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(WSOCTV)   According to the CDC, cases of reinfection with COVID-19 are rare. North Carolina: Hold my unworn face mask   (wsoctv.com) divider line
    More: Fail, time of the test result, Computer program, The Opportunity, German language, common threads, near future, case, opportunity  
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555 clicks; posted to STEM » on 01 Dec 2020 at 1:25 PM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



7 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2020-12-01 1:08:50 PM  
Mecklenburg County. Home to Bank of America. That means there's a non-zero chance bank executives got it twice.

This feels nice.
 
2020-12-01 1:53:34 PM  
What is the % threshold for rare? The only reference I have is that in a booster pack, 6.67% of the cards were "rare", 20% "uncommon" and 73.3% "common"
 
2020-12-01 2:00:48 PM  
County had ~530,000 tests.
https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/COVI​D-19-Data-Dashboard.aspx

Say 0.3% false positive.
https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-po​s​itives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

That's 1600 false positives vs 34 reinfections...  Lets lose our shet about something else?
 
2020-12-01 2:04:19 PM  
"This means each individual has had two documented positive tests more than three months apart."

I saw no mention of a negative in the interim. I've seen the "long-haulers" being described as continuing to test positive in some cases.
 
2020-12-01 4:12:13 PM  
Was this determined solely by testing or did they present symptomatically? inquiring minds want to know
 
2020-12-01 7:42:23 PM  

xanderak: County had ~530,000 tests.
https://www.mecknc.gov/news/Pages/COVI​D-19-Data-Dashboard.aspx

Say 0.3% false positive.
https://www.icd10monitor.com/false-pos​itives-in-pcr-tests-for-covid-19

That's 1600 false positives vs 34 reinfections...  Lets lose our shet about something else?


Oh, and by the way, 530K tests * (0.3%^2) is roughly 5. Times 1%, the official rated accuracy of these tests, is 50.

"This announcement comes after Stanly County also reported two cases of reinfection.

Health officials told Channel 9 the first individual tested positive in March and tested positive a second time 33 weeks later. The second person tested positive in August and tested positive a second time approximately 14 weeks later."

To say that these cases, in Stanly, do not represent the normal immune system outcome of covid infection - which is virtually total protection lasting a minimum of the 8 months that we have reasonable data for - is a spectacular understatement.

That said, given that the most effective vaccines known for -anything- produce approximately 99% protection, it would be even more shocking to NOT have seen documented second infections with a sample size of 12 million. In a large enough sample, there's always going to be someone whose immune system rolls a 1d20. In normally recovered individuals, the sars-2 antibody concentration has been observed to vary by a factor of nearly 500 to 1.

Plus, if these are PCR tests (given 0.3% false + rates I suspect they are), the other thing to remember is that PCR tests if done properly are *ludicrously* sensitive. They will literally pick up a single-digit number of fragments of viral RNA in a sample and return a positive, despite the fact that an individual would need to have a concentration a thousand times higher, of intact viruses and not fragments from the immune system's war, to infect anyone.

And here, again, is your helpful "how many reinfections if immunity expired by X months" chart,

Fark user imageView Full Size


I should scrape the "# of tests" from Worldometer and plug in 1 and 0.1% false positives to generate a baseline...
 
2020-12-01 9:31:53 PM  

erik-k: Oh, and by the way, 530K tests * (0.3%^2) is roughly 5. Times 1%, the official rated accuracy of these tests, is 50.
....................


Nice essay on odds of getting a false positive twice.
 
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