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(BBC)   And the winning numbers in South Africa's national lottery are 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Well, why not?   (bbc.co.uk) divider line
    More: Cool, Lottery, odds of the draw, South Africa's PowerBall lottery, Mega Millions, number of different combinations, Powerball, Permutation, Combinadic  
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1839 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Dec 2020 at 12:59 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-12-02 12:37:46 PM  
Oh yeah. That's totally normal.
 
2020-12-02 12:43:32 PM  
That combination of numbers has the same chance of turning up as any other.
 
2020-12-02 12:45:27 PM  
Yep, true randomicity allows for this sequence to occur. Not saying that someone wasn't behind it, but I've seen some weird things in my work on statistics.
 
2020-12-02 12:57:43 PM  
....which reminds me, I need to change the combination to my luggage.
 
2020-12-02 1:02:14 PM  
the 20 people winning was the only fishy part
 
2020-12-02 1:02:30 PM  

Stephen_Falken: Yep, true randomicity allows for this sequence to occur. Not saying that someone wasn't behind it, but I've seen some weird things in my work on statistics.


Correct. In fact, this Lotto is probably more trustworthy. I say this because my State actually runs the numbers multiples times and then draws the official numbers. The above numbers probably came from one clean run.
I think.
Complete conjecture in my part
 
2020-12-02 1:02:32 PM  
Remind me to change the combination on my luggage
 
2020-12-02 1:03:06 PM  

King Something: ....which reminds me, I need to change the combination to my luggage.


Dooh, missed it by that much
 
2020-12-02 1:03:33 PM  
I had a friend who used to always say that I was buying into "the tax on the poor" when I'd get lottery tix.

Well, I'm poor and pay that tax every week because hey, maybe this week's my week?
 
2020-12-02 1:03:42 PM  
I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.
 
2020-12-02 1:05:49 PM  
If you were going to rig a lottery, you wouldn't do it with a combination that draws attention unless you were trying to make a point.
 
2020-12-02 1:05:49 PM  
....I love you.
All together now,
all together now...
 
2020-12-02 1:06:36 PM  

waxbeans: I say this because my State actually runs the numbers multiples times and then draws the official numbers.


So, they run multiple draws and can rig it by choosing which draw is declared the winner? That's amazingly unethical.
 
2020-12-02 1:07:29 PM  

waxbeans: I say this because my State actually runs the numbers multiples times and then draws the official numbers.


I caught management at my job rigging a vacation bid in this manner. It wasn't pretty.
 
2020-12-02 1:07:57 PM  

mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.


The only problem with that and this African lottery is that it is unoriginal and you get an unusual amount of winners when it hits.
 
2020-12-02 1:08:39 PM  

mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.


But you split the eventual jackpot with every other smartass doing the same thing.
 
2020-12-02 1:08:47 PM  

Dead for Tax Reasons: the 20 people winning was the only fishy part


Why?

I'm sure plenty of people pick sequences.
 
2020-12-02 1:09:26 PM  
"Hai guise! What's going on in this thread?"

lh6.googleusercontent.comView Full Size
 
2020-12-02 1:10:48 PM  
The winner lives at 10 Main Street.
 
2020-12-02 1:11:15 PM  
sciencealert.comView Full Size
 
2020-12-02 1:11:19 PM  
Wow, that's my universal password
 
2020-12-02 1:11:21 PM  

Salmon: I had a friend who used to always say that I was buying into "the tax on the poor" when I'd get lottery tix.

Well, I'm poor and pay that tax every week because hey, maybe this week's my week?


It's mathematically impossible to win if you don't play.

Also, "You miss every shot you don't take" - Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott.
 
2020-12-02 1:11:40 PM  

mrmopar5287: waxbeans: I say this because my State actually runs the numbers multiples times and then draws the official numbers.

So, they run multiple draws and can rig it by choosing which draw is declared the winner? That's amazingly unethical.


