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(ElectoralVote)   With all the various polling stories out there, let's ask a more relevant question: "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" Lucky for us, there's a handy chart for that   (electoral-vote.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, President of the United States, Voting, United States presidential election, 2008, United States Senate, given state, Wyoming, Delaware, State  
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5280 clicks; posted to Politics » on 09 Aug 2020 at 10:38 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



145 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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2020-08-09 8:55:52 AM  
It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.
 
2020-08-09 8:59:28 AM  
See those red states?
How about they lose all their aid?
Oh that's right. A democrat wouldn't do that to fellow Americans.
And if one did, the rest of the democrats would chuck him or her under the bus.
 
2020-08-09 9:02:37 AM  

wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.


Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.
 
2020-08-09 9:11:31 AM  

Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-09 9:36:18 AM  

wademh: Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.

[Fark user image 850x325]


I'd recommend looking at 538's polling averages when accounting for pollster quality (based on historical accuracy and bias ratings). It's a good way to filter out bad polls (of which Trafalgar is one). That's not to say that you aren't right... I do think that Trump will ultimately carry Texas, but it's very much in play; controlling for poll bias and quality helps show that.
 
2020-08-09 9:36:57 AM  

Kubo: wademh: Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.

[Fark user image 850x325]

I'd recommend looking at 538's polling averages when accounting for pollster quality (based on historical accuracy and bias ratings). It's a good way to filter out bad polls (of which Trafalgar is one). That's not to say that you aren't right... I do think that Trump will ultimately carry Texas, but it's very much in play; controlling for poll bias and quality helps show that.


Linky pop
 
2020-08-09 9:52:26 AM  

wademh: Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.

[Fark user image 850x325]


Care to link back to your source for this chart?

Here's the E-V info: https://electoral-vote.com/evp2​020/Pre​s/Graphs/texas.html

electoral-vote.comView Full Size


As has been mentioned already, reliable polling is the key. And the E-V guys have a well-earned reputation for accuracy and non-bias in data.
 
2020-08-09 9:56:34 AM  
Looks like Joe should hire that woman from Michigan
 
2020-08-09 10:18:39 AM  
He won't have to go into them at all.  His postmaster general will make sure none of the mail-in ballots are counted and Russians will hack the voting machines. Stroke Man knows there are nice accommodations waiting for him (and his family and circle of puppets but really does not care about most of them) should he know longer remain in office.  As long as he is alive, his cohorts will find a way for him to win and if he does not, good help the US for the 77 says up until inauguration day (77 instead of 78 as I was not including inauguration day itself)
 
2020-08-09 10:22:10 AM  

edmo: Looks like Joe should hire that woman from Michigan


Nah, he's got Michigan locked up.  He needs to find a smart candidate from Florida.

/ yes, that was a joke.
 
2020-08-09 10:41:24 AM  
Trump promised to scrap Medicare and Social Security.

He's a threat to American stability.

If he cuts Medicare, unmedicated paranoid psychotics will eat Donald J Trump's face.
 
2020-08-09 10:42:36 AM  
Buy Guns, liberal folks.

DO IT.
 
2020-08-09 10:42:53 AM  

edmo: Looks like Joe should hire that woman from Michigan


I still agree...if she can help Biden carry Michigan, I don't see a path for a Trump win.
 
2020-08-09 10:43:14 AM  
The chart is easy.

Map the will for evil.

There you go.

/VOTE
 
2020-08-09 10:43:14 AM  
Translation: Not very far at all.
 
2020-08-09 10:46:17 AM  
Interesting - we were discussing here yesterday on the Whitmer thread about whether or not Trump had a path to victory that didn't include MI. According to this chart, MI is the bare minimum he needs - I mean he could switch out the some of the ones above, but obviously they're even further out of reach than even MI looks. And that's assuming that he can hold AZ, Fla, and NC - yeesh.
 
2020-08-09 10:49:35 AM  

casual disregard: The chart is easy.

Map the will for evil.

There you go.

/VOTE


I should qualify my attempted statement at quantity.

This is not a new fight unfortunately. It dates back to before the Roman Empire which itself dates back before the Roman Republic which itself dates back before the Roman Kings which itself dates back to a small farming village.

Now the brothers Grachii argued in front of the Senate that the people of the land should have control of the land. This is important. Because they were both murdered by people who hated that idea. This is important.

They will kill the advocates. They've done it before. They will do it again.

/this is important
 
2020-08-09 10:52:28 AM  

casual disregard: The chart is easy.

Map the will for evil.

There you go.

/VOTE


Your comment is funny, but I don't think any legit map of states' will for evil will have DC and CA at the bottom, like the one in TFA
 
2020-08-09 10:57:25 AM  
Remember, Biden will fall in the polls because horserace, or Trump will find something the voters like.

This page means nothing.
 
2020-08-09 11:01:58 AM  

MysticKakarrott: Remember, Biden will fall in the polls because horserace, or Trump will find something the voters like.

This page means nothing.


Yep. Turn anything light blue into white and medium blue into light blue you have a more realistic picture of what the polls the week before election day will look like. Texas, Florida, and Arizona are all going to be Republican leans when the time comes; wherever you see undecided equal to or larger than the lead, look out.
 
