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(Some Guy)   Mathematician uses model to predict the end of this grueling Covid-19 pandemic and the final date is...never   (kentlive.news) divider line
    More: Scary, Mathematics, Futurology, 2005 singles, Prediction, Research, Mr McCash, Luthais McCash, recent YouGov poll  
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1742 clicks; posted to STEM » on 29 Nov 2020 at 7:05 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



38 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2020-11-29 12:59:07 AM  
Well at some point everyone will be dead..
 
2020-11-29 1:13:43 AM  
Seems like you should be able to drink bleach or shine a light up your butthole. I'm sure I heard that somewhere. Maybe not, nobody could be that crazy.
 
2020-11-29 1:21:56 AM  
No, I'm sure it ends the day before never.
 
2020-11-29 1:26:08 AM  
Sure we've done all the worst things and taken no real action to mitigate spread so it's not like anyone should be surprised.
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-11-29 2:05:04 AM  
Well duh, it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. It moves from a pandemic to endemic.

I mean I'm not the only one that gets the math without RTFA right?
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-11-29 2:06:03 AM  

Rattrap007: Well at some point everyone will be dead..


Thats exactly the reason why it won't go away.
 
2020-11-29 2:10:04 AM  
There are all kinds of horrifying pathogens still around, they just change into weaker or less severe forms.

Modern day syphilis is not nearly the horrorshow it used to be, which means it's transmitted more easily. Modern bubonic plague seems to be less virulent, as well.

The more virulent and devastating a contagion, the more risk it has of burning itself out before it can find hosts. The ones that mutate to be less damaging are more likely to be 'tolerated' and so persist.
 
2020-11-29 2:23:54 AM  
FTA: At the time, as he pointed out at the end of our interview, a local newspaper in Scotland where he grew up had labelled him a 17-year-old "gene genius".

Uhuh. Sure, Sparky. When I hire new profs or look at tenure portfolios, my principal concern is that local papers lauded the genius of said prof when they were teenagers. And the fact that you make sure to point it out only bolsters my confidence in scholarly potential.
 
2020-11-29 2:37:28 AM  
We have the 1918 Spanish Flu to follow as example as we are basically following the same trajectory.
 
2020-11-29 7:25:11 AM  
This one will burn out just like every plague before it. Yes, there will continue to be some cases among the unvaccinated but the numbers won't be anywhere near where they are right now.
 
2020-11-29 7:32:37 AM  

rue_in_winter: There are all kinds of horrifying pathogens still around, they just change into weaker or less severe forms.

Modern day syphilis is not nearly the horrorshow it used to be, which means it's transmitted more easily. Modern bubonic plague seems to be less virulent, as well.

The more virulent and devastating a contagion, the more risk it has of burning itself out before it can find hosts. The ones that mutate to be less damaging are more likely to be 'tolerated' and so persist.


That also works with hosts. The most vulnerable members of the population die from the disease before reproducing. Through the process of natural selection, the surviving population all inherit some resistance. Look at smallpox. Europeans had lived with it for thousands of years. Then it was introduced to the New World by conquistadors, where it had never appeared before, killing 90% of the population.

That also relates to the danger posed by COVID-19. Like smallpox was to 16th Century Mexico, it's a new virus and we haven't evolved any resistance to it at all. Fortunately modern science will soon deliver us a vaccine, but thanks to morons and liars we still have far too many people who refuse to believe in vaccines. And in evolution. Cretins.
 
2020-11-29 7:34:09 AM  
Math genius reproduces basic infectious disease stats model?

I mean good on him for trying to help but I know several colleagues working in this area and it's not that he's exceptional.
 
2020-11-29 7:50:57 AM  
F*ck this idiot.
 
2020-11-29 7:52:13 AM  
If somebody is claiming fame from modeling the spread of suite of unrelated, noncommunicable illnesses (cancer) you out to take their new model very seriously.

/communicable for I bred Tasmanian devils
//and sloots
 
2020-11-29 8:03:23 AM  
"i'm a genius and have correctly predicted everything so far, so you should listen to everything i say"

"can we see your numbers"

"no, but i did show them to some people i know, so it's totally legit"
 
2020-11-29 8:51:26 AM  
Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?
 
