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(CNBC)   Experts warning of impending exponential spread of Covid across US. Or in terms the US can grasp, it gonna get real bad, yo   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Obvious  
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3557 clicks; posted to Main » and Politics » on 26 Oct 2020 at 10:55 AM (12 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-10-26 11:16:04 AM  

CarnySaur: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

So it looks like we're going to be spiking like that imminently, followed by yet another wave that they didn't get.  Great.


Note that his graph states cases by number - and there are 443 million people in the EU.
 
2020-10-26 11:16:05 AM  

Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...


Comparing one country with a centralized "do nothing" response vs multiple countries in an economic union of multiple independent nations each with their own individual responses. If only there was an appropriate food metaphor, something about apples and oranges...
 
2020-10-26 11:16:06 AM  

Jack Sabbath: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

Well, that's their second wave, which was expected.  We're still on our first, and the inevitable second wave is going to pile right on top of it, especially with Dotard holding his superspreader rallies and millions of Americans being steadfast in their stupidity.

Just in time for the holidays, family members are gonna die!


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:16:07 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:17:13 AM  
Isn't all spread exponential by definition? That's kind of how epidemiology works.

/math nerd
 
2020-10-26 11:17:20 AM  

Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...


27 nations with a combined population of 446M have 120K cases (27 per 100,000), while the US has a population of 328M and has 60K (18.3 per 100,000).

ON OCT 22.

Bless your heart, you red-headed stepchild.  Let's revisit that graph in 2 weeks, shall we?
 
2020-10-26 11:17:42 AM  

dkulprit: It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....


EU has 513 million (if you count the UK still.) The USA has 330 million. Not quite 'twice.'

SurelyShirley: The EU is testing more.


Compared to March, yes. The UK has one of the highest excess deaths in the world, for instance, but even at the March peak they were recording extremely small numbers because they couldn't test more than a few thousand people a day. Even now there are hours-long queues to get tests around the country. The USA is still testing many more people per capita AFAIK.
 
2020-10-26 11:18:13 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: Ambivalence: And the federally government has officially declared it has no interest in stopping it.

Trump is tired of COVID.  It simply does not respond to threats or intimidation or harsh language.  So there's simply no way to fight it.  You understand how it is.  They tried nothing, and they're out of ideas.


He still has a few tricks left, like suing it or refusing to pay.

You know what, never mind.  I can see it now: "CMS Announces It Will No Longer Reimburse Providers And Facilities For Testing And Treatment Of COVID-19. Stonks Soar On News."
 
2020-10-26 11:18:34 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: AdmirableSnackbar: TheSubjunctive: [Fark user image 500x253]

I wish I could say confidently where we are on this chart.

We never had that first downslope, it's possible we're still just approaching that first peak.

The ocean does not recede completely between each wave.. the US is on wave #3 and Europe (minus Sweden) is on wave #2. I think we're beyond comparing this one to 1918.. we're in uncharted waters in terms of modern medical emergencies.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:19:50 AM  

Ambivalence: And the federally government has officially declared it has no interest in stopping it.


Because Freedumb.

But more like a fleeing cowardly army, scorching the earth to make things far worse for the victors.
 
2020-10-26 11:19:50 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Might be time to steal a yacht and flee to a small pacific island.


Fark user imageView Full Size


Unavailable for comment.
 
2020-10-26 11:20:20 AM  
Fark user image
 
Juc [TotalFark]
2020-10-26 11:21:25 AM  
well the usa's taking its role as the control group really seriously.
 
2020-10-26 11:21:43 AM  

SurelyShirley: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

The EU is testing more.


Well, that's where they farked up.
 
2020-10-26 11:22:33 AM  

Ambivalence: And the federal government has officially declared it has no interest in stopping it.

And  the federal government Trump Administration has officially declared it has no interest in utilizing those Federal Resources at their disposal in stopping it.


/just a little more precise
 
2020-10-26 11:23:01 AM  

dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....


Depending on which per capita you use.
 
2020-10-26 11:23:03 AM  

Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...


Keep in mind the population of Europe is more than twice that of the US (740 millionish vs 330 millionish), so what that means is they are just now getting as bad as we are, after many months of being much better than us.
 
2020-10-26 11:23:12 AM  

Shaggy_C: dkulprit: It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

EU has 513 million (if you count the UK still.) The USA has 330 million. Not quite 'twice.'

