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(AP News)   You cannot make a Herd Immunity Omelette without breaking some eggs   (apnews.com) divider line
    More: Asinine, Associated Press, Elementary school, Infection, Age, Report, Education, Anxiety, American children  
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2220 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Sep 2020 at 2:05 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-09-29 9:04:08 PM  
Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million
 
2020-09-29 9:08:52 PM  

mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million


Half a million? That's a conservative estimate IMO. I would bet on a million deaths in America before this is all over, plus several million more with permanent disabilities.
 
2020-09-30 2:08:12 AM  
Trump's just burning the house down on his way out. It's despicable.
 
2020-09-30 2:11:09 AM  

Palined Parenthood: Trump's just burning the house down on his way out. It's despicable.


and the idea of a man WITH the "nuclear football" talking about "bringing back football" could also be construed as a mob threat.
 
2020-09-30 2:11:16 AM  
Enjoy your new preexisting condition kids.
 
2020-09-30 2:14:33 AM  
99% will die.
Only a few mutants and paranoids will live.
 
2020-09-30 2:15:08 AM  
The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.
 
2020-09-30 2:16:34 AM  
I was shouted down and told I'm being pessimistic when I said at least 4M Americans will die from this back in March.

Turns out Americans are just as selfish, predictable and dumb as I expected back in March.
 
2020-09-30 2:16:39 AM  

Serious Black: mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million

Half a million? That's a conservative estimate IMO. I would bet on a million deaths in America before this is all over, plus several million more with permanent disabilities.


And, to think, Trump could have proven himself a leader by getting front of it all if only he would have....

Ha, ha, ha, ha...

Should have stopped when I thought I could conjugate "Trump" and "leader" in the same sentence.
 
2020-09-30 2:17:19 AM  
HEY!  The god of the "pro-life" crowd said that children are immune.  I guess the "pro-life" crowd is a bunch of liars about everything and cheer when children get sick and die.

Not much of a surprise.  The "pro-life" people talk the talk, but never walk the walk.

I'm sure that some of them want to "tell their story" to discredit me, but they are trump supporters; therefore pathological liars and nothing they could ever say or write would have any truth to it other than to support a lie.
The ones that say they are not trump supporters are just proving my point.
 
2020-09-30 2:18:07 AM  

Serious Black: mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million

Half a million? That's a conservative estimate IMO. I would bet on a million deaths in America before this is all over, plus several million more with permanent disabilities.


More like over 2 million.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politi​c​s/trump-coronavirus-scott-atlas-herd-i​mmunity/2020/08/30/925e68fe-e93b-11ea-​970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html
 
2020-09-30 2:20:16 AM  
EXCUSE ME - EXCUSE ME, I think you meant to say Herd MENTALITY

 I'm hearing

People are saying
 
2020-09-30 2:20:40 AM  

Fart_Machine: Serious Black: mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million

Half a million? That's a conservative estimate IMO. I would bet on a million deaths in America before this is all over, plus several million more with permanent disabilities.

More like over 2 million.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politic​s/trump-coronavirus-scott-atlas-herd-i​mmunity/2020/08/30/925e68fe-e93b-11ea-​970a-64c73a1c2392_story.html


Assumes we get to true herd immunity absent a vaccine. Could be between 1-5 mil, just depending on how things shake out. I think we'll have a vaccine and production scaled before we get there though, but thats based on Fauci saying he's confident.
 
2020-09-30 2:22:33 AM  
About that "herd immunity"

https://twitter.com/__ice9/status/131​0​878155046113281


Most of this is Greek to me but if I get the gist of it, the virus specifically avoids targeting parts of the cells that impart immunity, thus your immune system fails to recognize additional infections.
 
2020-09-30 2:29:49 AM  

Serious Black: mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million

Half a million? That's a conservative estimate IMO. I would bet on a million deaths in America before this is all over, plus several million more with permanent disabilities.


According to some estimates, up to 90% of COVID cases suffer some form of permanent side effect as a direct result.

This is going to be the gift that keeps on giving.  And just in time for the Republican push to completely annihilate the ACA once and for all, too.
 
2020-09-30 2:32:34 AM  

saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.


Herd immunity doesn't completely eliminate the disease. When it's achieved the numbers of new cases go into a steady decline until it no longer becomes a significant public threat. Cases will still appear from time to time.
 
