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(Twitter)   The best way to get a non-expert loudmouth to listen is to ask him to explain how something works   (twitter.com) divider line
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1451 clicks; posted to STEM » on 01 Dec 2020 at 6:08 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-11-30 9:07:59 PM  
Original Tweet:

 
2020-11-30 10:07:39 PM  
 
2020-11-30 10:50:36 PM  
Nice try, Ethan. I see an Ethan on that paper, but it's not your name. Explain to me what the researchers found.
 
2020-12-01 4:28:30 AM  

naughtyrev: Nice try, Ethan. I see an Ethan on that paper, but it's not your name. Explain to me what the researchers found.


Which he did in the next tweet, almost like he knew someone would make your (clever) joke. https://twitter.com/emollick/st​atus/13​33571786043232262

pbs.twimg.comView Full Size
 
2020-12-01 6:20:13 AM  
Except that Trump would still spend 5 minutes not finishing a single sentence, or train of thought, attempting to bluff his way through making it sound like his grasp of the subject is solid. Just ask the CDC and the poor saps at the Clorox helpline call centre.

/drink!
 
2020-12-01 6:45:07 AM  
This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."
 
2020-12-01 7:07:51 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


Or don't you love a person who will admit that they have no idea how something works, but they know that what an expert is proposing will not work. Welcome to the New Age of Anti-intellectualism
 
2020-12-01 7:08:00 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


"...I knew that, but it could work that way"

No.  No it can't, no it wouldn't, no it won't.  Thankyouforyourinput.
 
2020-12-01 7:32:36 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


I ask people "What would that look like?"
If they get defensive, I ask them to write it out and we will revisit it tomorrow or get it back to me today.

It cuts down on a lot of wasted time in meetings.
 
2020-12-01 7:47:42 AM  
Ours is a dictatorship style leadership here
Them "Do it this way or else"
Us" Yes sir three bags full" (knowing it's a crapfest of a plan)
Later that day Them "What happened why didnt that work/"
Us "We did what you wanted done We now await further instruction"

Also Us We dont give a rip this is totally on them
 
2020-12-01 8:07:06 AM  
Oh please, asking idiots to explain their false idea  is how we got a creationism museum behind the Korean spa district in Dallas.
 
2020-12-01 8:10:55 AM  
"It does, just look it up!"

Obviously Elon has not spent much time on the internet discussing things with people

bet he would have a hoot on some conspiracy message boards
 
2020-12-01 8:28:00 AM  
Trade with China hurts because China cheats like a motherfarker.   They've done things like pegged the Yuan artificially low to the dollar in order to get manufacturing to move from the US over to China because it's less expensive.

They've also kept wages lower for their workers compared to ours.

They've slapped tariffs and other taxes on goods imported from the US to China to make them artificially more expensive for Chinese people to purchase, while insisting on low or no tariffs on goods imported from China to the United States.

And not only does that hurt the US economically by moving relatively decent paying factory jobs from the US to China, it hurts the US from a strategic standpoint.   You could argue from a purely economic standpoint that it's the way things should go, but from a political standpoint, it puts the United States at the mercy of the People's Republic of China.

How so?

If nearly all of your military electronics components come from a single nation, if you piss off that nation, they can embargo those components.  Then you're farked, because if you're using up those components in a miltiary situation, you're going to run out of them.

And it's not just capacitors and integrated circuits.   It's also things like drugs.   Almost all of the antibiotics used in the US come from China, and China hasn't been above hinting that it could fark the US over by a trade embargo:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12​/​20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-expor​ts-088126

In a rare high-profile public comment, one former central bank adviser suggested that China could curb its exports of antibiotics to the United States as a trade war retaliation tool.

"We are at the mercy of others when it comes to computer chips, but we are the world's largest exporter of raw materials for vitamins and antibiotics," Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University, said in March 2019 while speaking at the National People's Conference.

"Should we reduce the exports, the medical systems of some western countries will not run well," he added.



Doesn't take a degree in Economics from an Ivy League school to know that trade with China has been bad for the US, because it's cost jobs *AND* it puts US foreign policy at the mercy of a totalitarian dictatorship.
 
2020-12-01 8:49:29 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


Or my dead brother's favorite retort during religious "discussions"*, "Don't be an idiot".

*I had eight years of religious schooling, he had zero. I could always come up with a bible quote that disproved his position.  The bible is good for that.
 
2020-12-01 8:52:59 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


There may be a defensiveness to avoid public shame effect going on. From a followup tweet:

"To clarify, the method was to have non-expert PRIVATELY write down their explanation on how something works or why they have a particular belief; not for the expert to quiz them & tell them that they were wrong. It was a self-realization that they didn't understand that mattered!"
 
2020-12-01 9:06:05 AM  

natazha: I could always come up with a bible quote that disproved his position.


