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    More: Hero, Electric vehicle, Automobile, Renault, Electric car, Plug-in hybrid, Internal combustion engine, electric cars, Peak oil  
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2741 clicks; posted to Fandom » on 22 Sep 2020 at 5:50 PM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-09-22 1:02:26 PM  
My next car will be an EV.  I want to get one soon, but my hybrid is paid for and works fine, so it's hard to justify, because I'm cheap.
 
2020-09-22 5:57:22 PM  
The average home in the US uses 32 kWh per day. That would bring the cost of storage to run the house all day down to 3200 dollars instead of the current (heh) 32000 bucks. 10000 bucks would buy you quite a reserve for your solar system. It would be a game changer.
 
2020-09-22 5:59:54 PM  
For me, it's the charging times that need to be improved.

If they can come up with a battery swap system that could have you in and out of a station in less than 3 minutes, that would open me back up to EVs. Of course, there would need to be an entire system of such stations nationwide, but that's gotta be, what? a couple thousand bucks?
 
2020-09-22 6:04:33 PM  
Subby, it may not be 42, but I am keeping my towel with me just in case.
 
2020-09-22 6:12:23 PM  
Did they correct for inflation?

/I'm not talking about tires
 
2020-09-22 6:15:15 PM  

Russ1642: Did they correct for inflation?

/I'm not talking about tires


The Big Bang is still just a theory.
 
2020-09-22 6:15:43 PM  

KarmicDisaster: Russ1642: Did they correct for inflation?

/I'm not talking about tires

The Big Bang is still just a theory.


So is gravity.
 
2020-09-22 6:19:32 PM  
What was the question?
 
2020-09-22 6:29:24 PM  
Schoolhouse Rock #1 Three is a Magic Number
Youtube J8lRKCw2_Pk
 
2020-09-22 6:41:47 PM  

We Ate the Necco Wafers: For me, it's the charging times that need to be improved.

If they can come up with a battery swap system that could have you in and out of a station in less than 3 minutes, that would open me back up to EVs. Of course, there would need to be an entire system of such stations nationwide, but that's gotta be, what? a couple thousand bucks?


Charge times will come down, and they are coming down now.  I believe there are 150KW chargers that can give a Tesla more than 200 miles in less than an hour.  It's not parity with fossil fuels, but it's a far cry faster than than my 7KW charger.  And I believe 350KW is on the horizon.

I can't see a battery swap system becoming common place.  A lot of variables, the biggest being form factor.  Then there will be the inevitable bad battery swapped into a vehicle and all the rage that will come with that.
 
2020-09-22 6:53:35 PM  
I think the tipping point will be when you can take one on a road trip. Drive all day, plug in at the motel or the campground, drive all the next day. If I can't do that, everything in TFA is completely irrelevant to when I'd consider it.
 
2020-09-22 6:53:46 PM  
Electric heat takes a lot of juice. I need to know I'm not going to have to choose between getting where I'm going and my fingers going numb in Minnesota.
 
2020-09-22 6:59:23 PM  
It should also be worth noting you can't just plug these things into an outlet. My aunt and uncle were trying to get a hub installed so they can charge at home. I think the pricetag was around $12k. That will change in the future, but our infrastructure needs a bit of an overhaul before EVs outpace petrol.
 
2020-09-22 7:01:32 PM  
47?
 
2020-09-22 7:05:40 PM  
It's not like you see electric cars every where all the time.


This guy's never been to Northern Virginia or California.
 
2020-09-22 7:06:43 PM  

Hoopy Frood: I think the tipping point will be when you can take one on a road trip. Drive all day, plug in at the motel or the campground, drive all the next day. If I can't do that, everything in TFA is completely irrelevant to when I'd consider it.


Username and thread title check out.
 
2020-09-22 7:10:59 PM  

KarmicDisaster: The average home in the US uses 32 kWh per day. That would bring the cost of storage to run the house all day down to 3200 dollars instead of the current (heh) 32000 bucks. 10000 bucks would buy you quite a reserve for your solar system. It would be a game changer.


I'm more interested in  that than for EVs. If I can go totally off grid with a system that has a less than 5 year payback, I'd consider that a major breakthrough
 
2020-09-22 7:11:30 PM  
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2020-09-22 7:28:31 PM  

KarmicDisaster: The average home in the US uses 32 kWh per day. That would bring the cost of storage to run the house all day down to 3200 dollars instead of the current (heh) 32000 bucks. 10000 bucks would buy you quite a reserve for your solar system. It would be a game changer.


Hmm. 32 kWh per day, assuming greater use during daylight hours, let's call that 24 kWh during 7 am to 5 pm. Ten hours. So 2.4 kW per hour when there is daylight. And let's assume that solar panels will only produce 33% of their rated capacity because of clouds and rain and snow.

Based on those conservative assumptions, you could have a 7.2 kW PV solar system, which is only about 25 panels these days. It would meet or exceed all of the average household's daytime needs. And for that extra 8 kWh per day that you have to use at night? You could use a battery, or not. You could just pay for the grid electricity using the proceeds of what your utility will pay you for all the excess solar electricity you will generate.

So the game changer you are hoping for has existed for at least the last ten years. Guess what. No takers. The article is trying to get people excited about battery prices, but for home batteries, it does not mention all the ancillary costs of home battery installation, permits, utility approval, charge/discharge scheduling, depreciation, replacement, falling capacity, etc.
 
