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(University of Arizona)   More good news - real estate will crash as there are not enough Gen Ys and Zs to buy Boomer homes   (news.arizona.edu) divider line
    More: Awkward, Real estate, professor Arthur C. Nelson, Generation X, Urban planning, Suburb, Arthur C. Nelson, senior-citizen owners, Urban design  
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1075 clicks; posted to Business » and Politics » on 12 Aug 2020 at 2:17 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-08-11 9:45:27 PM  
assets.rebelmouse.ioView Full Size
 
2020-08-11 9:50:36 PM  
I don't believe it.

It'll just get bought up by corporate entities owned by the rich and setup as rental units.

/like what happened 2009/2010
// that's how Sean Hannity ends up owning 870 properties
 
2020-08-11 10:00:10 PM  
It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.
 
2020-08-11 10:05:59 PM  
They weren't built to last anyway.
 
2020-08-11 10:15:24 PM  
Pfff. Like there's going to be a shortage of transnational money laundering when the Boomers want to sell.
 
2020-08-11 10:19:51 PM  

weddingsinger: I don't believe it.

It'll just get bought up by corporate entities owned by the rich and setup as rental units.

/like what happened 2009/2010
// that's how Sean Hannity ends up owning 870 properties


And is beginning again to happen now.
 
2020-08-11 11:32:26 PM  
Gen Zer here.

I'll echo what others have said, but back it with 1st-hand experience.  I've been approached by a "buying group" that's been snapping up properties around Tucson at breakneck speed (at least that's what the group in question has said.)

The rent-seeking class has a LOT of money put aside for the express purpose of making more money.  Those homes will just be more fuel for more income inequality.

/ No, I didn't join them.
// I'm doing ok financially, don't see the need to exploit people that aren't doing as well so I can be "more ok"
/// is one more blade than should be allowed on any razor
 
2020-08-11 11:39:57 PM  
So somebody's trying to get older people to sell their houses for below market value now by pumping fear of the future?

I'm just amazed. This has never happened before.
 
2020-08-12 12:13:17 AM  
Around here I've had speculators pumping up my property value 220% since I purchased, 3 years ago. I have changed very little about the property except mowing it, putting up a fence, and actually living on the property. I should own the place outright within 10 years and it can't happen soon enough. 

Fark this particular rat race. I hope the whole market collapses, I hope they outlaw foreign companies from sitting on American housing that sits empty and rots, I hope they force the banks to do above board foreclosure auctions instead of the artificial jacking of the prices they do now. What boomers and gen X companies have done to modern housing should be criminal.
 
2020-08-12 2:55:21 AM  
I'd be happy with raising property taxes.  If someone wants to own multiple fancy homes, they can pay the state for that privilege

Primary home gets the lowest property tax rate based on its value, and each additional home raises that rate.  So you can have multiple homes, but you will likely have a primary home, and smaller extra homes for when you are not at the primary.

The fun part would be figuring out how to handle this for companies.  Perhaps set it where if the property is zoned residential it is treated as a home and subject to the higher taxes?
 
2020-08-12 3:44:34 AM  
Kat09tails:
Fark this particular rat race. I hope the whole market collapses, I hope they outlaw foreign companies from sitting on American housing that sits empty and rots, I hope they force the banks to do above board foreclosure auctions instead of the artificial jacking of the prices they do now. What boomers and gen X companies have done to modern housing should be criminal.

Make it expensive. I like the idea of taxing empty units. You set the rent too high and the places are empty? You pay a tax based on the rental price. The tax can pay for services for the homeless. Maybe a 2 month grace period for tenant swapping once every other year.
 
2020-08-12 4:29:22 AM  

thorpe: So somebody's trying to get older people to sell their houses for below market value now by pumping fear of the future?

I'm just amazed. This has never happened before.


Up next: sending black women with strollers to walk the neighborhood.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block​b​usting
 
2020-08-12 4:33:26 AM  
Because their entire nest egg is tied up in those homes.  They're going to want to triple their investment to pay off the old folk's home.
Meanwhile, they'll want to sell that 2 bed/1 bath for $400k to someone who only makes $15.
 