Yeah, I don't think you know what the word "disproved" means.
 
2020-12-01 9:07:38 AM  
I think you're more likely to get inundated with a shiatload of factually incorrect badly researched YouTube videos that "explain" their point for them
 
2020-12-01 9:27:52 AM  
The graphs look like the study only made 1-2% difference, if any, as the error bars overlap.
Someone explain what I'm missing.
 
2020-12-01 9:34:35 AM  

Ambitwistor: question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."

There may be a defensiveness to avoid public shame effect going on. From a followup tweet:

"To clarify, the method was to have non-expert PRIVATELY write down their explanation on how something works or why they have a particular belief; not for the expert to quiz them & tell them that they were wrong. It was a self-realization that they didn't understand that mattered!"


That requires the non-expert to be semi-literate with a writing ability beyond third grade. This will be impossible for the majority of folks on any form of social media.
 
2020-12-01 9:34:54 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


Which is why I preface a proposal with, "I have part of an idea."
 
2020-12-01 10:02:04 AM  

dittybopper: Trade with China hurts because China cheats like a motherfarker.   They've done things like pegged the Yuan artificially low to the dollar in order to get manufacturing to move from the US over to China because it's less expensive.

They've also kept wages lower for their workers compared to ours.

They've slapped tariffs and other taxes on goods imported from the US to China to make them artificially more expensive for Chinese people to purchase, while insisting on low or no tariffs on goods imported from China to the United States.

And not only does that hurt the US economically by moving relatively decent paying factory jobs from the US to China, it hurts the US from a strategic standpoint.   You could argue from a purely economic standpoint that it's the way things should go, but from a political standpoint, it puts the United States at the mercy of the People's Republic of China.

How so?

If nearly all of your military electronics components come from a single nation, if you piss off that nation, they can embargo those components.  Then you're farked, because if you're using up those components in a miltiary situation, you're going to run out of them.

And it's not just capacitors and integrated circuits.   It's also things like drugs.   Almost all of the antibiotics used in the US come from China, and China hasn't been above hinting that it could fark the US over by a trade embargo:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/​20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-expor​ts-088126

In a rare high-profile public comment, one former central bank adviser suggested that China could curb its exports of antibiotics to the United States as a trade war retaliation tool.

"We are at the mercy of others when it comes to computer chips, but we are the world's largest exporter of raw materials for vitamins and antibiotics," Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University, said in March 2019 while speaking at the National People's Conference.

"Should we reduce the expo ...


You aren't wrong when it comes to what they do, or have done in a trade war. This is why a trade war is a bad idea in today's day and age. We cannot just sever what has become an essential part of our own economy.
 
2020-12-01 10:15:30 AM  

wildcardjack: Oh please, asking idiots to explain their false idea  is how we got a creationism museum behind the Korean spa district in Dallas.


Creating happy endings?
 
2020-12-01 10:20:59 AM  
Yeah right.
In the best case scenario, the person behaves in a rational manner, admits that they really don't know, and listens to an actual expert.
The odds are more likely that you'll get a bunch of equivocation, stretching of logic, and statements like "experts aren't always right" or "they don't understand how the real world works."
 
2020-12-01 10:30:28 AM  

eyeq360: Yeah right.
In the best case scenario, the person behaves in a rational manner, admits that they really don't know, and listens to an actual expert.
The odds are more likely that you'll get a bunch of equivocation, stretching of logic, and statements like "experts aren't always right" or "they don't understand how the real world works."


Do you even 2020, yo?
 
2020-12-01 10:36:34 AM  

phimuskapsi: dittybopper: Trade with China hurts because China cheats like a motherfarker.   They've done things like pegged the Yuan artificially low to the dollar in order to get manufacturing to move from the US over to China because it's less expensive.

They've also kept wages lower for their workers compared to ours.

They've slapped tariffs and other taxes on goods imported from the US to China to make them artificially more expensive for Chinese people to purchase, while insisting on low or no tariffs on goods imported from China to the United States.

And not only does that hurt the US economically by moving relatively decent paying factory jobs from the US to China, it hurts the US from a strategic standpoint.   You could argue from a purely economic standpoint that it's the way things should go, but from a political standpoint, it puts the United States at the mercy of the People's Republic of China.

How so?

If nearly all of your military electronics components come from a single nation, if you piss off that nation, they can embargo those components.  Then you're farked, because if you're using up those components in a miltiary situation, you're going to run out of them.

And it's not just capacitors and integrated circuits.   It's also things like drugs.   Almost all of the antibiotics used in the US come from China, and China hasn't been above hinting that it could fark the US over by a trade embargo:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/​20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-expor​ts-088126

In a rare high-profile public comment, one former central bank adviser suggested that China could curb its exports of antibiotics to the United States as a trade war retaliation tool.

