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(The New York Times)   When we can expect state election results for each state. TL;DR: if it comes down to Pennsylvania or Georgia expect another Florida circa 2000 situation   (nytimes.com) divider line
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1193 clicks; posted to Politics » on 28 Oct 2020 at 10:27 AM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-10-28 9:28:49 AM  
Great. Just great.

Two states full of ... (Insert historically proven, anecdotally backed up, and carved in farking stone bias here) jerks and jagoffs.
 
2020-10-28 9:29:39 AM  
This is one of the reasons why I hope Florida get called for Biden quickly on election day.

Once Florida is called for Biden, PA will only be the difference between a comfortable Biden win and a large Biden win.
 
2020-10-28 9:36:04 AM  
For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-28 9:45:10 AM  
Texas... win one for Ann Richards! I know you can do it.
 
2020-10-28 9:50:19 AM  

Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]


That assumes a free and fair election with no shenanigans. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be 100% confident about that.
 
2020-10-28 9:56:17 AM  

Gubbo: Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]

That assumes a free and fair election with no shenanigans. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be 100% confident about that.


I never assume that and I don't advocate 100% confidence in much of anything, but I did want to throw out some reality grounded analysis before we jump right into Pete Silvia territory, which I also engage in. :/
 
2020-10-28 10:05:51 AM  
PA ain't voting for Trump again.  That's a fact.  In 2016, there were no Clinton signs.  As in zero.  As in none.  As in buppkiss.

There are a glorious number of Biden signs sprouting up.

And PA does not have a GOP Lieutenant Governor to fiddle with the tallies.
 
2020-10-28 10:11:51 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Texas... win one for Ann Richards! I know you can do it.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-28 10:14:30 AM  
Here's another simulator you can play around with (it lets you run it both with states randomly being called, and also weighed by when their polls close):
https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulat​i​on/

Michigan, Minnesota (really?) and Pennsylvania are currently coming out as the top bellwether states, but there isn't a big falloff until between positions 11 and 12.

As for hitting 270, Florida and Pennsylvania are the clear tipping points.
 
2020-10-28 10:17:30 AM  
The article is very infromative. It tells me that I need to buy more vodak.
 
2020-10-28 10:29:12 AM  
No one will ever convince me that that wasn't a stolen election. But here we are 20 years later and nothing has changed.
 
2020-10-28 10:29:56 AM  
Can we get a TL;DR for every paywall article?
 
2020-10-28 10:30:50 AM  
I fully expect this to end up in court. Many courts. And if it goes to SCOTUS?

My hopes that Biden will win the election are modest but solid.

My hopes that Biden will be the next president, on the other hand, are sketchy at best.
 
2020-10-28 10:31:03 AM  
I'm going to be keeping a close eye on North Carolina from the moment that their polls close. If Biden wins NC his path is crystal clear. Win NC then win WI/MI/MN.

If does that it's over. He won't need PA or FL or AZ, they'll just be gravy.
 
2020-10-28 10:31:14 AM  
Any election close enough to be stolen will be.  This election is already being ratfarked in ways and levels that we've seen in the passed but we're so far into "No farks given" that it's not even the fig leaf to hide behind we normally see, or saw in 2000. Like all the other crimes, it's just out in the open because only the poors see the enforcement end of the rule of law.
 
2020-10-28 10:31:16 AM  
It absolutely baffles me that its close at all.

We are so farked as a country.
 
2020-10-28 10:31:26 AM  
Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.
 
2020-10-28 10:33:19 AM  
Yeah I'm expecting that anyway
 
2020-10-28 10:34:32 AM  

Opacity: Here's another simulator you can play around with (it lets you run it both with states randomly being called, and also weighed by when their polls close):
https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulati​on/

Michigan, Minnesota (really?) and Pennsylvania are currently coming out as the top bellwether states, but there isn't a big falloff until between positions 11 and 12.

As for hitting 270, Florida and Pennsylvania are the clear tipping points.


I'd be shocked if Trump won Michigan.

Whitmer's approval ratings are still above 50% and Trump keeps attacking her anyway.
 
2020-10-28 10:34:59 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: PA ain't voting for Trump again.  That's a fact.  In 2016, there were no Clinton signs.  As in zero.  As in none.  As in buppkiss.

There are a glorious number of Biden signs sprouting up.

And PA does not have a GOP Lieutenant Governor to fiddle with the tallies.


I wish I shared your confidence. I'm in Bucks County, a bellwether county in a swing state. I see a TON of Trump Pence signs, and I live in an "educated" area. I see homemade signs. The cult love runs strong. 