2020-08-09 11:02:19 AM  
JFC, Ohio
 
2020-08-09 11:03:23 AM  
Give Biden one more EV.  Nebraska splits theirs.  1 will go to Biden.  Trump might get the other 4.  But he won't get 5.
 
2020-08-09 11:04:03 AM  

Target Builder: Translation: Not very far at all.


Actual real world translation: pretty damn far, but not out of the realm of possibility.
 
2020-08-09 11:04:49 AM  
Just want to point out that the site in question can't get simple details right. For example, Trump Signs Four Executive Orders On The Economy. I mean, sure, he actually signed just 1 EO & 3 memorandums, and, sure, it's not because of a "complete stalemate between House Democrats and Senate Republicans," and, sure, it's clear that they "usurp powers the Constitution allocates to Congress," but lawsuits aren't needed to deal with them because only one was an actual executive order; the other three can, and most likely will, be ignored.

I'm thinking I can pretty much skip this site with almost insouciant impunity, as they're about as useful as an "unskewed poll."
 
2020-08-09 11:05:56 AM  

MysticKakarrott: Remember, Biden will fall in the polls because horserace, or Trump will find something the voters like.

This page means nothing.


How?
Another one sentence long "change in tone?"
Another campaign "shakeup?"
Infrastructure week?
Trump isn't going to stop being Trump and the American people aren't going to stop being angry.
 
2020-08-09 11:07:47 AM  

RasIanI: Interesting - we were discussing here yesterday on the Whitmer thread about whether or not Trump had a path to victory that didn't include MI. According to this chart, MI is the bare minimum he needs - I mean he could switch out the some of the ones above, but obviously they're even further out of reach than even MI looks. And that's assuming that he can hold AZ, Fla, and NC - yeesh.


Not "yeesh", the correct answer is "WOO HOO!!!!!"
 
2020-08-09 11:12:26 AM  
Overall a fairly promising picture. Even if you assume all the white and light blue go to Trump - and for various reasons, I do - Biden is well over the hump with just the deep blue and medium blue states, whereas Trump falls well short.

That, of course, assumes Florida and Arizona actually go blue. With that, I am doubtful.

The bottom line is that it's more of an uphill climb for Trump at the moment than it is for Biden.

I do think it will tighten dramatically, though, and once you factor voter suppression efforts and dirty tricks into the mix ...
 
2020-08-09 11:13:04 AM  

vudukungfu: See those red states?
How about they lose all their aid?
Oh that's right. A democrat wouldn't do that to fellow Americans.
And if one did, the rest of the democrats would chuck him or her under the bus.


Didn't do the math yet but looking at the list tells me there is a reasonably solid majority of Biden voters compared to votes for the deplorable one.

The majority of Americans have not been represented properly since 2016. A minority elected the president. A minority shoved a scad of activist judges  into the federal court system. A minority has usurped law enforcement. A minority dumped trillions into business with breadcrumbs for the populace.

Majority rules, minority rights has been in the garbage can as the lawless minority continues to threaten with violence and force. I say all red states should have their federal funds reduced by 33% except Kentucky which should be nuked from space.

Trump and Turtle have been wielding power with an iron fist. There should be no way for 2 people should be able to ruin the lives for a majority of the population.

Lies and misdirection and distractions. 

I'll be dead before this mess gets straightened out. There had better be mass prosecutions for treason, extortion, Hatch Act violations, etc.
 
2020-08-09 11:15:46 AM  
This map does not account for hacking, suppression, USPS farkery, does it?
 
2020-08-09 11:16:56 AM  
I still think there's a minuscule chance that Trump will win re-election legitimately, but the problem is that there's a fairly high chance that he won't have to.
 
2020-08-09 11:17:20 AM  

FormlessOne: Just want to point out that the site in question can't get simple details right. For example, Trump Signs Four Executive Orders On The Economy. I mean, sure, he actually signed just 1 EO & 3 memorandums, and, sure, it's not because of a "complete stalemate between House Democrats and Senate Republicans," and, sure, it's clear that they "usurp powers the Constitution allocates to Congress," but lawsuits aren't needed to deal with them because only one was an actual executive order; the other three can, and most likely will, be ignored.

I'm thinking I can pretty much skip this site with almost insouciant impunity, as they're about as useful as an "unskewed poll."


You'd be missing out, seriously.

If you're that concerned write them an email, I guess. You won't be the only one, and they'll either correct it or explain why they chose the language they did.
 
2020-08-09 11:19:15 AM  

AsparagusFTW: This map does not account for hacking, suppression, USPS farkery, does it?


He's the hero we need, but not the one we deserve...
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-09 11:21:59 AM  

RabidRythmDivas: Give Biden one more EV.  Nebraska splits theirs.  1 will go to Biden.  Trump might get the other 4.  But he won't get 5.


But he'll likely give that one back with Maine splitting their's. So it's a wash.
 
2020-08-09 11:24:34 AM  

AsparagusFTW: This map does not account for hacking, suppression, USPS farkery, does it?


