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(ABC News)   Tesla sales surge, drive off by themselves amid global demand   (abcnews.go.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Nikola Tesla, Tesla's third-quarter sales, Tesla coil, Donald Trump, San Francisco Bay Area, Wardenclyffe Tower, Vehicle, Electric car  
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365 clicks; posted to Business » on 02 Oct 2020 at 1:18 PM (16 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-10-02 1:52:33 PM  
And Tesla stock is down 6%!

Got to love the market. Selling more cars is a liability and a sign of waning demand, while pie-in-the-sky promises are proof that Tesla is worth more than most car companies combined.
 
2020-10-02 2:04:27 PM  

TotallyHeadless: And Tesla stock is down 6%!

Got to love the market. Selling more cars is a liability and a sign of waning demand, while pie-in-the-sky promises are proof that Tesla is worth more than most car companies combined.


I bought on the down.  And I'll buy again if it's down on Monday.
It ain't "pie in the sky".  Tesla has delivered pretty much what they said they would and Musk and Tesla management has been largely straightforward about what are the challenges for the company.  Musk has said he thinks the stock is overvalued which is obvious, and the stock being way overvalued doesn't help him or the company any.Anyhow, the haters can hate.  I've made good money on their stock all throughout the year.  There will be corrections ahead for sure, but I'm bullish on holding long.  I certainly wouldn't say the same about the Detroit 3.
 
2020-10-02 2:47:43 PM  

SirEattonHogg: TotallyHeadless: And Tesla stock is down 6%!

Got to love the market. Selling more cars is a liability and a sign of waning demand, while pie-in-the-sky promises are proof that Tesla is worth more than most car companies combined.

I bought on the down.  And I'll buy again if it's down on Monday.
It ain't "pie in the sky".  Tesla has delivered pretty much what they said they would and Musk and Tesla management has been largely straightforward about what are the challenges for the company.  Musk has said he thinks the stock is overvalued which is obvious, and the stock being way overvalued doesn't help him or the company any.Anyhow, the haters can hate.  I've made good money on their stock all throughout the year.  There will be corrections ahead for sure, but I'm bullish on holding long.  I certainly wouldn't say the same about the Detroit 3.


Have you looked into how many cars Tesla needs to sell in order to justify that evaluation?  I don't think it is enough just to essentially replace the big 2.1 (formerly big 3) anymore, they also have to move big into their solar power (SolarCity and Telsa solar panels).  I can't see how the stock is anything but a bubble.

Granted, while Elon Musk has tweeted that the stock price is overvalued, as far as I know he is so heavily leveraged that he might lose control of both Telsa and SpaceX if the stock crashed (at least to a sane PE ratio).  He's proven just about everybody wrong before, and I wouldn't bet against him.  I just wouldn't want to have to make the bet that Tesla can justify its stock price.
 
2020-10-02 3:04:14 PM  

yet_another_wumpus: SirEattonHogg: TotallyHeadless: And Tesla stock is down 6%!

Got to love the market. Selling more cars is a liability and a sign of waning demand, while pie-in-the-sky promises are proof that Tesla is worth more than most car companies combined.

I bought on the down.  And I'll buy again if it's down on Monday.
It ain't "pie in the sky".  Tesla has delivered pretty much what they said they would and Musk and Tesla management has been largely straightforward about what are the challenges for the company.  Musk has said he thinks the stock is overvalued which is obvious, and the stock being way overvalued doesn't help him or the company any.Anyhow, the haters can hate.  I've made good money on their stock all throughout the year.  There will be corrections ahead for sure, but I'm bullish on holding long.  I certainly wouldn't say the same about the Detroit 3.

Have you looked into how many cars Tesla needs to sell in order to justify that evaluation?  I don't think it is enough just to essentially replace the big 2.1 (formerly big 3) anymore, they also have to move big into their solar power (SolarCity and Telsa solar panels).  I can't see how the stock is anything but a bubble.