SurelyShirley: The EU is testing more.

Compared to March, yes. The UK has one of the highest excess deaths in the world, for instance, but even at the March peak they were recording extremely small numbers because they couldn't test more than a few thousand people a day. Even now there are hours-long queues to get tests around the country. The USA is still testing many more people per capita AFAIK.


Ok, so now it's "per capita", got it. Careful with those goal posts, they might hurt your back.
 
2020-10-26 11:23:38 AM  

Rambino: Isn't all spread exponential by definition? That's kind of how epidemiology works.

/math nerd


Not necessarily.  Some counter examples are a waterborne disease outbreak from a contaminated water source, or a foodborne outbreak due to a lapse in sanitation at a processing plant.
 
2020-10-26 11:25:09 AM  

dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....


No, the EU is only around 450 million, so not even close to twice as many


https://europa.eu/european-union/abou​t​-eu/figures/living_en

The EU covers over 4 million km² and has 446 million inhabitants
 
2020-10-26 11:26:38 AM  

Shaggy_C: dkulprit: It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

EU has 513 million (if you count the UK still.) The USA has 330 million. Not quite 'twice.'

SurelyShirley: The EU is testing more.

Compared to March, yes. The UK has one of the highest excess deaths in the world, for instance, but even at the March peak they were recording extremely small numbers because they couldn't test more than a few thousand people a day. Even now there are hours-long queues to get tests around the country. The USA is still testing many more people per capita AFAIK.


What's the point of your argument? "Hey, we don't have to do anything because Europe is also shiatting the bed"? Or are you just being anti-social for your own sake?
 
2020-10-26 11:29:28 AM  

Tr0mBoNe: What's the point of your argument? "Hey, we don't have to do anything because Europe is also shiatting the bed"? Or are you just being anti-social for your own sake?


I think it is an attempt at "trump not biggest f*ckup in history, so... donnae blame donnie for f*cking up, the f*ckwhistle.  So, elects him again maybe?"

But, he is a tardewhistle and a f*ckmuppet.  The TrumpenFurhrer that is.
 
2020-10-26 11:30:19 AM  
This is what comes of allowing right wingers political power. Take it all away, because your lives and the lives of your loved ones depend on it. Disenfranchise the right wing.
 
2020-10-26 11:33:45 AM  

SurelyShirley: Shaggy_C: dkulprit: It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

EU has 513 million (if you count the UK still.) The USA has 330 million. Not quite 'twice.'

SurelyShirley: The EU is testing more.

Compared to March, yes. The UK has one of the highest excess deaths in the world, for instance, but even at the March peak they were recording extremely small numbers because they couldn't test more than a few thousand people a day. Even now there are hours-long queues to get tests around the country. The USA is still testing many more people per capita AFAIK.

Ok, so now it's "per capita", got it. Careful with those goal posts, they might hurt your back.


Statistical analysis has a well known liberal bias.
 
2020-10-26 11:33:51 AM  
th.bing.comView Full Size

Because we have God.
 
2020-10-26 11:37:43 AM  

neongoats: Disenfranchise the right wing.


Disenfranchise anyone who is not up to matching their responsibilities in a time of crisis.  College degrees, military service, et cetera are all meant to prepare one for dealing with the trials of civilization.  We have been found wanting in this regard, and must correct the course.

Hell, Obama dealt with *three* effin' pandemics, one that started on OUR shores, and there was hardly a ripple in the world.  Other than Trump panicking about one nurse. 
For nothing else, governmental service should have been denied Trump simply because he DID panic THEN (Ebola crisis).  The cockwobbling mushroom bunkerboi.
 
2020-10-26 11:38:14 AM  

Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...


So we're about two weeks behind.

Great.
 
2020-10-26 11:39:40 AM  
It didn't have to be this way.  If that son of a biatch trump and his MAGAt followers hadn't shoved the pandemic response plan up their collective asses, if the narcissistic addicts who insisted on continuing to go to bars, who refused to do something so simple as wear a farking mask, who insisted that "it's no worse than a flu" hadn't been such shiatfarks, a lot of those 225+ thousand people would still be alive.
 
2020-10-26 11:39:58 AM  

wheresmypen: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

So we're about two weeks behind.

Great.


This means, if you want to be part of the big-jump-club, your window to get infected begins today!
 