2020-08-12 5:34:08 AM  
Difficulty: University of Arizona

J/K

weddingsinger: I don't believe it.

It'll just get bought up by corporate entities owned by the rich and setup as rental units.

/like what happened 2009/2010
// that's how Sean Hannity ends up owning 870 properties


That'll happen, but ultimately their value will still be determined by renters' ability to pay.
 
2020-08-12 6:13:42 AM  

Catlenfell: Because their entire nest egg is tied up in those homes.  They're going to want to triple their investment to pay off the old folk's home.
Meanwhile, they'll want to sell that 2 bed/1 bath for $400k to someone who only makes $15.


The thing is, the end of the Boomer generation is finally getting to retirement age, and a lot of them will be dying with nobody to inherit the homes they actually paid off. A bunch of those will be getting nailed with tax liens because nobody will be paying taxes on those homes.

The tail end of the Boomer generation, as well as older folks from Gen X, will have a very good chance of snapping up homes for pennies on the dollar at tax auctions.
 
2020-08-12 6:25:40 AM  

Catlenfell: Because their entire nest egg is tied up in those homes.  They're going to want to triple their investment to pay off the old folk's home.
Meanwhile, they'll want to sell that 2 bed/1 bath for $400k to someone who only makes $15.


And they'll blame Millennials for not working hard enough and making enough money to afford their own chosen lifestyle.
 
2020-08-12 7:09:16 AM  
Isn't this the case now?  Aren't there lots of undesirable homes in declining places?  Has this guy ever heard of the Rust Belt?
 
2020-08-12 7:18:27 AM  

lardweasel: Gen Zer here.

I'll echo what others have said, but back it with 1st-hand experience.  I've been approached by a "buying group" that's been snapping up properties around Tucson at breakneck speed (at least that's what the group in question has said.)

The rent-seeking class has a LOT of money put aside for the express purpose of making more money.  Those homes will just be more fuel for more income inequality.

/ No, I didn't join them.
// I'm doing ok financially, don't see the need to exploit people that aren't doing as well so I can be "more ok"
/// is one more blade than should be allowed on any razor


Pretty much this.

In the GTHA area Foriegn Buyers are jacking up the housing market to insane levels to the point anything that's WITHIN a 2 hour drive is basically unobtainable unless you and your spouse make over 100K each OR your parents give you some serious help.
Cottage country (Muskoka and similar area's) which have always been generally expensive are even more expensive because as the boomers sell out to Chinese and Middle Eastern Real estate companies they're taking their extremely large chunks of cash and starting bidding wars on cottages jacking up that market to insane levels.
They're buying 2 or 3 cottages in a row, tearing them down, building on big McMansion then putting up huge ass fences, self policing the waters infront of their places generally trying to make cottage country as much as the shiathole city the citoits escaped from.
Many, MANY of the citiots seem to never read the actual property boundries and somehow think their property extends into the water.
Its a shiat show.
 
2020-08-12 7:39:40 AM  
Among those is a program in which the federal government would buy back homes that have or may become unsellable. The Federal Emergency Management Agency already does something similar with homes that or have been or are likely to be damaged by natural disasters.

Or just pay millennials more, raise the minimum wage, UBI etc...
 
2020-08-12 7:48:24 AM  

TotallyRealNotFake: They're buying 2 or 3 cottages in a row, tearing them down, building on big McMansion then putting up huge ass fences


They have to go through zoning to do this, correct?  And since the zoning board is composed of elected officials who can only be elected by permanent residents, there is a way to do something about this.

Unless I'm not up on my Cottage Country Law.
 
2020-08-12 7:49:20 AM  

BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.


My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
  - (3) Engineers
  - (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.
 
2020-08-12 7:49:52 AM  
Rapmaster2000:

Those with the money bribe for exemptions.
 
2020-08-12 8:04:43 AM  

AuralArgument: Rapmaster2000:

Those with the money bribe for exemptions.


Sounds like everyone is bad, so re-elect.
 
