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(Bloomberg)   Old 'n busted: Peak oil is coming. New energetic carbonated hotness: Peak oil is here now. Wait, what?   (bloomberg.com) divider line
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662 clicks; posted to Business » on 01 Dec 2020 at 11:34 AM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-12-01 10:58:46 AM  
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it's been here for a while
 
2020-12-01 11:06:53 AM  
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2020-12-01 11:40:13 AM  
It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.
 
2020-12-01 11:46:20 AM  
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2020-12-01 11:51:05 AM  

thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.


Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.
 
2020-12-01 11:56:00 AM  

thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.


It was never could not.  It was always no longer economically feasible.  A drop in demand for oil would lower the price of economic feasablilty.
 
2020-12-01 12:06:20 PM  
It's nice not being called crazy for pointing this out anymore. Peak oil didn't sneak up on me, yo!
 
2020-12-01 12:22:12 PM  
Dafuq is this shia--   Oh, Bloomberg.  *chuckle*
 
2020-12-01 12:44:55 PM  

Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.


This post is going to become increasingly funny over the next decade.
 
2020-12-01 12:52:41 PM  
Peak oil was predicted to occur during the 70's.
 
2020-12-01 1:04:20 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

This post is going to become increasingly funny over the next decade.


There is no proof of significant organic demand for mass market electric vehicles.  Tesla level, luxury second vehicles from $50k to $100k and up, sure, there's a significant, albeit still niche, demand.  (I suspect the vast majority of Tesla owners also own a gas powered vehicle, probably a hybrid SUV or minivan, for road trips.)  But below that?  Nope.  See how cheap used low mileage Nissan Leafs (which means the $7,500 Federal tax break has already been used) are for an example of the lack of demand.
 
2020-12-01 1:32:13 PM  

12349876: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

It was never could not.  It was always no longer economically feasible.  A drop in demand for oil would lower the price of economic feasablilty.


So would a more efficient extraction process, but I didn't see anyone going 'Peak Natural Gas' when extraction dipped during the 2017 glut.

/Face it, this is a writer trying to fit a market fluctuation into a terminal supply theory
 
2020-12-01 1:54:31 PM  

Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.


"Peak Oil" assumed that the laws of supply and demand simply didn't apply to oil, because reasons.  And they pointed to the guys predictions of "peak oil in the US" being right because he simply plotted the cost of US oil production vs. the cost of world oil production and figured they would cross in the 1970s, meaning that less and less oil would be drilled in the US.

And somehow, every electric car made is being sold (less the "compliance car" truck companies make to keep selling muscle cars alongside their trucks).  Odd that Ford canceled their "compliance car" and decided to badge their new electric car as a "mustang" if nobody wants an electric car.
/the ICE is great at providing power, distance, and efficiency
//just not power and efficiency in the same engine
///and the smartphone/mobile electronics have pushed battery R&D into hyperdrive for decades
 
2020-12-01 2:00:14 PM  

yet_another_wumpus: Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

"Peak Oil" assumed that the laws of supply and demand simply didn't apply to oil, because reasons.  And they pointed to the guys predictions of "peak oil in the US" being right because he simply plotted the cost of US oil production vs. the cost of world oil production and figured they would cross in the 1970s, meaning that less and less oil would be drilled in the US.

And somehow, every electric car made is being sold (less the "compliance car" truck companies make to keep selling muscle cars alongside their trucks).  Odd that Ford canceled their "compliance car" and decided to badge their new electric car as a "mustang" if nobody wants an electric car.
/the ICE is great at providing power, distance, and efficiency
//just not power and efficiency in the same engine
///and the smartphone/mobile electronics have pushed battery R&D into hyperdrive for decades


Ford with the electric Mustang (and GM with the electric Hummer) are both going up market, competing with Tesla, at the $50-100k+ level, where there is a (small) market.

There's no all electric F-150 or equivalent.  There's no all electric Camry or equivalent.  There's no all electric Civic or equivalent.  The all electric market is only for high priced, high featured, high content, second vehicles.
 
2020-12-01 2:02:09 PM  
Oh, and peak oil was basically "it's going to cost a lot more to get oil out of the ground because we are running out of cheap stuff so prices will go up".  None of that is happening.
 
