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(MSN)   Things you don't want to see in a research paper: "This unfortunate state of affairs could reduce the life expectancy of our entire species"   (msn.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Influenza, Life expectancy, new research paper, Common cold, Juan B. Gutierrez, Vaccine, San Antonio, mathematics professor  
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1643 clicks; posted to Fandom » on 13 Aug 2020 at 10:55 PM (15 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



17 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2020-08-13 11:01:53 PM  
No offense!
 
2020-08-13 11:09:59 PM  
The suggestion that a vaccine might not be completed in my lifetime is just as bad.

Imagine Social Security going back to being profitable for the government because average lifespan drops...

Imagine an economy that deals with a constant rolling pandemic...

Imagine the level of permanently unemployed people that creates...

Imagine Margaret Thatcher naked on a cold day...

Imagine never having another concert/crowded event...
 
2020-08-13 11:55:25 PM  
"I will applaud and celebrate when we have a vaccine. But for 50 years, the vaccine against malaria has been around the corner. For 50 years, the vaccine against the common cold is almost there," he said.

That's a pretty stupid sentence for a medical researcher to write. Wait, no, the guy's a mathematician. Malaria is caused by a protozoan, not a virus. The common cold is caused by over 200 different viruses. The current situation really isn't comparable.
 
2020-08-14 12:24:10 AM  
Stupidity kills. Unfortunately it often kills people who aren't stupid. Honestly though humanity has been farking itself for centuries and the bill will come due eventually. Most people didn't expect it to be so soon.
 
2020-08-14 12:29:02 AM  
Personally, I find the confidence that a vaccine will be found and usable within this extremely short timeframe that keeps getting talked about, to be completely unfounded. We've never made a vaccine that fast before.

And we know quarantine works. We could eliminate this virus in a month. We could have eliminated this virus months ago.

Well, on we march, relying on hope and faith instead of science. So stupid.
 
2020-08-14 12:32:36 AM  
More than six months ago it was already being spelled out by top thinkers for the whole world to assimilate and understand:

1) this is not a small, containable problem, it is in fact a permanent world-changing event
2) there are no fast, easy fixes and quarantining could/should have gone from February 2020 probably well into late December 2021 or so, as there is really no such thing as a quick fix vaccine, if there will ever be one,
3) people are going to have to *permanently alter* many aspects of their daily life and existence and routines indefinitely in order to prevent the spread and preserve social integrity

No one wanted to hear this. Clearly around the world no one wanted to be inconvenienced for the short term to help the entire world for the long haul, and now its just too damned late: the window of opportunity has closed, the door slammed shut, the ability to be minorly inconvenienced for a short period has now morphed into 'we are all going to pay the worst penalty for the long haul.  Once again when given the opportunity to choose between the right way and the wrong path, the human race has failed to do the right thing and chosen poorly as always. The legacy of humanity for all of history is failure and falling short, every single time.

Now our new normal will be the slippery slope into chaos and anarchy and the worst parts of the Bible. The few voices who cried out for better were ignored to the peril of all.
 
2020-08-14 12:56:35 AM  

hissatsu: "I will applaud and celebrate when we have a vaccine. But for 50 years, the vaccine against malaria has been around the corner. For 50 years, the vaccine against the common cold is almost there," he said.

That's a pretty stupid sentence for a medical researcher to write. Wait, no, the guy's a mathematician. Malaria is caused by a protozoan, not a virus. The common cold is caused by over 200 different viruses. The current situation really isn't comparable.


Came here to say this. I don't doubt their math; I have serious questions about the assumptions that informed their math. That they don't appear to understand the common cold undermines their credibility tremendously.
 
2020-08-14 1:03:51 AM  

starsrift: Personally, I find the confidence that a vaccine will be found and usable within this extremely short timeframe that keeps getting talked about, to be completely unfounded. We've never made a vaccine that fast before.

And we know quarantine works. We could eliminate this virus in a month. We could have eliminated this virus months ago.

Well, on we march, relying on hope and faith instead of science. So stupid.


Got anything other than "we've never done it that fast before"? Looking at the data published so far, I think your pessimism is ill founded. We're benefitting from all the basic biology research.

The rubella vax was 4 years in development. That was in the '60s. Computers took entire rooms, we couldn't sequence DNA, immunology textbooks were, comparatively speaking, pamphlets. It's obviously no guarantee, but it's also means we might be faster at stuff.
 
2020-08-14 1:04:14 AM  
Enough about TV.
 
2020-08-14 1:20:14 AM  
A non-peer reviewed paper written by someone who seems more interested in sensational phrasing than actually understanding the topic?

