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(AOL)   "Sweet Sixteen" birthday party lead to 56 Covid cases, nearly 300 in quarantine. Man, this New Math is killer   (aol.com) divider line
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1860 clicks; posted to Main » on 30 Oct 2020 at 4:01 PM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-10-30 1:40:05 PM  
media1.tenor.comView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 4:05:31 PM  
Stupid people who refuse to behave responsibly are killing people who want nothing to do with their stupidity.
 
2020-10-30 4:05:53 PM  
The venue was issued a $17,000 fine.

That'll show them!

*rolls eyes*
 
2020-10-30 4:05:58 PM  
Actually it was a wedding and an adult birthday party that caused the covid infections and subsequent quarantine, but that's okay, Subby. You'll get it right next time.
 
2020-10-30 4:06:46 PM  
Could you please write that as a number sentence, by making tens?
 
2020-10-30 4:07:05 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 4:10:26 PM  
I saw a question on a Q&A board about someone having a birthday party with 20 guests in a one bedroom apartment.  They were concerned about the noise and wondered if they should alert the neighbors ahead of time.  That's very considerate giving the neighbors an opportunity to get of out range of the super spreader event.
 
2020-10-30 4:11:07 PM  
Play stupid games, get stupid prizes.
 
2020-10-30 4:12:54 PM  
If I was Jeffrey Epstein, I'd have a vanity plate on my car that says "SWEET16"
 
2020-10-30 4:15:58 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 4:16:26 PM  
I don't even... I must be super-duper-dumb but if I care about you why would I invite you to a large gathering where you could possibly/probably get sick?
 
2020-10-30 4:17:16 PM  
I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.
 
2020-10-30 4:19:36 PM  
The "Sweet Septagenarian" party phenomenon really never took off unfortunately.
And we had Tone-Loc!
 
2020-10-30 4:24:28 PM  

MattyBlast: Actually it was a wedding and an adult birthday party that caused the covid infections and subsequent quarantine, but that's okay, Subby. You'll get it right next time.


Subby probably confused these with the illegal Sweet Sixteen Superspreader party a few weeks ago in the same area.
 
2020-10-30 4:33:27 PM  
So, I have to be the first?

Tom Lehrer - New Math (Animated)
Youtube UIKGV2cTgqA
 
2020-10-30 4:34:03 PM  

Walker: [media1.tenor.com image 400x216] [View Full Size image _x_]


Oh look, Ed, she's gotten her boobies.
 
2020-10-30 4:34:08 PM  
Married? Yah, married!
 
2020-10-30 4:35:10 PM  

BobCumbers: I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.


really, I bet 90%of them become symptomatic, 5% of them become ill enough to be hospitalized and 1.2% of them die.   From this group and the current R0 in NY being still roughly 1, in one week we should another 56 infections from this cluster of confirmed infected people.  So again 90% symptomatic and another 5% hospitalized and 1.2% of them dying.  So we're looking at perhaps 6 people in the hospital and maybe 1 or 2 of them dying.

That's assuming you tested and tracked everyone perfectly from these two events and have perfect quarantine.

Or, in two weeks we have about 112 infected people ready to R0 this out again the following week.

If the track/test/quarantine protocol is not about 85% perfectly executed then in week 3 you have about 56 undetected infected individuals in the community.

So, if you stop and trap a cluster of about 50 then you have a high probability of about 1 fatality.   If you don't trap it, then you start your way up the exponential hill.
 
2020-10-30 4:40:52 PM  
LOL, positive cases...that only means you tested positive for something.  It could be the
SARS Covid-2, it could be something else.  Plus, with a 99% SURVIVAL rate it's nothing
to get worked up about, unless you are one of these basement dwelling types afraid of
your own shadow.
 
2020-10-30 4:47:05 PM  

Phony_Soldier: I don't even... I must be super-duper-dumb but if I care about you why would I invite you to a large gathering where you could possibly/probably get sick?


If you invited me, it would tell me exactly how much you don't give a rat's ass about me. I would not feel honored to be invited, if someone asked to attend their wedding or birthday party.
 
2020-10-30 4:47:56 PM  
We've already had threads about the Sweet 16, but this isn't exactly a repeat since TFA only mentions the Sweet 16 in passing; this is more about a wedding and an adult birthday party.

Nothing to add, except the obvious: all of these people suck.
 
2020-10-30 4:51:46 PM  

dbaggins: BobCumbers: I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.

really, I bet 90%of them become symptomatic, 5% of them become ill enough to be hospitalized and 1.2% of them die.   From this group and the current R0 in NY being still roughly 1, in one week we should another 56 infections from this cluster of confirmed infected people.  So again 90% symptomatic and another 5% hospitalized and 1.2% of them dying.  So we're looking at perhaps 6 people in the hospital and maybe 1 or 2 of them dying.

