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(Five Thirty-Eight)   Typically when Nate Silver has good polling news, it's supposed to be a bit of a happy, promising, positive occasion   (fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Election, Elections, Voting, national polls, President Trump's quest, Joe Biden, 8-point deficit, potential tipping-point states  
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6966 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Oct 2020 at 12:05 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-09-30 10:02:49 PM  
As a Canadian, I'm getting a very uneasy feeling that I'm living in Sudetenland right now.
 
2020-09-30 10:50:04 PM  
Horse race!

The statistical problem is that even if Biden wins outright, there are additional probabilities at play.

It's like seeing that you're about to win a chess game handily but knowing your chess opponent, in addition to not knowing how to play chess, has a firearm and anger issues.
 
2020-09-30 11:00:23 PM  
This was always going to be a problem. Better deal with it now.
 
2020-09-30 11:01:43 PM  
Yeah, horse race! But the second place finisher which hapens to play checkers poorly, but is said to play chess incredibly unbelievably, falls in the final 12 lengths and tragically has to be put down.
 
2020-09-30 11:20:34 PM  
Could?

Trump never wanted this job.  The only reason he did it is because he couldn't figure out how to get out of it without looking like a loser.  Now he knows the only thing keeping him and his kids out of jail is staying in office.
 
2020-09-30 11:22:49 PM  

ShavedOrangutan: Could?

Trump never wanted this job.  The only reason he did it is because he couldn't figure out how to get out of it without looking like a loser.  Now he knows the only thing keeping him and his kids out of jail is staying in office.


He doesn't care about his kids, he is only worried about his personal legal jeopardy.
 
2020-09-30 11:28:05 PM  

Ghastly: As a Canadian, I'm getting a very uneasy feeling that I'm living in Sudetenland right now.


Well, if Trump wins, me grabbing my essentials and a rowboat and rowing my ass across Lake Erie to seek political asylum is not out of the realm of possibility.
 
2020-09-30 11:57:36 PM  
Like seriously US! Don't do the fascism! History has shown it's not good for you and it's not good for your neighbours when you do the fascism. I'm an old arthritic man who hasn't been paid to carry a rifle in almost 40 years. I don't want to spend a Canadian winter as a guerrilla fighter doing what I can to pick off an occupying army because you guys did the fascism. I'm begging you not to do the fascism! I mean, like a video game sure, that would be an interesting what-if game and I always love to play the grizzled old veteran who is grumpy but has a heart of gold. But I don't want to do that in reality. And if it turns out that this reality is just a very well simulated video game.... SAVE FILE!!!! SAVE FILE!!!!! SAVE FILE!!!!!
 
2020-09-30 11:59:47 PM  

null: Ghastly: As a Canadian, I'm getting a very uneasy feeling that I'm living in Sudetenland right now.

Well, if Trump wins, me grabbing my essentials and a rowboat and rowing my ass across Lake Erie to seek political asylum is not out of the realm of possibility.


I will be waiting on the shore to help you.
 
2020-10-01 12:07:30 AM  
What, you didn't expect a cornered golden marmoset to become vicious?
 
2020-10-01 12:08:23 AM  
It is good news.

BUT BAH GAWD KING, WE'S GONNA HAVE US A HAWSE RACE IF WE GOTS TO PUT ON  FAKE HEADS AND RUN THAT RACE OURSELVES!
 
2020-10-01 12:08:26 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


Let's not bicker and argue about who's going to kill who.
 
2020-10-01 12:08:27 AM  
"President Trump's quest to win a second term is not in good shape. He entered Tuesday night's debate with roughly a 7- or 8-point deficit in national polls, putting him further behind at this stage of the race than any other candidate since Bob Dole in 1996, and he was a banana."
 
2020-10-01 12:09:28 AM  
He wont fight. Not when the extent of the loss begins to dawn. He will run off with his tail between his legs and spend the rest of his life whining how unfair it all was.
 
2020-10-01 12:11:25 AM  
We know he will fling more and more crap in all directions. He has been getting worse everyday.  That was true months ago, and you know it's still true.

The real question is not what will he do, but what will everyone else do?

We're going headlong into whatever it is, and I am past being afraid.   Courage, people!


111 Days, 49 minutes, zero seconds until he is dragged out.
 
2020-10-01 12:11:27 AM  

bdub77: Horse race!

The statistical problem is that even if Biden wins outright, there are additional probabilities at play.