2020-11-29 8:53:32 AM  
Meh. They just got rolled for 8 rushing TDs in one game and I supposed to believe them?
 
2020-11-29 8:57:46 AM  
Oh man that article was super useless what the hell
 
2020-11-29 9:05:53 AM  
Well, yeah, that's been obvious for about six months now.  The only way this pandemic ends is with a vaccine.  Medical researchers have been saying this since the beginning, pretty much.

The flu just keeps circling around the world.  COVID-19 is more contagious than the flu.  Given that we failed to contain it back in Q1, and it spread across the globe, containment is no longer an option.

You want the really bad news?  Nobody knows if the vaccine will provide long term immunity yet.  We hope so, we believe so, but we don't know... we can't know actually, not yet.

And if it doesn't, and we don't make sure EVERY country in the world gets their shots, AT RELATIVELY THE SAME TIME, then guess what happens in a few years?  Same thing again.
 
2020-11-29 9:19:13 AM  
What the article actually said:

But he hasn't done specific modelling for how things might develop from here.

"It's actually more difficult to make a prediction now. At the beginning a lot more of the population were doing as they were told. Now it's more difficult to predict because there's a lot of fluidity.

"I will say that I am hypothesising. But my view - and I hope I am wrong - is that it will never end unless we go for a suppression strategy.
 
2020-11-29 10:07:48 AM  
FTFA
He said: "I said this on a podcast months ago: 'If only coronavirus would kill all the stupid people.' And I got such a rapping around the knuckles for it.
Oh it's gonna kill lots and lots of stupid people. Sadly they are gonna take alot of people down with them
 
2020-11-29 10:07:51 AM  

Rattrap007: Well at some point everyone will be dead..


1% will be dead. That seems to be the current rate. Which is good. It's down from 2% at first.

Vlad_the_Inaner: Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?


There were still deaths from the Spanish Flu into 1920.
 
2020-11-29 10:09:25 AM  

Rattrap007: Well at some point everyone will be dead..


If by "everyone" you mean "3 people out of a thousand" you're absolutely right.
 
2020-11-29 10:33:26 AM  

jjorsett: Rattrap007: Well at some point everyone will be dead..

If by "everyone" you mean "3 people out of a thousand" you're absolutely right.


Keynes agrees with him

Fark user imageView Full Size

/you killed Keynes, you bastard!
 
2020-11-29 12:52:57 PM  
A fairly simple fix:  Adopt something akin to China's Covid app, but make it voluntary.

Just allow businesses to enforce it at the door--and make not being vaccinated show in the app.
 
2020-11-29 4:16:01 PM  

Vlad_the_Inaner: Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?


It's different because this guy wants to make $$$ by getting people to listen to him ..
 
2020-11-29 5:09:00 PM  

jjorsett: Rattrap007: Well at some point everyone will be dead..

If by "everyone" you mean "3 people out of a thousand" you're absolutely right.


Meanwhile in reality: 3% of all confirmed US covid cases have ended in death. Let's maybe give that a factor of a half to include unreported and asymptomatic cases.
 
2020-11-29 5:12:16 PM  
R0 is now thought to be 5.7
Incubation is thought to be 4.2 days
Currently, about 4% of the US has been infected.
However, only about 1.5% of the US is currently active with the virus.

This means that without a vaccine or any containment strategy, our best guess is that the US will reach 82% herd immunity in about 15 days, with about 7 million deaths.

However... growth in the US has not actually been that fast.  Despite the covidiots, the R0 in the US has only been about 1.1 (double cases every 6 weeks).

So, in reality, herd immunity will be reached in about 12 months... with about 7 million deaths.
 
2020-11-29 5:46:18 PM  

Vlad_the_Inaner: Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?


Ever hear of H1N1? That's more or less the same virus as The Spanish Flu. It never left, we just eventually built up enough immunity to it that it no longer is as deadly as it was back when we had no immunity.
 
2020-11-29 6:00:05 PM  

darklingscribe: Vlad_the_Inaner: Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?