2020-09-30 2:56:07 AM  

saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.


That's because a population never can develop herd immunity to a bacterial disease, dear heart. The herd immunities only develop to diseases which trigger the body's immune response, namely viral diseases.

It's why there is no herd immunity to malaria (a parasite), cholera, salmonella, or E.coli. And it's why none of those diseases have preventative vaccines..

Try to understand germ theory before you pop off with comments like this.
 
2020-09-30 3:05:26 AM  

mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million


We haven't given up, because we never tried. I went back there for a while in the beginning because I didn't know how difficult it would be to travel overseas for the next couple years. While there I saw at best a half-hearted effort to do anything.

Lockdown? Naw, every business immediately started filing for "essential" status, right down to goddamn hair salons. Social distancing? About half the nation immediately took delight in getting close to strangers at the grocery store or wherever. Centralized response? Our president called it a hoax so many times that half the country still thinks it isn't real; even some people who lost a family member to it. Federal government undermining state level responses. State legislatures undermining governors' orders. Local sheriffs undermining mask mandates. The list goes on and on. We collectively decided we want to genocide ourselves.
 
2020-09-30 3:05:50 AM  
Now imagine if the entire country had done what us idiotic liberals in the Northeast had done- serious lockdown for a month, followed by the judicious use of filter masks plus contact tracing.  We could be down to isolated outbreaks which could be quarantined.  Instead we had Bunko keeping it a secret and downplaying the seriousness, followed by the politicization of public health measures.  This is what happens when you have a feckless, vain leader who is more concerned with his public image than public health.
 
2020-09-30 3:08:05 AM  

saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.


Along the routes the Black Death spread, the Delta-32 genes appear in 14% of the population, vs the less than 1% globally.
Herd Immunity never appeared, but immunity to the plague does exist and grew in the areas it was most common.
 
2020-09-30 3:08:49 AM  

AllCatsAreBeautiful: I was shouted down and told I'm being pessimistic when I said at least 4M Americans will die from this back in March.

Turns out Americans are just as selfish, predictable and dumb as I expected back in March.


I told customers in both the UK and Germany that this thing will be what finally rips the facade off America and shows the world how far we've fallen as a culture, and that it will put us at the kiddie table for the next 50+ years. That was back in Feb/Mar. They thought I was crazy.
 
2020-09-30 3:16:40 AM  

Gyrfalcon: saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.

That's because a population never can develop herd immunity to a bacterial disease, dear heart. The herd immunities only develop to diseases which trigger the body's immune response, namely viral diseases.

It's why there is no herd immunity to malaria (a parasite), cholera, salmonella, or E.coli. And it's why none of those diseases have preventative vaccines..

Try to understand germ theory before you pop off with comments like this.


It's taken millennia to get one for small pox.  Still don't have a good one for rabies.

Might be a many lifetimes before one exists.  I'm not holding out hope for one in mine.
 
2020-09-30 3:17:02 AM  

Don't Troll Me Bro!: mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million

We haven't given up, because we never tried. I went back there for a while in the beginning because I didn't know how difficult it would be to travel overseas for the next couple years. While there I saw at best a half-hearted effort to do anything.

Lockdown? Naw, every business immediately started filing for "essential" status, right down to goddamn hair salons. Social distancing? About half the nation immediately took delight in getting close to strangers at the grocery store or wherever. Centralized response? Our president called it a hoax so many times that half the country still thinks it isn't real; even some people who lost a family member to it. Federal government undermining state level responses. State legislatures undermining governors' orders. Local sheriffs undermining mask mandates. The list goes on and on. We collectively decided we want to genocide ourselves.


Or to put it somewhat succinctly (in terms that others have used before me): Americans should no longer use the phrase "avoid it like the plague" because it has become clear that Americans cannot be counted on to do that.
 
2020-09-30 3:35:12 AM  
No way
 
2020-09-30 3:43:09 AM  

mjjt: Short answer: at least half a million


Good read:

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tr​i​cky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-202​00630/

For people that paid attention to actual experts, this is what they said was going to happen if there wasn't a vaccine.

If they come out with a vaccine, then absolutely, it totally changes the game.

If they don't, then this is how it ends:

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-30 3:52:29 AM  

Don't Troll Me Bro!: AllCatsAreBeautiful: I was shouted down and told I'm being pessimistic when I said at least 4M Americans will die from this back in March.

