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(Centers for Disease Control)   Hey gang, hoping someone out there has a link to solid data on 2019 vs 2020 monthly/weekly morbidity. I'm in an battle with a guy I need to convince covid is real. This seems like the best way of showing it is. Since everything else is "tainted"   (cdc.gov) divider line
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287 clicks; posted to Discussion » on 24 Sep 2020 at 10:11 PM (10 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-09-24 7:02:42 PM  
Does this help?

It's also worth providing data of past death counts to show just how little they normally change from year to year.  I recently gathered these death totals from an admittedly arbitrary source:

2018: 2,839,205 (25702 from previous year)
2017: 2,813,503 (69255 from previous year)
2016: 2,744,248 (31618 from previous year)
2015: 2,712,630 (86212 from previous year)
2014: 2,626,418 (29425 from previous year)
2013: 2,596,993 (53714 from previous year)
2012: 2,543,279 (27821 from previous year)
2011: 2,515,458 (47023 from previous year)
2010: 2,468,435 (31272 from previous year)
2009: 2,437,163 (-34821 from previous year)
2008: 2,471,984 (48272 from previous year)
2007: 2,423,712 (-2552 from previous year)
2006: 2,426,264 (-21753 from previous year)
2005: 2,448,017 (50402 from previous year)
2004: 2,397,615 (-50673 from previous year)
2003: 2,448,288 (4901 from previous year)
2002: 2,443,387 (26962 from previous year)
2001: 2,416,425 (13074 from previous year)
2000: 2,403,351

Here's the thing, though:  I put these numbers in front of a COVID denier, a guy who insisted that the deaths this year weren't caused by COVID.  I pointed out that

1.  We never see an extra few hundred thousand deaths just by random chance.
2.  This year we are seeing extra deaths in the 6-figure range.
3.  They exactly coincide with the coronavirus outbreak, and peak when the outbreak peaks
4.  There is no other phenomenon that would suddenly kill 200,000 extra people for no reason.

Therefore

z.  This clearly must be caused by something, and the cause is very obviously COVID.

The guy still didn't accept it.  He said it wasn't caused by COVID.  I asked what else could have done it, and he basically said "causes."  I asked if he believes these extra deaths would have happened if there was no coronavirus outbreak, and he just rebooted his brain and started over.  There was no way to convince him.

On the other hand, I think it might have made some inroads with other people reading the thread.
 
2020-09-24 7:08:30 PM  
It's a cult. They cannot be convinced that they are wrong, and the harder you try, the harder they'll fight it. It's a lose-lose situation; just cut your losses and run away.
 
2020-09-24 7:22:44 PM  

Xcott: Does this help?


Everything helps. Yeah, I'm subby. I know that's bad form (for some reason), but I'm sorta desperate here. I hope you guys can forgive me. I hope someone out there has a link to a well annotated graph of 2019 deaths versus 2020 showing a 200,000+ increase in deaths (also, I wish it weren't necessary...............)

So my problem is I'm trying to make a difference in a world where Trump has really FUD'd up reality. Everyone reading this probably understands the situation.

The easiest way I think I can do it is just with raw math. Here are the number of people who died in July of 2019. Here are the number of people who died in 2020. It doesn't matter WHAT they died of, just that they died. And that's the way we can track the pandemic.

My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$. Nevermind that a coverup of that magnitude would be the biggest news sensation since Jesus rose from the grave. But, I need to confirm this. I think by doing this, I might change some minds. I'm naive that way. Hopefully naive. While that's still allowed...............

This should be trivial information to find. And to be honest, my google-fu is fairly strong (I'm at least a red belt). But it has proven to be not good enough to my great consternation.

So anyway, if you've got something bookmarked that could help, please post your link. Thank you in advance. Really. Thank you.
 
2020-09-24 7:23:14 PM  

jasonvatch: It's a cult. They cannot be convinced that they are wrong, and the harder you try, the harder they'll fight it. It's a lose-lose situation; just cut your losses and run away.


We have to try. We have to. :-(
 
2020-09-24 7:26:16 PM  

Destructor: Xcott: Does this help?

Everything helps. Yeah, I'm subby. I know that's bad form (for some reason), but I'm sorta desperate here. I hope you guys can forgive me. I hope someone out there has a link to a well annotated graph of 2019 deaths versus 2020 showing a 200,000+ increase in deaths (also, I wish it weren't necessary...............)

So my problem is I'm trying to make a difference in a world where Trump has really FUD'd up reality. Everyone reading this probably understands the situation.

