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(The Hill)   With one week left to go, Texas is upgraded to "tossup"   (thehill.com) divider line
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1930 clicks; posted to Politics » on 27 Oct 2020 at 5:22 PM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-10-27 4:01:34 PM  
Original Tweet:

 
2020-10-27 4:22:29 PM  
Vote.
 
2020-10-27 4:27:03 PM  
I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.
 
2020-10-27 4:27:47 PM  
i3.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 4:28:40 PM  
Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.
 
2020-10-27 4:29:45 PM  
memegenerator.netView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 4:31:45 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


THIS.  This right here.

Pay no more attention to polls, except as entertainment.  Vote your conscience.
 
2020-10-27 4:31:57 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


If you recall, Trump's 2016 victory hinged on new voters (not 18 years old, per se, just people who haven't normally voted).

Texas' shift is also largely driven by new voters.  The hope is that, mixed with the more apathetic Republicans driving down GOP votes, will be enough.

/offer also applies in Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, etc.
 
2020-10-27 4:37:11 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


To add, here are the polls for Texas, courtesy 538, up to about a week old:

Biden +1  (Data for Progress, B- grade)
Trump +4 (Siena College, A+)
Trump +2 (Survey Monkey, D-)
Trump +5 (YouGov, B)
Biden +3 (U of Texas, B/C)
Biden +1 (Morning Consult, B/C)
Tied (Quinnipiac B+)
Biden +1 (Data for Progress, B-)
 
2020-10-27 4:39:27 PM  
Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!
 
2020-10-27 4:39:58 PM  

OldRod: I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.


They'll have to spend resources defending it next time. Like Hitler keeping 30 divisions in Norway while the Allies were invading France.
 
2020-10-27 4:44:15 PM  

ArkPanda: OldRod: I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.

They'll have to spend resources defending it next time. Like Hitler keeping 30 divisions in Norway while the Allies were invading France.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 4:44:23 PM  
I have already voted (in Missouri), but the idea of a blue Texas... -insert Archer jokes here-
 
2020-10-27 4:56:44 PM  
Like everyone here, I also want Trump gone.

But down-ballot, I also want Cornyn the f*ck out and (probably more than Trump and Cornyn) I want my state rep, Briscoe Cain, exiled to the f*cking moon.
 
2020-10-27 5:05:24 PM  

bloobeary: Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!


And the Senate seat would be amazing.
 
2020-10-27 5:09:01 PM  

Shostie: Like everyone here, I also want Trump gone.

But down-ballot, I also want Cornyn the f*ck out and (probably more than Trump and Cornyn) I want my state rep, Briscoe Cain, exiled to the f*cking moon.


My Rep is Kevin farking McCarthy, so I definitely feel you.
 
2020-10-27 5:10:15 PM  

Gubbo: bloobeary: Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!

And the Senate seat would be amazing.


If the blue wave makes it all the way to the textbook selection committee, this country might just get back on track.
 
2020-10-27 5:12:57 PM  

Gubbo: bloobeary: Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!

And the Senate seat would be amazing.


For Cornyn to lose would take an epic Blue Wave and likely mean the Dems won..... 7-10 seats, so I won't get my hopes up but I might daydream about that scenario from time to time as the week goes on.

/lose Alabama, gain AZ and CO almost for sure.  Maine, Iowa, and NC seem likely Dem, so that's net +4 and gives us a 51/49 Dem Senate.
//a coat tail election would give the Dems a shot at.... Montana, 1 Georgia seat, Kansas, and South Carolina
/// if its big enough for Cornyn to win, that would give the Dems a shot at the 2nd GA seat and Alaska, too, giving us a shot at a 60/40 Senate, which is more or less unthinkable.  538 gives that scenario a 0.2% chance
 
2020-10-27 5:13:02 PM  
When you look into polling methodology, one thing they do is to bias the people they call based on their history of voting. You can look up records that indicate that a registered voter actually either submitted a mail in ballot or showed up at the polls and had their name marked as having voted.

This will systematically undercount people who sat out recent elections but are motivated to vote this time.

The big question is, are there more disaffected people who have been inspired by Trump and will vote this year but did not vote in prior years, or are there more disaffected voters who have been horrified by Trump and will vote this year to get rid of him but didn't vote in prior years.

Both types exist, but I think there are many more of the latter. That could provide a systematic bias in the polls to undercount support for Biden. I'm cautiously optimistic and hope that is part of the record numbers in early voting.
 
2020-10-27 5:14:45 PM  

incendi: Gubbo: bloobeary: Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!

And the Senate seat would be amazing.

If the blue wave makes it all the way to the textbook selection committee, this country might just get back on track.


THIS.
 
2020-10-27 5:15:44 PM  

OldRod: I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.


Trump is in MI today, hoping he can keep it
I believe Biden is make stops in TX

Biden also appears to be spending some time trying to flip the Senate blue... Is Cornyn looking a bit shaky in TX (just wondering)?
 