Turns out Americans are just as selfish, predictable and dumb as I expected back in March.

I told customers in both the UK and Germany that this thing will be what finally rips the facade off America and shows the world how far we've fallen as a culture, and that it will put us at the kiddie table for the next 50+ years. That was back in Feb/Mar. They thought I was crazy.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-30 3:52:36 AM  

OrionXVI: Gyrfalcon: saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.

That's because a population never can develop herd immunity to a bacterial disease, dear heart. The herd immunities only develop to diseases which trigger the body's immune response, namely viral diseases.

It's why there is no herd immunity to malaria (a parasite), cholera, salmonella, or E.coli. And it's why none of those diseases have preventative vaccines..

Try to understand germ theory before you pop off with comments like this.

It's taken millennia to get one for small pox.  Still don't have a good one for rabies.

Might be a many lifetimes before one exists.  I'm not holding out hope for one in mine.


We never obtained a natural herd immunity for smallpox.
 
stk [TotalFark]
2020-09-30 3:55:40 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-30 4:00:19 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


"Off to school you go, little truant bastards!"
 
2020-09-30 4:15:03 AM  

Billy Bathsalt: Now imagine if the entire country had done what us idiotic liberals in the Northeast had done- serious lockdown for a month, followed by the judicious use of filter masks plus contact tracing.  We could be down to isolated outbreaks which could be quarantined.  Instead we had Bunko keeping it a secret and downplaying the seriousness, followed by the politicization of public health measures.  This is what happens when you have a feckless, vain leader who is more concerned with his public image than public health.


New prez. can use withholding of any new stimulus to States, States with Legislatures that won't implement and enforce mandatory masking.can deal with their constituents.

Last I read, only 10% of the U.S. population has been exposed to the virus.  I'd guess that the 205k certified Covid deaths, will soon be augmented by the "excess" in average excess deaths (cardiac/respiratory/strokes otherwise unclassified).  So, say another (conservative est.) 50k.  So, closer to three million, is about right.

Interesting to note that, in New Zealand, the winter flu (influenza) season is simply not happening, a literal handful of cases, apparently.  Only difference between this season and past seasons?  Masks/distancing/hand washing.  CDC Director Redfield couldn't have said it better - masks are as effective as a vaccine.

Repeal of the ACA will bite a whole lot of folks who caught it and felt nothing.  Once the Insurance companies can go back to business as usual and, given the number of organ systems the virus goes after - and better understanding of residual symptom set seems to be expanding as research continues, the 'long haulers' will serve as a basis for denying coverage for certain diseases secondary to, (profitably) 'likely' derived from Covid - A Pre-existing Condition it is, then...

/first things first - cut that lame orange f*ck from the herd, and feed the f*ck to wolves
/VOTE
 
2020-09-30 4:17:31 AM  
Australia locks down whole states for a few infections!  This is not a casual thing, people that contract it are often faced with life time damage to their well being.  Let alone the simple fact that if you have contracted it and you go and see your grandparents then you are a c*nt!
 
2020-09-30 4:18:39 AM  
If there's any justice Trump will become infected 1 week after leaving the WH and he'll be dead a week after that. His kids will go bankrupt trying to pay off his debt.
 
2020-09-30 4:22:23 AM  

janzee: If there's any justice Trump will become infected 1 week after leaving the WH and he'll be dead a week after that. His kids will go bankrupt trying to pay off his debt.


NOOOOO!

He has to spend time in an orange jumpsuit - the amount of time is up for debate but if I do not see him wearing orange then ... ummm ... fark it I shall become a criminal as well and launder money through my businesses and take advantage of every person's weakness.

No I wont because I am not not a c*nt.
 
2020-09-30 4:23:59 AM  

Langdon_777: janzee: If there's any justice Trump will become infected 1 week after leaving the WH and he'll be dead a week after that. His kids will go bankrupt trying to pay off his debt.

NOOOOO!

He has to spend time in an orange jumpsuit - the amount of time is up for debate but if I do not see him wearing orange then ... ummm ... fark it I shall become a criminal as well and launder money through my businesses and take advantage of every person's weakness.

No I wont because I am not not a c*nt.


Oops one too many nots.
 