The easiest way I think I can do it is just with raw math. Here are the number of people who died in July of 2019. Here are the number of people who died in 2020. It doesn't matter WHAT they died of, just that they died. And that's the way we can track the pandemic.

My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$. Nevermind that a coverup of that magnitude would be the biggest news sensation since Jesus rose from the grave. But, I need to confirm this. I think by doing this, I might change some minds. I'm naive that way. Hopefully naive. While that's still allowed...............

This should be trivial information to find. And to be honest, my google-fu is fairly strong (I'm at least a red belt). But it has proven to be not good enough to my great consternation.

So anyway, if you've got something bookmarked that could help, please post your link. Thank you in advance. Really. Thank you.


Got this thread favorited and appreciate the sub!
 
2020-09-24 7:27:14 PM  

Xcott: Does this help?


And thanks for the answer!
 
2020-09-24 7:40:33 PM  

Destructor: jasonvatch: It's a cult. They cannot be convinced that they are wrong, and the harder you try, the harder they'll fight it. It's a lose-lose situation; just cut your losses and run away.

We have to try. We have to. :-(


I don't deny that. But this guy thinks he's as smart as the President - and unfortunately, he's right. It's a failure of the educational system in the USA, which has been under attack for decades.

Make me President, and I'll declare that a healthy, educated populace is necessary for our National Defense.
 
2020-09-24 7:52:54 PM  

Destructor: My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$.


You could always put the guy on defense.  Dare him to name the last time the US death toll was at least 100,000 more than the previous year.   Give him some of this data and ask him how far back you have to go to see such a thing.  I'm guessing the Civil war.

Then present the extra deaths and say (1) what could have suddenly killed so many extra people in a single year, exactly in synch with the COVID outbreak?  And (2) does anyone seriously believe that without the coronavirus outbreak, all those extra deaths would have just happened as a statistical fluke?
 
2020-09-24 8:05:10 PM  
Ask him if he thinks pretty much every other country on the planet is in on this conspiracy.  Why would countries like France and the UK cause huge damage to their economies, and huge criticism of the leaders of those countries, to support a US conspiracy? Who does he think is behind this? Why?
 
2020-09-24 8:06:01 PM  

Destructor: jasonvatch: It's a cult. They cannot be convinced that they are wrong, and the harder you try, the harder they'll fight it. It's a lose-lose situation; just cut your losses and run away.

We have to try. We have to. :-(


Fark Independent gets confronted by the true face of American conservatism and now thinks at the eleventh hour that he can reason with Frankenstein's monster.

I mean, it's not really funny since this is the shiat that's going to kill us all, and you and people like you have enabled it into existence. But it's kind of funny.
 
2020-09-24 8:24:00 PM  
I don't know if this (or anything) would make a difference if he's that determined to deny reality, but you might also want to mention that it's not just about deaths. There are many, many, many thousands of people who have a "mild" (i.e., not requiring hospitalization) case at first, but go on to develop a whole host of symptoms afterwards with no definite progression or end date. They're called COVID long-haulers.

I'm one of them, and a recent estimate suggests there are upwards of 70,000 of us in the NY metro area alone.

Dr Fauci referred to long-haulers in his testimony before Congress yesterday: https://www.salon.com/2020/09/23/fauc​i​-cdc-senate-testimony-covid19-redfield​-guidance-shift-long-haulers-long-term​-side-effects/

Does he believe ebola is a hoax too? Because here's an article by a doctor who survived ebola and is seeing similar after effects in COVID patients: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health​/​covid-slow-recovery-long-hauler-compli​cations--/2020/09/18/73c2fd20-f45c-11e​a-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html

Is he a sports guy? If doctors can't sway him, perhaps football or baseball players will:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2​9​03903-houston-dl-sedrick-williams-says​-he-has-heart-complications-from-covid​-19

https://www.si.com/college/indiana/fo​o​tball/indiana-freshman-brady-feeney-se​riously-ill-covid-19

https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/08/01/edu​a​rdo-rodriguez-red-sox-out-for-season-c​ovid-19-heart-issue

I could go on and on, but this one hits close to home. I haven't been able to work since May and recently got let go from a job I gave my heart and soul to for five years. I don't blame my former employer -- they worked with and waited for me as long as they could. I blame the virus your friend doesn't believe in.
 
2020-09-24 8:33:05 PM  
Have you considered the idea that this dude is just a dumb asshole?
 
