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(Jalopnik)   At their current rate of growth, Tesla will be able to justify their stock valuation in the year 3621   ( divider line
    More: Scary, Stock market, company's stock, Tesla's current price, stock market, Elon Musk, New Statesman, earnings ratio, trading apps  
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697 clicks; posted to Business » on 17 Jan 2021 at 7:53 PM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook

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2021-01-17 8:19:27 PM  
17 votes:

born_yesterday: Pedophile.

i.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
2021-01-17 5:22:51 PM  
10 votes:
2021-01-17 9:52:38 PM  
9 votes:

keldaria: [Fark user image 375x364]
Hmm, I don't know but something seems off with the valuation. Cant put my finger on it.

I mean I suppose it's possible that they will dominate the next decade or 2 and put other automakers to shame but if that's baked into the price already, then where does the stock have to go from here? They hold a promising future for sure but that's not a train I'm about to jump aboard. That goes for short selling too, way too many people are just throwing money at it trying to get a ride for me to take on that risk.

I've got nothing against Tesla but it doesn't take a short selling critic to question if the stock is overhyped. To anyone going long, I wish you best of luck, especially if you are a late buy in.

Are all those companies revolutionizing the driving experience?  Are they setting presidence ?  Or are they churning out the same trash boxes that aren't worth 500.00 in 10 years
ZAZ [TotalFark]
2021-01-17 6:57:18 PM  
4 votes:
In the year 3621
Elon's car will end its run.
Grow your Dodge, grow your Audi too,
In the bottom of a big glass tube.
Xai [TotalFark]
2021-01-18 12:13:21 PM  
2 votes:
Ah here we go, I was wondering where the annual 'lying about Tesla financials' story was.

Right, if I own a jewellers, I sell $100k in products in a year and have $50k in costs, then spend $49k on stones and equipment to make more pieces, you wouldn't value the business on the $1k in taxable profit I made.

The fact they are keeping their taxable profits low during an expansion is a VERY GOOD THINGas you aren't wasting money by paying out taxes or dividends then immediately loaning money to pay for expansion and wasting interest on loans.

I can't imagine Jalopnik's entire staff could make such an elementary mistake unintentionally.

I mean heck, by the measure they are using you'd have valued Amazon at like $1bn right up until 2017 which would be stupid.

In a growing company you look at revenues, not taxable profits and Tesla's are certainly on the up even if their current valuation is excessive.
2021-01-18 7:29:03 AM  
2 votes:

Rapmaster2000: crackpancake: Elon Musk's CompaniesSpaceX (including Starlink)
Tesla (including SolarCity)
The Boring Company.

Guess how many companies most people own?  There is something here!

SpaceX does not appear anywhere in Tesla's 10K. It is not remotely a part of Tesla.  You are not investing in SpaceX when you buy a share of Tesla.

You are also not investing in Square when you buy a share of Twitter, in case you were also confused on that one.

The battery tech is in Tesla though.

Just the battery tech if they can deliver in the next 3-5 years would put Telsa stock in the right place.

There isn't any company now that has that kind of battery tech and means to produce it at scale. If battery tech linked to renewable power generation happens stockholders will make a bucket of cash...perhaps two buckets.
2021-01-17 7:54:07 PM  
2 votes:
this is just more lies from people wanting to short tesla

*jerking off motion*
2021-01-18 1:38:30 AM  
1 vote:

crackpancake: Are all those companies revolutionizing the driving experience?  Are they setting presidence ?  Or are they churning out the same trash boxes that aren't worth 500.00 in 10 years

The Cybertruck is a meme.  The electric F-150 is an actual functional truck and the fleet sales for the electric F-150 and Transit van alone will make up most of Tesla's total sales numbers.  Both of those are due out next model year.

Tesla cars themselves have build quality issues.  The NHTSA issued a rare public request for Tesla to recall most of their vehicles sold between 2012 and 2018.  This is unusual because the NHTSA doesn't have to do issue those requests for most brands, but Tesla has been actively engaged in minimizing increasingly more public build quality issues and deflecting responsibility for said issues.  This is all "new tech" 101 behavior, but it doesn't really fly in a heavily regulated industry.  If the NHTSA has to actually force a recall, the stock impact will not be negligible, as the weight of regulation and burden of free maintenance is not currently factored in their stock price like it is in others.

GM has a contract with FedEx for their new electric fleet with deliveries this year.  GM already has successful electric vehicles on the market and the manufacturing infrastructure to support it, and has more consumer models in the pipeline.

Toyota can't keep the RAV4 Prime in stock.

Basically, there's plenty of reasons why Tesla is wildly overvalued and unsustainable, and competitors are catching up quickly and have far more robust dealership networks, maintenance programs, supplier pipelines, quality assurance, etc.  If Tesla wants to justify anything, it needs to build more cars than it currently does, build them better, and maintain them better.  If they don't, they'll just be another luxury brand with overpriced maintenance.  That doesn't drive stock value even if C-suite people want to drive them.
2021-01-17 10:13:04 PM  
1 vote:
I have done the calculations here before.

I will just summarize. Based on the PE I get today for their stock, Tesla will have to DOUBLE their EARNINGS year on year for about the next 8 years.

So if they can MAINTAIN their profit margin on sales, they will need to do that doubling of sales. That will require, well, 3 gigafactories last year, 6 this year, 12 next year, etc. Keep in mind that last year they had 30% year on year growth, so they are already pitifully behind in sales growth, production, etc. I also calculated that they would need to sell something like 250 million cars PER YEAR to make their earnings 8 years from now.

And ALL OF THAT is assuming that the stock price does not change in 8 years. If the price goes up, well, that just makes the whole proposition MORE ludicrous, or plaid, or whatever.

I will also add that a favorite trick of Enron to throw analysts off of their trail was to keep claiming that they were an x company, not a y company. Enron was a gas company, then an energy company, then a trading company, then an information company, etc. etc. Tesla is doing the same thing. It is trying to be everyone's floor wax and dessert topping.

None of this surprises me. Tesla investors do not read prospectuses or the balance sheet anymore. They are buying lottery tickets. Pretty well everyone knows it. As far as I am concerned, they have all been warned. They won't listen.

Mostly, I want to see what happens. People will be amazed at how much of the whole thing is just vapor. Very little intellectual property. No sales network. Very little in assets. It will just be a big ball of lawsuits and foreclosures and some auctions.

If that makes you sad, then don't believe me. Go have some fun.
2021-01-17 9:59:27 PM  
1 vote:
Elon Musk's CompaniesSpaceX (including Starlink)
Tesla (including SolarCity)
The Boring Company.

Guess how many companies most people own?  There is something here!
2021-01-17 7:53:35 PM  
1 vote:
Future PE is what matters.  Their Shanghai gigafactory is going to supply large swaths of Asia.
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