2020-12-01 2:13:23 PM  

wiseolddude: Peak oil was predicted to occur during the 70's.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-12-01 2:18:19 PM  

Autoerotic Defenestration: wiseolddude: Peak oil was predicted to occur during the 70's.

[Fark user image 586x426]


No.  It wasn't and it wasn't.
 
2020-12-01 2:52:05 PM  

Geotpf: For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.


3.3 percent of global new car sales in October have been pure battery EVs. In addition to that, many more people would like to own an electric car but can't afford one. In markets like China and Europe they do offer smaller, affordable electric cars (like the Renault Zoe for instance) and new battery electric car sales have hit 6.5 percent in Europe and 5.4 percent in China. Markets with a lot of spending power like Germany are at 8.4 percent pure EVs for new sales.

The US is just playing catch-up, which is a bit ironic given that it was Tesla that proved the viability of this type of car.

Geotpf: There's no all electric F-150 or equivalent.


They're making one, it will likely be a 2022 model.

Geotpf: There's no all electric Camry or equivalent.  There's no all electric Civic or equivalent.


The Japanese have their heads stuck up their asses. Mazda too. I guess this transition to electric will produce different winners and losers.

Geotpf:See how cheap used low mileage Nissan Leafs (which means the $7,500 Federal tax break has already been used) are for an example of the lack of demand.

Even the new Leaf is meh, the older models kinda suck to be honest, which is why sales fell off a cliff the second the Tesla Model 3 arrived. Nissan seems to be focusing all their efforts on the new Ariya, which has a better chance of competing in the US market.
 
2020-12-01 3:23:13 PM  

FLMountainMan: Autoerotic Defenestration: wiseolddude: Peak oil was predicted to occur during the 70's.

[Fark user image 586x426]

No.  It wasn't and it wasn't.


Predictions of when we would run out of oil have been around for a century, but the idea that peak production was rapidly approaching and that it would be followed by ruinous decline gained wider acceptance thanks to the work of M. King Hubbert, an American geologist who worked for Shell in Houston.
In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil output would top out during the late 1960s; in 1969 he placed it in the first half of the 1970s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert​_​peak_theory

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-12-01 3:53:53 PM  
Geotpf: For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

I'm a generally Republican-voting guy in the South and I want my next car to be electric.  It's a much better technology.

Autoerotic Defenestration: Predictions of when we would run out of oil have been around for a century, but the idea that peak production was rapidly approaching and that it would be followed by ruinous decline gained wider acceptance thanks to the work of M. King Hubbert, an American geologist who worked for Shell in Houston.
In 1956, he predicted that U.S. oil output would top out during the late 1960s; in 1969 he placed it in the first half of the 1970s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_​peak_theory

[Fark user image 500x617]


The premise of your rebuttal is contingent upon the renowned M. King Hubbert being the chief disseminator of Peak Oil hysteria.  This is silly, of course.  But good effort with all the memes and whatnot.
 
2020-12-01 4:32:17 PM  

neaorin: Geotpf:See how cheap used low mileage Nissan Leafs (which means the $7,500 Federal tax break has already been used) are for an example of the lack of demand.

Even the new Leaf is meh, the older models kinda suck to be honest, which is why sales fell off a cliff the second the Tesla Model 3 arrived. Nissan seems to be focusing all their efforts on the new Ariya, which has a better chance of competing in the US market.


I used the Leaf only as an example.  This applies to all used electric cars in the US.  Let's look at actual examples near me, and exclude Leafs.

https://www.carmax.com/car/19517070 (gonna hafta copy/paste, I'm afraid)

2017 BMW i3 with only 5,000 miles: $18k

When you have you seen any BMW with only 5k miles for that cheap?

If Mercedes is more your style...

https://www.carmax.com/car/19697682

2017 Mercedes B250e with 10k miles: $18k

If you only have half that much to spend...

https://www.carmax.com/car/19696054

2014 Chevy Spark EV with 36k miles: $9k

And these are inflated Carmax prices.  You could probably knock a couple grand off on private party sales.
 
2020-12-01 5:28:55 PM  

FLMountainMan: The premise of your rebuttal is contingent upon the renowned M. King Hubbert being the chief disseminator of Peak Oil hysteria.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-12-01 6:43:24 PM  

Geotpf: yet_another_wumpus: Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

"Peak Oil" assumed that the laws of supply and demand simply didn't apply to oil, because reasons.  And they pointed to the guys predictions of "peak oil in the US" being right because he simply plotted the cost of US oil production vs. the cost of world oil production and figured they would cross in the 1970s, meaning that less and less oil would be drilled in the US.