2020-09-24 8:33:12 PM  

hebrides: There are many, many, many thousands of people who have a "mild" (i.e., not requiring hospitalization) case at first, but go on to develop a whole host of symptoms afterwards with no definite progression or end date. They're called COVID long-haulers.


I know, I really know. But if I can prove beyond any sort of doubt, it might make a difference.

I hate belief. It gives rise to cults. But you have to have proof to convince people who understand the value of reason. I think that's what I'm dealing with here. I hope it is. It deserves a shot.
 
2020-09-24 8:36:22 PM  
It's the House MD quote of if you could reason with religious people there'd be not religious people, only replace
"religious" with "covid-denier". You could also use Trump-supporter, or Republican. Whatever.

No one is blinder than he who will not see.
 
2020-09-24 8:36:43 PM  

Shostie: Have you considered the idea that this dude is just a dumb asshole?


Hey listen. I'm a dumber asshole than a lot of people I know. I've made so many mistakes. So many. So many countless tears of regret....... They haunt me constantly... They can never be forgiven...... Never.

But, you know, you've got to do Right as you see the Right.

Right? :-)

Maybe, if I can salvage just one soul... Just one.... It might make a difference.

/And scene!
 
2020-09-24 8:38:13 PM  

Destructor: Shostie: Have you considered the idea that this dude is just a dumb asshole?

Hey listen. I'm a dumber asshole than a lot of people I know. I've made so many mistakes. So many. So many countless tears of regret....... They haunt me constantly... They can never be forgiven...... Never.

But, you know, you've got to do Right as you see the Right.

Right? :-)

Maybe, if I can salvage just one soul... Just one.... It might make a difference.

/And scene!


Well, in that case, good luck.
 
2020-09-24 8:40:34 PM  

Nidiot: Well, in that case, good luck.


I really need it. Thanks.
 
2020-09-24 8:47:52 PM  
This might sound like a weird question but...do you have a shovel?
 
2020-09-24 8:58:23 PM  

Destructor: But you have to have proof to convince people who understand the value of reason.


The problem is that this person clearly does not understand the value of reason. These people are brainwashed. Did he live? Thank God. Did he die? God willed it. It's a mental illness that has corrupted the brain's software.

Experience is the best way to convince someone. Take them to a place where people are dying of COVID. But for many good reasons, including privacy, it's a pretty difficult thing to do. Maybe get them to volunteer. Maybe watch a video. There are a few decent ones out there of people in a COVID ward.

But mostly, I would suggest you give up. Some people can't be reasoned with. My parents are like that - almost fully entrenched in their belief systems and their worldview.
 
2020-09-24 8:58:44 PM  

bdub77: This might sound like a weird question but...do you have a shovel?


And a quick lime pit. What are you getting after?

Also, fark mods, that was mighty nice of you to green this. Thanks.
 
2020-09-24 9:05:39 PM  

bdub77: Destructor: But you have to have proof to convince people who understand the value of reason.

The problem is that this person clearly does not understand the value of reason. These people are brainwashed. Did he live? Thank God. Did he die? God willed it. It's a mental illness that has corrupted the brain's software.

Experience is the best way to convince someone. Take them to a place where people are dying of COVID. But for many good reasons, including privacy, it's a pretty difficult thing to do. Maybe get them to volunteer. Maybe watch a video. There are a few decent ones out there of people in a COVID ward.

But mostly, I would suggest you give up. Some people can't be reasoned with. My parents are like that - almost fully entrenched in their belief systems and their worldview.


Naw, it's not like that.

Trump has FUD'd* up all information sources disturbingly well. So, if you provide a link to fairly solid information, the opposition can claim it's in the control of the enemy party.

(Political now: When Trump said he'd drain the swamp, he kept his promise and delivered. And then he replaced it with a vasty larger more pro-Trump swamp)

So if we can simply stick to first principles, I can convince him that the BS he's absorbing is.... well, BS. But I need something. Frankly, I can't even find decent biased numbers.

I think the problem is the CDC is hyperparticular on this stuff. They don't release shiat until they get the numbers exactly, 100% right.

The newest thing I could find that was close to accurate was 2018 mortality rates. 2 years old! But, maybe that's just the way it is.

________________
*Fear, uncertainty, and doubt. I want to be clear on this for all comers.
 
2020-09-24 9:06:55 PM  
Piss on their shoes and walk away.
 
2020-09-24 9:07:03 PM  

Destructor: And a quick lime pit. What are you getting after?


