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    More: Scary, Weather, Precipitation, degree Celsius, Meteorology, climate change problem, 2016, Global warming, Climate  
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4009 clicks; posted to Main » on 22 Sep 2020 at 7:54 PM (9 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

 
2020-09-22 10:05:44 PM  
4 votes:

Kolg8: Samsonite Swan, sorry to disappoint.  If it makes you feel better, here's a chart showing actual observed warming over 40 years, as measured by satellites, compared to the 102 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change when it made its dire predictions of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees celsius increase by 2100.

[Fark user image 850x478]
Herr Morgenstern, I'm not religious, and I'm actually agnostic.  In the absence of sufficient evidence, I choose not to form a belief.  I'm consistent with both my religion and my science that way.


That graph is by John Christy and that's the satellite measure of a part of a layer of the atmosphere. Those aren't surface anomalies. The current surface anomaly is around 1C and matches the models very closely. Current climate sensitivity estimates for the surface temperature is around 2C-2.5C per doubling of cO2. Relevant because 2C is a threshold for all kinds of bad things.

If there's a problem with current models of the troposphere it's curious, but we don't live in the troposphere. Models are improved all the time. I don't know how many are currently used. It's possible that Christy has just put every model that was ever written to make that graph. Be skeptical of your skeptics as well, eh? His assertion is that because this part of the models predict more than we've observed so discount all of AGW is a bit of a stretch. How to  account for the accuracy of the models for surface temps?

Skepticism has a shelf life because we all have shelf lives. Eventually, people use science to make decisions because science doesn't have an abstract existence. It's a human activity. When NASA was building rockets to put up satellites and spaceships, their models of rocketry were flawed. So, they improved their models. They didn't throw up their hands and say "rockets will never work."

Some scientists always have an axe to grind, and some of those axes are political as well. A lot of the early skepticism was by the same crowd that defended tobacco.  I remember a study that pointed out some anomaly about some place in the US that was cooling or something. It turned out that the scientist -- I'm remembering that it was Richard Lindzen but I could be wrong  -- had combed the record for some spot that had a peculiar record. His study was only applicable for that one area. It's called cherry picking. It's possible because the world is messy.

Christy's tropical troposphere issue gets trotted out all the time. Meanwhile, the surface temps keep climbing. Waiting for perfect knowledge is just a delaying tactic.
 
2020-09-22 7:55:41 PM  
4 votes:
Yeah, it's perfect for 2020.
 
2020-09-22 9:47:34 PM  
3 votes:

Kolg8: Samsonite Swan, sorry to disappoint.  If it makes you feel better, here's a chart showing actual observed warming over 40 years, as measured by satellites, compared to the 102 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change when it made its dire predictions of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees celsius increase by 2100.

[Fark user image 850x478]
Herr Morgenstern, I'm not religious, and I'm actually agnostic.  In the absence of sufficient evidence, I choose not to form a belief.  I'm consistent with both my religion and my science that way.


Ahhhh, I see the argument is shifting again:
"Global warming is false!"
"Well, maybe there's global warming... but humans have no impact!"
"I guess global warming is real and caused by humans... but it's not as bad as you thought it'd be!"
 
2020-09-22 9:20:32 PM  
2 votes:

Herr Morgenstern: Climate change deniers, like flat earthers, are mostly religious. They refuse to accept that their god would allow anything to happen to the Earth and its inhabitants that isn't part of the "divine plan". So to them, they can do anything to the Earth they want, God won't let the environment get bad enough to kill us.


End times dispensationalism: The "some idiot's rantings" from early Victorian England that would've been forgotten the way they deserve to be forgotten... if the American southern racists hadn't needed an excuse for chattel slavery.
 
2020-09-22 9:04:07 PM  
2 votes:

N3v3r5ubmit: Hell in this life
Hell in the next
Welcome to damnation everlasting
You know you've earned it
Embrace it


I do not know that. Give me the great fun times that earned me this shiat and I'd say fair 'nuff, but I didn't get those. I guess that too, is part of the punishment.
 
2020-09-22 9:04:06 PM  
2 votes:
Climate change deniers, like flat earthers, are mostly religious. They refuse to accept that their god would allow anything to happen to the Earth and its inhabitants that isn't part of the "divine plan". So to them, they can do anything to the Earth they want, God won't let the environment get bad enough to kill us.
 
2020-09-22 8:20:53 PM  
2 votes:
Hell in this life
Hell in the next
Welcome to damnation everlasting
You know you've earned it
Embrace it
 
2020-09-22 8:02:18 PM  
2 votes:
Pretty sure Australia regularly manages to have one part of the continent underwater while another part is on fire. It sucks.
 
2020-09-23 1:25:32 AM  
1 vote:

Samsonite Swan: Kolg8: Samsonite Swan, sorry to disappoint.  If it makes you feel better, here's a chart showing actual observed warming over 40 years, as measured by satellites, compared to the 102 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change when it made its dire predictions of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees celsius increase by 2100.

[Fark user image 850x478]
Herr Morgenstern, I'm not religious, and I'm actually agnostic.  In the absence of sufficient evidence, I choose not to form a belief.  I'm consistent with both my religion and my science that way.

Ahhhh, I see the argument is shifting again:
"Global warming is false!"
"Well, maybe there's global warming... but humans have no impact!"
"I guess global warming is real and caused by humans... but it's not as bad as you thought it'd be!"


The good news is, we haven't made it to "well there's nothing we can do about it, so we might as well learn to live with it".
 
2020-09-23 12:16:37 AM  
1 vote:
Exited an off ramp on I-10 at Laplace today and almost lost my car in high water with no escape route. Farking water in Lake Pontchartrain is faaaaaaaarking unbelievably high.
 
2020-09-22 10:03:50 PM  
1 vote:

Kolg8: Samsonite Swan, sorry to disappoint.  If it makes you feel better, here's a chart showing actual observed warming over 40 years, as measured by satellites, compared to the 102 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change when it made its dire predictions of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees celsius increase by 2100.

[Fark user image 850x478]
Herr Morgenstern, I'm not religious, and I'm actually agnostic.  In the absence of sufficient evidence, I choose not to form a belief.  I'm consistent with both my religion and my science that way.


Another thing worth noting on that graphic: perhaps the actual warming trends are lower because those energy policies were enacted.
 
2020-09-22 9:15:03 PM  
1 vote:
Samsonite Swan, sorry to disappoint.  If it makes you feel better, here's a chart showing actual observed warming over 40 years, as measured by satellites, compared to the 102 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change when it made its dire predictions of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees celsius increase by 2100.

Fark user imageView Full Size

Herr Morgenstern, I'm not religious, and I'm actually agnostic.  In the absence of sufficient evidence, I choose not to form a belief.  I'm consistent with both my religion and my science that way.
 
2020-09-22 8:50:18 PM  
1 vote:
No schitt?

Yet we still have people who don't believe it or lie about it: the idiots, the people in charge of the idiots, and those watching profit margins.
 
2020-09-22 8:28:54 PM  
1 vote:
Nice! Made it in before this thread gets shat on by the climate-change deniers/trolls!
 
2020-09-22 7:59:30 PM  
1 vote:
4.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size
 
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