Granted, while Elon Musk has tweeted that the stock price is overvalued, as far as I know he is so heavily leveraged that he might lose control of both Telsa and SpaceX if the stock crashed (at least to a sane PE ratio).  He's proven just about everybody wrong before, and I wouldn't bet against him.  I just wouldn't want to have to make the bet that Tesla can justify its stock price.


I don't disagree - there are some serious concerns in holding his stock.  OTOH, traditional valuation used for the car companies doesn't seem to cut it thus far. He sells what he makes so it's a question of expansion. As to being over-leveraged, it seems the guy is now able to raise whatever amount he needs.  These also seem to be the same concerns Amazon had in its formative years.  I still like keeping some to hold long term but I admit I have been shedding shares here and there when the prices get to a certain point and it's too attractive not to sell.
 
2020-10-02 4:29:07 PM  
SirEattonHogg: I don't disagree - there are some serious concerns in holding his stock.  OTOH, traditional valuation used for the car companies doesn't seem to cut it thus far. He sells what he makes so it's a question of expansion. As to being over-leveraged, it seems the guy is now able to raise whatever amount he needs.  These also seem to be the same concerns Amazon had in its formative years.  I still like keeping some to hold long term but I admit I have been shedding shares here and there when the prices get to a certain point and it's too attractive not to sell.


I don't know, there are some signs Tesla's not that supply-constrained anymore. They said in the Q2 report that installed capacity for all models is about 172k units and they only delivered 139k during Q3. But okay, that's more of a theoretical capacity and you may not have the right model mix, enough parts etc. available in every factory all the time. But they just cut the Model 3 price in China a whopping 8 percent AND they are considering shipping Chinese-made cars to other markets like Australia and even Europe. You don't do either of those things if you can sell everything you make.

They are also tanking in some markets like Europe where the Model 3 sales are down some 12 percent year-to-date when compared to 2019. Don't think it's the 'rona either, since overall EV sales have almost doubled vs 2019.

I do agree that Tesla can keep raising capital with no issues. In fact I'm expecting them to sell another batch of stock by years' end as long as it stays around the $400 mark or above.

It's basically a meme stock, owned by a lot of Tesla zealots and more recently by a lot of regular people who caught the FOMO virus. Shorting this stock, while fundamentally correct, is not for the faint of heart.
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-10-02 5:01:47 PM  
5th consecutive profitable quarter - that's pretty damn good going.
 
2020-10-02 7:49:25 PM  
Well, it is pretty amazing, isnt it? Remember everyone making all this money: you only make money when you sell.

So we have 44% sales growth in one quarter. We have more or less unlimited capital put in by people who are putting it in expecting to earn higher and higher returns. Zero interest rates and exuberance will keep that going.

And that is how you get a PE that is over 1000 right now. Other manufacturers, even ones with long experience in automobiles in general,  and with EVs, are trading with PEs of about 8, up to about 30 for GM. Ford does not even have one because it forgot what making cars is.

So the PE depends on profits, not sales. How many years of 100% profit growth will account for a 1000 PE? Well, that is profits DOUBLING every year, right? So to get to 1000 times what it is now would be....well ... only 10 years and change. But what if the PE were only 500? Well. 9 years. It would take 9 years, right?

One assumes that margins decrease with scale, and that costs rise faster than revenues. And to get double profits will require more than doubled production. And physically, of course, more than doubling production capacity every year for 10 years is not even remotely possible.

Yeah. I am wasting my time. Because nobody who owns Tesla stock thinks like this. If they did, they would not own Tesla stock. I saw this with Enron, when anyone who tried to say something reasonable was shouted down. Shareholders, even employees, were left with nothing. They blamed everyone. Literally everyone. Laws were passed, and then ignored. Bernie Madoff. Michael Milkin. John DeLorean. Tucker. Nikola Tesla himself. There is never time to stop and look around when everyone is getting rich. The delusion BECOMES the vested interest. And everyone assumes that the other guy is the smartest one in the room because they have no real grasp of what is going on.