Obviously kidding. But seriously, if you have a strong connection to this person, it would be more useful if they were carefully introduced to a third party with firsthand experience, whether a doctor, nurse, nursing home caretaker, or someone who saw firsthand the damage that COVID has had. This takes the onus off of you to prove something, and provides another person with the opportunity to do the convincing.

When people see data they feel manipulated, then they feel a need to find something to back up their own side. Experience can sometimes bridge the divide.
 
2020-09-24 9:08:21 PM  

bdub77: Experience is the best way to convince someone.


I'm going to guess "experience" here is going to be either personally catching it or someone in their close immediate family doing so. And even then, there's a decent chance they won't be a long-hauler or dead, causing them to double down on the stupidity.
 
2020-09-24 9:10:01 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/co​v​id19/excess_deaths.htm

Select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and click Update Dashboard for this particular chart.

Estimated total number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020: 208,390 - 274,055
 
2020-09-24 9:13:06 PM  

Destructor: Nidiot: Well, in that case, good luck.

I really need it. Thanks.


Seconded. I've been there. Still try with certain people. It is rough and disheartening.

All I really got for you the knowledge that some random dude out in the world is cheering you on. Hoping for success.
 
2020-09-24 9:21:26 PM  

Destructor: Xcott: Does this help?

Everything helps. Yeah, I'm subby. I know that's bad form (for some reason), but I'm sorta desperate here. I hope you guys can forgive me. I hope someone out there has a link to a well annotated graph of 2019 deaths versus 2020 showing a 200,000+ increase in deaths (also, I wish it weren't necessary...............)

So my problem is I'm trying to make a difference in a world where Trump has really FUD'd up reality. Everyone reading this probably understands the situation.

The easiest way I think I can do it is just with raw math. Here are the number of people who died in July of 2019. Here are the number of people who died in 2020. It doesn't matter WHAT they died of, just that they died. And that's the way we can track the pandemic.

My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$. Nevermind that a coverup of that magnitude would be the biggest news sensation since Jesus rose from the grave. But, I need to confirm this. I think by doing this, I might change some minds. I'm naive that way. Hopefully naive. While that's still allowed...............

This should be trivial information to find. And to be honest, my google-fu is fairly strong (I'm at least a red belt). But it has proven to be not good enough to my great consternation.

So anyway, if you've got something bookmarked that could help, please post your link. Thank you in advance. Really. Thank you.


I'll play your adversary:

You: An extra 200,000 people have died since March 2020. What else could have caused that?

Adversary: The shut down. Depression, suicide, poor nutrition, masks that cause an excess of CO2 in the system. Plus, rioters killing each other and killing police. And how many of those are deaths from fires in the West started by Antifa?  Add all that up, and I bet you get your excess 200,000.

You: I give up.
----

Go ahead and give it a try. But don't go nuts if you feel like you are talking to a brick wall. Some people are too far gone. Wish I had a good cite for you, but I don't.
 
2020-09-24 9:31:57 PM  

Destructor: My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$.


I hear this one regularly. And I like my coworkers, but they are immune to science. I tried telling one woman that "cause of death" was an actual medical term. If someone had been obese and had high blood pressure for decades, then finally died because they caught covid, covid was the CAUSE OF DEATH. Obesity helped, but the cause of the person dying was the covid. It was a specific thing that the medical examiner was looking for- it was the CAUSE OF DEATH.

I don't think she heard me.
 
2020-09-24 9:36:46 PM  

hebrides: I could go on and on, but this one hits close to home. I haven't been able to work since May and recently got let go from a job I gave my heart and soul to for five years. I don't blame my former employer -- they worked with and waited for me as long as they could. I blame the virus your friend doesn't believe in.


I'm so sorry. I think I have some leftover symptoms myself. Yeah, I tell everybody that I had it, it was pretty bad, and it is quite real. Then they say, well, my friend got sick, but his wife didn't, so how bad can it be? And they'll keep saying that it's no big deal even if someone they know gets pretty sick. Because cult.
 
2020-09-24 9:46:44 PM  

centrifugal bumblepuppy: [Fark user image 850x429]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/cov​id19/excess_deaths.htm

Select "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19" and click Update Dashboard for this particular chart.

Estimated total number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020: 208,390 - 274,055


Thank you so much for this. I think this is the ticket.

Three Crooked Squirrels: Go ahead and give it a try. But don't go nuts if you feel like you are talking to a brick wall.


What kind of friend would I be if I didn't at least try? :-)
 
2020-09-24 9:49:36 PM  

cryinoutloud: hebrides: I could go on and on, but this one hits close to home. I haven't been able to work since May and recently got let go from a job I gave my heart and soul to for five years. I don't blame my former employer -- they worked with and waited for me as long as they could. I blame the virus your friend doesn't believe in.

