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(Rocket Launch Live)   Watch to see if Blue Origin has better luck with its 13th flight than Rocket Lab or Apollo had with theirs. Liftoff is at 11 AM ET Thursday. In unrelated news, it comes after 12   (rocketlaunch.live) divider line
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299 clicks; posted to Discussion » and Fandom » on 24 Sep 2020 at 10:15 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-09-24 8:13:59 AM  
Apollo 13 was the 24th total Apollo Mission and 8th crewed flight if you count Apollo 1. They cancelled the program before the 13th crewed flight.
 
2020-09-24 10:37:10 AM  
Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!
 
2020-09-24 10:56:39 AM  

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!


What's mind boggling is that Blue Origin is two years *older* than SpaceX.  SpaceX has more than a 100 launches of orbital class boosters, BO has a couple of suborbital hops and a contract to build engines for another company.  Even those engines won't fly before next year and they still haven't passed full testing.
 
2020-09-24 11:12:14 AM  
Pushed to 12:40 Eastern for better weather.

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!


I think they're still looking at a demonstration flight for New Glenn next year.  But yea, this seems more of a vanity project for Bezos so far.

ULA just took delivery of their first BE4 engine in July.  And I think that's only for testing and integration, so they'll need at least two more for the first Vulcan flight. I can't imagine ULA is very happy with Blue Origin's pace of progress.
 
2020-09-24 11:28:40 AM  

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!


Yeah, my Kerbal Space Program experience tells me that "reaching space" is basically a non-achievement. Yawn. You can almost do that with a farking balloon. Call me back when you can achieve orbit. Except these days you'll also need to recover at least your first stage to be notable.
 
2020-09-24 11:52:10 AM  
Still, it's a nice looking rocket and an amusing stunt.
 
2020-09-24 12:15:01 PM  
Huh. The feed disappeared.
 
2020-09-24 12:15:18 PM  

Glockenspiel Hero: Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!

What's mind boggling is that Blue Origin is two years *older* than SpaceX.  SpaceX has more than a 100 launches of orbital class boosters, BO has a couple of suborbital hops and a contract to build engines for another company.  Even those engines won't fly before next year and they still haven't passed full testing.


Bezos is playing the long game.
Unlike SpaceX, BO is a deadly serious rocket developer intent on taking ULA's place someday. Their goals are alot more grounded. They won't take the risks that SpaceX did, but they intend to arrive at the same destination.
....Eventually.

It's said that he who dares wins and SpaceX is an extremely daring company that does things most would not seem reasonable, but that's how they got to 100 flights and half as many booster landings. That risk also makes them prone to spectacular failures. Shotwell is as insane as her boss when it comes to gambling the house on new achievements.

I think that Blue Origin is shooting for more of a pre-max Boeing image of being hyper reliable. Bezos doesn't look like the kind who takes embarrassment well.   As a consequence the development will be painstakingly slow, but with the intent of appearing faultless when it flies.

That is a tall order because they aren't doing the falcon 1 to falcon 9 jump. They're going straight to a falcon heavy tier rocket. That takes alot of effort to do successfully right out of the gate.

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-24 12:19:59 PM  
Wah happen'??

Scrapped???  Video feed went dead.
 
2020-09-24 12:23:12 PM  

fallingcow: Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!

Yeah, my Kerbal Space Program experience tells me that "reaching space" is basically a non-achievement. Yawn. You can almost do that with a farking balloon. Call me back when you can achieve orbit. Except these days you'll also need to recover at least your first stage to be notable.


Consider this:

Amateur rocket builders built a rocket that hit the 100 km mark (the official "Yeah, this is space line").

https://www.newscientist.com/article/​d​n5005-first-amateur-rocket-blasts-into​-space

And they did it over 16 years ago.
 
2020-09-24 12:24:22 PM  

Orallo: Wah happen'??

Scrapped???  Video feed went dead.


Scrubbed for today, power supply issue.
 
2020-09-24 12:27:11 PM  

freidog: Orallo: Wah happen'??

Scrapped???  Video feed went dead.

