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(Stat News)   America's small window of opportunity to beat back COVID-19 is closing fast. Hint: the flu season is right around the corner   (statnews.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Infectious disease, Epidemiology, Influenza, Infection, Vaccination, cousins of the virus, public health experts, northern parts of the country  
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1390 clicks; posted to Main » on 10 Aug 2020 at 5:32 PM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-08-10 4:01:53 PM  
I thought it closed 3 months ago.
 
2020-08-10 4:22:31 PM  
Oh don't you worry. We won't do anything meaningful before it shuts.
 
2020-08-10 4:25:01 PM  
Are you suggesting this winter is going to be a high-octane adventure in which humanity is forced to join forces with influenza in order to defeat the coronavirus?
 
2020-08-10 5:12:49 PM  
But Trump said hot weather will kill it off
 
2020-08-10 5:28:15 PM  
I wonder if people's heightened awareness of good public hygiene right now will help lessen the severity of the regular flu spread this year.
 
2020-08-10 5:35:16 PM  
The secret to the flu is that the same measures that will protect you from COVID will be very effective with the flu too.

Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep physical distance between you and others
 
2020-08-10 5:37:44 PM  

We Ate the Necco Wafers: The secret to the flu is that the same measures that will protect you from COVID will be very effective with the flu too.

Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep physical distance between you and others


So what youre saying is we are farked.
 
2020-08-10 5:40:32 PM  

wademh: I wonder if people's heightened awareness of good public hygiene right now will help lessen the severity of the regular flu spread this year.


It's working in New Zealand:

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-10 5:40:34 PM  
Beat back covid? Its too late. Our only hope now is a vaccine.
 
2020-08-10 5:44:18 PM  

dothemath: We Ate the Necco Wafers: The secret to the flu is that the same measures that will protect you from COVID will be very effective with the flu too.

Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep physical distance between you and others

So what youre saying is we are farked.


Yep.
 
2020-08-10 5:44:45 PM  
Truth be known, new cases by day has been dropping for about two weeks now from an 'entire US' perspective.  Georgia looks to be leveling off (let's give that another week...), Cali's numbers are going down....it's not all doom and gloom.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronav​i​rus/country/us/

I'm hunkering down, I wear a mask when shopping, but I have to say that with the number of people I've seen without masks (varies depending on where I shop) I'd think cases here in Georgia would be exploding.  They're not.
 
2020-08-10 5:48:08 PM  
"The bad news: That window is rapidly closing. And the country seems unwilling or unable to seize the moment."

The phrase 'we are run by Republicans' takes a whole lot less words.
 
2020-08-10 5:50:54 PM  
I'm getting ready now........
Fark user imageView Full Size
Fark user imageView Full Size

I have more & no I not gonna share!!!!
 
2020-08-10 5:55:23 PM  
You ever notice how people just make this stuff up as they go?

Remember back in the spring when that guy dressed in the grim reaper suit at the beach because going to the beach was going to kill us all?

And now, according to this article, NOT going to the beach is going to be detrimental.

The truth is nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with covid once it starts cooling off.  I wish people would stop pretending they do
 
2020-08-10 5:57:03 PM  

freddyV: But Trump said hot weather will kill it off


It never got hot.
And Trump is a idiot.
 
2020-08-10 5:57:49 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: You ever notice how people just make this stuff up as they go?

Remember back in the spring when that guy dressed in the grim reaper suit at the beach because going to the beach was going to kill us all?

And now, according to this article, NOT going to the beach is going to be detrimental.

The truth is nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with covid once it starts cooling off.  I wish people would stop pretending they do


Raw dawg this biatch!
 
2020-08-10 5:58:04 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: You ever notice how people just make this stuff up as they go?

Remember back in the spring when that guy dressed in the grim reaper suit at the beach because going to the beach was going to kill us all?

And now, according to this article, NOT going to the beach is going to be detrimental.

The truth is nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with covid once it starts cooling off.  I wish people would stop pretending they do


Your reading comprehension skills suck.
 
2020-08-10 5:58:58 PM  

BizarreMan: I thought it closed 3 months ago.


More like November of 2016 it was closed off.
 
2020-08-10 6:00:07 PM  

NotThatGuyAgain: Truth be known, new cases by day has been dropping for about two weeks now from an 'entire US' perspective.  Georgia looks to be leveling off (let's give that another week...), Cali's numbers are going down....it's not all doom and gloom.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/

I'm hunkering down, I wear a mask when shopping, but I have to say that with the number of people I've seen without masks (varies depending on where I shop) I'd think cases here in Georgia would be exploding.  They're not.