That's assuming you tested and tracked everyone perfectly from these two events and have perfect quarantine.

Or, in two weeks we have about 112 infected people ready to R0 this out again the following week.

If the track/test/quarantine protocol is not about 85% perfectly executed then in week 3 you have about 56 undetected infected individuals in the community.

So, if you stop and trap a cluster of about 50 then you have a high probability of about 1 fatality.   If you don't trap it, then you start your way up the exponential hill.


I'll still go with none of them die. But will there be a follow up article with snappy headline? No.
 
2020-10-30 4:54:09 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 4:56:27 PM  
PSA: Recent COVID-19 studies show that fatal cases of bedhead are now occurring at an alarming rate...

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 5:09:03 PM  

bfh0417: dbaggins: BobCumbers: I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.

really, I bet 90%of them become symptomatic, 5% of them become ill enough to be hospitalized and 1.2% of them die.   From this group and the current R0 in NY being still roughly 1, in one week we should another 56 infections from this cluster of confirmed infected people.  So again 90% symptomatic and another 5% hospitalized and 1.2% of them dying.  So we're looking at perhaps 6 people in the hospital and maybe 1 or 2 of them dying.

That's assuming you tested and tracked everyone perfectly from these two events and have perfect quarantine.

Or, in two weeks we have about 112 infected people ready to R0 this out again the following week.

If the track/test/quarantine protocol is not about 85% perfectly executed then in week 3 you have about 56 undetected infected individuals in the community.

So, if you stop and trap a cluster of about 50 then you have a high probability of about 1 fatality.   If you don't trap it, then you start your way up the exponential hill.

I'll still go with none of them die. But will there be a follow up article with snappy headline? No.


Given a best-case survival rate of 99%, and 56 cases, the probability of none of those 56 dying is about 43%.

1 - (1 - 0.01)56 = 0.43039879752284

So it's about a coin toss whether someone dies or not.  Someone check my math.
 
2020-10-30 5:10:28 PM  
Wow. AOL still has news channels.
 
2020-10-30 5:10:41 PM  
Led, subby.  Not lead.
 
2020-10-30 5:20:03 PM  

bfh0417: I'll still go with none of them die. But will there be a follow up article with snappy headline? No.


*shrug*  some people don't like data.  Some people believe data but have a hard time feeling that bad that it will probably just end up with one or two dead in the good case.

Also, most people that get hospitalized end up with long term chronic health problems, so 5 or 6 chronic illness victims.  But we don't consider those damages.
 
2020-10-30 5:20:04 PM  

p51d007: LOL, positive cases...that only means you tested positive for something.  It could be the
SARS Covid-2, it could be something else.  Plus, with a 99% SURVIVAL rate it's nothing
to get worked up about, unless you are one of these basement dwelling types afraid of
your own shadow.


THEY PAY HOSPITALS MORE when they say they have COVID.  Joe Rogan said so
 
2020-10-30 5:21:32 PM  

Malenfant: Stupid people who refuse to behave responsibly are killing people who want nothing to do with their stupidity.


That would be my neighbors. Last week must have been somebody's birthday party there most have been close to a 100 people in a little back yard. They even had a live mariachi band that played for 3 hours. They even had a mini bus parked on their lawn for all the drunks, so I guess there was some responsibility.

I miss the old neighbors, they did not take up all the parking on the street, whould not shake the walls of our house with consent parties. (They would have them but they where definitely more considerate)
 
2020-10-30 5:29:55 PM  
I know that country club. It's near my old home town.

It has the reputation of being restricted (i.e., no Jews).

My uncle, an avid golfer was urged to try for a membership by a friend that told him the reputation was false.  So he applied.

A year later, he asked the friend about it.  "You're doing well.  You're ninth on the waiting list."

A year later, He asked again.  "You're getting close.  You're 15th on the waiting list."

Maybe they changed since then.  Maybe.
 
2020-10-30 5:31:54 PM  
i'm throwing a party for my daughter being ripe to fark!

how is this still a thing?

how was neil sedaka ever a thing?
 
2020-10-30 6:02:42 PM  
video-images.vice.comView Full Size
 
2020-10-30 6:14:51 PM  
"Out of the 91 attendees, 30 people later tested positive, consisting of 27 guests, two employees, and an outside vendor, Bellone said. Nearly 160 people had to quarantine as a result, he said."

Well, we can look at it as a good source of some statistical evidence at least.  I just finished quarantine after having a home health aid in my apartment for 2 hours.  We were both wearing masks.  I didn't have any symptoms and just got my test results back- negative.  The whole time I was wondering what the statistical odds were of me getting it.  Not a perfect comparison, but taken with this...

"An adult birthday party of about 50 attendees in nearby Bellport, occurred that same day, Bellone said. While it did not violate emergency state health codes, Bellone said the event showcased how quickly the virus could spread with improper social distancing.