"We are at the mercy of others when it comes to computer chips, but we are the world's largest exporter of raw materials for vitamins and antibiotics," Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University, said in March 2019 while speaking at the National People's Conference.

"Should we reduce the expo ...

You aren't wrong when it comes to what they do, or have done in a trade war. This is why a trade war is a bad idea in today's day and age. We cannot just sever what has become an essential part of our own economy.


It's a curious thing that for medicine or engineering, people generally expect some demonstrated bona fides to be considered knowledgeable, but not for economics or diplomacy, as though any old amateur can figure it out from cable news and youtube videos.  That's bullcrap derived from a lack of respect of the subject that comes from an incomplete grasp of the subject.   Sure, the strategic balance issue is concerning, but where education helps is in realizing that the US response in the past four years was pants-on-head stupid.  Tarriffs are fundamentally a tax on the consumer, not the producer, and are more prone to encourage currency appreciation which hurts industries oriented toward export while having (depending on the elasticity of demand) an ambiguous effect on consumption of the good (and thus an ambiguous effect on domestic producers).  So yeah, the Yuan was probably about 20% low, but then we threw them a bone and helped them keep it low and fscked over US exporters (Soybean farmers for example) so we could return a number of manufacturing jobs wholly dispropprtionate to the losses to exports and increased consumer prices.  It's a very stupid and cowardly way to fight a strategic contest.  It's being done because fundamentally, the political leadership would rather be seen as doing something rather than actually standing up for China's strategic creep.  Cambodia and Vietnam are getting choked to death by the Chinese diversion of the Mekong River.  The Philippines is having its offshore territory (oil) usurped.  We're abandoning partnerships in Africa and Asia to the Belt and Road because every year since 2017 the USAID budget proposal is zeroed out (and then partially restored by the Congress each time).

These things happen because the decisionmakers and the electors thereof don't grasp that this stuff comprises more than simplistic catch phrases and plug their ears at the prospect of unintended second-order effects.  Some folks wonder why ivory tower critics get so frustrated, and its because people go around playing that they are experts in the equivalent of physics but simulteneously too good to learn arithmetic.
 
2020-12-01 10:49:12 AM  

miscreant: I think you're more likely to get inundated with a shiatload of factually incorrect badly researched YouTube videos that "explain" their point for them


"Do your own research!"
 
2020-12-01 10:50:07 AM  
006andahalf:It's a curious thing that for medicine or engineering, people generally expect some demonstrated bona fides to be considered knowledgeable, but not for economics or diplomacy, as though any old amateur can figure it out from cable news and youtube videos.

Uh, we know from the current pandemic that people don't expect demonstrated expertise in medicine either.
 
2020-12-01 11:03:04 AM  

006andahalf: It's a curious thing that for medicine or engineering, people generally expect some demonstrated bona fides to be considered knowledgeable,


Really? Remember these golden oldies?
- Jet fuel can't melt steel beams
- Climate change isn't real
- COVID was created in a Chinese lab
- COVID is no worse than the flu
- Masks make you inhale carbon dioxide
- Hydroxychloroquine will kill COVID
- WHO/CDC are lying
- Vaccines cause autism

Etcetera, etcetera, ad infinitum, ad nauseum. Experts galore around the world are available and yet people stick their fingers in their ears and go, "La, la, la, I can't hear you. The folks on Fox and OANN brought on specialists who told me the real truth!" No matter how many facts and figures you provide them these barrels of fetid monkey spunk will continue spewing their garbage.
 
2020-12-01 11:55:35 AM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


When I was a young engineer, I had a program manager (was also a very talented engineer, miss ya Bob) who would not hesitate to berate youngsters if we would begin analyzing and speculating when posed with a question.

"Don't sit here and guess.  Even if it is an educated guess.  Have the balls to say 'I don't know but I'll go find out and report back.'"  It was one of the most valuable lessons I learned on the job.

I teach new engineers that lesson all the time:  Be comfortable with "I don't know."  It's a sign of maturity and the natural first step to inquiry.

And, if you're doing pure research, you have to become comfortable with "I may never know," also.
 
2020-12-01 12:00:36 PM  
I rely on that a lot. Asking questions quiets things down. You have to be patient about all the subject changing though.
 
2020-12-01 12:00:39 PM  

dittybopper: Trade with China hurts because China cheats like a motherfarker.   They've done things like pegged the Yuan artificially low to the dollar in order to get manufacturing to move from the US over to China because it's less expensive.

They've also kept wages lower for their workers compared to ours.

They've slapped tariffs and other taxes on goods imported from the US to China to make them artificially more expensive for Chinese people to purchase, while insisting on low or no tariffs on goods imported from China to the United States.

And not only does that hurt the US economically by moving relatively decent paying factory jobs from the US to China, it hurts the US from a strategic standpoint.   You could argue from a purely economic standpoint that it's the way things should go, but from a political standpoint, it puts the United States at the mercy of the People's Republic of China.

