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 17 More: Spiffy
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784 clicks; posted to Entertainment » on 25 Oct 2020 at 3:35 PM (12 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:

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So after Monty opens the door with no prize behind it and then offers to let me switch the door I initially chose, should I do it?

I love this show.

Dang, I  watched this show in the 60s in black and white

Let's Make a Dope Deal

Persnickety: So after Monty opens the door with no prize behind it and then offers to let me switch the door I initially chose, should I do it?

I get it's just the go-to reference here, but for real as a math teacher:
Monty opening the door doesn't change the 2/3 chance that you picked wrong the first time, so yes. You switch, to double your chance of winning from 1/3 to 2/3.
(Although by every possible account that particular game never actually existed on the show...)

Persnickety: So after Monty opens the door with no prize behind it and then offers to let me switch the door I initially chose, should I do it?

Yes.  Of course, there is a real possibility of the show changing the prize fast enough to fix the show.  It is TV after all.  But if it isn't fixed, switching gives you a 50% chance of winning.  Not switching is 33%.

/once you  get the Monty Haul paradox, you can start to learn probability
//if you can't grok it, you probably get most of the rest of probability wrong
///and don't even start about how 71%==100%.

yet_another_wumpus: But if it isn't fixed, switching gives you a 50% chance of winning.  Not switching is 33%.

There is an assumption in the Monty Hall Paradox that often gets overlooked: Monty has to know the configuration of the doors.

Maybe he opens doors randomly.  Maybe 50% of the time, he opens the prize door and the game ends.  if Monty has no intrinsic knowledge of the game when opening the doors, the paradox disappears and the contestant has no probabilistic advantage to switching.

Uzzah: yet_another_wumpus: But if it isn't fixed, switching gives you a 50% chance of winning.  Not switching is 33%.

There is an assumption in the Monty Hall Paradox that often gets overlooked: Monty has to know the configuration of the doors.

Maybe he opens doors randomly.  Maybe 50% of the time, he opens the prize door and the game ends.  if Monty has no intrinsic knowledge of the game when opening the doors, the paradox disappears and the contestant has no probabilistic advantage to switching.

No.  Monty knows ahead and always opens a door without a prize.  If they somehow opened a door with a prize, you simply take that one.  So either way you switch.

Uzzah: yet_another_wumpus: But if it isn't fixed, switching gives you a 50% chance of winning.  Not switching is 33%.

There is an assumption in the Monty Hall Paradox that often gets overlooked: Monty has to know the configuration of the doors.

Maybe he opens doors randomly.  Maybe 50% of the time, he opens the prize door and the game ends.  if Monty has no intrinsic knowledge of the game when opening the doors, the paradox disappears and the contestant has no probabilistic advantage to switching.

There's no drama in opening the door with the grand prize first.

And to be clear, this is a post-COVID return to the airwaves.

Wayne Brady has been hosting Let's Make a Deal on CBS since 2009.

12349876: And to be clear, this is a post-COVID return to the airwaves.

Wayne Brady has been hosting Let's Make a Deal on CBS since 2009.

Yeah I was wondering considering the headline.
/What article?

Charles of York: Dang, I  watched this show in the 60s in black and white

I remember when it was just white but we have come a long way in game show diversity since then.

I'm so farking tired of the game shows. If Evil doesn't come  back soon, I'm going to shoot the TV

Artcurus: I'm so farking tired of the game shows. If Evil doesn't come  back soon, I'm going to shoot the TV

Oddly, I've been on a real game show kick while working from home. It's the easiest shiat to have on while doing work.

Artcurus: I'm so farking tired of the game shows. If Evil doesn't come  back soon, I'm going to shoot the TV

Better than "reality" shows.

Hell, CBS could've strangled this whole Reality thing in the crib if they'd just picked up the What's My Line revival starring Harry Anderson instead of Survivor.

12349876: And to be clear, this is a post-COVID return to the airwaves.

Wayne Brady has been hosting Let's Make a Deal on CBS since 2009.

This made me feel real old. I knew it had come back at some point with Brady, but since 2009? It's been on for 11 years now?

Last week's new Whose Line had Brady spoofing himself on LMAD in one sketch and it was hilarious, FWIW.

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