Ever hear of H1N1? That's more or less the same virus as The Spanish Flu. It never left, we just eventually built up enough immunity to it that it no longer is as deadly as it was back when we had no immunity.


Or perhaps it evolved to be less deadly, as that would increase its chances to propagate better

Either way, TFH's " the final date is...never " is over the top.

/Both Spanish Flu and 2009's flu (aka A(H1N1)pdm09 ) pandemic are H1N1 , yet they are not the same strain
 
2020-11-29 6:23:41 PM  
This kid's comments are based more on statistics and sociological commentary than pure mathematics.
 
2020-11-29 7:28:14 PM  
imgs.xkcd.comView Full Size
 
2020-11-29 8:54:46 PM  
"Mr McCash, who has an auto-immune disease"

Perhaps his insistence on a 12 month, global lock down has the practical goal of not kill Mr McCash any time soon.  In the long term this isn't likely to have much effect on the direction of the human race.  If it does, it'll probably in the direction of improved knowledge of virology and speedier reaction time toward vaccines.


Ass_Master_Flash: We have the 1918 Spanish Flu to follow as example as we are basically following the same trajectory.


Yeah.  I guess that never ended either.

The 1918 H1N1 variant killed about 10% of those it infected.  It infected ~500k people, about 1/3 of the human population back then, and killed about 50k or about 1/30th of the population.  This present corona virus could potentially be as deadly if medical therapy wasn't 100 years advanced from 1918.

1/30th of *today's* population would be around 250 million people.  So far we've reached about 1.5 million dead of the corona virus globally, so it'd have to keep going at this rate for another 6 or more years to catch up to the 1918 flu.

In the meantime we've got several vaccines emerging.  By the time everyone who want's a shot gets a shot, McCrash's prior statement "If only coronavirus would kill all the stupid people" may come true... except for the people like him who have an immune issue.  But eventually this virus *will* fade away - even if we have to add it to the recommended vaccine shots forever.  Yes, a lot more people will die of it before it's gone for good, but our behavior as humans will be the reason.  And if the human race can't survive being human, then perhaps we *should* make room for our evolutionary replacements.
 
2020-11-29 8:58:06 PM  

Stephen_Falken: This kid's comments are based more on statistics and sociological commentary than pure mathematics.


He has an immune disorder and is scared spitless of the virus.  As I would be too in his position.
 
2020-11-30 12:50:12 AM  

Gordon Bennett: This one will burn out just like every plague before it. Yes, there will continue to be some cases among the unvaccinated but the numbers won't be anywhere near where they are right now.


The gent is quite right in asserting that we don't know how effective the vaccines will be once administered to the general population.  That's the case for any new pharmaceutical.
 
2020-11-30 6:27:23 AM  

SomeAmerican: You want the really bad news?  Nobody knows if the vaccine will provide long term immunity yet.  We hope so, we believe so, but we don't know... we can't know actually, not yet.


The even worse news?  We have no idea what the long term prognosis is for COVID survivors, regardless of whether they were symptomatic or asymptomatic.

Many polio survivors ended up with some/all of the symptoms of what came to be called post-polio syndrome, sometimes as long as decades after their initial infection (my ex-wife was one of them).  With COVID, we already know of issues involving lung scarring, heart damage, diabetes, and neurological/mental health issues, just to mention a few.  The full range of COVID-related health problems won't be known for years.  Hell, we don't even know if it will "reactivate" years down the line, as chicken pox sometimes reactivates and becomes shingles.
 
2020-11-30 8:10:23 AM  

Wave Of Anal Fury: Hell, we don't even know if it will "reactivate" years down the line, as chicken pox sometimes reactivates and becomes shingles.


yeah, but an RNA Corona virus acting as a retrovirus, which are usually double stranded DNA viruses, would be a pretty big new discovery in the world of science.
 
2020-11-30 9:23:35 AM  

Vlad_the_Inaner: Is the pandemic of the 1918 flu strain, aka 'Spanish' over?

If yes, then how is the math different than Covid-19?


You don't get attention by saying the Spanish flu will never end
 
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