Scrubbed for today, power supply issue.


i.imgflip.comView Full Size
 
2020-09-24 12:32:22 PM  
Blue Origin couldn't get their phallic shaped rocket to launch? there's a metaphor in there somewhere.
 
2020-09-24 12:42:32 PM  

way south: Glockenspiel Hero: Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!

What's mind boggling is that Blue Origin is two years *older* than SpaceX.  SpaceX has more than a 100 launches of orbital class boosters, BO has a couple of suborbital hops and a contract to build engines for another company.  Even those engines won't fly before next year and they still haven't passed full testing.

Bezos is playing the long game.
Unlike SpaceX, BO is a deadly serious rocket developer intent on taking ULA's place someday. Their goals are alot more grounded. They won't take the risks that SpaceX did, but they intend to arrive at the same destination.
....Eventually.

It's said that he who dares wins and SpaceX is an extremely daring company that does things most would not seem reasonable, but that's how they got to 100 flights and half as many booster landings. That risk also makes them prone to spectacular failures. Shotwell is as insane as her boss when it comes to gambling the house on new achievements.

I think that Blue Origin is shooting for more of a pre-max Boeing image of being hyper reliable. Bezos doesn't look like the kind who takes embarrassment well.   As a consequence the development will be painstakingly slow, but with the intent of appearing faultless when it flies.

That is a tall order because they aren't doing the falcon 1 to falcon 9 jump. They're going straight to a falcon heavy tier rocket. That takes alot of effort to do successfully right out of the gate.

[Fark user image 850x566]


Which is why I think they're actually a far riskier bet than SpaceX.

SpaceX was built on fast iteration with real world tests.  Merlin flew on F1 before it powered F9.  F9 has had at least 3 if not 4 major redesigns in its history, each building on the previous.  Dragon also has had multiple versions with actual flight testing.  Yes, SpaceX had some failures, but they learned quickly and fixed the bugs.  It looks insane to the ultra-conservative launch industry but it's normal practice in a lot of businesses

ULA's only "hyper-reliable" because the had all their accidents before becoming ULA- Delta especially had some truly spectacular failures.    Even with that they've had some luck- one of the recent Atlas launches had the engine shut down early and the launch only worked because Centaur is really capable. (And had all of 5 seconds of fuel left when they were done)   Boeing, half of the ULA, decided all up ground tests for Starliner weren't really necessary and had multiple failures that could have killed a crew.

Vulcan has never flown, the BE4 has never flown, both are clean sheet designs.  They'll probably work, but if I was an insurance adjustor I'd be charging a hell of a lot more to insure a ride on Vulcan than Falcon.
 
2020-09-24 12:51:51 PM  

way south: Unlike SpaceX, BO is a deadly serious rocket developer


Which is why Blue Origin has designed, tested, and flown zero orbital rocket designs while those jokers at SpaceX have done three, placed hundreds of payloads in orbit, and forced a tectonic shift in the launch market.  Because BO is so much more serious.

The problem with trying to appear hyper-reliable is that the only way to prove reliability is a lot of flights.  You can't show you're more reliable than your competitor by sitting on the ground while they rack up successes.
 
2020-09-24 12:57:07 PM  

Glockenspiel Hero: way south: Glockenspiel Hero: Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!

What's mind boggling is that Blue Origin is two years *older* than SpaceX.  SpaceX has more than a 100 launches of orbital class boosters, BO has a couple of suborbital hops and a contract to build engines for another company.  Even those engines won't fly before next year and they still haven't passed full testing.

Bezos is playing the long game.
Unlike SpaceX, BO is a deadly serious rocket developer intent on taking ULA's place someday. Their goals are alot more grounded. They won't take the risks that SpaceX did, but they intend to arrive at the same destination.
....Eventually.

It's said that he who dares wins and SpaceX is an extremely daring company that does things most would not seem reasonable, but that's how they got to 100 flights and half as many booster landings. That risk also makes them prone to spectacular failures. Shotwell is as insane as her boss when it comes to gambling the house on new achievements.