It's like seeing that you're about to win a chess game handily but knowing your chess opponent, in addition to not knowing how to play chess, has a firearm and anger issues.


And plays by pidgeon rules.
 
2020-10-01 12:13:44 AM  
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2020-10-01 12:15:31 AM  

gaspode: He wont fight. Not when the extent of the loss begins to dawn. He will run off with his tail between his legs and spend the rest of his life whining how unfair it all was.


There's money in being the victim. The book deal, the tours, the speaking engagements, the farking political contributor spot on farks news...as soon as his dim-assed brain figures this out, he'll be out of office in no time.
 
2020-10-01 12:16:27 AM  
I figure he's going to nuke somebody. Chances are it'll be one of our cities.
 
2020-10-01 12:17:30 AM  

Scorpitron is reduced to a thin red paste: I figure he's going to nuke somebody. Chances are it'll be one of our cities.


Chicago, the one near the big water.
 
2020-10-01 12:18:57 AM  
I really, really wish the October surprise would be Ivanka's abortion doctor coming forward with records showing Donnie knocked her up. Many times.

/or that Baron is actually theirs
//the multiple abortion scenario would be more epic though
 
2020-10-01 12:19:23 AM  
Don't get cocky.
 
2020-10-01 12:20:12 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-10-01 12:20:28 AM  

Ghastly: As a Canadian, I'm getting a very uneasy feeling that I'm living in Sudetenland right now.


Don't worry too much. Canada is mostly white people. If he starts throwing nukes it won't be at you. I would avoid being downwind, or in the blast radius, of sanctuary cities in the US. Just an FYI from your balls out crazy neighbors 👍.
 
2020-10-01 12:20:35 AM  
"Stand back and stand by"


He's already planting the seeds for some kind of right wing uprising post election.
 
2020-10-01 12:21:19 AM  
Since we've all become finely honed "scenario running machines" which have been trained by the past 5 years, I'll offer this:

Russia interferes extremely obviously and ineptly FOR Biden.  To the point that entire states results are in question.  In states which have spent the last 10-15 years moving to horribly incompetent and insecure electronic voting systems while completely ignoring the advice of security experts (Lookin' at YOU Georgia), Russia could go in, change votes as they're cast and leave a broad, obvious and easy to follow trail in log files.

That throws the whole election into doubt, and makes a case for Trump to accuse Biden of "Collusion", and then we all lose.

Sleep tight.
 
2020-10-01 12:21:58 AM  

Ghastly: As a Canadian, I'm getting a very uneasy feeling that I'm living in Sudetenland right now.


A better analogy would be the Austrian Anschluss, wherein the entire country of Austria joined with Germany.

/ the Sudetenland would be the equivalent of the Toronto metro area
 
2020-10-01 12:22:22 AM  
Regardless of how dangerous he is this is the wrong time to be afraid of Donald Trump. Wary? Absolutely. We knew this was coming. We'll drag him out by his pathetic yeti toadstool if it comes down to it.
 
2020-10-01 12:23:37 AM  
I'm not looking forward to the time between the election and January either. There are no good outcomes.
 
2020-10-01 12:26:09 AM  

bdub77: Horse race!

The statistical problem is that even if Biden wins outright, there are additional probabilities at play.

It's like seeing that you're about to win a chess game handily but knowing your chess opponent, in addition to not knowing how to play chess, has a firearm and anger issues.


Man, people yelled "horse race!" at Silver in 2016 for saying Hillary wasn't that far ahead and could lose, then when she did they they yelled about how Silver had predicted she'd win.

And now again when he comes out and explains that Biden appears to have a stronger lead than Hillary ever did and is the odds-on favourite, but Trump still does have some paths to victory, you yell "horse race!" again.

I'm beginning to think people aren't that good at reading a whole article talking about probabilities and the factors influencing possible outcomes and coming out with a clear understanding of what's being said.  Or something.
 
2020-10-01 12:28:07 AM  

xrayspx: Since we've all become finely honed "scenario running machines" which have been trained by the past 5 years, I'll offer this:

Russia interferes extremely obviously and ineptly FOR Biden.  To the point that entire states results are in question.  In states which have spent the last 10-15 years moving to horribly incompetent and insecure electronic voting systems while completely ignoring the advice of security experts (Lookin' at YOU Georgia), Russia could go in, change votes as they're cast and leave a broad, obvious and easy to follow trail in log files.

