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(Quinnipiac University)   New Polls show that Sen Collins is running behind her Democratic challenger, Lindsey Graham is neck and neck with his, and McConnell is only leading McGrath by 5, just 2 points more than the margin of error. This is the Holy Trinity of "Oh Please"   (poll.qu.edu) divider line
    More: Spiffy, United States Senate, Republican Party, percent backing McGrath, Mitch McConnell, Vice President of the United States, KY ME SC, Democratic Party, high-profile Senate races  
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509 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Aug 2020 at 6:43 AM (6 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-08-07 3:46:17 AM  
A lot of people are saying that the Jewish vote is being dismissed in this polling...
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2020-08-07 4:14:32 AM  
Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

That scenario above is maybe not exactly probable, but it is not unlikely, either. That should be enough to absolutely crater all GOP support across the board.  We're already seeing multiple polls showing Trump is sliding across the board, even among rural whites (who he is still winning but by about 8 points less than he did in 2016). That makes Arizona and Colorado gimmes, Montana and Maine and Iowa and North Carolina solid wins, Georgia Regular and South Carolina lean blue, and with a little bit of luck Kentucky and Kansas and Texas might go blue too.

It really would not take much to make this a catastrophic election for the GOP. Here's hoping. Of course, there's also the freak random occurrence that they somehow pull it off a second time, but that is looking less and less likely.

Why am I increasingly confident (and yet paranoid at the same time)? Because of Texas.

Biden's polls show him ahead in Texas. Yes, it's within the margin of error. Yes, it's only one point. Yes, they'll cheat. Yes, they might pull a rabbit out of a hat and it wouldn't take much to flip Texas back to red.

Yeah, I know. I'm not talking about Texas. I'm saying it's a signpost. And one hell of a large one. If you're any Republican in 2020 and you're losing in poll after poll in Texas, yeah, you could spend a ton of cash or miraculously solve world peace and end up winning Texas in the fall, yeah, you could.

But that is one deep dark damn hole you are in if you are a Republican trailing right now in Texas. You could win Texas. Sure. But win it all? Win enough electoral votes to actually win? If you're fighting tooth and nail in Texas this late in the ball game, nah, you're going to have to do something extraordinary to turn this thing around.

If you're fighting in Texas, one, that's a huge market you don't want to have to burn through cash to cover, two, if you're fighting in Texas, you're alreadyfighting tooth and nail in Georgia, in North Carolina, in Iowa, in Wisconsin, in Arizona, in Michigan, and in Pennsylvania. You're going to be burning through a lot of cash very, very quickly, and Biden already just bought over $280 million of ads. Now, you can say "eh no problem, we can spend twice that". No, you don't get it. There's a finite amount of ad space. I'm not sure what percentage Biden just snagged while these boneheads were trying to fudge the numbers on coronavirus deathsand expose thousands of children to the coronavirus because that makes sense, but I'd bet they don't understand you need to buy up that ad space NOW.
 
2020-08-07 5:02:45 AM  
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2020-08-07 6:47:07 AM  
Putin will not be pleased with this information...
 
2020-08-07 6:54:50 AM  
Polls conducted in August for a November election are pretty meaningless.

If these numbers hold in October, I might become semi-aroused but nothing until then.
 
2020-08-07 6:55:50 AM  

Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.


Try not to sound too excited about the downfall of your own country...
 
2020-08-07 6:57:08 AM  
I am concerned.
 
2020-08-07 7:06:01 AM  
If this was mid October thkse polls might mean something.
 
2020-08-07 7:20:43 AM  

Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: If you're fighting in Texas, one, that's a huge market you don't want to have to burn through cash to cover, two, if you're fighting in Texas, you're alreadyfighting tooth and nail in Georgia, in North Carolina, in Iowa, in Wisconsin, in Arizona, in Michigan, and in Pennsylvania. You're going to be burning through a lot of cash very, very quickly, and Biden already just bought over $280 million of ads. Now, you can say "eh no problem, we can spend twice that". No, you don't get it. There's a finite amount of ad space. I'm not sure what percentage Biden just snagged while these boneheads were trying to fudge the numbers on coronavirus deathsand expose thousands of children to the coronavirus because that makes sense, but I'd bet they don't understand you need to buy up that ad space NOW.


Also, the war chest does have a bottom. Which means every extra ad Trump's campaign has to buy for Amarillo is one less ad for Des Moines, one more in Wichita Falls is one less in Grand Rapids. And less attention from Trump's campaign in those markets tarnishes the down-ticket Senate and House races.

Conservative analysts are going to spend decades analyzing what happens in November. I think most of them will conclude that removing Trump from office and putting Pence in the top spot would have mathematically helped down-ticket races, and sticking with him ultimately lost a ton of seats.

