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(Vox)   One more time, for people in the back   (vox.com) divider line
    More: PSA, Immune system, Infection, herd immunity, Vaccination, Epidemiology, New York City, term herd immunity, natural infection  
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1116 clicks; posted to Fandom » on 28 Sep 2020 at 10:01 PM (3 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



8 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2020-09-28 5:55:40 PM  
Herd Mentality will be the death of us all.
 
2020-09-28 6:33:13 PM  
For instance, at a recent Senate hearing, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) claimed that New York City has its outbreak under control thanks to herd immunity and the fact that around 22 percent of the city's residents had been infected.
But Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health, who was a panelist at the hearing, immediately spoke up to correct the senator: "If you believe 22 percent is herd immunity, I believe you're alone in that."


Rand Paul also believes he was named after a mentally-ill genius.  So, now he's a moron in tribute.
 
2020-09-28 10:36:50 PM  
Objection!

1)  R0 isn't only based on the virus but on how people behave.  We could have herd immunity at 0% if we were really serious about masks.

2)  If it's reached the point that R0 is .8 and you have a million cases you have 800k that catch it from them, but then you have 640k that catch it from the second group, 512k from that group, 409,600 from that group, for a total of 5,000,000 before it's finally gone.  (Although in practice you can probably the end of the tail off with enough contact tracing.  That's what China is doing--epic-level contact tracing and massive quarantine to stomp out any new outbreaks.)
 
2020-09-29 1:06:10 AM  
What I want explained is:  After all these years how does Vox still not support subscripts?
 
2020-09-29 1:41:30 AM  
A destructive trend affecting pop science in the last decade or so is "fast learners" jumping into science when only understanding about half or less of the core idea and then extrapolating and guessing and letting their imagination run wild with implications that people want to share and order their lives, etc. Because, after all, science is fun and mentos and Pepsi and MythBusters.

Look. Real science is boring. You can have fun with it if you pay your dues, but nobody pays their dues anymore. They do stunts. We are in the fake it til you make it terminal stage of intellectualism. Many more breakthroughs are announced than are achieved. Nobody even bothers to learn math.

So. Um. Thanks VOX, for clearing up things, sorta. And now people will forget what they have read and will go back to reinforcing their broken impressions of what they think VOX said. In my opinion, HERD IMMUNITY should not even be part of the COVID19 discussion at this point. Understanding it does not help anyone do anything. Does it? Yay science.
 
2020-09-29 2:00:30 AM  

Loren: Objection!

1)  R0 isn't only based on the virus but on how people behave.  We could have herd immunity at 0% if we were really serious about masks.


Objection!  Objector assumes facts not in evidence! Masks are great, but I have not heard of anyone making this claim, much less proving it. Sorry in advance for the wall of text.

So let me offer something about R0. Yes. it is true that the R DOES depend on behavior in addition to the virus, and before anyone gets too excited about that insight, let's remember how hard it is to change human behavior.

In scholarly work being done on COVID19, scientists spent some time trying to establish THE R0 for it. That is usually really difficult because with Ebola and other outbreaks, there are so few people to work with. The human behavior differences are usually assumed away for outbreaks. Things were different this time. Scientists found that R0 was virtually meaningless for all kinds of reasons.

Time passed and outbreaks expanded. Then researchers started trying to figure out R based on different policies, climate, etc. for certain periods. Japanese researchers have examined early school closures (Remember when the New York Times and various "Japan scholars" called them idiots for doing that?) and found that the Japanese policies were almost sufficient to push R below 1 all on their own, and very early. Scientists incorporated those ideas into the "paradigm" and moved on.

Research evolved. Researchers saw that some behaviors can have a strong effect on R. Japan stuck with masks, distancing, and no large groups and settled on those three things as sufficient, even when opening schools. It was a theory, but it was supported. It turns out that they were basically right. Apparently R has stayed low. Not below 1, because outbreaks continue, but still quite low.

Now research efforts are focusing on fine-tuning predictive models and allocating ICU and ventilators based on case data. Effectiveness has pretty well been nailed down, so efficiency is being examined in Japan. Treatments have improved, so maybe "zero new cases" is not a practical goal.

Those findings and the efforts which produced them have evolved. The research results were all "wrong" when they came out  because human behavior is a moving target. But you learn. What Japan did was to follow WHO guidelines and take appropriate measures early while advising people that more measures might be required. And that made all the difference.

Different policy flavors are also being tried around the world. Japan has used little testing, but very rigorous contact tracing, and stringent isolation. Masks, barriers, distancing, and other methods have made Japan more robust than most countries, and costs and damage have been kept low. Knowing WHY decisions were made is very interesting, and ... fascinating. Japan is not perfect, but they have finessed this.

And what results seem to show today is not so much that different strains of the virus have different R0, but that the behavior of people is having a much stronger effect on the R0 of COVID19. Some countries are managing that using best practices. Others are just throwing up their hands and guessing.

tldr  You dont have to make the claim that masks are all you need for herd immunity. You shouldnt. But researchers in some countries zeroed in on them early as "an important part of a complete breakfast."

/Personally, I am amazed and heartened at how quickly the world community has reacted and dealt with this difficult problem.
// With notable exceptions.
/// The world really has come a long way since 1918, when people were clueless through the whole thing. We know what is happening.... unfortunately, some people just do not care.
 
2020-09-29 10:09:54 AM  
My county hasn't hit double digit deaths yet, and our total percent population that have/had covid is around .69%

We are so far away from herd immunity it's like we aren't even trying, like NYC did.
 
2020-09-29 11:28:26 PM  

2fardownthread: Loren: Objection!

1) R0 isn't only based on the virus but on how people behave. We could have herd immunity at 0% if we were really serious about masks.

Objection! Objector assumes facts not in evidence! Masks are great, but I have not heard of anyone making this claim, much less proving it. Sorry in advance for the wall of text.

So let me offer something about R0. Yes. it is true that the R DOES depend on behavior in addition to the virus, and before anyone gets too excited about that insight, let's remember how hard it is to change human behavior.


Yeah, while we **could** have herd immunity now but it requires mask compliance of near 100%.  I would be amazed if that actually happens, though.  However, consider China--very aggressive contact tracing and quarantine, while there have been reinfections they successfully stamp them out.  That's behavior, it drives the R0 far below 1.
 
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