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(CNBC)   Recession's cancelled, bull out front should've told you   (cnbc.com) divider line
    More: Unlikely, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, President Donald Trump, S&P, broader market index, biggest one-day jump  
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1041 clicks; posted to Business » on 12 Aug 2020 at 5:05 PM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



50 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-08-12 5:08:48 PM  
Don't rush to judgment on that one subby. The sugar rush is ending, and they probably will try to mainline a bit more sugar again. The problem being that it is becoming more difficult to maintain at this point. The downside being that the crash after mainlining this much sugar is probably going to be epic fail level.
 
2020-08-12 5:09:19 PM  
All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.
 
2020-08-12 5:11:19 PM  
Wait    for   it
 
2020-08-12 5:26:20 PM  
On the other hand, if the economy grows now, stock markets will have a whole new plan. It will show that death and quarantine are profitable, and Wall Street will begin fighting the WHO and the UN, and they will try to claw back vaccines around the world. plague will become an asset instead of a cost.
 
2020-08-12 5:31:14 PM  
It's an election year. Stock market bravado is the norm rather than the exception, just try not to be the last guy to cash out when the hype eventually fades.
 
2020-08-12 5:49:33 PM  
Buy stock in things you use they said.  You can't lose they said. They forgot about having the money to do all this.  You see I can know the greatest stocks available but if I can't afford to eat...doesn't matter.  That's my problem.  Now multiply my problem times millions.  That's everyone's problem.

Give it 2 weeks when compromises aren't worked out, and they realize executive orders mean nothing without money to back them.
 
2020-08-12 6:01:53 PM  
preview.redd.itView Full Size
 
2020-08-12 6:17:37 PM  

Bennie Crabtree: On the other hand, if the economy grows now, stock markets will have a whole new plan. It will show that death and quarantine are profitable, and Wall Street will begin fighting the WHO and the UN, and they will try to claw back vaccines around the world. plague will become an asset instead of a cost.


The fark are you on about?
 
2020-08-12 6:20:42 PM  

doomjesse: Buy stock in things you use they said.  You can't lose they said. They forgot about having the money to do all this.  You see I can know the greatest stocks available but if I can't afford to eat...doesn't matter.  That's my problem.  Now multiply my problem times millions.  That's everyone's problem.

Give it 2 weeks when compromises aren't worked out, and they realize executive orders mean nothing without money to back them.


This. There were so many stocks I had my eye on, just waiting for a dip. Lost three months of work and had to hold the money I was sitting on just in case. Luckily, I dumped all my American stuff at a really good time (held on to just under half my Tesla and regretting selling any of it :/) and did really well with Japanese stocks. Trying to figure out what I want to do with those now...
 
2020-08-12 6:23:17 PM  
I'm going to go to the massive homeless encampment by the river a few miles away and tell them they're all wealthy.
 
2020-08-12 6:27:57 PM  

Nadie_AZ: [preview.redd.it image 640x587]


This.

He pain is just starting.
 
2020-08-12 6:36:08 PM  
Stock market is decoupled.
It has its own inertia now and won't pay attention to reality until it gets bit on the azz.
 
2020-08-12 6:45:25 PM  
Can we stop pretending that the stock market reflects the state of America?
 
2020-08-12 7:08:51 PM  

theToadMan: All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.


odd you mention this.  My friend casually dropped that his wife started daytrading.  She is a SAHM and was a highschool spanish teacher.  So it seemed odd for her to embark on this.  No talk of training, studying how or anything.

Said she has been doing good so far.  reminded me of common advice on these type of threads "the market has been so good, so long, anyone can do well right now"
 
2020-08-12 7:13:22 PM  
Must suck for all the people who panicked out at Or near the bottom.
 
2020-08-12 7:16:44 PM  

Hyjamon: theToadMan: All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.

odd you mention this.  My friend casually dropped that his wife started daytrading.  She is a SAHM and was a highschool spanish teacher.  So it seemed odd for her to embark on this.  No talk of training, studying how or anything.