Or, you know, they'll just blame Democrats for everything. They don't take responsibility at all.
 
2020-08-07 7:29:34 AM  
I have no faith in the American voter to look at what Trump has done in 4 years and vote him out.   The trumphumpers who made their own little navy on the rivers waving his banner says it all: "I'm white, still living the good life and he is sticking it to everyone else."

And the white guys who can't afford the boat and look on with envy: " Well, one day I might but not with a Dem in the White House."
 
2020-08-07 7:30:24 AM  
My Maine prediction: Collins used to get by with the Republicans, and independent vote with even some democrats voting for her. If Trump wasn't in the picture, she could have pretended to still "be concerned" all the time. The alt-right republicans have actually hated her more than liked her in the past, now they are going to hold their noses to vote for her if they even bother to vote. She is no Margaret Chase Smith.
 
2020-08-07 7:32:46 AM  

Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.


Twice that is more than worth it if it gets tRump out of the White House.
 
2020-08-07 7:32:54 AM  
Yeah but that doesn't take into account decades of voter ratfarking by McConnel and co-conspirators.
 
2020-08-07 7:34:43 AM  

God_Almighty_Himself: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

Twice that is more than worth it if it gets tRump out of the White House.


I'd be happy to see the Senate, House,and Presidency switch without wanting another 100,000+ COVID deaths.

I'm weird that way.
 
2020-08-07 7:41:07 AM  
As the great political consultant Winston Wolf said, " lets dont start sucking each others dicks yet."


We still have whatever October Surprise to get through. Plus vote suppression in several forms.  Plus remote logins to vote networks in several key states to massage the totals without any audit trail they did it.
 
2020-08-07 7:41:19 AM  
I don't buy it until December. Between recounts, lawsuits, and just the delay in counting votes, I don't buy anything until December.
 
2020-08-07 7:42:44 AM  

Shaggy_C: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

Try not to sound too excited about the downfall of your own country...


Weren't you celebrating the deaths in new york? Pretty sure you and your I'll can crawl back under that rock you emerged from and take your shiat takes with you.
 
2020-08-07 7:52:04 AM  
I donated the measly $36 in Trump Bux stimulus I got to McGrath. Fark Yertle and the GOP.
 
2020-08-07 7:54:28 AM  
I can't see McConnell losing. I'll settle for him being out of power.
 
2020-08-07 7:56:43 AM  
Not to get too cocky but Hagar is about 5% away from Cornyn. Some polls have her closer.

I'm hoping that this election is not just a blue wave but a blue tsunami and it carries her along with it.

I've disliked Cornyn since he abandoned the Texans of Tulia (yeah I carry grudges a long time).
 
2020-08-07 8:21:57 AM  
I'm on my second week of living on 200 bucks thanks to McConnell - if people without savings are in the same boat and paying attention, and this doesn't stop soon (and get fixed retroactively), maybe all of them lose.

I'm not that optimistic though. People never pay attention to who actually screwed them. Just blame it on the people they already hate.
 
2020-08-07 8:25:05 AM  
I'm sure the voters in Maine are just all very Concerned, going to take some time to weigh their options, and then vote for Collins anyway.
 
2020-08-07 8:27:00 AM  

bainsguy: I'm sure the voters in Maine are just all very Concerned, going to take some time to weigh their options, and then vote for Collins anyway.


This Mainer is happy to be voting Collins out.
 
2020-08-07 8:30:38 AM  

saywhonow: Weren't you celebrating the deaths in new york? Pretty sure you and your I'll can crawl back under that rock you emerged from and take your shiat takes with you.


Nope. I'm a pro-mask, pro-shutdown kind of guy. Maybe you have me confused with someone else?
 
2020-08-07 8:33:08 AM  
Collins is a RINO anyway, so no loss there.   Lindsay will romp, and you know the Turtle will trample.
 
2020-08-07 8:40:40 AM  

DemonEater: I'm on my second week of living on 200 bucks thanks to McConnell - if people without savings are in the same boat and paying attention, and this doesn't stop soon (and get fixed retroactively), maybe all of them lose.

I'm not that optimistic though. People never pay attention to who actually screwed them. Just blame it on the people they already hate.


Pre-pandemic a Federal Reserve Study found that 60% of US households could not handle a $400 Emergency without borrowing money.   There is going to be a LOT of Hurt by the end of August
 
2020-08-07 8:45:23 AM  
Of those 3, Collins is the only one that actually has a chance of losing. She's a blatant hypocrite, whereas Graham and McConnell are openly rat bastards.
 