And somehow, every electric car made is being sold (less the "compliance car" truck companies make to keep selling muscle cars alongside their trucks).  Odd that Ford canceled their "compliance car" and decided to badge their new electric car as a "mustang" if nobody wants an electric car.
/the ICE is great at providing power, distance, and efficiency
//just not power and efficiency in the same engine
///and the smartphone/mobile electronics have pushed battery R&D into hyperdrive for decades

Ford with the electric Mustang (and GM with the electric Hummer) are both going up market, competing with Tesla, at the $50-100k+ level, where there is a (small) market.

There's no all electric F-150 or equivalent.  There's no all electric Camry or equivalent.  There's no all electric Civic or equivalent.  The all electric market is only for high priced, high featured, high content, second vehicles.


The Rivian is comparable to an F-150, and Ford is invested in Rivian to the tune of half a billion dollars. Rivian has designed their "skateboard" to be the same wheelbase as an f-150, and uses f-150 bodies to drive around undercover:
Fark user imageView Full Size


Now, ~$70k is steeper than I'd pay for a pickup, electric or otherwise, but we're not outside the ballpark for a high-trim f-150 with an ICE.
 
2020-12-01 6:53:16 PM  
I remember when this was a thing. The whole idea was extrapolation from past trends. It was a simple mapping of the amount of reserves being developed against reserves petering out.

The main takeaway was that the rate of extraction would eventually be so great, and demand unlimited, that no matter how quickly new resources would be found, no additional production could be achieved. Supply reaches a limit. Demand doesn't. Then prices shoot through the roof and society collapses.

So what went wrong? Well. More or less everything. There was a time not too long ago when people thought oil would go to 200 per barrel. Exploration skyrocketed. Fracking came into its own. So "supply" got a shot in the arm. Then the complements came online. Distillates, natural gas also got developed and used. And the substitutes. Solar, wind, even "clean coal" became popular as people got ready for dear oil.

And peak oil, representing a limit of extraction rate, became peak oil, the oil price crash from oversupply in ... what.... 2015? 2014? And just when it looked like there might be some recovery from that crash, along comes COVID to turn oil prices negative for a while. Frackers go out of business. Exploration screeches to a halt.

So what happens now? Well, we start all over again. The supply problem is not a problem because short run demand has cratered. Electric vehicles are nice and all, and if people in the US are excited about them, well, it is about damn time. Japan's oil consumption has been more or less flat for 50 years. The US? Not hardly. But if you look at what is happening in India and China and the rest of the world, even if the most ambitious outlook for EVs comes true, we will be back at 100 dollar per barrel oil eventually. And people will start talking about Canadian tar sands, fracking bonanzas, Siberia, the Arctic, and.... peak oil.

But we are better off now. The problem can be attacked from both the supply and demand side. I doubt people are going to be putting doomsday scenario videos all over youtube anytime soon. It will be peak lithium or peak kallium or peak bandwidth or whatever.
 
2020-12-01 7:18:24 PM  

Geotpf: neaorin: Geotpf:See how cheap used low mileage Nissan Leafs (which means the $7,500 Federal tax break has already been used) are for an example of the lack of demand.

Even the new Leaf is meh, the older models kinda suck to be honest, which is why sales fell off a cliff the second the Tesla Model 3 arrived. Nissan seems to be focusing all their efforts on the new Ariya, which has a better chance of competing in the US market.

I used the Leaf only as an example.  This applies to all used electric cars in the US.  Let's look at actual examples near me, and exclude Leafs.

https://www.carmax.com/car/19517070 (gonna hafta copy/paste, I'm afraid)

2017 BMW i3 with only 5,000 miles: $18k

When you have you seen any BMW with only 5k miles for that cheap?

If Mercedes is more your style...

https://www.carmax.com/car/19697682

2017 Mercedes B250e with 10k miles: $18k

If you only have half that much to spend...

https://www.carmax.com/car/19696054

2014 Chevy Spark EV with 36k miles: $9k

And these are inflated Carmax prices.  You could probably knock a couple grand off on private party sales.


Ha!  This is relevant to my interests! Amazing.

