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(Washington Post)   Just as an exercise in "what if", what *would* happen to the GOP if Texas really did turn blue this year?   (washingtonpost.com) divider line
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2568 clicks; posted to Politics » on 18 Oct 2020 at 10:30 AM (2 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



115 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2 days ago  
I can't speak for the GOP but I have a bottle of champagne in the fridge and some fireworks left over from July 4th that are on standby just in case.

I suspect there may be spontaneous partying in the streets here in Houston.
 
2 days ago  
Like FunkJunkie, I too have a celebratory playlist involving alcohol and explosives should Texas return to reality.
 
2 days ago  
aetre.xepher.netView Full Size


Partying will commence. The trick will be not getting so drunk that I blackout and forget the celebration.
 
2 days ago  
Texas is the only big state the GOP can reliably count on every four years. All of the other solidly or even mildly Republican states have low electoral vote counts (11 or less). The Democrats (usually) carry all the big ones; California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio. I say "usually" because those last three flop in the wind more than a flaccid dick in a hurricane. You may think you know what direction they're going in, but you can't 100% be sure.

If you take Texas's 38 EVs out of the equation and just add up all the states that are either solidly or barely going for Trump as of right now, he only gets 140 EVs. That's it. Which is pretty goddamn pathetic. And hysterical. Don't forget hysterical. Trump needs Texas more than Texas needs Trump, which is why Biden polling so close is farking fantastic. It may ultimately go red in two weeks, but the fact that we're even discussing the possibility that it won't is a huge gain for the Dems. HUGE.
 
2 days ago  
I hope it doesn't happen, because I'd be cleaning the cum stains off the ceiling for at least a week.
 
2 days ago  
You're assuming those boxes full of ballots from Houston and Austin are going to be counted and not be sent to the border to be made into a piece of wall by the fine welders of IvankaCorps?
 
2 days ago  

Mr. Coffee Nerves: You're assuming those boxes full of ballots from Houston and Austin are going to be counted and not be sent to the border to be made into a piece of wall by the fine welders of IvankaCorps?


Yeah, Abbott simply won't allow it.
 
2 days ago  
Just as an exercise in "what if", what *would* happen to the GOP if Texas really did turn blue this year?

The average IQ of Texans would go up by 75 points?
 
2 days ago  
I'm in Dallas. I feel good about my local reps, incumbent Democrats. But if MJ and Biden/Harris take Texas, I'm going to celebrate like it's 1776.
 
2 days ago  
If it goes blue on election night I've already made concessions I will be drinking heavily regardless so I may just start laughing uncontrollably until I puke.
 
2 days ago  
Still a racist backwater
 
2 days ago  
Ann Richard's ghost will have ubiquitous instances of crunching Doritos in the faces of nativists à la Avery Schreiber.
 
2 days ago  

Minus1Kelvin: If it goes blue on election night I've already made concessions I will be drinking heavily regardless so I may just start laughing uncontrollably until I puke.


I'll be skipping my Eliquis so I can have an extra drink or two.
 
2 days ago  
If Texas goes blue it means Joe absolutely annihilated Trump in the election so the Mrs. and I would do our traditional celebrations usually done when one of his minions gets arrested where if it lasts more than 4 hours I have to consult a physician.
 
2 days ago  
If Texas goes blue?

I would probably consult a physician after 4 hours when my erection refuses to subside.

obligatoryarchermeme.jpg
 
2 days ago  

weddingsinger: If Texas goes blue it means Joe absolutely annihilated Trump in the election so the Mrs. and I would do our traditional celebrations usually done when one of his minions gets arrested where if it lasts more than 4 hours I have to consult a physician.


So you going to be pretty busy next year then
 
2 days ago  
Wait. If this happens does that mean I have to be nicer to all the Californian people that moved here? I'm not sure I'm ready for that
 
2 days ago  

weddingsinger: If Texas goes blue it means Joe absolutely annihilated Trump in the election so the Mrs. and I would do our traditional celebrations usually done when one of his minions gets arrested where if it lasts more than 4 hours I have to consult a physician.


