Social Justice Warlock: Okay, okay. Honest question here.

I'll preface it by pointing out I'm not American (I'm your neighbor up north), and am left of even most Canadians. I'm for legalizing all drugs, socialized care, universal income, all that stuff. So I'm not here to gaslight anyone or pretend anyone's vote wouldn't matter...

But, having expressed my "credentials" if you will, I can't help but wonder, could there be something nefarious going on? *Could* the votes be manipulated or packed?

I realize and am well aware that no voter fraud on any serious reasonable scale has ever been credibly demonstrated. And I understand (and am thankful for) the great desire of many to oust the orange plague rat  currently in the White House. But these numbers are just out of this world.

More people voting before the 3rd than voted all together in 2016? That's more than impressive, it's almost suspect. I mean, if the numbers (including those on November 3rd) bear this out (meaning total rallies are such that more than 65% of Texas voted), I'll be reassured... but for the moment, I'm kinda worried.

I want this to be real. I want Texas to go blue, the Senate to have a Super Majority of Dems, the numbers to be so overwhelming that Republicans everywhere see no other out other than denouncing Trumpism, and all who coddled it.

I want all of that. I'm even for a reform of your SC to mitigate the current bad faith packing of the courts.

But current polls, both at a state level (in Texas and other states) and nationally, although they give Biden a comfortable lead, don't seem to correspond to what is being seen at voting places (in terms of lines, and enthusiasm).

Anyway. Just wanted people in Texas (and other tossup states) to reassure me, I suppose.

/VOTE. All of you. I'm not sure what's going on but that's not meant to play on fears that you shouldn't vote. Do it.
//only if you're voting blue, though (otherwise you're a bad human and you should feel bad)

Because of our electoral college most Americans presidential votes are essentially worthless. In a normal year non competitive states such as texas have voting rates at or below 50%. That leaves a hell of a lot of room for raising the turnout if things are controversial or high profile. 2020 has been the most contentious and high profile election of my life by a huge margin. It's been essentially the only news item in america since the start of August. Essentially everyone who has any following is urging people to vote. The people who hate politics have an opinion this year. You can see yourself the expanded voting is real because you can see the lines at polling places long before the final day. People are irate on both sides and they all know the county is at stake here. Anyone who cared enough to vote in 2016 is voting again this year, almost anyone who cares enough to ever turn on any media of any kind has been urged to vote in 2020. I'm pretty sure there are hermits in off grid cabins in the swamps that are voting this year.

TXprof: Here's the big question in Texas:  Is there actually some large population of voters out there in Texas who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 (when he was running against HRC, who was evil incarnate) that have decided to vote this time?  It's pretty hard for me to believe that there are large numbers of Trump voters who sat on the sidelines in '16 and are energized now.

YES! Texas actually is a very very low turnout state. Especially among latinos. The perception of it being deep red tends to make it not feel urgent to vote, and there is a heaping of voter suppression too, Texas is I believe the hardest state to vote in. You have to register well ahead of time to be eligible. The furor around this years election made a lot of people that wouldn't otherwise have been following closely enough to know when to get their paperwork in get off their asses and register. In 2016 less than 50% of the voting age pop voted, only 60% of registered voters cast a ballot. 8.5m total in 2016.

2020 with a week to go has recorded the same number. That's real real farking interesting when you consider the stats from other states saying that early voters have skewed really heavily Dem. If Texan Republicans are waiting for Nov 3 in significant numbers then our vote total is going to blow 2016 out of the water which is going to have a lot of Republicans sweating. They know those extra votes aren't mostly coming from old white people. Now there are plenty of young country kids who are voting this year for trump that probably didn't bother to cast a ballot in 2016 but there are also a shiatload of latino, black, and urban white texans that didn't vote in 2016 but are hoping to stick it to the man by voting blue this year.