2020-10-27 5:18:02 PM  

Shostie: Like everyone here, I also want Trump gone.

But down-ballot, I also want Cornyn the f*ck out and (probably more than Trump and Cornyn) I want my state rep, Briscoe Cain, exiled to the f*cking moon.


Briscoe Cain is the most Texas name I've heard today.
 
2020-10-27 5:18:14 PM  

weddingsinger: Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.

To add, here are the polls for Texas, courtesy 538, up to about a week old:

Biden +1  (Data for Progress, B- grade)
Trump +4 (Siena College, A+)
Trump +2 (Survey Monkey, D-)
Trump +5 (YouGov, B)
Biden +3 (U of Texas, B/C)
Biden +1 (Morning Consult, B/C)
Tied (Quinnipiac B+)
Biden +1 (Data for Progress, B-)


So, kinda looks like a tossup to me. Not sure where people are getting this "one poll" thing.
 
2020-10-27 5:19:17 PM  

neglogon: OldRod: I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.

Trump is in MI today, hoping he can keep it
I believe Biden is make stops in TX

Biden also appears to be spending some time trying to flip the Senate blue... Is Cornyn looking a bit shaky in TX (just wondering)?


Biden is hitting Georgia (in play for both the Presidential race and two senate seats) while Kamala will be in Texas this week.

Cornyn seems to be doing fine (+4 to +10 in most polling) so it would take an enormous drive of new Dem voters and a lot of GOP apathy for him to lose his seat.
 
2020-10-27 5:19:56 PM  

weddingsinger: Gubbo: bloobeary: Biden doesn't need Texas to win.
But it would be an earth-shattering F*CK YOU to the GOP.
C'mon blue wave!

And the Senate seat would be amazing.

For Cornyn to lose would take an epic Blue Wave and likely mean the Dems won..... 7-10 seats, so I won't get my hopes up but I might daydream about that scenario from time to time as the week goes on.

/lose Alabama, gain AZ and CO almost for sure.  Maine, Iowa, and NC seem likely Dem, so that's net +4 and gives us a 51/49 Dem Senate.
//a coat tail election would give the Dems a shot at.... Montana, 1 Georgia seat, Kansas, and South Carolina
/// if its big enough for Cornyn to win, that would give the Dems a shot at the 2nd GA seat and Alaska, too, giving us a shot at a 60/40 Senate, which is more or less unthinkable.  538 gives that scenario a 0.2% chance


I know it is the longest of long shots. But I really dislike Cornyn, and really like MJ Hegar.

/and I despise that the GOP attacked her for having tattoos
//tattoos which cover up the scarring she suffered when her helicopter was shot down
 
2020-10-27 5:25:14 PM  
Amazing to see Texas's turnout soar now that it's a presidential swing state.

Here's an idea... what if we made the votes of people in every state matter for the presidential race?

- Andrew Prokop (@awprokop) October 27, 2020
 
2020-10-27 5:26:24 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 5:27:09 PM  
 
2020-10-27 5:28:42 PM  
Texas has been tossed up so many times in recent months it reminds me of the video of the bear on the trampoline.
 
2020-10-27 5:29:58 PM  
538 gives Biden a 33% chance of winning Texas. That's toss-up territory.
 
2020-10-27 5:31:21 PM  

Walker: But yesterday the Fark hive mind was saying "Don't spend any money in Texas Biden!"
Change your mind today hive mind?

https://www.fark.com/comments/10998108​/Biden-campaign-unwilling-to-put-$10-m​illion-down-to-flip-Texas-blue-also-Bi​den-unwilling-to-boogieboard-into-a-Wh​ataburger-at-3am


So, which commenters from that thread are in this thread, hm?
 
2020-10-27 5:31:27 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 5:31:57 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


True.  However, it was the polls in South Carolina showing that Linds was losing that caused the GOP to start spending money there.

Money that they then don't have to spend in an emergency effort in Texas.
 
2020-10-27 5:31:59 PM  
Bloomberg is putting $10 million into Texas and Florida (split between them, I think) for this week.

FINALLY he's spending some money.
 
2020-10-27 5:32:06 PM  
I'm not getting my hopes up, but Beto was interviewed somewhere and said that Dems tend to outperform polling in TX. Like he was down like 9 points in the polls but only lost to the zodiac killer by 2.5%.
 
2020-10-27 5:32:12 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: Amazing to see Texas's turnout soar now that it's a presidential swing state.

Here's an idea... what if we made the votes of people in every state matter for the presidential race?
- Andrew Prokop (@awprokop) October 27, 2020


Madness. Why, if you did that Presidents would only campaign in places where there are people.
 
2020-10-27 5:32:29 PM  

Shostie: Like everyone here, I also want Trump gone.

But down-ballot, I also want Cornyn the f*ck out and (probably more than Trump and Cornyn) I want my state rep, Briscoe Cain, exiled to the f*cking moon.


