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(Guardian)   Good news: US jobless claims drop sharply. Bad news: as government changes counting method   (theguardian.com) divider line
    More: Facepalm, Unemployment, Business cycle, Great Depression, US labor department, unemployment benefits, last week, number of people, labor department  
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1161 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Sep 2020 at 12:20 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



34 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-09-03 10:43:23 AM  
Babylon 5 - Voices Of Authority (Restaurant Conversation)
Youtube OKL_I4pJs84

/IT'S NOT A GODDAMN INSTRUCTION MANUAL
 
2020-09-03 11:00:01 AM  
You could rerun this with COVID cases instead of unemployment and it would still work.
 
2020-09-03 11:00:26 AM  

I Ate Shergar: [Youtube-video https://www.youtube.com/embed/OKL_I4pJ​s84?start=54]
/IT'S NOT A GODDAMN INSTRUCTION MANUAL


Nice B5 reference!
 
2020-09-03 11:59:56 AM  
Well of course they are. The non-tested COVID cases will take out the unreported unemployed. It's all by design. So much winning!
 
2020-09-03 12:22:26 PM  
So Trump is doing what he accused the durty demonrats and Obama of doing when he ran in 2016? I'm shocked that this again shows: Every accusation is a confession...
 
2020-09-03 12:25:45 PM  
Gaslighting continues. Vote in November.
 
2020-09-03 12:27:48 PM  
Changing the rules in the middle of the third quarter. It's the Trumpian Republican Trumpian way.

/ they are one and the same
 
2020-09-03 12:28:52 PM  
So they're cooking the books, and still came up with 881,000?  They are extraordinarily bad at this game.
 
2020-09-03 12:29:03 PM  

inglixthemad: So Trump is doing what he accused the durty demonrats and Obama of doing when he ran in 2016? I'm shocked that this again shows: Every accusation is a confession...


At this point, based on his own accusations, it's entirely safe to assume that Trump spied on the Obama campaign, wiretapped phones, committed known treason, founded ISIS, and probably has a fraudulent birth certificate.
 
2020-09-03 12:34:52 PM  
So they changed the 'model' used to average out the numbers. I am sure this will be widely accepted and generate no controversy unlike when the Obama administration simply said that the U6 number was a better view of long term unemployment rather than the U3 numbers.
 
2020-09-03 12:35:02 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-09-03 12:35:07 PM  

inglixthemad: So Trump is doing what he accused the durty demonrats and Obama of doing when he ran in 2016? I'm shocked that this again shows: Every accusation is a confession...


To be fair, he (and other Republicans) accused Obama of doing it in 2012, also. I actually recall reading a government jobs report that year that was claimed, by Republicans, of using misleading data to help Obama's re-election chances.
 
2020-09-03 12:36:40 PM  
I have a simple, consistently correct rule of thumb: all republicans are amoral, pathological liars incapable of ever speaking or even knowing truth.

For the last four years, it has never been wrong.
 
2020-09-03 12:37:13 PM  

I Ate Shergar: [iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/OKL_I4pJ​s84?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3​A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=54&enablejsa​pi=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com​&widgetid=1]
/IT'S NOT A GODDAMN INSTRUCTION MANUAL


Between that episode and the DS9 two-parter 'Past Tense', you really have to wonder how many right wingers and Republicans were furiously taking notes watching them (along with probably masturbating furiously at the suffering shown/talked about).
 
2020-09-03 12:38:07 PM  
Changing the method of determining unemployment.  I think this is being done to confuse the public. Now either side can claim the number is good or bad and the public won't know who to believe. Gaslighting 101.
 
2020-09-03 12:49:31 PM  

runwiz: Changing the method of determining unemployment.  I think this is being done to confuse the public. Now either side can claim the number is good or bad and the public won't know who to believe. Gaslighting 101.


Not the first time this has happened, and it likely won't be the last.

Now that everyone's horizons have shrunk due to COVID, it's strange how different people are experiencing the economy. In my circle of friends and family you would hardly know that there was a near-depression as everyone is either an essential worker or has a white collar job they are doing from home. During the Great Recession, I knew many people who were out of work, including people in professional and white collar positions.
 
2020-09-03 12:49:58 PM  

I Ate Shergar: [iFrame https://www.youtube.com/embed/OKL_I4pJ​s84?autoplay=1&widget_referrer=https%3​A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com&start=54&enablejsa​pi=1&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fark.com​&widgetid=1]
/IT'S NOT A GODDAMN INSTRUCTION MANUAL



good luck to you captain.... your about to go where everyone has been before.

LOL

im actually re watching the entire series .. again.. for the 10,000th time.  and am close to that very episode

great sci fi
 
2020-09-03 12:55:10 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: [Fark user image image 604x608]


Just saw a bit on tv about this chart.
They're comparing this to W's recession in 2008.
Here we go again.
 
2020-09-03 12:55:46 PM  

runwiz: Changing the method of determining unemployment.  I think this is being done to confuse the public. Now either side can claim the number is good or bad and the public won't know who to believe. Gaslighting 101.


If you wanted to be transparent and up front about changing the calculation, you'd go back and revise all the previous months as well.

(Not you, you...them, you.)
 