It's truly a miracle, and to think, the only thing we had to start doing differently 2 weeks ago was stop reporting the case numbers to the CDC!

We should have done that back in March!
 
2020-08-10 6:01:07 PM  
NotThatGuyAgain:
I'm hunkering down, I wear a mask when shopping, but I have to say that with the number of people I've seen without masks (varies depending on where I shop) I'd think cases here in Georgia would be exploding.  They're not.

They will, in 2-3 weeks
rinse, repeat
Americans are dumber than...
 
2020-08-10 6:05:04 PM  

freddyV: But Trump said hot weather will kill it off


What he meant was that during the hot weather, it would kill us off.
 
2020-08-10 6:07:25 PM  
Buckee, the Harvard expert, wonders if the magical thinking that seems to have infected swaths of the country is due to the fact many of the people who have died were elderly. For many Americans, she said, the disease has not yet touched their lives - but the movement restrictions and other response measures have. "I think if children were dying, this would be ... a different situation, quite honestly," she said.

I doubt it. My parents lived during a time when virtually every child was expected to have a case of the measles. Some children even died from it. There was never the suggestion that everything grind to a halt to stop the spread of that disease.
 
2020-08-10 6:09:15 PM  

AeAe: Beat back covid? Its too late. Our only hope now is a vaccine.


Imagine a dystopian sci-fi novel about a pandemic virus that hits the world and the only way to kill it off is for people to

1. Wear a mask
2. Stay 6 feet away from each other
3. No person-to-person physical contact (with strangers: can do it within a family)

And to do that for just 6 weeks straight. Sounds simple, right?

Here in the US, we're farked.
 
2020-08-10 6:11:17 PM  

Captain Shaky: NotThatGuyAgain: Truth be known, new cases by day has been dropping for about two weeks now from an 'entire US' perspective.  Georgia looks to be leveling off (let's give that another week...), Cali's numbers are going down....it's not all doom and gloom.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/

I'm hunkering down, I wear a mask when shopping, but I have to say that with the number of people I've seen without masks (varies depending on where I shop) I'd think cases here in Georgia would be exploding.  They're not.

It's truly a miracle, and to think, the only thing we had to start doing differently 2 weeks ago was stop reporting the case numbers to the CDC!

We should have done that back in March!


Yep. I'm wondering what exactly they are doing. I don't understand what the problem is with my state's reporting. It would be one thing for the federal numbers to be lower than state numbers, but the state numbers are way down.

Since the beginning I've watched daily totals in MS. Before Memorial Day and July 4th, we consistently had an average of about 250-450 cases per day. It went up to 600+ shortly after those holidays and grew ever since. Over 1000 was the new normal.

Now, about the same time as the federal accounting changed, the governor did institute a hard mask mandate. However out case numbers immediately dropped, without any lag time. I could almost believe the numbers if they started declining now, two weeks after the mandate, but we are at pre-holiday numbers again.

That alongside a 25% positivity rate does not add up at all, unless we are now severely restricting who gets tested or someone is actively slowing down tests. I don't know ignoring it may be some sort of criteria thing, but a positive test isn't positive, and you can't hide that.

So again I'm not sure how they are screening with the numbers, but they are not right.
 
ENS
2020-08-10 6:11:22 PM  
Images of thousands of defiant, maskless Strugis attendees were flashing across the TV news this morning and I could only rub my temples and accept that we're stupid and doomed.
 
2020-08-10 6:14:06 PM  

NotThatGuyAgain: Truth be known, new cases by day has been dropping for about two weeks now from an 'entire US' perspective.  Georgia looks to be leveling off (let's give that another week...), Cali's numbers are going down....it's not all doom and gloom.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavi​rus/country/us/

I'm hunkering down, I wear a mask when shopping, but I have to say that with the number of people I've seen without masks (varies depending on where I shop) I'd think cases here in Georgia would be exploding.  They're not.


I don't know what you're posting, but GA is #5 on the list I have.

It's not good.  I wouldn't be downplaying this shiat.

https://ncov2019.live/data
 
2020-08-10 6:14:58 PM  
The window was closed when people decided to leave Trump in office to bungle things. It's all down hill since then and only going to get worse before it gets better.
 
2020-08-10 6:15:19 PM  

wademh: I wonder if people's heightened awareness of good public hygiene right now will help lessen the severity of the regular flu spread this year.