This independent votes blue on election day...
 
2020-10-28 10:35:13 AM  
I have no hope Biden will win until I see the final results.
2020 is a one mean muthaf*cka.
 
2020-10-28 10:35:38 AM  

ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.


You know we're all going to be glued to the farking screen waiting for results on the hour every hour until the last poll is closed, and then we're going to be consuming other political media until we pass out
 
2020-10-28 10:35:47 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: PA ain't voting for Trump again.  That's a fact.  In 2016, there were no Clinton signs.  As in zero.  As in none.  As in buppkiss.

There are a glorious number of Biden signs sprouting up.

And PA does not have a GOP Lieutenant Governor to fiddle with the tallies.


Yeah, that's the big thing.  Biden can get to 270 without any far-right Republican governors or sec of states putting their fingers on the scales.
 
2020-10-28 10:36:29 AM  

Dimensio: The article is very infromative. It tells me that I need to buy more vodak.


I'm thinking of moving up to Everclear and indulging my curiosity about Fentanyl.   What do I have to lose at this point?  Might as well feel some kind of pleasure before the fascist paramilitary groups start shooting people for not wanting others to go broke from medical bills.
 
2020-10-28 10:36:47 AM  

Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]


editions.lib.umn.eduView Full Size
 
2020-10-28 10:36:50 AM  

ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.


The Supreme Court is poised to rule 6-3 that the vote counting must be completed as soon as it shows Trump ahead.
 
2020-10-28 10:37:49 AM  

LandOfChocolate: It absolutely baffles me that its close at all.

We are so farked as a country.


The fact that it is close tells you everything you need to know about America and our actual values and character.
 
2020-10-28 10:38:04 AM  
Florida is already tightening, and will probably end up a toss-up on the eve of the election. Hopefully, Florida won't end up the tipping point in the election because DeSantis and his ilk are Trump-sucking criminals that will absolutely f*ck with the vote totals.
 
2020-10-28 10:38:12 AM  

Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]


Speaking of 538, Trump just dropped down to 11% chance to win.  Been bouncing between 12 and 13% for the past two weeks.  For past reference, 6 days before the 2016 election, Trump had a 32.2% chance, and was going up (before falling down to 28.6% on election day itself)
 
2020-10-28 10:38:21 AM  

Dimensio: The article is very infromative. It tells me that I need to buy more vodak.


You only see that in this article? Fark, man, everything I see tells me to buy vodak.

Yard banners? Vodak.
Neon signs? Vodak.
TV ads? Vodak.
Emails? Very vodak.
Trees? More vodak.
Clouds? All the vodaks.

Hell, sometimes I think the cat asks me for vodak instead of kibble.
 
2020-10-28 10:38:29 AM  

Mrtraveler01: Opacity: Here's another simulator you can play around with (it lets you run it both with states randomly being called, and also weighed by when their polls close):
https://www.270towin.com/2020-simulati​on/

Michigan, Minnesota (really?) and Pennsylvania are currently coming out as the top bellwether states, but there isn't a big falloff until between positions 11 and 12.

As for hitting 270, Florida and Pennsylvania are the clear tipping points.

I'd be shocked if Trump won Michigan.

Whitmer's approval ratings are still above 50% and Trump keeps attacking her anyway.


Obviously Whitmer is a dictator like Saddam Hussein or Kim Jong-Un. She is only popular because the population is too terrified to admit their real feelings. LIBERATE MICHIGAN.

Also, Trumpers do not know anyone who approves of Governor Whitmer so obviously the approval rating is a lie.
 
2020-10-28 10:38:38 AM  

LandOfChocolate: It absolutely baffles me that its close at all.

We are so farked as a country.


That's what's really disheartening.  Even if Trump loses and loses big, there are tens of millions of people who are either too dumb to realize they're being lied to on a daily basis, or (bigger problem) don't care that they're being lied to and support what the president is actually doing.
 
2020-10-28 10:38:43 AM  

bloobeary: This is one of the reasons why I hope Florida get called for Biden quickly on election day.

Once Florida is called for Biden, PA will only be the difference between a comfortable Biden win and a large Biden win.


How the fark would Florida be called quickly?
 
2020-10-28 10:39:35 AM  
According to 538 (I know, I know...) the first states to watch look to me to be Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio.  All three are in the first block to close their polling, and hopefully will report early in the evening.  Unless the Cheeto sweeps all three, he's pretty likely to have a very bad night.
 