I think that Blue Origin is shooting for more of a pre-max Boeing image of being hyper reliable. Bezos doesn't look like the kind who takes embarrassment well.   As a consequence the development will be painstakingly slow, but with the intent of appearing faultless when it flies.

That is a tall order because they aren't doing the falcon 1 to falcon 9 jump. They're going straight to a falcon heavy tier rocket. That takes alot of effort to do successfully right out of the gate.

[Fark user image 850x566]

Which is why I think they're actually a far riskier bet than SpaceX.

SpaceX was built on fast iteration with real world tests.  Merlin flew on F1 before it powered F9.  F9 has had at least 3 if not 4 major redesigns in its hi ...


Any rocket design is going to have failures.  Rocket science is hard. The important thing is to run your tests and have your mistakes early before you are trying to lift critical payloads. Blue Origin is shoveling money to try and perfect a design and can do so because Bezos has decided he is willing to put up with it.  I guess that is a strategy, but I think Musk's strategy of rapid testing and going to market has worked out as SpaceX is generating revenue as well as customer confidence.  There is a track record that they can sell as a vendor that Blue Origin just doesn't have.
 
2020-09-24 12:57:43 PM  

way south: Glockenspiel Hero: Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Blue Origin - "All we do is launch unmanned suborbital rockets, recover them, and fly them again."

Blue Origin is Jeff Bezos' entry for "The World's Biggest Estes Model Rocket Program".

I mean, Damn!  I love Blue Origin, but C'mon, guys, let's see some farking progress!

What's mind boggling is that Blue Origin is two years *older* than SpaceX.  SpaceX has more than a 100 launches of orbital class boosters, BO has a couple of suborbital hops and a contract to build engines for another company.  Even those engines won't fly before next year and they still haven't passed full testing.

Bezos is playing the long game.
Unlike SpaceX, BO is a deadly serious rocket developer intent on taking ULA's place someday. Their goals are alot more grounded. They won't take the risks that SpaceX did, but they intend to arrive at the same destination.
....Eventually.

It's said that he who dares wins and SpaceX is an extremely daring company that does things most would not seem reasonable, but that's how they got to 100 flights and half as many booster landings. That risk also makes them prone to spectacular failures. Shotwell is as insane as her boss when it comes to gambling the house on new achievements.

I think that Blue Origin is shooting for more of a pre-max Boeing image of being hyper reliable. Bezos doesn't look like the kind who takes embarrassment well.   As a consequence the development will be painstakingly slow, but with the intent of appearing faultless when it flies.

That is a tall order because they aren't doing the falcon 1 to falcon 9 jump. They're going straight to a falcon heavy tier rocket. That takes alot of effort to do successfully right out of the gate.

[Fark user image 850x566]


Don't get me wrong - I *want* Blue Origin to succeed.  I'm thrilled that we have *both* SpaceX and Blue Origin, as 'counterweights' to each other.

It just gets frustrating watching Blue Origin's pace of progress losing a race against a tectonic plate.
 
2020-09-24 2:37:24 PM  
... So, with all this, does anyone know if the damn thing actually *flew* or not?

I would have tried to watch it, but I was woken up this morning by a phone call that the hospital was ready to release my best buddy (not COVID-19, Diabetic Ketoacidosis), so I booked up there to give him a ride home.  Then they farted around with the paperwork for four hours before deciding to keep him for another day.

Now I'm trying to catch up on my day job.
 
2020-09-24 2:39:13 PM  

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: ... So, with all this, does anyone know if the damn thing actually *flew* or not?

I would have tried to watch it, but I was woken up this morning by a phone call that the hospital was ready to release my best buddy (not COVID-19, Diabetic Ketoacidosis), so I booked up there to give him a ride home.  Then they farted around with the paperwork for four hours before deciding to keep him for another day.

Now I'm trying to catch up on my day job.


OK, breathe.  Cool yer jets, Nicholas.  Check the thread - it says right there scrubbed for today for a power issue.

Sorry, folks, got a lot on my mind.
 
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