Said she has been doing good so far.  reminded me of common advice on these type of threads "the market has been so good, so long, anyone can do well right now"


One of my favorite musicians just started too.

They do not know of the impending bloodbath.
 
2020-08-12 7:28:33 PM  

The Big H: Must suck for all the people who panicked out at Or near the bottom.


Meh - with the apparent coming deflation, nobody with cash is going to be crying.
Anyway - this wheel is still spinning - unless you've taken profit and are out of the market, you might be in for the hosing of a lifetime at any moment.
You can't accurately predict the future - if you could, it wouldn't be the future. There is no "right thing" to do - just follow what ever guides you, and hope for the best.
No guarantees in this life.
 
2020-08-12 7:34:42 PM  

Hyjamon: theToadMan: All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.

odd you mention this.  My friend casually dropped that his wife started daytrading.  She is a SAHM and was a highschool spanish teacher.  So it seemed odd for her to embark on this.  No talk of training, studying how or anything.

Said she has been doing good so far.  reminded me of common advice on these type of threads "the market has been so good, so long, anyone can do well right now"


Just before the 1929 crash, a smart fellow overheard his shoe shine boy exchanging stock tips with another shoe shine boy. That was the day he got out of the market.
It was barely in time.
 
2020-08-12 7:51:32 PM  
Everyone is a genius day trader in a bull market.
 
2020-08-12 8:05:54 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Everyone is a genius day trader in a bull market.


Yeah... my dad wants to get into stocks. I told him this market scares the shiat out of me. The Fed is spending like a drunken Kardashian, tech stocks are farking insane, and the economy is in shambles. This is just a giant cash grab by the elite. When the big boys start pulling their cash out, it will have been too late for the little guy.
 
2020-08-12 8:07:00 PM  
Meh.

I never stopped buying up index funds. And when the market was down, my robo-advisor did a bunch of tax loss harvesting.

I'm going long, so I'll keep buying.
 
2020-08-12 8:36:18 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-12 8:43:06 PM  
Indeed. The Wealthy are doing just fine, and really, what else matters?
 
2020-08-12 8:46:10 PM  

AsparagusFTW: Hyjamon: theToadMan: All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.

odd you mention this.  My friend casually dropped that his wife started daytrading.  She is a SAHM and was a highschool spanish teacher.  So it seemed odd for her to embark on this.  No talk of training, studying how or anything.

Said she has been doing good so far.  reminded me of common advice on these type of threads "the market has been so good, so long, anyone can do well right now"

One of my favorite musicians just started too.

They do not know of the impending bloodbath.


A buddy of mine mentioned that his co-worker wants to quit his 9-5 to day-trade.  I couldn't stress "Don't do it" enough, especially if you have dependents.

But then again, maybe stonks will just only go up forever after all, even under the worst conditions.  Who knows anymore.
 
2020-08-12 9:12:49 PM  
In March I was down 20% from February, and now I'm up about 3% from February.  It makes no sense at all from a fundamental standpoint.  Everyone just keeps buying because money is cheap.
 
2020-08-12 9:21:46 PM  

strife: AsparagusFTW: Hyjamon: theToadMan: All of these brand new "COVID daytraders" that have been created from the stimulus funds are going to get their knees chopped off when this bubble pops.
This is the most epic dead cat bounce ever.

odd you mention this.  My friend casually dropped that his wife started daytrading.  She is a SAHM and was a highschool spanish teacher.  So it seemed odd for her to embark on this.  No talk of training, studying how or anything.

Said she has been doing good so far.  reminded me of common advice on these type of threads "the market has been so good, so long, anyone can do well right now"

One of my favorite musicians just started too.

They do not know of the impending bloodbath.

A buddy of mine mentioned that his co-worker wants to quit his 9-5 to day-trade.  I couldn't stress "Don't do it" enough, especially if you have dependents.