1 minute earlier and I would have had a simulpost.

So close.

Well played.
 
2 days ago  
Already voted Wednesday, Democrat straight down the ballot. I think the Legislature ending straight ticket voting may end up hurting the Republicans more than Democrats in an environment where the Republicans are dependent on one name to draw votes (Trump).
 
2 days ago  
I'd probably have a heart attack from shock.
 
2 days ago  
i.kym-cdn.comView Full Size
 
2 days ago  

FunkJunkie: I can't speak for the GOP but I have a bottle of champagne in the fridge and some fireworks left over from July 4th that are on standby just in case.

I suspect there may be spontaneous partying in the streets here in Houston.


I bought a bottle of dom almost four years ago to celebrate the moment he's out of the White House.

If Texas goes blue, I'll fell better about living here.
 
2 days ago  
Just the fact that the GOP bedrock states are trending blue should have the GOP doing some serious soul-searching. That's not happening so if Texas does finally go blue, they won't do anything but double down on the derp and conclude they didn't cheat well enough.
 
2 days ago  

SecretAgentWoman: I'm in Dallas. I feel good about my local reps, incumbent Democrats. But if MJ and Biden/Harris take Texas, I'm going to celebrate like it's 1776.


I'm in Arlington here and hoping for a pleasant surprise myself. My area is infested with republicans, however.
 
2 days ago  
what *would* happen to the GOP if Texas really did turn blue this year?

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2 days ago  
Hair- Aquarius
Youtube N9oq_IskRIg
 
2 days ago  

tbhouston: Wait. If this happens does that mean I have to be nicer to all the Californian people that moved here? I'm not sure I'm ready for that


Why be mean instead of nice?
They might do something like build film studios and create jobs.
Katy Perry - California Gurls (Official Music Video) ft. Snoop Dogg
Youtube F57P9C4SAW4
They seem nice.
 
2 days ago  
For a long time, the balance between metro and non-metro Texas didn't make much difference. The metropolitan areas split their votes between Republicans and Democrats in about the same proportions as in the smaller towns and rural areas, according to Murray and Cross. That began to change in the past two decades and has quickened in the past five years. Not only do the big cities and surrounding suburbs account for a larger proportion of the statewide vote, they are increasingly voting Democratic.

I read this and I'm having a weird moment where I think this is kind of profound.

Like, why did it end up this way, where the key dividing political question of our time is cities VS rural? It's the most likely indicator of party.
I guess how it happened was based on the electoral college and senate strategies, reinforced for decades, where one party deliberately selected their platform for a a rural audience.

Just... You know, how odd. What is so different about those folks out there in the woods?
 
2 days ago  
I don't think there will be enough increase from non-voters to flip Texas, but that's not what's critical to this election. What's critical in Texas with this election (and flip Texas for the long run) is for Dems to take the House in Texas. This will give them a seat at the table when defining districts from the 2020 census and THAT is what will flip Texas blue in the long term.
 
2 days ago  

Befuddled: Just the fact that the GOP bedrock states are trending blue should have the GOP doing some serious soul-searching. That's not happening so if Texas does finally go blue, they won't do anything but double down on the derp and conclude they didn't cheat well enough.


Yeah, it's going to take a few election cycles of the Republicans being completely out of power before the jettison the We Were Not Conservative Enough™ horseshiat.
 
2 days ago  

The Ocho: I don't think there will be enough increase from non-voters to flip Texas, but that's not what's critical to this election. What's critical in Texas with this election (and flip Texas for the long run) is for Dems to take the House in Texas. This will give them a seat at the table when defining districts from the 2020 census and THAT is what will flip Texas blue in the long term.


Trump's 16 margin in Texas was fewer than 1 million votes, 1.8 million more have registered since then.
60% of new registrations have been under 25 or people of color.