2020-10-26 11:40:10 AM  

Eightballjacket: dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

No, the EU is only around 450 million, so not even close to twice as many


https://europa.eu/european-union/about​-eu/figures/living_en

The EU covers over 4 million km² and has 446 million inhabitants


That chart is misleading because it's not actually johns hopkins.  It is from johns hopkins data, and it is based on all of Europe... and not the EU only.

2 different things.

And Europe, the "continent" has 741 millions people.

That would be like saying America, and then including canada and Mexico.  (Which actually would make the case count better).

Europe as a whole has had 120k cases.
 
2020-10-26 11:44:35 AM  

eurotrader: koder: We're "going herd" until Trump is removed.

In a herd, culling the cause of harm is a good practice.


Public health officials will be targeted for death.

American LEO will refuse to enforce anything the new Administration mandates, universally, and in force.

And we thought they were pricks before? We haven't seen anything yet.
 
2020-10-26 11:46:42 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:47:19 AM  

Eightballjacket: dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

No, the EU is only around 450 million, so not even close to twice as many


https://europa.eu/european-union/about​-eu/figures/living_en

The EU covers over 4 million km² and has 446 million inhabitants


The EU is *in* Europe.  Europe has a bigger population than the EU.
 
2020-10-26 11:48:38 AM  

berylman: eurotrader: Republicans announcing that they don't care if people live or die and crashing the economy is their goal. Republicans not even voting on Covid relief shows they want the US to burn. Republicans truly are POS.

The majority of Rep. Senate thinks they can crash and burn America and walk off with a loot bag of cash out of the country. That is antithetical to the role of public servant for which they were elected.


Please. Senators are elected to steal pork from the other states and and render it unto their just as terrible constituents.
 
2020-10-26 11:49:36 AM  

doctorguilty: TheSubjunctive: [Fark user image 500x253]

I wish I could say confidently where we are on this chart.

The second tick, I fear.


Great, now there's ticks too?
 
2020-10-26 11:51:30 AM  

Olliewog: Personally I would like to see the percentage of people testing positive as opposed to a number.  Testing is more common and faster than even 6 weeks ago.  I know 12 people tested in the last 10 days that got tested simply because they finally could.

Numbers are arbitrary and can be manipulated to support the narrative you want to tell.  Percentage of tested vs. positive paints a much more accurate picture.  The article states percentage rise in cases but missed stating percentage of people being tested that are positive.


The article didn't miss it. You did.

"However, more testing cannot account for the rise in cases, health officials say, because the percent of tests coming back positive has increased as well. About 6.2% of tests were positive on Sunday based on a seven-day average, according to Hopkins, up from 5.2% a week earlier. "
 
2020-10-26 11:51:31 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:53:18 AM  

whidbey: All you have to do is go to the comments section of any news page or governor's page on FB.

Goobers.

Goobers everywhere.


Goobers and people who think Culp would be a good governor.
 
2020-10-26 11:55:03 AM  

whidbey: All you have to do is go to the comments section of any news page or governor's page on FB.

Goobers.

Goobers everywhere.


Brought to you by the slow, willful destruction of effective public education, as the only ones that paid attention to school board elections and city councils were bible thumpers and anti government psychopaths, as the rest of us norms thought it was not worth our precious time.

Hell, even on the state level. Quick: name your state reps!

See?
 
2020-10-26 11:57:07 AM  
Let's see who's not doing their job, besides Trump.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 11:58:24 AM  

BafflerMeal: Eightballjacket: dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

No, the EU is only around 450 million, so not even close to twice as many


https://europa.eu/european-union/about​-eu/figures/living_en

The EU covers over 4 million km² and has 446 million inhabitants

The EU is *in* Europe.  Europe has a bigger population than the EU.


Right, but the poster said EU had twice the population of the US, not Europe.

Another poster asked if certain countries were skewing the European numbers.  Yes, France, UK, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and even Germany have reported a huge amount of cases over the past 7 days.  France reported 52,000 yesterday, which adjusted for population would be comparable to 250,000 US cases.
 
2020-10-26 12:00:11 PM  

neongoats: This is what comes of allowing right wingers political power. Take it all away, because your lives and the lives of your loved ones depend on it. Disenfranchise the right wing.


I don't think they're going to allow that.
[Electoral College throws double birds]
 
2020-10-26 12:03:26 PM  

thorpe: Let's see who's not doing their job, besides Trump.