But then again, maybe stonks will just only go up forever after all, even under the worst conditions.  Who knows anymore.


I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works
 
2020-08-12 9:30:06 PM  

Rapmaster2000: In March I was down 20% from February, and now I'm up about 3% from February.  It makes no sense at all from a fundamental standpoint.  Everyone just keeps buying because money is cheap.


markets have been uncoupled from fundamentals for a long time.

at least 75% of all the tickers (in my opinion) is priced on sentiment. oh, remote work? buy zoom and msft for teams. oh successful phase 2 trial? thats gonna be money. airlines get government cheese? BOOM.

it isnt hard to see this and all the pivots and the money rotation
 
2020-08-12 9:39:09 PM  

Bob Dolemite: Rapmaster2000: In March I was down 20% from February, and now I'm up about 3% from February.  It makes no sense at all from a fundamental standpoint.  Everyone just keeps buying because money is cheap.

markets have been uncoupled from fundamentals for a long time.

at least 75% of all the tickers (in my opinion) is priced on sentiment. oh, remote work? buy zoom and msft for teams. oh successful phase 2 trial? thats gonna be money. airlines get government cheese? BOOM.

it isnt hard to see this and all the pivots and the money rotation


I think all the vaccine buying is about the most speculative buying you can make.  None of these vaccine developers have any projected revenue for a vaccine.  You might be the first to vaccine and still not make any money.
 
2020-08-12 9:42:48 PM  

AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works


i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.
 
2020-08-12 9:45:03 PM  

Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.


The latter. The stock isn't cheaper.  It's a smaller share of the company.
 
2020-08-12 9:46:48 PM  

Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.


Yes. The price you pay is 1/5 of the share price. But you also get 1/5th of the earnings it produces. So essentially you are still paying the price for the share. The only difference now is that it is $100 instead of $500.
 
2020-08-12 9:49:34 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.

The latter. The stock isn't cheaper.  It's a smaller share of the company.


thanks.  are fractional share purchases more common now on platforms for us plebs?

I know my dividends just get reinvested for the fraction they are worth.  Vanguard seems to only allow whole number of shares transactions when I buy.
 
2020-08-12 9:53:05 PM  

Hyjamon: Rapmaster2000: Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.

The latter. The stock isn't cheaper.  It's a smaller share of the company.

thanks.  are fractional share purchases more common now on platforms for us plebs?

I know my dividends just get reinvested for the fraction they are worth.  Vanguard seems to only allow whole number of shares transactions when I buy.


Bad wording on my part. It is not 1/5 of a share. You get 1 full share. It's just there are now 5 times as many shares. So the value of shares is diluted. You would not receive .20 shares. You would receive 1 share, but 5x more outstanding shares now.

If you bought the share today @$452/ea, tomorrow you would own 5 shares @ $90.4. Still full shares. I am not sure how the fractional shares work as I do not use that model, so I cannot comment. I use etrade, so I dont use a specific fund, so I have to buy/sell full shares.
 
2020-08-12 10:09:52 PM  

Hyjamon: Rapmaster2000: Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.

The latter. The stock isn't cheaper.  It's a smaller share of the company.

thanks.  are fractional share purchases more common now on platforms for us plebs?

I know my dividends just get reinvested for the fraction they are worth.  Vanguard seems to only allow whole number of shares transactions when I buy.


Robin Hood pioneered it, but I've heard more do it.

Technically, fractional shares have been offered for years as a part of DRIPs:  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divi​de​nd_reinvestment_plan

Basically, when Verizon gives me a dividend, it gets automatically invested by E*TRADE as whatever fraction of a share that cash dividend will buy. Vanguard will probably do the same. They do it with my Vanguard managed 401k.  Search for DRIP on the Vanguard page and enroll.
 
2020-08-12 10:19:01 PM  

Hyjamon: Rapmaster2000: Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: I just got a call from my parents about buying Apple since they announced the stock split. they thought it was going to be 1/5th cheaper.