2020-09-03 12:58:02 PM  
They're calling the new UE-X the "UFIA".
 
2020-09-03 1:00:29 PM  

jerryskid: I have a simple, consistently correct rule of thumb: all republicans are amoral, pathological liars incapable of ever speaking or even knowing truth.

For the last four years, it has never been wrong.


Just the past four years? How about the past 60 years? It's just be demonstrated more vociferously these past four years.
 
2020-09-03 1:09:23 PM  
You can't file for unemployment if you're dead.

Brilliant strategy!
 
2020-09-03 1:21:35 PM  

dericwater: jerryskid: I have a simple, consistently correct rule of thumb: all republicans are amoral, pathological liars incapable of ever speaking or even knowing truth.

For the last four years, it has never been wrong.

Just the past four years? How about the past 60 years? It's just be demonstrated more vociferously these past four years.


The past four years is when they gave up trying to hide it in any way
 
2020-09-03 1:22:26 PM  

dywed88: dericwater: jerryskid: I have a simple, consistently correct rule of thumb: all republicans are amoral, pathological liars incapable of ever speaking or even knowing truth.

For the last four years, it has never been wrong.

Just the past four years? How about the past 60 years? It's just be demonstrated more vociferously these past four years.

The past four years is when they gave up trying to hide it in any way


Now I realize I misread your second sentence and just repeated what you said.

Sorry.
 
2020-09-03 1:31:22 PM  
did they put in the estimate for prostitution and cocaine sales into the gdp figures yet ? you know it's comming.
 
2020-09-03 1:58:39 PM  
*checks DJIA* Huh. It looks like the market is down more than 2% right now, which means it reacted predictably to bad economic news. That hasn't happened in months.
 
2020-09-03 2:21:52 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: [Fark user image 604x608]


-expletive-

Well, that's going to f**k with us for a loonnngggg time.
 
2020-09-03 2:23:29 PM  

dericwater: jerryskid: I have a simple, consistently correct rule of thumb: all republicans are amoral, pathological liars incapable of ever speaking or even knowing truth.

For the last four years, it has never been wrong.

Just the past four years? How about the past 60 years? It's just be demonstrated more vociferously these past four years.


If I extended it to 60 years, I would have to write that I was seldom wrong, rather than never.  For example, nixon said he was resigning and he did, so he didn't lie then; gw said "watch this swing", and he swung, so that wasn't a lie.  Other than that, I'm kind of tapped.
 
2020-09-03 2:45:32 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
DVD
2020-09-03 3:12:54 PM  
Didn't Trump have the VA do the same kind of thing regarding veteran suicides?  They changed who counted as a 'veteran' in order to make the number of suicides look lower.
 
2020-09-03 3:52:56 PM  

Soup4Bonnie: runwiz: Changing the method of determining unemployment.  I think this is being done to confuse the public. Now either side can claim the number is good or bad and the public won't know who to believe. Gaslighting 101.

If you wanted to be transparent and up front about changing the calculation, you'd go back and revise all the previous months as well.

(Not you, you...them, you.)


More accurately, when you present the new number using a significantly different method (as in the method makes a significant difference) you would provide a detailed analysis of the differences and for the current and relevant comparison periods (2020 to date and the last several August's) you would provide both figures. You would then present both datasets for at least several months.
 
2020-09-03 4:34:27 PM  

Bovine Diarrhea Virus: So they're cooking the books, and still came up with 881,000?  They are extraordinarily bad at this game.


Nobody is 'cooking the books'. These kinds of adjustments are common and happened a number of times during Obama's administration (particularly early on).  RWNJs were constantly braying "COOKING THE BOOKS" during Obama's admin and everyone here mocked them for being idiots.   If they were really cooking the books would they still report nearly 900k new claims?  I don't think so.

Don't be like RWNJs.
 
2020-09-03 4:43:57 PM  
Hey guys!  Remember when the Labor Force Participation Rate was totally so important?


Fark user imageView Full Size

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

/Good times.
 
2020-09-03 5:36:45 PM  

theknuckler_33: Bovine Diarrhea Virus: So they're cooking the books, and still came up with 881,000?  They are extraordinarily bad at this game.

Nobody is 'cooking the books'. These kinds of adjustments are common and happened a number of times during Obama's administration (particularly early on).  RWNJs were constantly braying "COOKING THE BOOKS" during Obama's admin and everyone here mocked them for being idiots.   If they were really cooking the books would they still report nearly 900k new claims?  I don't think so.

Don't be like RWNJs.


Considering the efforts by this administration to skew numbers and "errors" that have just happened to creep into their calculations, there is good reason to be skeptical.

There are always small tweaks to calculation methods but I never saw anything under Obama that was a significant change.

There may be good reasons to adjust calculations in this unprecedented situation, but the administration does not get the benefit of the doubt due to its historical actions especially with the change coming two months out from the election.

In this case, 880,000 sounds bad on its own, so why fudge things to get that? Well we need context. That number sounds a hell of a lot better than over 1,000,000, just like stores pricing things at $9.99 getting it down to six figures will have a big psychological impact, and a decrease of over 10% vs no significant change is a big deal. This size of change also sounds plausible. If they had put out a number like 500,000, all but the derpiest people would have laughed at it as an absurdity.
 
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