[Fark user image image 850x1148]


A more honest graph would have used Red and Blue for the state bars.
 
2020-10-26 12:04:06 PM  

indy_kid: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

27 nations with a combined population of 446M have 120K cases (27 per 100,000), while the US has a population of 328M and has 60K (18.3 per 100,000).

ON OCT 22.

Bless your heart, you red-headed stepchild.  Let's revisit that graph in 2 weeks, shall we?


Also, the U.S. reported 75,000 new cases on October 22nd, not 60,000
 
2020-10-26 12:07:32 PM  

Momzilla59: whidbey: All you have to do is go to the comments section of any news page or governor's page on FB.

Goobers.

Goobers everywhere.

Goobers and people who think Culp would be a good governor.


It's scary.   I can't help but think we're being complacent in our King/Pierce/Thurston/Snoho bubble like the rest of the country was in 2016.

There really could be just enough goobers to unseat Inslee.  They farking hate him.
 
2020-10-26 12:09:01 PM  

Eightballjacket: BafflerMeal: Eightballjacket: dkulprit: BizarreMan: 40 degree day: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

I'm pretty sure what this graph proves is that a weak and decentralized response doesn't work.

I would like to see a breakdown by country or response type.  I'm confident that there is at least one country that isn't doing squat which is skewing the data for the overall line on the graph.

It's not only that, but the European union has more than twice the amount of people.  So per capita, they're still lower....

No, the EU is only around 450 million, so not even close to twice as many


https://europa.eu/european-union/about​-eu/figures/living_en

The EU covers over 4 million km² and has 446 million inhabitants

The EU is *in* Europe.  Europe has a bigger population than the EU.

Right, but the poster said EU had twice the population of the US, not Europe.

Another poster asked if certain countries were skewing the European numbers.  Yes, France, UK, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and even Germany have reported a huge amount of cases over the past 7 days.  France reported 52,000 yesterday, which adjusted for population would be comparable to 250,000 US cases.


We're giving a lot of benefit of the doubt to an unexplained graph.
 
2020-10-26 12:13:38 PM  

wheresmypen: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

So we're about two weeks behind.

Great.


Probably not even.  More like just a few days behind.  The U.shiat 80,000+ daily cases now and many areas are reporting well beyond the 5% test positive rate that suggests we are not catching anywhere near all the cases.

This is suggested both by the SHARP rise in deaths the past few days and the poop checking method.  By checking samples at sewage treatment they can see how the population at large is fairing.

Boston, for example, looks a lot like it did in the spring when things got very bad.

pbs.twimg.comView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 12:14:42 PM  

I am Tom Joad's Complete Lack of Surprise: thorpe: Let's see who's not doing their job, besides Trump.

[Fark user image image 850x1148]

A more honest graph would have used Red and Blue for the state bars.


At this point its so widespread it doesn't matter.  Red states infect neighboring blue states.  Minnesota, for example, is surrounding by infected stupid.
 
2020-10-26 12:17:50 PM  

weddingsinger: wheresmypen: Shaggy_C: If only we had good, socialist governments like in Europe instead of shiatty leadership like Trump. Then our curve would look--

[cdn.statcdn.com image 850x850]

Oh...

So we're about two weeks behind.

Great.

Probably not even.  More like just a few days behind.  The U.shiat 80,000+ daily cases now and many areas are reporting well beyond the 5% test positive rate that suggests we are not catching anywhere near all the cases.

This is suggested both by the SHARP rise in deaths the past few days and the poop checking method.  By checking samples at sewage treatment they can see how the population at large is fairing.

Boston, for example, looks a lot like it did in the spring when things got very bad.

[pbs.twimg.com image 680x495]


i.gifer.comView Full Size
 
2020-10-26 12:21:44 PM  

Olliewog: Personally I would like to see the percentage of people testing positive as opposed to a number.  Testing is more common and faster than even 6 weeks ago.  I know 12 people tested in the last 10 days that got tested simply because they finally could.

Numbers are arbitrary and can be manipulated to support the narrative you want to tell.  Percentage of tested vs. positive paints a much more accurate picture.  The article states percentage rise in cases but missed stating percentage of people being tested that are positive.


It's rising, rapidly, even in states that were previously testing enough.

Illinois has gone from 3% to above 8% in about a month.
 
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