/that's not how any of this works

i thought that is how splits work, from a buyers perspective.

Day 1: one stock of company A = $100
Day 2: 4:1 split
Day 3: one stock of company A = $25

Or are you talking from a larger perspective of the fact that in the end you are still only investing $25 in the company.  Be it 0.25 share at the $100 price or 1.00 shares at the $25 price.

I am trying to learn all of this out of curiosity.  I am mostly an index and forget it guy.

The latter. The stock isn't cheaper.  It's a smaller share of the company.

thanks.  are fractional share purchases more common now on platforms for us plebs?

I know my dividends just get reinvested for the fraction they are worth.  Vanguard seems to only allow whole number of shares transactions when I buy.


Also, for this example, I'll say a share is $500, and it's earnings are $50/share.

It's price to earnings would be 10 (500/50)
Once the split happens, your share is now $100, but also those earnings are split. So your share would be $10 in earnings. So the PE stays the same. 100/10 = 10

The split only effected the price, all ratios stay the same. It did not change the PE ratio, so it is the same "price" of PE 10 that you are paying after the split.
 
2020-08-12 10:33:05 PM  

AsparagusFTW: Also, for this example, I'll say a share is $500, and it's earnings are $50/share.

It's price to earnings would be 10 (500/50)
Once the split happens, your share is now $100, but also those earnings are split. So your share would be $10 in earnings. So the PE stays the same. 100/10 = 10

The split only effected the price, all ratios stay the same. It did not change the PE ratio, so it is the same "price" of PE 10 that you are paying after the split.


gotcha, PE seems to be a more comparable unit measurement between stocks then for the same reason, it is normalizing, in effect, for return on investment.

Given three stocks with PE's of 2, 5 and 7.  all other things being equal,  I'd want to invest in the one with 2 PE.

PE feels like a bit counter-intuitive at first. i am sure there are other metrics, but interesting how the PE is a reciprocal of an ROI calculation.
 
2020-08-12 10:37:11 PM  
Looks like Wall Street is very happy with Kamala.
 
2020-08-12 10:40:22 PM  

Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: Also, for this example, I'll say a share is $500, and it's earnings are $50/share.

It's price to earnings would be 10 (500/50)
Once the split happens, your share is now $100, but also those earnings are split. So your share would be $10 in earnings. So the PE stays the same. 100/10 = 10

The split only effected the price, all ratios stay the same. It did not change the PE ratio, so it is the same "price" of PE 10 that you are paying after the split.

gotcha, PE seems to be a more comparable unit measurement between stocks then for the same reason, it is normalizing, in effect, for return on investment.

Given three stocks with PE's of 2, 5 and 7.  all other things being equal,  I'd want to invest in the one with 2 PE.

PE feels like a bit counter-intuitive at first. i am sure there are other metrics, but interesting how the PE is a reciprocal of an ROI calculation.


Long story short, PE is a barometer to use, but it is accounting earnings. Accounting is weird. But PE is so you can compare companies because share price literally means nothing.

That is the thing. A low PE can occur because the business fundamentally changed and the share price got dumped before the crappy earnings become realized. A low PE is most of the time a sign to stay away.

Example.

Company XYZ trades for $100, earns $10 currently. PE is 10. On their annual conference call they announce a major piece of legislation got passed that is going to dramatically kill earnings. Stock next day goes to $20. It is all looking backward. So you might search low PE stocks, and see this 2PE and go "GREAT!" But the business changed.

So the next year earnings come out after the legislation passed  and earnings are now $.10/share. The new PE is $20/$.10 = 200. Super expensive at that point, sells off again. Today's PE is using data looking back. It is your job to estimate future earnings. The news of the legislation caused the stock to sell off because year 1 they had great earnings, but year 2 not yet realized have gone to shiat.

So low PE stocks can be hell. Most of the time, it is a warning flag to stay the hell away because there was a fundamental change and the earnings have not caught up yet, and the stock sold off.
 