The tactics to combat the two are pretty similar.
 
2020-08-10 6:17:25 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: Remember back in the spring when that guy dressed in the grim reaper suit at the beach because going to the beach was going to kill us all?

And now, according to this article, NOT going to the beach is going to be detrimental.


Going to the beach = good.

Large numbers of people going to the beach and not social distancing = bad.
 
2020-08-10 6:19:01 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: You ever notice how people just make this stuff up as they go?

Remember back in the spring when that guy dressed in the grim reaper suit at the beach because going to the beach was going to kill us all?

And now, according to this article, NOT going to the beach is going to be detrimental.

The truth is nobody knows what the hell is going to happen with covid once it starts cooling off.  I wish people would stop pretending they do


I'm really getting sick of your ignorance.  If this is a joke account, you're not funny, you're pathetic.
 
2020-08-10 6:19:09 PM  

mrmopar5287: Buckee, the Harvard expert, wonders if the magical thinking that seems to have infected swaths of the country is due to the fact many of the people who have died were elderly. For many Americans, she said, the disease has not yet touched their lives - but the movement restrictions and other response measures have. "I think if children were dying, this would be ... a different situation, quite honestly," she said.

I doubt it. My parents lived during a time when virtually every child was expected to have a case of the measles. Some children even died from it. There was never the suggestion that everything grind to a halt to stop the spread of that disease.


...and that's why millions of people died of it. And that we had measles all the way until the late 70s here in the US. But back then, prior to the 70s, people were essentially isolated. Virtually nobody was flying, whereas today, people fly all the time. People lived in their town their whole life and never visited even the neighboring city or neighboring large metropolis. You could live in San Mateo and never travel into San Francisco, just 20 miles to the north. So if there were a measles outbreak in San Mateo (and measles has an R0 = 12!) it probably won't ever reach San Francisco ever.

If it weren't for the fact that people were already naturally isolated, instead of millions dying of some disease like measles, it would have been hundreds of millions.

Today, people drive from Tracy and Turlock and Milpitas to San Francisco on a daily basis, because they can't afford to live in San Francisco yet they have a job requiring them to be there. And in between, they might stop by Pleasant Hill or Livermore or Redwood City on their way home because those once sleepy towns of yesterday now has a somewhat vibrant night life with bars and restaurants and music.

In conclusion, to avoid what did happen back 40+ years ago where thousands would die, we do need to shelter in place because our current way of living, with so much more interactions among people, would not kill thousands but perhaps millions.
 
2020-08-10 6:28:19 PM  
You all know what you have to do:

1. National lockdown for 4-6 weeks (at least!) - rigorously policed with people getting massive fines for breaching;
2. Pay people to stay at home;
3. Give small businesses lifelines so they start afloat during the lockdown;
4. Massive rent relief programs.

But too many people are choosing leisure over saving lives.

Because nobody wants to do it, the politicians won't do it - it'd be career suicide for them if they did.

And the longer you let it go on, the larger the national reservoir of infection will be, so the longer the lockdown will have to continue to eradicate the virus from the community.

If you don't do it:

1. It will become endemic and become a deadlier version of the seasonal flu;
2. You are already carrying the burdens of high rates of avoidable chronic diseases in the US, such as obesity, diabetes, addiction, etc. This will be like throwing nationwide malaria on top of that;
3. The US will become an 'infected state' that other countries will restrict travel to and from, which will impact your imports and exports;
4. Talent will no longer be attracted to the US.

Face it, until you restrict the disease, your economy just isn't going to recover.

To be honest, if Biden came in and acted like a one-term President and committed electoral suicide by shutting down the economy for 2 months and then spent the rest of his term rebuilding before retiring, he'd do the nation a huge favour.
 
2020-08-10 6:34:58 PM  

ansius: 1. National lockdown for 4-6 weeks (at least!) - rigorously policed with people getting massive fines for breaching;
2. Pay people to stay at home;
3. Give small businesses lifelines so they start afloat during the lockdown;
4. Massive rent relief programs.


I think you really need a few more things.

5. Food delivery during lockdown. National Guard may be able to do this.
6. Weekly household testing. This has got to be free of charge.
7. Hotel/retreat quarantine for positive cases. Don't let positive cases linger at home. Give them a comfortable place to go to wait out the disease.

This all costs a lot of money and is very intrusive on individual rights, but these are extraordinary times and extraordinary measures may need to be taken. However, in 4-6 weeks, you'd have reduced the number of positive cases to something manageable.