2020-10-28 10:40:15 AM  

Professor_Doctor: Gubbo: Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]

That assumes a free and fair election with no shenanigans. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be 100% confident about that.

I never assume that and I don't advocate 100% confidence in much of anything, but I did want to throw out some reality grounded analysis before we jump right into Pete Silvia territory, which I also engage in. :/


It's Pepe Silvia! You've been after the wrong guy!
 
2020-10-28 10:40:21 AM  
If Georgia is close enough that it can't be called on Election Night, then Trump is already farked.
 
2020-10-28 10:40:43 AM  

aremmes: Dimensio: The article is very infromative. It tells me that I need to buy more vodak.

You only see that in this article? Fark, man, everything I see tells me to buy vodak.

Yard banners? Vodak.
Neon signs? Vodak.
TV ads? Vodak.
Emails? Very vodak.
Trees? More vodak.
Clouds? All the vodaks.

Hell, sometimes I think the cat asks me for vodak instead of kibble.


Odd. The hallucinations of the cat asking me for vodak usually don't kick in until I've been out of vodak for at least twenty-four hours.
 
2020-10-28 10:41:28 AM  

Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image image 337x750]


Fark user imageView Full Size


I looked back at the forecast from the day of the election in 2016.  I don't think it looks any different.

The only thing that looks different is that the polls were starting to get a little tighter two weeks out before the election.  This year, they are holding steady.

Anyway, I probably won't be resting easy until Biden is sitting at his new desk in the Oval Office while the old one is being encased in steel, and being prepared to be burying in the desert with a bunch of other contaminated materials.
 
2020-10-28 10:42:02 AM  

Opacity: Minnesota (really?)


Yes, really!  Minnesota has a lot of overt racists. Trump stokes their fears.  Which makes them even more overt.  They are afraid that 'those people' (for each individual's personal value of those) will ruin their lives.  Trump will save them.  Most of these folks have never met one of those and never want to.  Because they already know how horrible they are.  And Trump tells them how horrible they are.  So, vote for Trump.
 
2020-10-28 10:42:18 AM  

Dimensio: ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.

The Supreme Court is poised to rule 6-3 that the vote counting must be completed as soon as it shows Trump ahead.


Kavanaugh in 2000: Keep counting the votes through Thanksgiving!

Kavanaugh in 2020: We must stop counting the votes at the conclusion of Microneasean Independence Day.
 
2020-10-28 10:42:28 AM  

Dimensio: ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.

The Supreme Court is poised to rule 6-3 that the vote counting must be completed as soon as it shows Trump ahead.


Vote accepting, not vote counting.

Bush v. Gore wasn't decided until after the 2020 vote certification date, since by law that's how long states have to return their final results.

So this year, no SCOTUS quit counting order can come down until December 7 or 8 (iirc).

Anything until then is just provisional, so don't fret election night results unless one candidate wins by more than the outstanding vote count in enough states to win without a doubt.

That likely isn't happening.
 
2020-10-28 10:42:52 AM  

SavageWombat: According to 538 (I know, I know...) the first states to watch look to me to be Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio.  All three are in the first block to close their polling, and hopefully will report early in the evening.  Unless the Cheeto sweeps all three, he's pretty likely to have a very bad night.


Problem is, you know Trump is going to sweep all three.  Because this is 2020, and we're a nation of savagely cruel and selfish monsters.
 
2020-10-28 10:43:50 AM  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: bloobeary: This is one of the reasons why I hope Florida get called for Biden quickly on election day.

Once Florida is called for Biden, PA will only be the difference between a comfortable Biden win and a large Biden win.

How the fark would Florida be called quickly?


NYTimes had a good article on which states count ahead of time and which don't, laying out the states that (in theory) will have quick answers and which won't.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona are the important states that should (emphasis on should) have a quick answer. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the most important states that should take a long time.

If Florida's close and/or farked-with, this may be different. But on paper, Florida could be called pretty early. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the margin of victory there is 1-3%, which is enough to allow a quick decision.
 
2020-10-28 10:44:53 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: PA ain't voting for Trump again.  That's a fact.  In 2016, there were no Clinton signs.  As in zero.  As in none.  As in buppkiss.

There are a glorious number of Biden signs sprouting up.

And PA does not have a GOP Lieutenant Governor to fiddle with the tallies.


This.  PA here.  There's an Army/Navy store a few blocks from my apartment that has a couple of Biden/Harris signs out front. I have no clue if they're the ones who put them there but they sure as shiat don't mind them being displayed.  That makes me smile.
 
2020-10-28 10:46:02 AM  

GoldSpider: LandOfChocolate: It absolutely baffles me that its close at all.