More than half of the guests, 26 people, tested positive for the coronavirus and 132 being forced to quarantine, he said."

This starts to give you an idea of the odds.
 
2020-10-30 6:31:13 PM  
And you expect people to do what they can to make sure they can keep themselves and their fellow man safe in this time of disaster. Good Farking Luck! This country is doomed!
 
2020-10-30 7:01:59 PM  
I know an adult who tested positive a week ago, she's having a birthday party tomorrow afternoon for her son.

"But it's outside and we'll all have masks".

There is no facepalm strong enough.

/ no we are not going.
 
2020-10-30 7:45:56 PM  

p51d007: LOL, positive cases...that only means you tested positive for something.  It could be the
SARS Covid-2, it could be something else.  Plus, with a 99% SURVIVAL rate it's nothing
to get worked up about, unless you are one of these basement dwelling types afraid of
your own shadow.


We've called your mother to let her know you're shiatposting on the internet using her laptop again.

We've also told her that your five page report on how PCR testing works and its efficacy is due on the coming Wednesday.
 
2020-10-30 11:30:10 PM  

toraque: bfh0417: dbaggins: BobCumbers: I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.

really, I bet 90%of them become symptomatic, 5% of them become ill enough to be hospitalized and 1.2% of them die.   From this group and the current R0 in NY being still roughly 1, in one week we should another 56 infections from this cluster of confirmed infected people.  So again 90% symptomatic and another 5% hospitalized and 1.2% of them dying.  So we're looking at perhaps 6 people in the hospital and maybe 1 or 2 of them dying.

That's assuming you tested and tracked everyone perfectly from these two events and have perfect quarantine.

Or, in two weeks we have about 112 infected people ready to R0 this out again the following week.

If the track/test/quarantine protocol is not about 85% perfectly executed then in week 3 you have about 56 undetected infected individuals in the community.

So, if you stop and trap a cluster of about 50 then you have a high probability of about 1 fatality.   If you don't trap it, then you start your way up the exponential hill.

I'll still go with none of them die. But will there be a follow up article with snappy headline? No.

Given a best-case survival rate of 99%, and 56 cases, the probability of none of those 56 dying is about 43%.

1 - (1 - 0.01)56 = 0.43039879752284

So it's about a coin toss whether someone dies or not.  Someone check my math.


I think that's right?

P(at least one) = 1 - P(none).

Your assumption is that everyone has the same 1% chance of death though.   As a.party attending demographic, I think that only applies to those under 29.
 
2020-10-30 11:31:13 PM  

Malenfant: Stupid people who refuse to behave responsibly are killing people who want nothing to do with their stupidity.


It's like reverse Darwin.
 
2020-10-30 11:32:29 PM  

NearCanuck: toraque: bfh0417: dbaggins: BobCumbers: I bet all of them die. Scratch that, none of them die or even go to hospital.

really, I bet 90%of them become symptomatic, 5% of them become ill enough to be hospitalized and 1.2% of them die.   From this group and the current R0 in NY being still roughly 1, in one week we should another 56 infections from this cluster of confirmed infected people.  So again 90% symptomatic and another 5% hospitalized and 1.2% of them dying.  So we're looking at perhaps 6 people in the hospital and maybe 1 or 2 of them dying.

That's assuming you tested and tracked everyone perfectly from these two events and have perfect quarantine.

Or, in two weeks we have about 112 infected people ready to R0 this out again the following week.

If the track/test/quarantine protocol is not about 85% perfectly executed then in week 3 you have about 56 undetected infected individuals in the community.

So, if you stop and trap a cluster of about 50 then you have a high probability of about 1 fatality.   If you don't trap it, then you start your way up the exponential hill.

I'll still go with none of them die. But will there be a follow up article with snappy headline? No.

Given a best-case survival rate of 99%, and 56 cases, the probability of none of those 56 dying is about 43%.

1 - (1 - 0.01)56 = 0.43039879752284

So it's about a coin toss whether someone dies or not.  Someone check my math.

I think that's right?

P(at least one) = 1 - P(none).

Your assumption is that everyone has the same 1% chance of death though.   As a.party attending demographic, I think that only applies to those under 29.


I may be thinking of ICU rate.
 
2020-10-31 12:40:55 AM  
"This kind of blatant disregard for the well being of others is not only extremely disappointing, it will not be tolerated,"

he said, tolerating it without punishing a single attendee. I mean props for fining venues, but with the amount they're fining them, it's an acceptable cost of doing business. If 1 in 200 events becomes a superspreader and gets a $20,000 fine, that just means venues need to tack on a $100 pandemic surcharge. Hand out some misdemeanors with one month home confinement and you might change peoples' behavior, 100 partiers at a time.
 
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