2020-09-30 6:01:35 AM  
Jesus is my immunity.
 
2020-09-30 7:33:45 AM  
Well they have to put the kids somewhere while the parents are busy making signs about killing journalists and attending GOP rallies.
 
2020-09-30 8:15:28 AM  

janzee: His kids will go bankrupt


just like dear ol' pappa
 
2020-09-30 8:15:51 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-30 8:54:54 AM  

Smirky the Wonder Chimp: According to some estimates, up to 90% of COVID cases suffer some form of permanent side effect as a direct result.


That was on the front page yesterday. It was a report of a report of an unpublished study based on sending a mail blast to COVID-19 victims and asking them if they're still suffering from symptoms or sequela.

Can you say "selection bias?" According to the report reported on, roughly 17% responded. Who do you think is more likely to respond? Those suffering sequela or those who feel fine?

So, yeah: Until published and peer reviewed, it's crap. It may well be crap after that, but until then, it's definitely crap. The situation is bad enough that we don't need to make up rumors.

Also, 73% of males who contract COVID-19 have their dicks fall off.

\ God, Florida would be in hyper-lockdown if that was true.
 
2020-09-30 9:08:02 AM  
My sister's ex decided to go to the freshly open bars a month ago and cought covid and is now in the ICU. Unfortunately not before passing it on to his kids during visitation.  So they passed it on to my sister and her husband.

Now the ex is still in ICU with a treacheotomy and my brother in law can't go up a flight of stairs without oxygen. Sure nobody died in my family but 2 people out of 5 have serious long term (possibly permanent health issues).

Kids can definitely catch and transmit the virus.
 
2020-09-30 12:20:21 PM  

"Gyrfalcon: saintstryfe: The black death plagued us for 500 years, and people still get infected to this day (though now it's relatively easily treated). No "Herd Immunity" ever developed.

That's because a population never can develop herd immunity to a bacterial disease, dear heart. The herd immunities only develop to diseases which trigger the body's immune response, namely viral diseases.

It's why there is no herd immunity to malaria (a parasite), cholera, salmonella, or E.coli. And it's why none of those diseases have preventative vaccines.

Try to understand germ theory before you pop off with comments like this."


You do know right that are multiple vaccines against bacterial disease like the Pneumococcal vaccine (akaPrevnar 13 and Prevnar 23) which protects you against the bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae.

There are also other vaccines against other bacterial infections like tuberculosis (Mycobacterium tuberculosis - bacteria), diphtheria (Corynebacterium diphtheriae - bacteria), tetanus (Clostridium - bacteria), pertussis (Bordetella pertussis - Bacteria), Haemophilus influenzae type B (Haemophilus influenzae type B - bacteria), cholera (Vibrio cholerae - bacteria), and typhoid - bacteria.

Hell the DTaP vaccine alone will protect against Diphtheria, Tetanus, and Pertussis all bacterial infections.

Also your wrong about there being no cholera vaccine as there is now a FDA approved vaccine for cholera called Vaxchora since 2016.
https://www.cdc.gov/cholera/vaccines.​h​tml

"Vaxchora is the only FDA-approved vaccine for the prevention of cholera."
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press​-​announcements/fda-approves-vaccine-pre​vent-cholera-travelers

Also I don't understand what you mean by bacterial infections not causing an immune response? Bacterial infections do cause an immune response and a good example of this is TB. If you had been infected in the past by TB your body would have mounted a cell-mediated immune reaction that while not antibody based is a immune response. In fact the TB skin test works by taking advantage of this to see a person has been infected with TB in the past by injecting purified protein derivative (PPD) and seeing if there is immune response.

I don't know what your job or training is but maybe you should try reading a little bit on immunology before you pop off with comments like this.
 
2020-09-30 1:39:52 PM  

mjjt: Realistically, the US has given up. There will be no effective measures - masks, distancing, hand washing, isolation - no matter who wins election.

So how many people have to die to attain herd immunity or until a vaccine widely available?

Shouldn't be too hard to calculate - how many people are dying per month x number of months (adjusted fore whether graph going up or down).

Short answer: at least half a million


Americans just aren't up for this "sacrifice" thing that seems to be all the rage in other countries.

It's a TikTok thing, right?
 
2020-09-30 1:40:52 PM  
Also, every time I hear "herd" immunity, I think of Perd.
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