This stock is a runaway. So enjoy. Far from being a naysayer, I would not be surprised if it kept climbing.  I think the last sane valuation I saw was more than five years ago, but with the accounting the way it was, who knows?  Will people be rich? Sure. A few people really made out well with Enron stock. A lot of people who really needed and counted on the money were left with nothing.

They remembered that you only make money when you sell.
 
2020-10-02 11:03:37 PM  

TotallyHeadless: And Tesla stock is down 6%!

Got to love the market. Selling more cars is a liability and a sign of waning demand, while pie-in-the-sky promises are proof that Tesla is worth more than most car companies combined.


This is because they missed the "target" that some "analyst" pulled out his nickers after a six martini lunch.
 
Xai [TotalFark]
2020-10-03 10:35:50 AM  

2fardownthread: Well, it is pretty amazing, isnt it? Remember everyone making all this money: you only make money when you sell.

So we have 44% sales growth in one quarter. We have more or less unlimited capital put in by people who are putting it in expecting to earn higher and higher returns. Zero interest rates and exuberance will keep that going.

And that is how you get a PE that is over 1000 right now. Other manufacturers, even ones with long experience in automobiles in general,  and with EVs, are trading with PEs of about 8, up to about 30 for GM. Ford does not even have one because it forgot what making cars is.

So the PE depends on profits, not sales. How many years of 100% profit growth will account for a 1000 PE? Well, that is profits DOUBLING every year, right? So to get to 1000 times what it is now would be....well ... only 10 years and change. But what if the PE were only 500? Well. 9 years. It would take 9 years, right?

One assumes that margins decrease with scale, and that costs rise faster than revenues. And to get double profits will require more than doubled production. And physically, of course, more than doubling production capacity every year for 10 years is not even remotely possible.

Yeah. I am wasting my time. Because nobody who owns Tesla stock thinks like this. If they did, they would not own Tesla stock. I saw this with Enron, when anyone who tried to say something reasonable was shouted down. Shareholders, even employees, were left with nothing. They blamed everyone. Literally everyone. Laws were passed, and then ignored. Bernie Madoff. Michael Milkin. John DeLorean. Tucker. Nikola Tesla himself. There is never time to stop and look around when everyone is getting rich. The delusion BECOMES the vested interest. And everyone assumes that the other guy is the smartest one in the room because they have no real grasp of what is going on.

This stock is a runaway. So enjoy. Far from being a naysayer, I would not be surprised if it kept climbing.  I thin ...


Tesla has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 54.90X compared to the Automotive - Domestic industry's P/E of 26.90X

You're quite a bit out with your ridiculous '1000x' lie but to be honest it's par for the course that anyone anti-tesla lies, they have been doing it for years.

Sure Tesla isn't making massive profits yet, but they have gone from 2 years ago when people like yourself said they would never be profitable to now when they have had a full profitable year.

Enron is a ridiculous example since they were gambling and taking crazy risks with vast sums....why am i bothering explaining this, you know you're talking BS.
 
2020-10-03 2:30:19 PM  

Xai: Tesla has a trailing-twelve-months P/E of 54.90X compared to the Automotive - Domestic industry's P/E of 26.90X


I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. Tesla's TTM EPS is $0.41 or thereabouts (Q3 2020 not included obviously).
At a price per share of $415 and change, you're looking at a TTM P/E of 1,012.

I think forward P/E might be more relevant anyway. I believe the most recent analyst estimates place it in the 300-350 range.
 
2020-10-03 2:43:24 PM  

neaorin: I'm pretty sure that's incorrect. Tesla's TTM EPS is $0.41 or thereabouts (Q3 2020 not included obviously).


Just to be clear, that EPS is post-split (as is the $415 stock price). For instance in Q2 they announced an EPS of $2.18 but have since split their stock 5:1.
 
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