Someone's fishing for a grant, methinks
 
2020-08-14 2:48:29 AM  

PhoenixFarker: starsrift: Personally, I find the confidence that a vaccine will be found and usable within this extremely short timeframe that keeps getting talked about, to be completely unfounded. We've never made a vaccine that fast before.

And we know quarantine works. We could eliminate this virus in a month. We could have eliminated this virus months ago.

Well, on we march, relying on hope and faith instead of science. So stupid.

Got anything other than "we've never done it that fast before"? Looking at the data published so far, I think your pessimism is ill founded. We're benefitting from all the basic biology research.

The rubella vax was 4 years in development. That was in the '60s. Computers took entire rooms, we couldn't sequence DNA, immunology textbooks were, comparatively speaking, pamphlets. It's obviously no guarantee, but it's also means we might be faster at stuff.


They were still working on a SARS-1 vaccine in 2016 before the plug was pulled on money. SARS-1 started in 2003.

Now supposedly that particular research is imagined to give us leg up on SARS-2, aka Covid-19, but vaccines typically take a lot of time.
 
2020-08-14 5:08:23 AM  

thespindrifter: More than six months ago it was already being spelled out by top thinkers for the whole world to assimilate and understand:

1) this is not a small, containable problem, it is in fact a permanent world-changing event
2) there are no fast, easy fixes and quarantining could/should have gone from February 2020 probably well into late December 2021 or so, as there is really no such thing as a quick fix vaccine, if there will ever be one,
3) people are going to have to *permanently alter* many aspects of their daily life and existence and routines indefinitely in order to prevent the spread and preserve social integrity

No one wanted to hear this. Clearly around the world no one wanted to be inconvenienced for the short term to help the entire world for the long haul, and now its just too damned late: the window of opportunity has closed, the door slammed shut, the ability to be minorly inconvenienced for a short period has now morphed into 'we are all going to pay the worst penalty for the long haul.  Once again when given the opportunity to choose between the right way and the wrong path, the human race has failed to do the right thing and chosen poorly as always. The legacy of humanity for all of history is failure and falling short, every single time.

Now our new normal will be the slippery slope into chaos and anarchy and the worst parts of the Bible. The few voices who cried out for better were ignored to the peril of all.


And all this happened in a pandemic that's killing hundreds of thousands right there. Now think about Global Climate Change.

Now weep for our collective prospects.
 
2020-08-14 7:04:46 AM  
The significant bulk of those at risk are unproductive and not of child-bearing age.

Subbie and "researchers" need to DIAF for spreading FUD.

The species is nowhere near at risk of vanishing anytime soon.
 
2020-08-14 8:21:51 AM  
Untwist your knickers. It's not a prediction - it's a "worst case scenario", and bills itself as such.
Worst case scenarios need to be planned for and anticipated, same as other outcomes.
That's what Humpty Trumpty didn't do - and partly why we're so well f**ked.
 
2020-08-14 8:28:53 AM  

PhoenixFarker: hissatsu: "I will applaud and celebrate when we have a vaccine. But for 50 years, the vaccine against malaria has been around the corner. For 50 years, the vaccine against the common cold is almost there," he said.

That's a pretty stupid sentence for a medical researcher to write. Wait, no, the guy's a mathematician. Malaria is caused by a protozoan, not a virus. The common cold is caused by over 200 different viruses. The current situation really isn't comparable.

Came here to say this. I don't doubt their math; I have serious questions about the assumptions that informed their math. That they don't appear to understand the common cold undermines their credibility tremendously.


Sometimes a person who is an expert in one field starts to believe that s/he can apply that expertise to other fields and come up with conclusions/solutions at which experts in that field couldn't or wouldn't arrive.

Sometimes they're right, in that their outsider perspective opens up possibilities that may have been overlooked or discarded by the orthodoxy.  But most of the time all you get is the idiot bastard child of Maslow's Hammer and the Dunning-Kruger effect.
 
2020-08-14 9:38:08 AM  
Yes, the article is based on a worst case scenario.  Are we in one?  Let's see, who's the president again?
 
2020-08-14 11:00:23 AM  

nulluspixiusdemonica: The significant bulk of those at risk are unproductive and not of child-bearing age.

Subbie and "researchers" need to DIAF for spreading FUD.

The species is nowhere near at risk of vanishing anytime soon.


Good job showing us your completely shiat reading comprehension skills.  'Lowered life expectancy' /= 'extinction'.

Christ, and you have the balls to shiat-talk about assholes spreading FUD.
 
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