I see the Briscoe Cain signs all over the place.

A more Texas name there couldn't be, unless that other name was Steer Cowpuncher.
 
2020-10-27 5:32:44 PM  

weddingsinger: neglogon: OldRod: I don't think it'll go blue this year (I'd love to be surprised!), but it's getting closer all the time.

Trump is in MI today, hoping he can keep it
I believe Biden is make stops in TX

Biden also appears to be spending some time trying to flip the Senate blue... Is Cornyn looking a bit shaky in TX (just wondering)?

Biden is hitting Georgia (in play for both the Presidential race and two senate seats) while Kamala will be in Texas this week.

Cornyn seems to be doing fine (+4 to +10 in most polling) so it would take an enormous drive of new Dem voters and a lot of GOP apathy for him to lose his seat.


It's pretty unlikely. Cornyn is doing better than trump in Texas (and for a sign on how close it's getting cornyn just started claiming that he has always been secretly opposed to trump)

I voted for hegar but I just don't think she has enough time left to get out and split the trump supporters off from voting cornyn. We can hope but I wouldn't put money on it.
 
2020-10-27 5:33:26 PM  

fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image 250x250]


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-27 5:33:29 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


Yeah I checked today and it looks like Trump is in the lead again. However yesterday it was Biden. So who knows.

I guess that's why it is a toss up now.
 
2020-10-27 5:33:40 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size



/For the record, Tossup Bot declares everything is a tossup
 
2020-10-27 5:34:20 PM  

Captain_Sunshine: Bloomberg is putting $10 million into Texas and Florida (split between them, I think) for this week.

FINALLY he's spending some money.


Not to attack Bloomberg (ok it is totally an attack) but that is pocket change to him.

/at the same time I don't approve of billionaires using their money to unduly influence elections
//but no point fighting a battle and not taking advantage of everything you can
 
2020-10-27 5:34:31 PM  
all of my college friends are voting or have voted for Biden.  My sister, and brother in-law and two of their daughters are voting for Biden.  we all went to conservative TAMU

the shift is real.  I just hope its big enough.
 
2020-10-27 5:34:57 PM  

fragMasterFlash: [Fark user image image 250x250]


I really need to go there the next time I'm in Austin.
 
2020-10-27 5:35:19 PM  

neglogon: Trump is in MI today, hoping he can keep it


Not likely unless he stops attacking Whitmer.
 
2020-10-27 5:35:36 PM  

Shostie: Like everyone here, I also want Trump gone.

But down-ballot, I also want Cornyn the f*ck out and (probably more than Trump and Cornyn) I want my state rep, Briscoe Cain, exiled to the f*cking moon.


I think there is a possibility that Texas will go for Biden, but only because there are a lot of moderate Republicans who are sick of Trump's shiat. They will not likely have any problems voting for Cornyn.
 
ENS
2020-10-27 5:36:50 PM  
I went to bed last night about 82% convinced that the Supreme Court will intervene to any extent necessary to steal this for Trump, so I'm not exactly Mr. optimist....but the reports of insane levels of turnout in Texas (and vodka) leave me with just enough hope to think something good might actually happen.
 
2020-10-27 5:37:25 PM  
A few factoids for your consideration:

1.  Probably the most Democratic-voting city in Texas is El Paso, which has about 70% Dems compared to about 25% Republicans.

2.  Because of a huge surge in COVID cases, El Paso has been put  on lockdown over the last couple of days, with everything but essential businesses closed and evening curfews imposed, and with hospital occupancy now exceeding capacity.

3.  Texas allows very little mail voting or early voting, so most people have to show up to the polls on November 3 to vote.

4.  Voter turnout on Election Day in El Paso County is undoubtedly (and understandably) going to be significantly suppressed by all of this.

I'm no Nate Silver, but I would have to think that one of the biggest Democratic strongholds in the state being on lockdown on Election Day, with no opportunity to vote early or vote by mail, would have to put a serious dent in any chances Biden might have, however remote, of carrying Texas.
 
2020-10-27 5:38:39 PM  

ENS: I went to bed last night about 82% convinced that the Supreme Court will intervene to any extent necessary to steal this for Trump, so I'm not exactly Mr. optimist....but the reports of insane levels of turnout in Texas (and vodka) leave me with just enough hope to think something good might actually happen.


It has to be phrased as an issue for the judiciary, and then get to the Supreme Court. Roberts can't just call a press conference and hereby declare.
 
2020-10-27 5:39:24 PM  

Badmoodman: Ehh, I've seen different polls where Trump is ahead 3-5 points. Hanging your hopes on any poll now is a fool's errand.


This. You want it to happen Texas Farkers? Help get people to the polls in numbers that end up putting the fear of God in Rethuglicans. Why? You turn it blue this year, then follow up in 2022, and they will be shiatting bricks. Texas standing a better than even chance of going blue means they almost never win another presidency.
 
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