I'd assume it's more "we first do 5 test runs in a row, return the balls after each draw, and #6 will be the real one" to ensure maximum randomness & reduce the odds that the entire setup has been tampered with.
 
2020-12-02 1:12:37 PM  
My wife, the actuary, just told me that's no less possible than any other sequence of numbers.
 
2020-12-02 1:13:42 PM  

F-14Tomcat: That combination of numbers has the same chance of turning up as any other.


Thank you.  We're done in two here.

But the incident does highlight how little the average person understands about basic math and science.

"The election/lottery was rigged because the numbers don't match my desires/expectations."

"I feel something is wrong.  Therefore something is wrong."

"I believe in evidence until it challenges my beliefs."
 
2020-12-02 1:14:41 PM  

King Something: ....which reminds me, I need to change the combination to my luggage.


I got the lights.
 
2020-12-02 1:14:54 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-12-02 1:15:16 PM  

Salmon: I had a friend who used to always say that I was buying into "the tax on the poor" when I'd get lottery tix.

Well, I'm poor and pay that tax every week because hey, maybe this week's my week?


That smells fishy.
 
2020-12-02 1:15:28 PM  
I finally won?!
cdn.hipwallpaper.comView Full Size
 
2020-12-02 1:15:42 PM  

mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.


I'm too lazy and stupid to do the math, but now I want to know the odds of any sequence of 6 numbers (n, n+1, n+2... n+6) showing up (with both independent and dependent selections).
 
2020-12-02 1:20:19 PM  

Dead for Tax Reasons: the 20 people winning was the only fishy part


Actually, no, apparently this combo is frequently played.  I bet at least 20 people played 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 as well.
 
2020-12-02 1:25:57 PM  
Schlemiel!
Schlimazel!
Hasenpfeffer incorporated!
 
2020-12-02 1:26:25 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

Excuse me, but I'm the real "South African Lottery" winner
 
2020-12-02 1:34:32 PM  

Excelsior: mrmopar5287: waxbeans: I say this because my State actually runs the numbers multiples times and then draws the official numbers.

So, they run multiple draws and can rig it by choosing which draw is declared the winner? That's amazingly unethical.

I'd assume it's more "we first do 5 test runs in a row, return the balls after each draw, and #6 will be the real one" to ensure maximum randomness & reduce the odds that the entire setup has been tampered with.


You cannot determine any randomness with 5 test runs. It isn't enough data.

The only way to ensure the setup hasn't been tampered with is to have it thoroughly audited and verified by whatever professional firm you want to contract that out to, and then leave it under lock & key the entire time it's not being used.
 
2020-12-02 1:36:32 PM  

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.

I'm too lazy and stupid to do the math, but now I want to know the odds of any sequence of 6 numbers (n, n+1, n+2... n+6) showing up (with both independent and dependent selections).


How many numbers are in each draw?

Powerball uses 5/69 and 1/26 for the last 5 years. Odds are 1 in 292,201,338.
 
2020-12-02 1:38:22 PM  

kpaxoid: "I feel something is wrong. Therefore something is wrong."


The human brain evolved to recognize patterns in animal migration on the plains of Africa. That, and the pattern recognition goes to that predator/prey relationship, because having the base level of your brain recognize that SOMETHING is wrong could save your life. It's an instinct.
 
2020-12-02 1:39:38 PM  

King Something: ....which reminds me, I need to change the combination to my luggage.


I submitted this with this headline
 
2020-12-02 1:41:04 PM  
Funny. I have the same combination on my luggage.
 
2020-12-02 1:41:41 PM  
I would think if you were going to commit massive lottery fraud, you wouldn't make it so obvious.
 
2020-12-02 1:45:03 PM  

MythDragon: I would think if you were going to commit massive lottery fraud, you wouldn't make it so obvious.


You mean have a good plan to claim the winnings? And don't wait until the last minute?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot_Lot​t​o_fraud_scandal
 
2020-12-02 1:48:35 PM  

mrmopar5287: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.