This might be the year.
 
2 days ago  

SecretAgentWoman: I'm in Dallas. I feel good about my local reps, incumbent Democrats. But if MJ and Biden/Harris take Texas, I'm going to celebrate like it's 1776.


I am not hopeful but i did my part. If we get rid of Cornyn and Granger here in Fort Worth i would be ecstatic. Straight blue, i think gop got rid of straight ticket voting to help down ticket thugs.
 
2 days ago  

The Ocho: I don't think there will be enough increase from non-voters to flip Texas, but that's not what's critical to this election. What's critical in Texas with this election (and flip Texas for the long run) is for Dems to take the House in Texas. This will give them a seat at the table when defining districts from the 2020 census and THAT is what will flip Texas blue in the long term.


If the Democrats gain enough power to reverse Republican voter suppression, Texas could turn blue for decades. That alone would severely reduce or eliminate Republicans in the White House for the foreseeable future.
 
2 days ago  

Hoarseman: Already voted Wednesday, Democrat straight down the ballot.


I was straight down the ballot x 3, with my father and son. My daughter still needs to vote and she is a little iffy as to if she actually will. If she does, that's 4 for every Dem on the ballot.
 
2 days ago  
cold snap in Texas

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2 days ago  
Polls are adjusted to try to account for people who are likely to vote.  And historically, not many left leaning Texans want to vote / are allowed to vote / feel safe voting.

So in any given election, substantially more people vote in Florida than in Texas, despite the latter's substantially larger population, and the Texas polls are skewed red to account for that.

But this year might be the year Texans actually vote.

When you compare the number of votes cast in 2016 to the current number of mail in ballots and early votes, most states have hit about 20% to 25% already.  But in Texas, they've reached 40% and are still going strong.

That's got to be causing consternation with the GOP.  We look like we are tracking towards a 20% to 30% increased turnout in Texas, and nobody knows what that will mean.
 
2 days ago  
I'm supposed to be driving out of town on Nov. 6.  If Texas flips blue, I don't think I will have sobered up by then.


Maybe I should think about getting a second driver to ride along.  Just in case.


/Starts praying fervently for the voters in Texas.
 
2 days ago  

tbhouston: Wait. If this happens does that mean I have to be nicer to all the Californian people that moved here? I'm not sure I'm ready for that


You don't have to be nicer, but you might want to get used to calling them Sir. Or Boss, depending on how informal your workplace is.
 
2 days ago  
Looks like Texas is following the path Virginia took a decade ago. Changing demographics and people moving into the cities for jobs, and then starting to trend to more liberal views.

If/When Texas goes blue it's probably not going Red again and the GOP is going to need to find a sea change in political alignment in the country if they want to exist going forward.
 
2 days ago  
Going for Biden would be awesome.  Anther wonder outcome would be for one of the houses of their legislature going blue.  Can you imagine Republicans having to work with Dems when they redistrict?

I'm going to rub one out now.
 
2 days ago  
I'd love it if our state legislature could go blue, too. We need some major reforms that can only be addressed at the state level. I voted blue all the way down.
 
2 days ago  

kudayta: Like FunkJunkie, I too have a celebratory playlist involving alcohol and explosives should Texas return to reality.


you two might call it celebratory supplies....reset of us call it Tuesday...
 
2 days ago  
Growing up the Hamilton of the day was the play and then the movie 1776. My mother played the album a lot when I was young and I think the GOP's response to any loss can be found in one of the songs.:

 We'll dance together to the same minuet
 To the right, ever to the right
 Never to the left, forever to the right

More guns, god, and 1890's government. They always assume they lost because they weren't sufficiently conservative.
 
2 days ago  
If Texas turns blue it'll be time to invest in some lottery tickets.
 
