospital and being that farking dumb. How did your coworker get hired/keep his job?


a lot of stupid motherfarkers work in hospitals
usually dealing with billing, accounting, insurance, admin, that kind of shiat
you don't have to have any common sense or medical knowledge, you just have to understand spreadsheets
 
2021-04-10 11:57:19 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: FDR Jones: You know, Subby, traditionally one links to an article that actually backs up what one says in the headline.

Nothing wrong with TFA, btw; seems like obvious stuff to me.

Subby seems to me to have read the article properly.


Ok great. I'll read it again and look for mentions of smallpox and all the unsuccessful attempts made to reach herd immunity for every other virus in the history of vaccines. I must have missed it the first time.
 
2021-04-11 12:11:54 AM  
How about this. When we have enough vaccine supply so anyone in your town can go down same day (or two) and get one...all restrictions are off.

We cannot try to get to zero risk. It's idiotic.
 
2021-04-11 12:23:45 AM  

ski9600: In the 19th century they had immunity passports for smallpox.


Smallpox vaccine documentation requirements continued at least into the 1960s in some areas for some purposes.
 
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