I'm so sorry. I think I have some leftover symptoms myself. Yeah, I tell everybody that I had it, it was pretty bad, and it is quite real. Then they say, well, my friend got sick, but his wife didn't, so how bad can it be? And they'll keep saying that it's no big deal even if someone they know gets pretty sick. Because cult.


Thanks, and sorry to hear that you are dealing with after effects too. There are far too many out there, including far too many doctors, who dismiss long-haul COVID because it doesn't sync up with what the original (6-7 months ago) literature said "should" be the usual progression. Doctors are playing catch up now, and I'm very fortunate to have finally gotten connected with a few who understand. Feel free to message me if you have questions about other resources; we've all had to become our own experts. Hang in there. And yes, cult.
 
2020-09-24 9:53:34 PM  
I work with people who are exactly as you described, right down to the 'doctors are paid to write COVID on death certificates!' conspiracy theory. One of these bastards lost his father to the virus, and still thinks it's all blown out of proportion and that it'll all go away suddenly November 4th. AND he's become an anti-masker.

I admire your effort and your optimism, I really do. But you're basically ramming your head into a concrete wall. They will not change. No amount of evidence will change their minds.

Keep trying if you feel you must. But cut your losses before you start doing damage to yourself. Stress is cumulative and we're ALL already carrying high amounts, no sense in adding more.
 
2020-09-24 10:06:11 PM  

Arachnophobe: I work with people who are exactly as you described, right down to the 'doctors are paid to write COVID on death certificates!' conspiracy theory. One of these bastards lost his father to the virus, and still thinks it's all blown out of proportion and that it'll all go away suddenly November 4th. AND he's become an anti-masker.

I admire your effort and your optimism, I really do. But you're basically ramming your head into a concrete wall. They will not change. No amount of evidence will change their minds.

Keep trying if you feel you must. But cut your losses before you start doing damage to yourself. Stress is cumulative and we're ALL already carrying high amounts, no sense in adding more.


Have none of these people noticed that this virus is THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD?

I get many of us do hate Trump, but I'd find it more than a little preposterous to think everyone worldwide is in on one giant hoax performance piece for the benefit of American politics. Or is the idea of the existence of the rest of the world also a hoax? An illusion? The world is flat and only has the US on it?
 
2020-09-24 10:16:17 PM  

Nidiot: Arachnophobe: I work with people who are exactly as you described, right down to the 'doctors are paid to write COVID on death certificates!' conspiracy theory. One of these bastards lost his father to the virus, and still thinks it's all blown out of proportion and that it'll all go away suddenly November 4th. AND he's become an anti-masker.

I admire your effort and your optimism, I really do. But you're basically ramming your head into a concrete wall. They will not change. No amount of evidence will change their minds.

Keep trying if you feel you must. But cut your losses before you start doing damage to yourself. Stress is cumulative and we're ALL already carrying high amounts, no sense in adding more.

Have none of these people noticed that this virus is THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD?

I get many of us do hate Trump, but I'd find it more than a little preposterous to think everyone worldwide is in on one giant hoax performance piece for the benefit of American politics. Or is the idea of the existence of the rest of the world also a hoax? An illusion? The world is flat and only has the US on it?


Oh they have, but many of the more douchebag anti-COVID people fall back on pretty racist sh*t to explain away why e.g. South Korea is doing much better.
 
2020-09-24 10:22:13 PM  
Why would he believe any numbers you present when he already disbelieves everything else that's been published?
 
2020-09-24 10:28:07 PM  
You can not reason someone out of a position they did not reason themselves into.
 
2020-09-24 10:32:03 PM  

Three Crooked Squirrels: Destructor: Xcott: Does this help?

Everything helps. Yeah, I'm subby. I know that's bad form (for some reason), but I'm sorta desperate here. I hope you guys can forgive me. I hope someone out there has a link to a well annotated graph of 2019 deaths versus 2020 showing a 200,000+ increase in deaths (also, I wish it weren't necessary...............)

So my problem is I'm trying to make a difference in a world where Trump has really FUD'd up reality. Everyone reading this probably understands the situation.

The easiest way I think I can do it is just with raw math. Here are the number of people who died in July of 2019. Here are the number of people who died in 2020. It doesn't matter WHAT they died of, just that they died. And that's the way we can track the pandemic.