2020-08-12 10:47:33 PM  
Uh let's see, cost of living still up, nothing has changed with income inequality, and you can still lose your life savings by getting sick so i'm going to guess, not so much.
 
2020-08-12 10:48:26 PM  

Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: Also, for this example, I'll say a share is $500, and it's earnings are $50/share.

It's price to earnings would be 10 (500/50)
Once the split happens, your share is now $100, but also those earnings are split. So your share would be $10 in earnings. So the PE stays the same. 100/10 = 10

The split only effected the price, all ratios stay the same. It did not change the PE ratio, so it is the same "price" of PE 10 that you are paying after the split.

gotcha, PE seems to be a more comparable unit measurement between stocks then for the same reason, it is normalizing, in effect, for return on investment.

Given three stocks with PE's of 2, 5 and 7.  all other things being equal,  I'd want to invest in the one with 2 PE.

PE feels like a bit counter-intuitive at first. i am sure there are other metrics, but interesting how the PE is a reciprocal of an ROI calculation.


Honestly, for me this is my main concern.

There are millions of things to look at. I dont even like looking at income personally. I do accounting for a living. Whatever you want the earnings to be, we can get you there. It's a puff number.

For mer personally, the biggest thing is cash flows and debt. The statement of cash flows is starting cash, what came in, and what left, and ending balance. How much cash does the company generate, and can they use that cash to pay debt, or easily service it. Earnings of a company does not equal cash in the bank. It's so full of estimates and accruals and stupid bullshiat. It is honestly a puff piece.

Cash is audited, and balances unless there is massive fraud. So do they have sufficient cash flows to operate the business and pay down debts, or fund new business, etc.

That's just my preference. Accounting earnings is ficticious. It's all on paper. Cash is real.
 
2020-08-12 10:53:11 PM  

AsparagusFTW: Hyjamon: AsparagusFTW: Also, for this example, I'll say a share is $500, and it's earnings are $50/share.

It's price to earnings would be 10 (500/50)
Once the split happens, your share is now $100, but also those earnings are split. So your share would be $10 in earnings. So the PE stays the same. 100/10 = 10

The split only effected the price, all ratios stay the same. It did not change the PE ratio, so it is the same "price" of PE 10 that you are paying after the split.

gotcha, PE seems to be a more comparable unit measurement between stocks then for the same reason, it is normalizing, in effect, for return on investment.

Given three stocks with PE's of 2, 5 and 7.  all other things being equal,  I'd want to invest in the one with 2 PE.

PE feels like a bit counter-intuitive at first. i am sure there are other metrics, but interesting how the PE is a reciprocal of an ROI calculation.

Honestly, for me this is my main concern.

There are millions of things to look at. I dont even like looking at income personally. I do accounting for a living. Whatever you want the earnings to be, we can get you there. It's a puff number.

For mer personally, the biggest thing is cash flows and debt. The statement of cash flows is starting cash, what came in, and what left, and ending balance. How much cash does the company generate, and can they use that cash to pay debt, or easily service it. Earnings of a company does not equal cash in the bank. It's so full of estimates and accruals and stupid bullshiat. It is honestly a puff piece.

Cash is audited, and balances unless there is massive fraud. So do they have sufficient cash flows to operate the business and pay down debts, or fund new business, etc.

That's just my preference. Accounting earnings is ficticious. It's all on paper. Cash is real.


thanks for the insight.
 
2020-08-12 10:54:43 PM  
I do a ton of reading personally on all this shiat because I have nothing better to do with my time and it makes my brain tick.

One of the best resources that came out recently is the book pictured below. It is a great starting book to walk you through a process of selecting a process, and your thought process. It is a little slow in the first half, but it is a great starting point to give you an idea of what is and is not important.

They do a GREAT weekly podcast. That is why i bought the book even though I was well passed that stage. I still read it, you can always gain something. Their podcast is called Invested. They have about 300 episodes now. (Skip episode 0, it is an intro episode, and horrid) But honestly from episode 1 and on, have been great.