2020-08-12 8:13:17 AM  

Rapmaster2000: TotallyRealNotFake: They're buying 2 or 3 cottages in a row, tearing them down, building on big McMansion then putting up huge ass fences

They have to go through zoning to do this, correct?  And since the zoning board is composed of elected officials who can only be elected by permanent residents, there is a way to do something about this.

Unless I'm not up on my Cottage Country Law.


You're correct, you do have to apply to have the various properties merged into one and sometimes its approved, sometimes not.
That's NOT the issue.
The new McMansions look like shiatty af becuase they don't match the area at all and a total waist of money for a place thats used only on weekends June - Sept.
The issues are these individuals are making it almost impossible to permanent area residence to buy or rent since all the local jobs are basically seasonal part time.
I personally have two friends in Parry Sound that are basically homeless bow becuase finding a non seasonal rental that isn't astronomically expensive is extremely hard.
Far harder than in Toronto actually.
Also, places that have traditionally always been open and available are now having fences thrown up and MOST of the time the individual putting up the fences don't even own it.
They're hoping no one says shiat and boom free land.
The waterline is also a very contentious issue since YOU DON'T OWN THE WATER LINE.
Your property stops at the High Water Mark.
Not so much an issue on lakes and canals where the water levels are controlled by the MNR. However there are places like Georgian Bay I'll use as an example.
Citiots bought a nice house that faces the lake, they'll run out screaming at you as you walk past saying your trespassing.
They've actually said to me that their property extends 5 feet out into the water.  Which is hilariously bullshiat since their actual property line stops about 15 feet away from the waters edge.
Their logic is if the lake drops 5 feet or so (which it has in the past) BOOM instant free land. As long as it keeps dropping their property keeps getting extended because *reasons*.
The worse thing to ever come to cottage country is the citiot boomer karen.
I no longer pay attention to people when I walk the shoreline, the last time I had some jack off tell me he'll call the cops I told him to do it.
I'll wait for you to get the deed and prove to me and the cops you are the rightfully owner of the waters edge.
Suddenly his threats turn to telling me off and walking away.
Or as I pointed out, trying to make cottage country more like the shiathole the GTHA has become.
 
2020-08-12 8:29:50 AM  
You underestimate the buying power of oligarchs at the laundry.
 
2020-08-12 8:49:15 AM  

Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.


Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.
 
2020-08-12 9:01:59 AM  

raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.


I have a friend in LA who is a cinematographer in movies you've heard of, and he's priced out.

Though, it's not the worst thing.  He lives in a tiny apartment because he spends most of the year living in a hotel.  He also owns a home he inherited in Florida.
 
2020-08-12 9:04:35 AM  

Rapmaster2000: raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.

I have a friend in LA who is a cinematographer in movies you've heard of, and he's priced out.

Though, it's not the worst thing.  He lives in a tiny apartment because he spends most of the year living in a hotel.  He also owns a home he inherited in Florida.


Yeah, we're looking to buy property outside the US in a few years if student loan forgiveness happens.  If not....there goes that dream...
 
2020-08-12 9:26:18 AM  
Basically the government gave the rich so much money and favors that they've run out of placed to park their money.

The stock market keeps going up in the middle of a pandemic that's crashing Main Street, and a lot of folks can't figure out why.  It's not complicated though; there's nowhere else for the money to go!  They're already buying up properties as fast as they go on sale.  Gold and the stock market are going up at the same time.

So city properties sit empty and rot because there are no buyers and the rich will simply not accept a loss.  Fortunately for them the government is fully invested in making sure the rich suffer no consequences ever, so my guess is that in a decade or so they'll create some shady program to "eminent domain" these properties at ten times the investment price (your primary residence that got bulldozed for a highway is still compensated at pennies on the dollar -- what, you think people are equals in America? LOL) and throw all the losses into the pile of debt.
 
2020-08-12 9:41:35 AM  
Currently looking to buy.  The only things I give a fark about are location, elevation/drainage, and the roof.  If those are good I'm interested.  I'm not giving a single penny for your super and overly fancy kitchens and bathrooms.  I'm looking for a house with shiat bathrooms and kitchens so I can renovate them myself.