My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$. Nevermind that a coverup of that magnitude would be the biggest news sensation since Jesus rose from the grave. But, I need to confirm this. I think by doing this, I might change some minds. I'm naive that way. Hopefully naive. While that's still allowed...............

This should be trivial information to find. And to be honest, my google-fu is fairly strong (I'm at least a red belt). But it has proven to be not good enough to my great consternation.

So anyway, if you've got something bookmarked that could help, please post your link. Thank you in advance. Really. Thank you.

I'll play your adversary:

You: An extra 200,000 people have died since March 2020. What else could have caused that?

Adversary: The shut down. Depression, suicide, poor nutrition, masks that cause an excess of CO2 in the system. Plus, rioters killing each other and killing police. And how many of those are deaths from fi ...


Fark user imageView Full Size

Maybe you can adapt this to help. The ones who deny the existence of the virus piss me off the most.
 
2020-09-24 10:32:14 PM  

Xcott: Does this help?

It's also worth providing data of past death counts to show just how little they normally change from year to year.  I recently gathered these death totals from an admittedly arbitrary source:

2018: 2,839,205 (25702 from previous year)
2017: 2,813,503 (69255 from previous year)
2016: 2,744,248 (31618 from previous year)
2015: 2,712,630 (86212 from previous year)
2014: 2,626,418 (29425 from previous year)
2013: 2,596,993 (53714 from previous year)
2012: 2,543,279 (27821 from previous year)
2011: 2,515,458 (47023 from previous year)
2010: 2,468,435 (31272 from previous year)
2009: 2,437,163 (-34821 from previous year)
2008: 2,471,984 (48272 from previous year)
2007: 2,423,712 (-2552 from previous year)
2006: 2,426,264 (-21753 from previous year)
2005: 2,448,017 (50402 from previous year)
2004: 2,397,615 (-50673 from previous year)
2003: 2,448,288 (4901 from previous year)
2002: 2,443,387 (26962 from previous year)
2001: 2,416,425 (13074 from previous year)
2000: 2,403,351

Here's the thing, though:  I put these numbers in front of a COVID denier, a guy who insisted that the deaths this year weren't caused by COVID.  I pointed out that

1.  We never see an extra few hundred thousand deaths just by random chance.
2.  This year we are seeing extra deaths in the 6-figure range.
3.  They exactly coincide with the coronavirus outbreak, and peak when the outbreak peaks
4.  There is no other phenomenon that would suddenly kill 200,000 extra people for no reason.

Therefore

z.  This clearly must be caused by something, and the cause is very obviously COVID.

The guy still didn't accept it.  He said it wasn't caused by COVID.  I asked what else could have done it, and he basically said "causes."  I asked if he believes these extra deaths would have happened if there was no coronavirus outbreak, and he just rebooted his brain and started over.  There was no way to convince him.

On the other hand, I think it might have made some inroads with other people readi ...


The same thing holds true for AGW.  There's the rise in temps. There's the physics that shows what it would take to produce the rise in temps.

Deniers: natural variability.

Science: OK. What changed?

Deniers: natural variability.

Science: Of course, natural variability isn't a process or phenomenon of its own. Some force has to fluctuate within it's usual limits. Known physics says it's the increase in human source greenhouse gases. Particularly cO2. In fact, some forces are belownormal limits.

Deniers: natural variability.

Then you remember that people are automatons. Like Poe's Raven.
 
2020-09-24 10:41:00 PM  

bdub77: But mostly, I would suggest you give up. Some people can't be reasoned with. My parents are like that - almost fully entrenched in their belief systems and their worldview.


I disagree.  When you argue with some loon on the Internet, you're arguing for the benefit of a large, unseen audience.  If you clearly expose the loon as a loon, it makes a big difference to persuadable people who might have considered what they had to say.

In addition, I think a comprehensive debunking will still effect people who seem unconvinceable.   You may have someone who refuses to back down, but who still becomes painfully of how stupid they look, and how much work it is to remain a believer in the face of common sense.  People do get over such things, and you may convince that guy in the long term that being a nutcase isn't worth it.
 
2020-09-24 10:43:01 PM  

Nidiot: I get many of us do hate Trump, but I'd find it more than a little preposterous to think everyone worldwide is in on one giant hoax performance piece for the benefit of American politics. Or is the idea of the existence of the rest of the world also a hoax? An illusion? The world is flat and only has the US on it?


The moon landing was a hoax...... JFK assassination........satanic rituals being done in daycares, churches, and every wooded area bigger than a sandbox....people like this stuff.
And don't forget 9/11, aided by some of the original members of antifa.