How so?

If nearly all of your military electronics components come from a single nation, if you piss off that nation, they can embargo those components.  Then you're farked, because if you're using up those components in a miltiary situation, you're going to run out of them.

And it's not just capacitors and integrated circuits.   It's also things like drugs.   Almost all of the antibiotics used in the US come from China, and China hasn't been above hinting that it could fark the US over by a trade embargo:

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/​20/policymakers-worry-china-drug-expor​ts-088126

In a rare high-profile public comment, one former central bank adviser suggested that China could curb its exports of antibiotics to the United States as a trade war retaliation tool.

"We are at the mercy of others when it comes to computer chips, but we are the world's largest exporter of raw materials for vitamins and antibiotics," Li Daokui, a professor of economics at Tsinghua University, said in March 2019 while speaking at the National People's Conference.

"Should we reduce the expo ...


Do you know HOW China keeps their currency low against the dollar? They buy US bonds with those dollars instead of holding those dollars. So we can prevent that by not running a massive deficit.

The low Yuan does not attract US manufacturers moving factories - low wages and minimal regulation do. So if you think Americans will go back to working for $1.50 an hour and won't mind unsafe work environments and dumping waste in the environment we can totally compete.

Until Trump the tariffs in place were agreed upon. We had a handful of tariffs against them and they had some against us. They actually did buy a lot of American cars, planes, and medical stuff - and a huge amount of farm/extractive products. We just buy a lot more of the things that they do product cheaply.

US manufacturing faced pressure on multiple fronts. They lost out against premium manufacturing coming out of Europe (luxury cars, fancy watches, premium jewelry, and specialty foods). They lost out against Japan based upon high precision / reliability products which American factories couldn't match (lenses/imaging, motors, capacitors...). Finally, we lost out against generic consumer goods against China (mid-quality clothing, electronics, furniture, toys, random consumer goods) based upon cost and perhaps more importantly - ease of sourcing. American firms like to design something and make it for a long time - the Asian manufacturers have no problem redesigning every year.

Or I will some things up. The US sucks at capitalism. For a nation that thinks that it is the best thing ever, maybe we should be better at it.
 
2020-12-01 12:20:42 PM  
One way that trade with china hurts us is because they devalue their currency, allowing them to export items cheaply and undercut local producers.

And we saw the effect of that during coronavirus (caused by china) because international supply lines failed and essential chemicals were solely being produced in China with no ability to produce them locally.

Even when we elect a leader who has the balls to take on china with the WTO (which can't even, or has never, addressed the currency devaluation aspect), the result is America gets screwed and the WTO sides with china just about every time.
 
2020-12-01 12:34:03 PM  

RussianPotato: One way that trade with china hurts us is because they devalue their currency, allowing them to export items cheaply and undercut local producers.

And we saw the effect of that during coronavirus (caused by china) because international supply lines failed and essential chemicals were solely being produced in China with no ability to produce them locally.

Even when we elect a leader who has the balls to take on china with the WTO (which can't even, or has never, addressed the currency devaluation aspect), the result is America gets screwed and the WTO sides with china just about every time.


Someone hasn't been reading the rest of the comments in the thread.

First of all, China has been controlling the Yuan since I was there in 1998. They have always had tight control over the value, and they do that by buying our bonds. 

Secondly, supply lines failed because all of it is produced in China, as you said, but how do you counteract that? You can't just spin up new factories for these kinds of things, at the same kind of price. 

America doesn't get screwed, in fact, additional tariffs and attempting to "correct" the problem, led to millions of tons of agricultural products sitting on the docks. That ag war cost the US $1.5 billion in subsidies to Iowa soybean farmers. So not only did it cost us income, it cost us tax dollars to boot - and that wasn't the only industry that needed them. 

The tariffs and trade war, also allowed China to look elsewhere for other commodities that they used to solely get from the US, costing more money. 

So - before you claim that Trump is economic Jesus, let's settle down, and look at the facts.
 
2020-12-01 2:03:33 PM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


At least it kills the idea at that point rather than having others pick it up and try to run it forward.
 
2020-12-01 5:28:59 PM  
A few words of caution:

"If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; but if you really make them think, they'll hate you."
- Harlan Ellison

I know this from asking the Trumpers in my family to explain Trump's "successes" to me, and how it is that he knows more than generals, doctors, scientists, etc.
 
2020-12-01 11:16:28 PM  

question_dj: This does not happen with employees on my team. They will propose things, I ask them to explain how it works, they simply get defensive and throw out, "I was just thinking out loud."


Yeah I don't know what bullshiat utopia they got their made up numbers from but it's in the middle of wishful thinking city. Even letting people crash and burn doesn't make them trust experts.
 
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