2020-09-22 7:29:25 PM  

GodComplex: It should also be worth noting you can't just plug these things into an outlet. My aunt and uncle were trying to get a hub installed so they can charge at home. I think the pricetag was around $12k. That will change in the future, but our infrastructure needs a bit of an overhaul before EVs outpace petrol.


Level 1 charges can be purchased for a few hundred dollars, and plug into 120V.  You can get a ChargePoint charger on Amazon for $700, the rub is you need an available NEMA 14-50 outlet so having an electrician install one may get spendy.

This information only valid in the US.
 
2020-09-22 7:30:45 PM  

Hoopy Frood: I think the tipping point will be when you can take one on a road trip. Drive all day, plug in at the motel or the campground, drive all the next day. If I can't do that, everything in TFA is completely irrelevant to when I'd consider it.


Plug in hybrid. Welcome to the future.
 
2020-09-22 7:33:49 PM  
I think I will call this "the new Green journalism." Get ready to read IF, COULD, WOULD, MAY, and EXPECT about 80 times for every five paragraphs.

Roughly summarized, the article states a problem that is a decade or more old. Then it says that Elon Musk will make some announcement in the near future. A few IFs and COULD BEs and MIGHT BEs follow. Then skeptics are quoted, giving hard numbers and reasonable critiques.

But they miss the big picture because IF, and IF, and COULD BE. And then Padri Srinivasathan, the Senior Vice President of some think tank with a vaguely green title I have never heard of gives some vague predictions and cautions people against believing someone else's numbers, when they SHOULD be thinking in vaguer terms. And make those bullet points. Then add a couple of COULD BEs and MAYBEs and tie it to fossil fuel news somehow.

Then send it along to the .... editor? People love this stuff. I am perpetually entertained by imagining Volkswagen and GM introducing their lines of 20+ EVs in four years, or whatever. Or ten. Ah. A brighter world. I would settle for a world where people can use math, and "believe" in it. Or a world without collective amnesia.

There are plenty of GREEN things that people can do entirely for FREE, and they still do not do them.
Less cynical post to follow.
 
2020-09-22 7:56:54 PM  

KarmicDisaster: The average home in the US uses 32 kWh per day. That would bring the cost of storage to run the house all day down to 3200 dollars instead of the current (heh) 32000 bucks. 10000 bucks would buy you quite a reserve for your solar system. It would be a game changer.



So what is a 32 kWh battery system really worth? Does anyone really do the math? I doubt it. I seriously doubt it.

Would a 3200 dollar system really be a game changer? Let's say your grid electricity is 10 cents per kWh. But you are really smart, so you put in a SOLAR PV system on your roof and you can generate some amount of electricity for 7 cents an hour after you pay for all the financing, fees, installation, depreciation, and say insurance or other risk mitigation. OK. So you can save 3 cents per kWh if you generate AND store AND use 100% of it. AND let's assume you can do that every single day of the year.

Hypothetical, I know, but really quite generous. I am assuming above NO installation costs for the battery. Nothing above has anything to do with the battery. You could have the system above and just pocket the money, but let's couple a battery to it, for the game changer.

That will, ideally, give you a 96 cent per day return. So for 3200 dollars, that would require 3072 days, or 8 years and 5 months. So if they make a battery that can keep 100% of its charge/recharge capability for 10 years before becoming useless, you will have enough money saved up to buy a new battery for the next ten years.

There is your game changer.

If you don't generate enough to charge the battery, or if the battery degrades, or if you don't use the full capacity of the battery, you won't even make those numbers. And remember that special costs for the battery for installation, insurance, fees, tax, etc. are not included.
 
2020-09-22 8:21:20 PM  

GodComplex: It should also be worth noting you can't just plug these things into an outlet. My aunt and uncle were trying to get a hub installed so they can charge at home. I think the pricetag was around $12k. That will change in the future, but our infrastructure needs a bit of an overhaul before EVs outpace petrol.


Counterpoint:  yes you can, it's just a slow charge.  It will add 3-4 miles of range per hour from a standard 110V outlet, so depending on your usage it may or may not be practical.
 
2020-09-22 9:26:28 PM  

2fardownthread: Hoopy Frood: I think the tipping point will be when you can take one on a road trip. Drive all day, plug in at the motel or the campground, drive all the next day. If I can't do that, everything in TFA is completely irrelevant to when I'd consider it.

Plug in hybrid. Welcome to the future.


I mean fully electric, and I think that's what TFA was intending unless I skimmed over something - replacing rather than supplementing gas/diesel engines.
 
2020-09-23 12:37:12 AM  
Yea, but 42 would be great too. We'll get there
 
2020-09-23 1:49:07 AM  
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Now appearing on freeways near you.
 
2020-09-23 3:07:57 AM  

Hoopy Frood: 2fardownthread: Hoopy Frood: I think the tipping point will be when you can take one on a road trip. Drive all day, plug in at the motel or the campground, drive all the next day. If I can't do that, everything in TFA is completely irrelevant to when I'd consider it.

Plug in hybrid. Welcome to the future.

I mean fully electric, and I think that's what TFA was intending unless I skimmed over something - replacing rather than supplementing gas/diesel engines.


OK. My neighbor has been doing that in his LEAF for about 7 years. Retired. Charger networks. I think the big one was CHargeDeGo. So. Uh. Welcome to the future. That is Japan, but I expect the US has charge networks. The US seems to be keeping up.

This reinforces my point above that people expect technologies to meet many hurdles that have already been reached, surmounted, and passed. People simply do not want to change, even if it is nearly costless, or actually costless. Expecting big batteries to be the holy grail, however, is really a stretch.
 
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