Phil Town has also wrote some books as well that I recommend. But him and his daughter started the podcast, and she wrote this book for an absolute starting place. It is a great resource to follow essentially the Buffett path of finding wonderful companies, at great prices, and how to calculate out the numbers you need.

Podcast Link

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-12 10:55:27 PM  
Hyjamon:
thanks for the insight.

No prob. Forgot to copy you on the comment above. Enjoy.
 
2020-08-12 11:08:37 PM  

AsparagusFTW: Hyjamon:
thanks for the insight.

No prob. Forgot to copy you on the comment above. Enjoy.


always up for a new podcast to try.
 
2020-08-12 11:11:54 PM  
We are past recession....we are headed towards Depression stage if we aren't realiticaly there already when fake stonks and money printers are pulled out of the picture.
 
2020-08-12 11:20:03 PM  

MBZ321: We are past recession....we are headed towards Depression stage if we aren't realiticaly there already when fake stonks and money printers are pulled out of the picture.


That is my personal bet. In the last few weeks I have shifted as much as I could to a "shiat hit the fan" portfolio. Most bets I have now are for an economic implosion.

The $600 just ended, mass evictions, 30m on gov assistance, 25m people in homes having trouble with rent and mortgages...shiat is so ugly right now it is astonishingly bad.
 
2020-08-13 1:08:52 AM  
I'm a business novice of sorts*, but I'm pretty sure the stock market has jack and shiat to do with whether or not we're in a recession. Am I wrong?


*Even though I have a degree in a business discipline. Shhhh, don't tell my bosses
 
2020-08-13 1:09:28 AM  

AsparagusFTW: MBZ321: We are past recession....we are headed towards Depression stage if we aren't realiticaly there already when fake stonks and money printers are pulled out of the picture.

That is my personal bet. In the last few weeks I have shifted as much as I could to a "shiat hit the fan" portfolio. Most bets I have now are for an economic implosion.

The $600 just ended, mass evictions, 30m on gov assistance, 25m people in homes having trouble with rent and mortgages...shiat is so ugly right now it is astonishingly bad.


And yet, the person who's farking everything up isn't a shoe-in to lose in November even in a fair election
 
2020-08-13 2:07:03 AM  

AsparagusFTW: MBZ321: We are past recession....we are headed towards Depression stage if we aren't realiticaly there already when fake stonks and money printers are pulled out of the picture.

That is my personal bet. In the last few weeks I have shifted as much as I could to a "shiat hit the fan" portfolio. Most bets I have now are for an economic implosion.

The $600 just ended, mass evictions, 30m on gov assistance, 25m people in homes having trouble with rent and mortgages...shiat is so ugly right now it is astonishingly bad.


Also, wanted to say thanks for the comments.  Out of curiosity what do you look for in the "shiat hit the fan" portfolio?
 
2020-08-13 8:52:26 AM  

phoenix352: AsparagusFTW: MBZ321: We are past recession....we are headed towards Depression stage if we aren't realiticaly there already when fake stonks and money printers are pulled out of the picture.

That is my personal bet. In the last few weeks I have shifted as much as I could to a "shiat hit the fan" portfolio. Most bets I have now are for an economic implosion.

The $600 just ended, mass evictions, 30m on gov assistance, 25m people in homes having trouble with rent and mortgages...shiat is so ugly right now it is astonishingly bad.

Also, wanted to say thanks for the comments.  Out of curiosity what do you look for in the "shiat hit the fan" portfolio?


Things that people need no matter what in times of distress. Food for example. And metals do really well during economic calamaities. Anything that is slightly elastic, has a high probability of getting torched when consumer spending dies. Food producer, grocery, and metals is my 'fark it' portfolio, the one where I can dictate where the funds go. No matter how shiatty this economy gets, you still need to eat.

/not investment advice
 
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