/9/11 changed everything for antifa
 
2020-09-24 10:55:06 PM  

Xcott: You could always put the guy on defense.  Dare him to name the last time the US death toll was at least 100,000 more than the previous year.   Give him some of this data and ask him how far back you have to go to see such a thing.  I'm guessing the Civil war.

Then present the extra deaths and say (1) what could have suddenly killed so many extra people in a single year, exactly in synch with the COVID outbreak?  And (2) does anyone seriously believe that without the coronavirus outbreak, all those extra deaths would have just happened as a statistical fluke?


There was one other later death spike that definitely compares, and it was also caused by a pandemic... caused by a particularly nasty flu virus... and made far worse by people refusing to wear masks and avoid everything they're being asked to avoid now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish​_​flu
This not only further proves the point about the current death spike, but has the added bonus that it also dismisses the "oh, it's just a flu" idiots. The 1918 one WAS actually a flu, but an unusually deadly one.
 
2020-09-24 10:59:18 PM  
Perhaps point out that Fox News argues in court that Tucker Carlson isn't news at all.

Federal Judge Mary Kay Vyskocil found:
This "general tenor" of the show should then inform a viewer that he is not "stating actual facts" about the topics he discusses and is instead engaging in "exaggeration" and "non-literal commentary." ... . Fox persuasively argues ... that given Mr. Carlson's reputation, any reasonable viewer "arrive[s] with an appropriate amount of skepticism" about the statements he makes.

So the top-rated program on a news station cannot be reasonably expected to be taken seriously and "reasonable" viewers will be skeptical that his claims are not "actual facts." Perhaps this is a good legal argument to make, but it's a dreadful position to be in as a news organization.

Good luck pushing them out of Trump's field of lies.
 
2020-09-24 11:02:13 PM  

Destructor: Xcott: Does this help?

Everything helps. Yeah, I'm subby. I know that's bad form (for some reason), but I'm sorta desperate here. I hope you guys can forgive me. I hope someone out there has a link to a well annotated graph of 2019 deaths versus 2020 showing a 200,000+ increase in deaths (also, I wish it weren't necessary...............)

So my problem is I'm trying to make a difference in a world where Trump has really FUD'd up reality. Everyone reading this probably understands the situation.

The easiest way I think I can do it is just with raw math. Here are the number of people who died in July of 2019. Here are the number of people who died in 2020. It doesn't matter WHAT they died of, just that they died. And that's the way we can track the pandemic.

My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$. Nevermind that a coverup of that magnitude would be the biggest news sensation since Jesus rose from the grave. But, I need to confirm this. I think by doing this, I might change some minds. I'm naive that way. Hopefully naive. While that's still allowed...............

This should be trivial information to find. And to be honest, my google-fu is fairly strong (I'm at least a red belt). But it has proven to be not good enough to my great consternation.

So anyway, if you've got something bookmarked that could help, please post your link. Thank you in advance. Really. Thank you.


I feel your pain. Today I was trying to find straightforward numbers on Covid-19 R0 by county, by month or week. Just a simple farking chart, or table. I know the info is being collected (or at least that is what I've read) but nothing I input as a search term seems to find it. {Dons tin foil hat.} It's almost as if people are farking with the data, that it is there, but wrapped up in a zillion lines of babble.
 
2020-09-24 11:07:15 PM  

Xcott: Destructor: My adversary (so to speak) is blowing it off with stuff like "well, grandma died of cancer, and they're marking it as covid!!!1!" And that there is a massive conspiracy to hide what's really happening because Doctors and/or hosptial/health-care systems are paid to lie on Death Certificates for big Buck$$$.

You could always put the guy on defense.  Dare him to name the last time the US death toll was at least 100,000 more than the previous year.   Give him some of this data and ask him how far back you have to go to see such a thing.  I'm guessing the Civil war. Pandemic of 1918.

Then present the extra deaths and say (1) what could have suddenly killed so many extra people in a single year, exactly in synch with the COVID outbreak?  And (2) does anyone seriously believe that without the coronavirus outbreak, all those extra deaths would have just happened as a statistical fluke?


FTFY
 
2020-09-24 11:11:32 PM  

Carter Pewterschmidt: Ask him if he thinks pretty much every other country on the planet is in on this conspiracy.  Why would countries like France and the UK cause huge damage to their economies, and huge criticism of the leaders of those countries, to support a US conspiracy? Who does he think is behind this? Why?