One of the big problems is before 2008 a lot of people were convinced to take out home equity lines of credit to remodel their homes to "increase their value."  But everything will eventually look dated anyways.  People are delusional if they think they can recoup even a percentage of that money that they put into fellating their house.
 
2020-08-12 9:45:58 AM  
Houses are dwellings not investments.
 
2020-08-12 9:53:46 AM  

BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.


The market will crash but for some reason mortgage rates will go back to the teens so no one can still afford a home.
 
2020-08-12 9:56:16 AM  
Throw on the pile the upcoming Jumbo Loan crisis. Banks gave out a LOT of jumbo loans to people with good job income (not independently wealthy) at reduced rates so that people that could not really afford them could buy McMansions. Only 5% of these loans have been paid off, but a lot of people that had good jobs are in trouble now., and that McMansion may be hard to sell in a lot of areas.
 
2020-08-12 9:57:36 AM  

raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.


A lot of the California real estate market is completely incomprehensible to me. No one I've known to live in California can afford to live in California. How can an entire state operate that way?
 
2020-08-12 10:02:48 AM  

gaslight: [assets.rebelmouse.io image 850x446]


I fought bravely in the 1980's cola wars.
 
2020-08-12 10:20:55 AM  
Burn 'em. Make more parks. Too many houses anyway.

i.pinimg.comView Full Size
 
2020-08-12 10:31:16 AM  

cirby: Catlenfell: Because their entire nest egg is tied up in those homes.  They're going to want to triple their investment to pay off the old folk's home.
Meanwhile, they'll want to sell that 2 bed/1 bath for $400k to someone who only makes $15.

The thing is, the end of the Boomer generation is finally getting to retirement age, and a lot of them will be dying with nobody to inherit the homes they actually paid off. A bunch of those will be getting nailed with tax liens because nobody will be paying taxes on those homes.

The tail end of the Boomer generation, as well as older folks from Gen X, will have a very good chance of snapping up homes for pennies on the dollar at tax auctions.


The down payment I started saving before the last bubble is now enough to buy a house outright.  I'll only do it if prices fall by at least 20%.  Otherwise, renting is cheaper.
 
2020-08-12 10:36:08 AM  

raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.


Yep. I have a co worker with an IMDb page. It's not the celebrity thing everyone thinks.
 
2020-08-12 11:00:14 AM  
Good. I'm 38 and out of debt thanks to bankruptcy and maybe someday years from now I might like to buy a home.
 
2020-08-12 11:07:12 AM  

thurstonxhowell: raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.

A lot of the California real estate market is completely incomprehensible to me. No one I've known to live in California can afford to live in California. How can an entire state operate that way?


Fewer and fewer people will own more and more property and they rent them out. It's the next real estate trend in the making.
 
2020-08-12 11:07:57 AM  

Rapmaster2000: raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.

I have a friend in LA who is a cinematographer in movies you've heard of, and he's priced out.

Though, it's not the worst thing.  He lives in a tiny apartment because he spends most of the year living in a hotel.  He also owns a home he inherited in Florida.


I'm guessing that industry in LA is like Finance in NY. Sure, the producers, talent, and mid office execs can afford to buy there, but the people who do the lion's share of the work can not, and have to rent in Laurel Canyon or Pasadena or wherever.

Same in NY. If you're a PM or MD at Goldman or Citi, you're all set. But if you're just some analyst or associate at Lazard working until 3 AM, it's off to a walk up in Brooklyn or Hoboken.
 
2020-08-12 11:38:21 AM  
I keep holding out for the collapse. Right now I'm renting (at a ridiculously low below-market rate). People think I should go buy now with the low rates, but I predict there is more of a drop to come.
 
2020-08-12 11:53:25 AM  

Nadie_AZ: thurstonxhowell: raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.

A lot of the California real estate market is completely incomprehensible to me. No one I've known to live in California can afford to live in California. How can an entire state operate that way?