If I am to believe that the batteries on these vehicles are not shot, and that they are low maintenance vehicles with a very long useful life, then this is a real anomaly in pricing. Something is "wrong".

Are people buying these vehicles, taking the subsidies, driving them for a year or two, and then kicking them to the aftermarket? If so, then that is causing a really steep drop in value that is probably pulling down prices for all EVs.... new and used.

Could it be that subsidies are actually hurting the EV market? I wonder. We know that EVs, certain EVs, would sell at a premium because they were cool and green and featured in Avengers movies. Then of course, prices fell to attract more of the green crowd with less money. What now? Expand to more countries willing to offer subsidies, of course. Or buy a company that has not used up its subsidy quota.

Or, you can hope to produce at lower cost. But if you get addicted to the subsidies, there is less incentive to do that.

Japan has a national market. If you get a subsidy in Hokkaido and try to sell your vehicle in Okinawa before (it used to be) 6 years, you get your subsidy yanked, and I think a penalty. But in the states? Get a subsidy in California, drive to Washington, sell your car and who cares? Who follows that up? Nobody. You can probably do some hankypanky with loans and leases too.

This is interesting stuff. Aftermarkets intrigue me. New car sales figures get jiggered around in all kinds of ways, but aftermarkets can sometimes show HOW those cars are sold, to WHOM, and WHY.
 
2020-12-01 7:26:18 PM  

neaorin: Geotpf: For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

3.3 percent of global new car sales in October have been pure battery EVs. In addition to that, many more people would like to own an electric car but can't afford one. In markets like China and Europe they do offer smaller, affordable electric cars (like the Renault Zoe for instance) and new battery electric car sales have hit 6.5 percent in Europe and 5.4 percent in China. Markets with a lot of spending power like Germany are at 8.4 percent pure EVs for new sales.

The US is just playing catch-up, which is a bit ironic given that it was Tesla that proved the viability of this type of car.


Tesla. An American car company. Taken over years ago by a South African, with production started in a Toyota factory, with guts developed by Panasonic, now assembling in Germany and China, with American pride.

Oh no. Don't be angry. I just fail to see any irony. There is little that is American in Tesla's origin or behavior, other than a certain Trumpy flavor and COVID denial.
 
2020-12-01 8:10:42 PM  

Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.


It meant "we will never (for a given value of ever) produce that much oil again."

It was often stated as a matter of supply, but that is because nobody saw it as a result of demand dropping.

Back in 2009 they said that 2007 was the peak of oil consumption in the US. With high efficiency vehicles and appliances (don't forget Hawaii burns oil for electricity, only power plants like it in the US) we'd probably never use that much energy again, and definitely not as much oil. Growth in demand in India and China caused them to overtake us. Our demand used to define oil prices, but no more. Now the prices in our country are set mostly by projected demand in Asia.

We owned 2 semis that got 5 mpgs from the early 2000s. Still got one but it sits as a backup for our two 2016s that get about 8 mpgs. With the right setup, Freightliner insists its Cascadia Evolutions can get 10 mpgs. That is half the fuel for the same freight. I doubt that in reality they can get above 9 but I'm not an expert, just a guy who owns a couple trucks.

If production drops globally because of demand rather than supply, then all the better. If we really need it we know where it is. I'll be happy that peak oil happened before supply maxed out.
 
2020-12-01 8:24:50 PM  

Geotpf: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Geotpf: thrasherrr: It's easy to say things happen when you change the definition of the things.

Peak Oil used to be the point where we could not extract as much oil as before.

Now apparently it is the point at which consumption is less than last month.

Yeah, that's not what peak oil means.  At all.

It was "we are going to run out of oil," not "we are going to stop using oil".

Plus, their logic is lacking even with that.

For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

This post is going to become increasingly funny over the next decade.

There is no proof of significant organic demand for mass market electric vehicles.  Tesla level, luxury second vehicles from $50k to $100k and up, sure, there's a significant, albeit still niche, demand.  (I suspect the vast majority of Tesla owners also own a gas powered vehicle, probably a hybrid SUV or minivan, for road trips.)  But below that?  Nope.  See how cheap used low mileage Nissan Leafs (which means the $7,500 Federal tax break has already been used) are for an example of the lack of demand.


Pretty caustic stuff. This post will age in one of two ways. Geotpf is describing something most people ignore. What customers are being served, and how?