(((SOROS!))) Is. Just. That. Good. And don't forget (((Bill Gates))). He has to get his zombie microchip mind controller implanted in everyone some way.
 
2020-09-24 11:35:08 PM  

cryinoutloud: Nidiot: I get many of us do hate Trump, but I'd find it more than a little preposterous to think everyone worldwide is in on one giant hoax performance piece for the benefit of American politics. Or is the idea of the existence of the rest of the world also a hoax? An illusion? The world is flat and only has the US on it?

The moon landing was a hoax...... JFK assassination........satanic rituals being done in daycares, churches, and every wooded area bigger than a sandbox....people like this stuff.
And don't forget 9/11, aided by some of the original members of antifa.

/9/11 changed everything for antifa



I don't know what we can do at this point. They have that little part of their brain that keeps them breathing even though in reality they are too stupid to be alive.
 
2020-09-24 11:38:14 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size

Imagine if they could see the virus among the crowd.
 
2020-09-24 11:43:46 PM  

Destructor: Shostie: Have you considered the idea that this dude is just a dumb asshole?

Hey listen. I'm a dumber asshole than a lot of people I know. I've made so many mistakes. So many. So many countless tears of regret....... They haunt me constantly... They can never be forgiven...... Never.


I have felt the same way. But understand something: In life there are innumerable paths. And very few of them are well lit and have truthful signposts. Most of them, in fact, are shrouded in fog and lie to us about where they go.

For each choice there are so many paths available. And all of them seem random, due to lack of knowledge and the fact that other humans (through their ignorance, or through laziness, or on purpose) distort your perception of the nature of those paths. And for each choice in your life, only one of those paths is the "right" one. Simply by random chance, most of your choices will be wrong. That, unfortunately, is called "being Human." The human mind is not entirely rational. It is mainly emotional, and always choosing the rational course is difficult.
I tried to say all this in the novel: "The Maze Race is metaphor for the Struggle of Life. The moral hallmark of civilization is commitment to dismantling the world's  death traps and dead ends, so that each Maze Racer in the  Maze of Life may more expeditiously travel their Path." - The martyred Universist Sage Dothallian


All we can each do is muddle forward, and be easy on ourselves. The mistakes can be forgiven, and the nidus for that is truly felt regret, newly discovered understanding, and a commitment to pass along the torch, regardless of how guttered and flickering it may be.

It's hackneyed and (some say) stupid, but Max Ehrmann's Desiderata is, in fact, true. Be easy with yourself. You're human, not a robot. shiat happens.
 
2020-09-25 12:05:53 AM  

Harlee: Destructor: Shostie: Have you considered the idea that this dude is just a dumb asshole?

Hey listen. I'm a dumber asshole than a lot of people I know. I've made so many mistakes. So many. So many countless tears of regret....... They haunt me constantly... They can never be forgiven...... Never.

I have felt the same way. But understand something: In life there are innumerable paths. And very few of them are well lit and have truthful signposts. Most of them, in fact, are shrouded in fog and lie to us about where they go.

For each choice there are so many paths available. And all of them seem random, due to lack of knowledge and the fact that other humans (through their ignorance, or through laziness, or on purpose) distort your perception of the nature of those paths. And for each choice in your life, only one of those paths is the "right" one. Simply by random chance, most of your choices will be wrong. That, unfortunately, is called "being Human." The human mind is not entirely rational. It is mainly emotional, and always choosing the rational course is difficult.
I tried to say all this in the novel: "The Maze Race is metaphor for the Struggle of Life. The moral hallmark of civilization is commitment to dismantling the world's  death traps and dead ends, so that each Maze Racer in the  Maze of Life may more expeditiously travel their Path." - The martyred Universist Sage Dothallian


All we can each do is muddle forward, and be easy on ourselves. The mistakes can be forgiven, and the nidus for that is truly felt regret, newly discovered understanding, and a commitment to pass along the torch, regardless of how guttered and flickering it may be.

It's hackneyed and (some say) stupid, but Max Ehrmann's Desiderata is, in fact, true. Be easy with yourself. You're human, not a robot. shiat happens.


I'd just like a personalised book that gets handed out at birth that tells you explicitly which path is the optimal one for you to take. Really simple advice along the lines of "do not go out with Simon, wait three years and you'll meet Adrian instead, at a bbq three houses down the road, on October sixth, make sure you go, wear the dress with the lace detail". I don't care what you call the book, "Life for Dummies" will do.
 
2020-09-25 12:38:07 AM  
Why waste your time? Data won't change their mind.
 
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