It all hinges on having a manageable number to begin with, though, and at this point we are way beyond that.
 
2020-08-10 6:41:42 PM  

dothemath: We Ate the Necco Wafers: The secret to the flu is that the same measures that will protect you from COVID will be very effective with the flu too.

Wear a mask
Wash your hands
Keep physical distance between you and others

So what youre saying is we are farked.


lh3.googleusercontent.comView Full Size
 
2020-08-10 6:43:09 PM  
We thought we had the flu when we got the covid last October .
 
2020-08-10 6:52:15 PM  
Stibium:

These counts don't come from any federal source.  The Mississippi Dept. of health (the state's office) provides a number every day, as has been the case since the beginning.

When Reeves issued the mask order on August 4th, the 7 day average was already in a pretty steep decline that started on 7/30.

It's actually pretty simple.  The virus has followed a similar pattern everywhere its hit.  You get a sharp increase in cases, and then over time it declines (for whatever reason)

In places you can trust the numbers that are reported (Europe, individual states in the US) there's a big increase, then a decline.  Same thing in MS right now.
 
2020-08-10 7:06:31 PM  
FTA-  "I think if children were dying, this would be ... a different situation, quite honestly," she said.

This quote is from what the article describes as a "Harvard expert".

One lady, sitting in an office at Harvard not having a clue what life is actually like for most people on the planet and she thinks it's everybody else who suffers from "magical thinking"

She's exactly right though.  If children and young people were dying things WOULD be different.

Unfortunately, for most of humanity, they can't afford to discontinue life as it's been previously known because a slightly higher than usual percentage of already sick and and elderly people passed away.

And maybe you think that's cold.  Unfortunately it's the harsh reality of the world.

The only people suffering from magical thinking are the people who think the entire rest of society should cater to the whims of whatever some lady at Harvard thinks is the right thing to do.
 
2020-08-10 7:14:04 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: Stibium:

These counts don't come from any federal source.  The Mississippi Dept. of health (the state's office) provides a number every day, as has been the case since the beginning.

When Reeves issued the mask order on August 4th, the 7 day average was already in a pretty steep decline that started on 7/30.

It's actually pretty simple.  The virus has followed a similar pattern everywhere its hit.  You get a sharp increase in cases, and then over time it declines (for whatever reason)

In places you can trust the numbers that are reported (Europe, individual states in the US) there's a big increase, then a decline.  Same thing in MS right now.


We've had a steady increase, and then suddenly a massive and magical decrease in cases. It's possible that the decline is real, and that previous numbers were knock-ons from the holidays.

However, if the numbers are to be trusted, why is the positivity rate the highest in the nation? That suggests testing isn't keeping up with the pace of the actual infections.

Those two things, declining case numbers and increasing positivity rates, simply do not square with each other. If positivity is going up, either testing is being rationed for sicker people or fewer tests are being conducted in general. If it is the former, our numbers should be higher to reflect that. If it's the latter, then we are pretty well screwed going into school season.

So, I'm sincerely asking, why is the positivity rate so high if the numbers are back to pre-holiday figures and dropping?
 
2020-08-10 7:14:39 PM  
So staying home in April and May helps prevent spread but staying home in December, January and February leads to Covid spreading?
 
2020-08-10 7:26:42 PM  

waxbeans: freddyV: But Trump said hot weather will kill it off

It never got hot.
And Trump is a idiot.


And he's now claiming that the CDC, not him. Watch him say that cold kills it.
 
2020-08-10 7:38:42 PM  
Stibium:

"The positivity rate calculated for each state "looks at number of cases divided by number of negative tests plus number of cases. We feel that the ideal way to calculate positivity would be number of people who test positive divided by number of people who are tested," Johns Hopkins University noted."

(From a Newsweek article Fark mobile won't let me post)

So apparently we are all counting positivity in an ass-backwards and very stupid way thanks to other states that include the wrong tests and multiple cases against the same person.

So, to crunch numbers, we have about 68,000 cases. Which means the number of negatives are about 250,000. Positives to negatives is therefore about 27%, which is even worse.

So if the positivity rate is increasing, it means that negative results are indeed decreasing even faster, which, again, means we are losing ground.

So how does that dovetail with what we are currently seeing, where the case numbers are now half of what they were just a couple weeks ago? Are we going to magically see case positivity take a nosedive? Right when schools are opening?

I don't see how these two things fit. But we'll see in a couple weeks. We've already had school outbreaks, and most of the schools aren't even open yet.
 