I'm too lazy and stupid to do the math, but now I want to know the odds of any sequence of 6 numbers (n, n+1, n+2... n+6) showing up (with both independent and dependent selections).

How many numbers are in each draw?

Powerball uses 5/69 and 1/26 for the last 5 years. Odds are 1 in 292,201,338.


I presume that you could write the equation for X number of balls, yeah?
 
2020-12-02 1:49:42 PM  

mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.


I funnyed this because you try to explain to people
 
2020-12-02 1:53:15 PM  

Geotpf: Dead for Tax Reasons: the 20 people winning was the only fishy part

Actually, no, apparently this combo is frequently played.  I bet at least 20 people played 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 as well.


that's pretty dumb - it's a 6 number draw
 
2020-12-02 1:53:45 PM  

mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.


I always have the computer generate the numbers for me... because I don't play all that often and wouldn't want to have "my numbers" come up on some week I didn't play and then be kicking myself over it
 
2020-12-02 1:59:10 PM  

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: mrmopar5287: Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: mrmopar5287: I always play 1-2-3-4-5-6 and try to explain to people that it's the same odds as any other winning combination.

I'm too lazy and stupid to do the math, but now I want to know the odds of any sequence of 6 numbers (n, n+1, n+2... n+6) showing up (with both independent and dependent selections).

How many numbers are in each draw?

Powerball uses 5/69 and 1/26 for the last 5 years. Odds are 1 in 292,201,338.

I presume that you could write the equation for X number of balls, yeah?


For lotteries that use one pool of balls to draw all numbers (let's say 25 balls, 5 drawn, all out of the same pool), it is 25 x 24 x 23 x 22 x 21.

If each numeral drawn has it's own pool of balls, it is 25 x 25 x 25 x 25 x 25

Pick 3 in my state? 10 x 10 x 10. Pick 4 is 10 x 10 x 10 x 10.

So on and so forth for any lottery you want to do the math.
 
2020-12-02 2:07:42 PM  

Salmon: I had a friend who used to always say that I was buying into "the tax on the poor" when I'd get lottery tix.

Well, I'm poor and pay that tax every week because hey, maybe this week's my week?


BUT But but... it's for edictmacation! Can't have schools without a lottery.

/Chances are, the kid's gonna be a methhead anyways...
 
2020-12-02 2:08:55 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-12-02 2:10:04 PM  

kpaxoid: "The election/lottery was rigged because the numbers don't match my desires/expectations."


Believe me, I hear the complaints.

I'm the union steward at my job. As part of our process for bidding shifts and vacation, people who have the same Entry-On-Duty date (the date they are hired with the agency) have to have a tie-breaker. We used to do it with a random number generator, but when things don't turn out the way they want they start blaming the computer for some voodoo going on.

The way I've solved it is by purchasing dice. A set of three 10-sided dice works for the three people with the same EOD date. I have them all together at once and they all roll their die together. If all three of them get different numbers, the lowest number goes first and then second and third place the same. If there are any ties, they all roll again until all three of them have different numbers.

By putting fate into their hands, it gives them the illusion of control. It doesn't matter if they actually have no control. All that matters is that they personally feel the outcome is better because they did it themselves, right in front of everyone involved.

The RNG in the computer done behind closed doors doesn't satisfy them, and rightfully so since I've uncovered abuse in the past.
 
2020-12-02 2:11:04 PM  

Mikeyworld: Salmon: I had a friend who used to always say that I was buying into "the tax on the poor" when I'd get lottery tix.

Well, I'm poor and pay that tax every week because hey, maybe this week's my week?

BUT But but... it's for edictmacation! Can't have schools without a lottery.

/Chances are, the kid's gonna be a methhead anyways...


I'll make sure my guy can afford coke, not meth.
 
2020-12-02 2:12:19 PM  
mrmopar5287
For lotteries that use one pool of balls to draw all numbers (let's say 25 balls, 5 drawn, all out of the same pool), it is 25 x 24 x 23 x 22 x 21.


..divided by 5!=120 if the order of the drawing doesn't matter.
 
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