That throws the whole election into doubt, and makes a case for Trump to accuse Biden of "Collusion", and then we all lose.

Sleep tight.


Yup. 538-0 *Biden*.

Chaos ensues.

Good times.
 
2020-10-01 12:30:13 AM  

gaspode: He wont fight. Not when the extent of the loss begins to dawn. He will run off with his tail between his legs and spend the rest of his life whining how unfair it all was.


From his prison cell.
 
2020-10-01 12:33:12 AM  

xrayspx: Since we've all become finely honed "scenario running machines" which have been trained by the past 5 years, I'll offer this:

Russia interferes extremely obviously and ineptly FOR Biden.  To the point that entire states results are in question.  In states which have spent the last 10-15 years moving to horribly incompetent and insecure electronic voting systems while completely ignoring the advice of security experts (Lookin' at YOU Georgia), Russia could go in, change votes as they're cast and leave a broad, obvious and easy to follow trail in log files.

That throws the whole election into doubt, and makes a case for Trump to accuse Biden of "Collusion", and then we all lose.

Sleep tight.


fark you! Goddamnit!  WHY DID YOU SAY IT OUTLOUD!?  May not sleep until 2024 now
 
2020-10-01 12:33:38 AM  
OH MY GOD WHAT IF THE PROUD BOYS HAVE GUNDAMNS? WHAT IF THE TEN PERCENTERS ARE VAMPIRES? WHAT IF ONE OF THEM IS SUPERMAN? WHAT IF THE OATH KEEPERS CAN INFILTRATE OUR DREAMS AND KILL US FREDDY KREUGER STYLE? I MUST NOT DARE TAKE THAT RISK! I MUST VOTE TRUMP!!
 
2020-10-01 12:34:47 AM  

Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: This was always going to be a problem. Better deal with it now.


White Supremacists aren't fireproof.

Just sayin'
 
2020-10-01 12:36:40 AM  

fatalvenom: I really, really wish the October surprise would be Ivanka's abortion doctor coming forward with records showing Donnie knocked her up. Many times.

/or that Baron is actually theirs
//the multiple abortion scenario would be more epic though


Whynotboth.jpg
 
2020-10-01 12:37:00 AM  

Snapper Carr: "Stand back and stand by"


He's already planting the seeds for some kind of right wing uprising post election.


If it's anything like the wet fart of a rally they had earlier this month, we can handle them.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna​1​241186

therearedozensofusdozens.jpg
 
2020-10-01 12:37:21 AM  

xrayspx: Since we've all become finely honed "scenario running machines" which have been trained by the past 5 years, I'll offer this:

Russia interferes extremely obviously and ineptly FOR Biden.  To the point that entire states results are in question.  In states which have spent the last 10-15 years moving to horribly incompetent and insecure electronic voting systems while completely ignoring the advice of security experts (Lookin' at YOU Georgia), Russia could go in, change votes as they're cast and leave a broad, obvious and easy to follow trail in log files.

That throws the whole election into doubt, and makes a case for Trump to accuse Biden of "Collusion", and then we all lose.

Sleep tight.


Actors wouldn't even need to go in and change votes, simply accessing the system in a few states will be enough to cause so much outrage among Republicans that they have a literal meltdown. I mean just go look at what happened when a federal contractor tried to test the Georgia Secretary of State's database to look for insecurities, Brian Kemp lost his damn mind and came out with a full blown blitz of "Obama is stealing the election!" Bullshiat that eventually won him the primary; well that other database shenanigans.
 
2020-10-01 12:39:27 AM  

holyflurkingschnitt: xrayspx: Since we've all become finely honed "scenario running machines" which have been trained by the past 5 years, I'll offer this:

Russia interferes extremely obviously and ineptly FOR Biden.  To the point that entire states results are in question.  In states which have spent the last 10-15 years moving to horribly incompetent and insecure electronic voting systems while completely ignoring the advice of security experts (Lookin' at YOU Georgia), Russia could go in, change votes as they're cast and leave a broad, obvious and easy to follow trail in log files.

That throws the whole election into doubt, and makes a case for Trump to accuse Biden of "Collusion", and then we all lose.

Sleep tight.

fark you! Goddamnit!  WHY DID YOU SAY IT OUTLOUD!?  May not sleep until 2024 now


Drown it in beer.  Works, sort of.  I hate that these things inhabit corners of my mind, but then I dwell on "well if I'm thinking it, someone much more nefarious and in a position to act is thinking it too".
 