2020-08-10 7:43:16 PM  
I'm 99% certain that a mutation causing two viruses to conjoin is called a "donald."
 
2020-08-10 7:46:30 PM  

We Ate the Necco Wafers: ansius: 1. National lockdown for 4-6 weeks (at least!) - rigorously policed with people getting massive fines for breaching;
2. Pay people to stay at home;
3. Give small businesses lifelines so they start afloat during the lockdown;
4. Massive rent relief programs.

I think you really need a few more things.

5. Food delivery during lockdown. National Guard may be able to do this.
6. Weekly household testing. This has got to be free of charge.
7. Hotel/retreat quarantine for positive cases. Don't let positive cases linger at home. Give them a comfortable place to go to wait out the disease.

This all costs a lot of money and is very intrusive on individual rights, but these are extraordinary times and extraordinary measures may need to be taken. However, in 4-6 weeks, you'd have reduced the number of positive cases to something manageable.

It all hinges on having a manageable number to begin with, though, and at this point we are way beyond that.


I agree with your additions entirely. Here in Australia, the outbreak in Melbourne is being treated just like this. Nightly curfews, increased social services, free testing, etc.

And it was caused by an outbreak at a quarantine hotel because of lax oversight and training of security.
 
2020-08-10 7:46:52 PM  
Stibium:

https://www.wlbt.com/2020/08/02/harva​r​d-health-official-miss-will-become-num​ber-one-nation-covid-/

So we are doing less testing and more people are getting sick. Fancy that!

So it indeed looks like we are fudging the numbers by testing less. Just in time for Jimmy to go back to school.
 
2020-08-10 7:48:16 PM  

dericwater: AeAe: Beat back covid? Its too late. Our only hope now is a vaccine.

Imagine a dystopian sci-fi novel about a pandemic virus that hits the world and the only way to kill it off is for people to

1. Wear a mask
2. Stay 6 feet away from each other
3. No person-to-person physical contact (with strangers: can do it within a family)

And to do that for just 6 weeks straight. Sounds simple, right?

Here in the US, we're farked.


You see what's going on in those red states. We are farked.
 
2020-08-10 7:54:51 PM  

mrmopar5287: Buckee, the Harvard expert, wonders if the magical thinking that seems to have infected swaths of the country is due to the fact many of the people who have died were elderly. For many Americans, she said, the disease has not yet touched their lives - but the movement restrictions and other response measures have. "I think if children were dying, this would be ... a different situation, quite honestly," she said.

I doubt it. My parents lived during a time when virtually every child was expected to have a case of the measles. Some children even died from it. There was never the suggestion that everything grind to a halt to stop the spread of that disease.


Oh yeah?
 
2020-08-10 7:57:11 PM  

GrizzlyPouch: FTA-  "I think if children were dying, this would be ... a different situation, quite honestly," she said.

This quote is from what the article describes as a "Harvard expert".

One lady, sitting in an office at Harvard not having a clue what life is actually like for most people on the planet and she thinks it's everybody else who suffers from "magical thinking"

She's exactly right though.  If children and young people were dying things WOULD be different.

Unfortunately, for most of humanity, they can't afford to discontinue life as it's been previously known because a slightly higher than usual percentage of already sick and and elderly people passed away.

And maybe you think that's cold.  Unfortunately it's the harsh reality of the world.

The only people suffering from magical thinking are the people who think the entire rest of society should cater to the whims of whatever some lady at Harvard thinks is the right thing to do.


Sandy Hook dude.  No one cared when those kids were gunned down.  They don't care if whole kindergartens die from this.  Freeeeeeeeeeeedom.
 
2020-08-10 8:18:14 PM  
I also want to point out that the hospitalization rate is pretty stable:
http://www.msdh.state.ms.us/msdhsite/​i​ndex.cfm/14,21994,420,873,html
There is no drop like you see in cases. So that means either the daily reported numbers are completely wrong, or the virus suddenly became much deadlier. Given California's debacle with HHS reporting, it seems likely the dailies here are also undercounted.
 
2020-08-10 8:36:35 PM  
Stibium:

Disregard. Those aren't dailies like I was thinking. The data is so screwed up it's hard to make a lot of sense, especially when the important stuff isn't presented.

I still maintain the numbers are screwed up, though. We'll just have to wait and see.
 
2020-08-10 8:57:04 PM  

wademh: I wonder if people's heightened awareness of good public hygiene right now will help lessen the severity of the regular flu spread this year.


Yes.  At least locally this is happening.
 
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