It does not. And we clearly need to be worried about that. The margin in 2016 was so razor-thin in several key states, it wouldn't take much to tip things one way or another. A bunch of ballots in an urban center mysteriously end up in a landfill? Ooops. And democracy dies.

Pandemic or not, I'm voting in person. I fully support mail-in ballots, but I want to know my vote landed where it's supposed to, and the USPS is now deeply compromised.
 
2020-08-09 11:28:08 AM  
With all the smarter voters leaving blue territories in droves, does this really matter?
 
2020-08-09 11:28:13 AM  
I'm sitting over here wondering, what does it matter who wins the presidency.
 
2020-08-09 11:29:41 AM  

Kangaroo_Ralph: With all the smarter voters leaving blue territories in droves, does this really matter?


No, it wouldn't.
Theoretically, anyway.
 
2020-08-09 11:30:42 AM  

Kangaroo_Ralph: smarter voters leaving blue territories in droves


What?
 
2020-08-09 11:31:17 AM  

Man On A Mission: Target Builder: Translation: Not very far at all.

Actual real world translation: pretty damn far, but not out of the realm of possibility.


Also doesn't figure in russian interference.
 
2020-08-09 11:31:25 AM  
I don't give a damn about these polling reports as long as I don't need to watch some no-talent ass clown in a red sweater get famous because he just really can't decide.
 
2020-08-09 11:32:24 AM  

rohar: I'm sitting over here wondering, what does it matter who wins the presidency.


Weak. I live with my mom
 
2020-08-09 11:33:00 AM  

MadHatter500: rohar: I'm sitting over here wondering, what does it matter who wins the presidency.

Weak. I live with my mom


I see that fark filter is alive and well - yes, that was a test, though your troll attempt was weak.
 
2020-08-09 11:37:27 AM  

shoegaze99: Pandemic or not, I'm voting in person. I fully support mail-in ballots, but I want to know my vote landed where it's supposed to, and the USPS is now deeply compromised.


Here in Colorado where we have universal mail-in, you can always drop it off in ballot collection boxes and save the postage and any potential delays.  I would assume other states do the same.
 
2020-08-09 11:38:15 AM  

psilocyberguy: vudukungfu: See those red states?
How about they lose all their aid?
Oh that's right. A democrat wouldn't do that to fellow Americans.
And if one did, the rest of the democrats would chuck him or her under the bus.

Didn't do the math yet but looking at the list tells me there is a reasonably solid majority of Biden voters compared to votes for the deplorable one.

The majority of Americans have not been represented properly since 2016. A minority elected the president. A minority shoved a scad of activist judges  into the federal court system. A minority has usurped law enforcement. A minority dumped trillions into business with breadcrumbs for the populace.

Majority rules, minority rights has been in the garbage can as the lawless minority continues to threaten with violence and force. I say all red states should have their federal funds reduced by 33% except Kentucky which should be nuked from space.

Trump and Turtle have been wielding power with an iron fist. There should be no way for 2 people should be able to ruin the lives for a majority of the population.

Lies and misdirection and distractions. 

I'll be dead before this mess gets straightened out. There had better be mass prosecutions for treason, extortion, Hatch Act violations, etc.


People should hang
 
2020-08-09 11:38:54 AM  

Flerkenpie070: Kangaroo_Ralph: smarter voters leaving blue territories in droves

What?


I said "With all the smarter voters leaving blue territories in droves, does this really matter?"
 
2020-08-09 11:46:07 AM  

Man On A Mission: wademh: Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.

[Fark user image 850x325]

Care to link back to your source for this chart?

Here's the E-V info: https://electoral-vote.com/evp20​20/Pres/Graphs/texas.html

[electoral-vote.com image 850x240]


What's surprising about this graph is that the numbers don't change much throughout the onset of the pandemic.  It's like it's no biggie to Texan MAGATS.
 
2020-08-09 11:46:12 AM  
Blue Texas. Ignored.
 
2020-08-09 11:46:28 AM  

Kubo: wademh: Man On A Mission: wademh: It takes some special selective cherry picking of data to have Texas favored to go for Biden.

Or you could use actual polling. Which they have, and even they have maintained all along they'll believe Texas is blue only once it votes that way. But the last two months of polling in Texas does indeed have Biden and Trump within the margin of error of each other.

[Fark user image 850x325]

I'd recommend looking at 538's polling averages when accounting for pollster quality (based on historical accuracy and bias ratings). It's a good way to filter out bad polls (of which Trafalgar is one). That's not to say that you aren't right... I do think that Trump will ultimately carry Texas, but it's very much in play; controlling for poll bias and quality helps show that.


With Texas being close either way, that means Trump is dumping a ton of cash there that he could be using in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is absolutely vital to flip those 4 states.
 
2020-08-09 11:46:29 AM  

Flerkenpie070: Buy Guns, liberal folks.

DO IT.


Don't forget the ammo.
 
2020-08-09 11:46:47 AM  

OhioUGrad: JFC, Ohio


Yup.  There's no way in hell Biden wins this godforsaken state.
 
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