2020-10-01 12:42:09 AM  

fatalvenom: I really, really wish the October surprise would be Ivanka's abortion doctor coming forward with records showing Donnie knocked her up. Many times.

/or that Baron is actually theirs
//the multiple abortion scenario would be more epic though


No one actually cares about abortions
 
2020-10-01 12:42:40 AM  
Well, he could always audition for The Biggest Loser.  Bonus: it's on the USA USA USA network.
 
2020-10-01 12:43:39 AM  
Could become dangerous?  What have we seen for the past three and a half years?

My biggest fear is that: he loses the election and have no farks left to give and goes off the deep end in harming our country even more before Jan 20
 
2020-10-01 12:44:29 AM  
Do polls really matter when tens of millions of votes will be sent by the mail, can be tampered with/made void using controlled courts and you still have the russian hacking voting machines just like they did in 2016... as per the Mueller report. (FBI found russian spyware in voting machines able to ''disappear'' votes in districts they wanted but the spyware was never activated... or so they claim).

Russia help and Barr/SCOTUS invalidating millions of votes hell even a few tens of thousands could give the electoral college to Trump.

Remember in 2000?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v.​_​Gore#Scholarly_analyses
The subsequent analysis revealed that black-majority precincts had three times as many rejected ballots as white precincts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Un​i​ted_States_presidential_election_in_Fl​orida#Recount
The 2001 book Stupid White Men and other books described efforts made to deny black citizens in Florida the right to vote. As a result of the state's contract with Database Technologies, "173,000 registered voters in Florida were permanently wiped off the voter rolls."[4] Even an elections supervisor in Madison County was barred from voting; she and others "tried to get the state to rectify the problem, but their pleas fell on deaf ears."

The Florida strategy is being used by the GOP... in many states at once.
 
2020-10-01 12:44:52 AM  

bluorangefyre: gaspode: He wont fight. Not when the extent of the loss begins to dawn. He will run off with his tail between his legs and spend the rest of his life whining how unfair it all was.

From his prison cell.


Stop stop, I can only get so hard
 
2020-10-01 12:45:58 AM  

Snapper Carr: "Stand back and stand by"


He's already planting the seeds for some kind of right wing uprising post election.


Okay but what if he doesn't actually know what those words mean
 
2020-10-01 12:50:07 AM  

gaspode: He wont fight. Not when the extent of the loss begins to dawn. He will run off with his tail between his legs and spend the rest of his life whining how unfair it all was.


There is another possibility: Trump cannot allow even the possibility of losing to happen, therefore election day voting cannot happen.  I used to worry about Trump signaling his proud boys to start some massive civil unrest in October but now I don't think the loosely organized white nationalist militias have the numbers to pull it off.

/they'll have to content themselves with pulling each other off
 
2020-10-01 12:51:50 AM  

Surrender your boo-tah: fatalvenom: I really, really wish the October surprise would be Ivanka's abortion doctor coming forward with records showing Donnie knocked her up. Many times.

/or that Baron is actually theirs
//the multiple abortion scenario would be more epic though

No one actually cares about abortions


I wouldn't enjoy a child-free life without them.

Speak for yourself.
 
2020-10-01 12:53:20 AM  

AAAAGGGGHHHH: Snapper Carr: "Stand back and stand by"


He's already planting the seeds for some kind of right wing uprising post election.

If it's anything like the wet fart of a rally they had earlier this month, we can handle them.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1​241186

therearedozensofusdozens.jpg


I expect it'll be 1% actual violence, 99% social media meltdowns
 
2020-10-01 12:57:32 AM  
Trump could always pull an october surprise and stage a fake terrorist attack so muricans rally around the flag.

Hell since China love Trump destroying from the inside and Xi-Trump are BFFs, they could stage a little geopolitical game of sabre rattling and then Trump would say that Biden is China's man and we cannot allow a pro-China president or else we'll be destroyed... Xi could order his propaganda outlets to publish all kinds of pro-Biden stuff to make it look like so...

Trump is a dumbass but a lot of very intelligent people want him to win so he continues his BS and destroy the country from the inside.
 
2020-10-01 12:57:40 AM  
Some members of my family thought I was starting to lose my marbles when I began ranting about this possibility a few years ago.  I don't think people wanted to believe it, but it was right there in front of us.

Regardless of the outcome of the election, these people are not going away.  This country is pretty fractured.
 
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