The biggest recent news about EVs is about governments forcing their people to buy zero emission vehicles. Gains from lobbying. Rent seeking behavior. Usually, that does not work out well for producers OR consumers. But maybe this is what EV producers have to resort to. Sex appeal, snob appeal, green appeal... once all of that has been exhausted, maybe the next step is just to force people to buy them.

That is one way of doing things.
 
2020-12-01 9:51:56 PM  
Peal Oil was the moment when extraction exceeded discoveries. 15 years or so ago.

Kenneth Deffeyes had a blog about it way back when. Deffeyes was an oil geologist who worked with the guy (M. King Hubbert) who coined the term.

Tar sands. Shale oil. They're hydrocarbons of which there's plenty. Peat. Coal. Wood. Lots of hydrocarbons.

Following Roosevelt's embargo on oil to Japan, the Japanese developed automobiles than ran on coal. In  a pinch, people will burn anything. I've thought for a long time that Gaia had a hand in showing men the Newcomen engine and then just sat back knowing we'd kill ourselves.
 
2020-12-02 2:00:44 AM  

2fardownthread: neaorin: Geotpf: For example, their predictions on electric car sales are bullshiat.  Frankly, only about one or two percent of people actually want an electric car (because they are inferior because you can't take a road trip (at least not without tons of planning)), and they've pretty much all already bought one.  Now, governments can force such down people's throats, but people can also vote out governments.

3.3 percent of global new car sales in October have been pure battery EVs. In addition to that, many more people would like to own an electric car but can't afford one. In markets like China and Europe they do offer smaller, affordable electric cars (like the Renault Zoe for instance) and new battery electric car sales have hit 6.5 percent in Europe and 5.4 percent in China. Markets with a lot of spending power like Germany are at 8.4 percent pure EVs for new sales.

The US is just playing catch-up, which is a bit ironic given that it was Tesla that proved the viability of this type of car.

Tesla. An American car company. Taken over years ago by a South African, with production started in a Toyota factory, with guts developed by Panasonic, now assembling in Germany and China, with American pride.

Oh no. Don't be angry. I just fail to see any irony. There is little that is American in Tesla's origin or behavior, other than a certain Trumpy flavor and COVID denial.


For a decade California was both the site of Tesla's only assembly location as well as its main market. Even today it's still their #1 market, the first market they start new deliveries in (model Y), and the only assembly location for the high-end S and X models. The Cybertruck will be made in Texas and it'll only be offered in North America. The factory in Germany is not even online yet, most of Europe is supplied from Fremont with the rest from Shanghai.

As for Musk being born in South Africa, isn't one of the US' main selling points the fact that it's a land of opportunity, and thus attracts a lot of bright people willing to take risks? Tesla's head of AI was born in Slovakia, that doesn't make Autopilot an European product.
 
2020-12-02 4:50:44 AM  

neaorin: The Japanese have their heads stuck up their asses. Mazda too. I guess this transition to electric will produce different winners and losers.


The Japanese are coming around, albeit very slowly. Toyota finally went from "hydrogen is the future" to "we'll continue to make the Mirai just in case hydrogen becomes a thing." Their new BEV looks farking bananas. I'm very excited. It's been spotted without camouflage around Tokyo and it looks like it could be the second coming of the Prius. I'm not sure what the fark Honda is doing, but they've formed a partnership with CATL which is a good sign. Nissan got Ghosn out and designed the Ariya at an amazing pace. They'll sell as many of those things as they can make, and they say they have more models on the way. They'll do well if they can get their hands on enough batteries. There's also rumors of an electric Suzuki Jimny, which I would buy in two seconds, but apparently it's going to be exclusive to the Indian market.

The government here is coming around too. They recently announced that the EV subsidy will double next year (from $4Kish to $8Kish, direct cash deposit) for buyers who switch to a green tariff and keep the car for at least 4 years. The minister of economics announced that they want to push clean power. He said he's going to "generously fund" grid storage batteries and wind farms.
 
2020-12-02 5:08:22 AM  

2fardownthread: The biggest recent news about EVs is about governments forcing their people to buy zero emission vehicles. Gains from lobbying. Rent seeking behavior.


Wake us up when they get to the same level of rent-seeking, lobbying, tax-dodging, and externality-ignoring of fossil fuel companies. Then we'll take your "concerns" seriously.
 
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