We are so farked as a country.

That's what's really disheartening.  Even if Trump loses and loses big, there are tens of millions of people who are either too dumb to realize they're being lied to on a daily basis, or (bigger problem) don't care that they're being lied to and support what the president is actually doing.


It is also why the nation is ultimately doomed. The propaganda outlets supporting Trump are not going to fall silent even if Joe Biden wins on November 3. They are currently pushing the rhetoric that Trump is Making America Great Again while Democrats are racist, socialist, Marxist fascists who support the Antifa BLM movement that is at this very moment burning liberal cities to the ground and that will soon come for them and their families. If Biden takes office the rhetoric will continue but now the danger will be even more imminent because the government will now be organizing and directing those mobs of anarchists. Come the midterms and then then next Presidential election after that the viewers of Fox News and OANN will lining up to vote in the next wave of right-wing conservatives who are ready to push back against that coming liberal agenda and once again our nation's future will be in the balance, with more sane voice relying upon low-information undecideds and hard-to-motivate liberals who only come out to vote when they feel sufficiently inspired.

Things will not calm down. They will in fact calm up.
 
2020-10-28 10:46:45 AM  

Dafatone: Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: bloobeary: This is one of the reasons why I hope Florida get called for Biden quickly on election day.

Once Florida is called for Biden, PA will only be the difference between a comfortable Biden win and a large Biden win.

How the fark would Florida be called quickly?

NYTimes had a good article on which states count ahead of time and which don't, laying out the states that (in theory) will have quick answers and which won't.

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona are the important states that should (emphasis on should) have a quick answer. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the most important states that should take a long time.

If Florida's close and/or farked-with, this may be different. But on paper, Florida could be called pretty early. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the margin of victory there is 1-3%, which is enough to allow a quick decision.


Making this comment in a thread on the farking article I referencemight be peak DNRTFA fark.
 
2020-10-28 10:47:42 AM  

ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Dimensio: ISmartAllMyOwnPosts: Votes don't have to be finalized until the first week in December.  I wouldn't stay up on election night this go round.

The Supreme Court is poised to rule 6-3 that the vote counting must be completed as soon as it shows Trump ahead.

Vote accepting, not vote counting.

Bush v. Gore wasn't decided until after the 2020 vote certification date, since by law that's how long states have to return their final results.

So this year, no SCOTUS quit counting order can come down until December 7 or 8 (iirc).

Anything until then is just provisional, so don't fret election night results unless one candidate wins by more than the outstanding vote count in enough states to win without a doubt.

That likely isn't happening.


They have already ruled on vote accepting. Kavanaugh's tortured reasoning can easily translate into a new ruling allowing the court to impose by judicial fiat any arbitrary vote counting deadline that they want.
 
2020-10-28 10:48:38 AM  
Georgia doesn't have that many Chads. If Georgia, and every other State, went back to the scantron it would be much faster, and allow for hack proof recounts, as Georgia will more than likely have prior to two runoffs in January.


/Yes, I knew a Chad here in Georgia, and he is a Derper.
//
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-28 10:48:40 AM  

Gubbo: Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]

That assumes a free and fair election with no shenanigans. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be 100% confident about that.


I am heartened that the Democrats have been doing a really job of driving the early vote. Hopefully Biden has banked so many early votes that the Election Day voting by Trump supporters won't be enough to close the gap.
 
2020-10-28 10:49:16 AM  

LrdPhoenix: Professor_Doctor: For a little bit of context, if we are believing in math and polls today, which I know is a sometimes thing:

On 538, the tipping point state is PA. Biden is hovering around 85%. The next state after that is Nevada at 90% giving Biden a "Clearly Favored" to win. Michigan is 94% or so.

On Trump's side, past the tipping point state, the first state to reach 90%, to be equivalent with Nevada in terms of secure points, is S. Carolina.

Biden has a better chance of winning Alaska than Trump does of winning PA. So that's a shiat-ton of coin flips (weighted one way or the other, admittedly, but not favoring Trump overall) that would have to go Trump's way for it to hinge on GA or PA.

[Fark user image 337x750]

Speaking of 538, Trump just dropped down to 11% chance to win.  Been bouncing between 12 and 13% for the past two weeks.  For past reference, 6 days before the 2016 election, Trump had a 32.2% chance, and was going up (before falling down to 28.6% on election day itself)


They have the race tightening in a lot of swing states, but as the countdown progresses they reduce the error bars as they figure there's less potential for changes in opinion with less time left on the clock.
 
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