2 days ago  

Coco LaFemme: Texas is the only big state the GOP can reliably count on every four years. All of the other solidly or even mildly Republican states have low electoral vote counts (11 or less). The Democrats (usually) carry all the big ones; California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio. I say "usually" because those last three flop in the wind more than a flaccid dick in a hurricane. You may think you know what direction they're going in, but you can't 100% be sure.

If you take Texas's 38 EVs out of the equation and just add up all the states that are either solidly or barely going for Trump as of right now, he only gets 140 EVs. That's it. Which is pretty goddamn pathetic. And hysterical. Don't forget hysterical. Trump needs Texas more than Texas needs Trump, which is why Biden polling so close is farking fantastic. It may ultimately go red in two weeks, but the fact that we're even discussing the possibility that it won't is a huge gain for the Dems. HUGE.


If Texas is blue, it's highly unlikely any of the "tossup" states are even close.  We're well past 400EV at that point.
 
2 days ago  
I would be extremely smug.

EXTREMELY.

>186104 votes cast already in Bexar County as of yesterday
 
2 days ago  

Coco LaFemme: Texas is the only big state the GOP can reliably count on every four years. All of the other solidly or even mildly Republican states have low electoral vote counts (11 or less). The Democrats (usually) carry all the big ones; California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio. I say "usually" because those last three flop in the wind more than a flaccid dick in a hurricane. You may think you know what direction they're going in, but you can't 100% be sure.

If you take Texas's 38 EVs out of the equation and just add up all the states that are either solidly or barely going for Trump as of right now, he only gets 140 EVs. That's it. Which is pretty goddamn pathetic. And hysterical. Don't forget hysterical. Trump needs Texas more than Texas needs Trump, which is why Biden polling so close is farking fantastic. It may ultimately go red in two weeks, but the fact that we're even discussing the possibility that it won't is a huge gain for the Dems. HUGE.


It would be a kill shot for Trump, the GOP, and maybe the sixth party system.
 
2 days ago  

lincoln65: For a long time, the balance between metro and non-metro Texas didn't make much difference. The metropolitan areas split their votes between Republicans and Democrats in about the same proportions as in the smaller towns and rural areas, according to Murray and Cross. That began to change in the past two decades and has quickened in the past five years. Not only do the big cities and surrounding suburbs account for a larger proportion of the statewide vote, they are increasingly voting Democratic.

I read this and I'm having a weird moment where I think this is kind of profound.

Like, why did it end up this way, where the key dividing political question of our time is cities VS rural? It's the most likely indicator of party.
I guess how it happened was based on the electoral college and senate strategies, reinforced for decades, where one party deliberately selected their platform for a a rural audience.

Just... You know, how odd. What is so different about those folks out there in the woods?


Here's what's different:

https://forsetti.tumblr.com/post/1531​8​1757500/on-rural-america-understanding​-isnt-the-problem
 
2 days ago  

Muta: Going for Biden would be awesome.  Anther wonder outcome would be for one of the houses of their legislature going blue.  Can you imagine Republicans having to work with Dems when they redistrict?

I'm going to rub one out now.


As long as we're having a frisky morning, imagine the same demographics changing Florida from purple to blue. Both Texas and Florida are winner-takes-all states, which would add 67 electoral votes to the Democrat's column.
 
2 days ago  

SomeAmerican: Polls are adjusted to try to account for people who are likely to vote.  And historically, not many left leaning Texans want to vote / are allowed to vote / feel safe voting.

So in any given election, substantially more people vote in Florida than in Texas, despite the latter's substantially larger population, and the Texas polls are skewed red to account for that.

But this year might be the year Texans actually vote.

When you compare the number of votes cast in 2016 to the current number of mail in ballots and early votes, most states have hit about 20% to 25% already.  But in Texas, they've reached 40% and are still going strong.

That's got to be causing consternation with the GOP.  We look like we are tracking towards a 20% to 30% increased turnout in Texas, and nobody knows what that will mean.


You know how early voting is through the roof nationwide?

The state with the highest percentage of 2016 total vote that has already early voted us Texas, now over 40%.
 
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