Fewer and fewer people will own more and more property and they rent them out. It's the next real estate trend in the making.


What's old is new again.
 
2020-08-12 12:06:00 PM  
My parents bought a home in the new Sun City development in 2018. There is literally a 9.3 mile stretch between the nearest building and their neighborhood, and their subdivision is 80% adult (55+) homes. I live downtown in Phoenix and the drive is about an hour.

Considering they're in good health, I assume they won't pass until sometime in the 2040s. I basically considered the property near worthless even before they purchased it. Given the growing heat problems in AZ, I simply assume the suburbs will contract inwards. This article is just the cherry on top.
 
2020-08-12 12:09:49 PM  

weddingsinger: I don't believe it.

It'll just get bought up by corporate entities owned by the rich and setup as rental units.

/like what happened 2009/2010
// that's how Sean Hannity ends up owning 870 properties


Purchased with taxpayer low interest loans.  And he speaks to President Trump every night before he goes beddy bye.
 
2020-08-12 12:40:12 PM  

lardweasel: Gen Zer here.
I'll echo what others have said, but back it with 1st-hand experience.  I've been approached by a "buying group" that's been snapping up properties around Tucson at breakneck speed (at least that's what the group in question has said.)
The rent-seeking class has a LOT of money put aside for the express purpose of making more money.  Those homes will just be more fuel for more income inequality.
/ No, I didn't join them.
// I'm doing ok financially, don't see the need to exploit people that aren't doing as well so I can be "more ok"
/// is one more blade than should be allowed on any razor


Disaster capitalism from here on out.
Oh you'll all be participating. You'll just rewrite it as "the new American Dream" because after all, what is so bad about preying on others to get rich? That's how it's always been done.
It's just going to be a little more direct now. And you can't stop it--the mechanisms were put in place years ago. All they needed was for us to keep being greedy assholes.

Mission accomplished.
 
2020-08-12 12:48:50 PM  
Most of those homes will end up occupied by their kids.

I'm trying to keep my dad in his home as long as possible (he's 85), but when he dies his very nice house will be sold. All of his kids have homes of their own that they are happy in. It will be sad for the old homestead to leave the family, but ultimately it is just a 'thing' and it is okay to let those go.

For Boomers it will be more likely that when they die their Millennial/Zoomer kids will actually move-in and live there because they were in an apartment before. So I don't expect a huge flood on the market.
 
2020-08-12 1:05:28 PM  

Rapmaster2000: TotallyRealNotFake: They're buying 2 or 3 cottages in a row, tearing them down, building on big McMansion then putting up huge ass fences

They have to go through zoning to do this, correct?  And since the zoning board is composed of elected officials who can only be elected by permanent residents, there is a way to do something about this.

Unless I'm not up on my Cottage Country Law.


HOAs circumvent that with allowing property owners to vote for board members.
 
2020-08-12 1:32:16 PM  

raerae1980: Zeb Hesselgresser: BizarreMan: It's not like they've got good enough jobs to afford one.

My experience is different.  I have (6) nieces and nephews in their late 20's and early 30's.  All homeowners but one (free spirit van lifer).
- (3) Engineers
- (3) Healthcare

Do you homework, kids.

Depends where they live.  I have a friend that works in Hollywood, like youve seen his name in the credits from big blockbusters, but he and his wife have high student loan debt (as i do) and they cant afford a home.  In fact, not a single friend of mine owns a home out here, we're all priced out.


Yep. I can buy a place in Chicago but it's not worth the hassle / money to get a 1 BR. I don't have enough money for a 2 BR that isn't a dump and fark living in a closet. I have a great job but considering I travel(ed) most of the time for work, renting was just easier.

Now that that's changing the industry, I might buy when I move south but not here. Why buy until I have a SO anyway
 
2020-08-12 1:35:00 PM  
My daughter is a real estate agent. She says that demand is way up but inventory is down. I guess people just aren't that interested in moving right now. Some are but those are the ones fleeing the big cities creating the demand. The people already here aren't interested in going anywhere. Lots of cash offers and listings only lasting a few days.
 
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