2020-08-07 8:48:42 AM  

clkeagle: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: If you're fighting in Texas, one, that's a huge market you don't want to have to burn through cash to cover, two, if you're fighting in Texas, you're alreadyfighting tooth and nail in Georgia, in North Carolina, in Iowa, in Wisconsin, in Arizona, in Michigan, and in Pennsylvania. You're going to be burning through a lot of cash very, very quickly, and Biden already just bought over $280 million of ads. Now, you can say "eh no problem, we can spend twice that". No, you don't get it. There's a finite amount of ad space. I'm not sure what percentage Biden just snagged while these boneheads were trying to fudge the numbers on coronavirus deathsand expose thousands of children to the coronavirus because that makes sense, but I'd bet they don't understand you need to buy up that ad space NOW.

Also, the war chest does have a bottom. Which means every extra ad Trump's campaign has to buy for Amarillo is one less ad for Des Moines, one more in Wichita Falls is one less in Grand Rapids. And less attention from Trump's campaign in those markets tarnishes the down-ticket Senate and House races.

Conservative analysts are going to spend decades analyzing what happens in November. I think most of them will conclude that removing Trump from office and putting Pence in the top spot would have mathematically helped down-ticket races, and sticking with him ultimately lost a ton of seats.

Or, you know, they'll just blame Democrats for everything. They don't take responsibility at all.


Hillary outspent Trump by something like 6 to 1. Money spent is no indicator of likely outcome; most people are fixed in who they will vote for, even if they won't admit it.
 
2020-08-07 8:50:06 AM  

Null Pointer: Not to get too cocky but Hagar is about 5% away from Cornyn. Some polls have her closer.

I'm hoping that this election is not just a blue wave but a blue tsunami and it carries her along with it.

I've disliked Cornyn since he abandoned the Texans of Tulia (yeah I carry grudges a long time).


Hegar....

Let's get her name right, OK?
 
2020-08-07 8:51:03 AM  

Generation_D: As the great political consultant Winston Wolf said, " lets dont start sucking each others dicks yet."


We still have whatever October Surprise to get through. Plus vote suppression in several forms.  Plus remote logins to vote networks in several key states to massage the totals without any audit trail they did it.


Plus Trump doing everything possible to change\ignore the election results if it doesn't go his way.
 
2020-08-07 8:53:11 AM  

Catlenfell: I can't see McConnell losing. I'll settle for him being out of power.


I thought i just seen a poll that had McConnell ahead quite a bit......meh, i cant find it now.    😕
 
2020-08-07 8:53:46 AM  

Null Pointer: Not to get too cocky but Hagar is about 5% away from Cornyn. Some polls have her closer.

I'm hoping that this election is not just a blue wave but a blue tsunami and it carries her along with it.

I've disliked Cornyn since he abandoned the Texans of Tulia (yeah I carry grudges a long time).


Cornyn was one of the few people who voted against Al Franken's "rape victims deserve their day in court bill".
 
2020-08-07 8:56:19 AM  

Cat Food Sandwiches: Collins is a RINO anyway, so no loss there.   Lindsay will romp, and you know the Turtle will trample.


No, Collins pretends to be a RINO to get the "moderate" vote. But when it comes to anything important, she votes with the fascists.
 
2020-08-07 9:20:02 AM  

scanman61: Let's get her name right, OK?


!= Cornyn work?
 
2020-08-07 9:28:21 AM  

LucklessWonder: God_Almighty_Himself: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

Twice that is more than worth it if it gets tRump out of the White House.

I'd be happy to see the Senate, House,and Presidency switch without wanting another 100,000+ COVID deaths.

I'm weird that way.


Also, I fail to see any evidence that the death toll has had any effect on changing republican minds at all.
 
2020-08-07 9:35:19 AM  

toraque: Also, I fail to see any evidence that the death toll has had any effect on changing republican minds at all.


I'm more interested in it changing republicans' living status.
 
2020-08-07 9:37:36 AM  

Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

That scenario above is maybe not exactly probable, but it is not unlikely, either. That should be enough to absolutely crater all GOP support across the board.  We're already seeing multiple polls showing Trump is sliding across the board, even among rural whites (who he is still winning but by about 8 points less than he did in 2016). That makes Arizona and Colorado gimmes, Montana and Maine and Iowa and North Carolina solid wins, Georgia Regular and South Carolina lean blue, and with a little bit of luck Kentucky and Kansas and Texas might go blue too.

It really would not take much to make this a catastrophic election for the GOP. Here's hoping. Of course, there's also the freak random occurrence that they somehow pull it off a second time, but that is looking less and less likely.

Why am I increasingly confident (and yet paranoid at the same time)? Because of Texas.

Biden's polls show him ahead in Texas. Yes, it's within the margin of error. Yes, it's only one point. Yes, they'll cheat. Yes, they might pull a rabbit out of a hat and it wouldn't take much to flip Texas back to red.

Yeah, I know. I'm not talking about Texas. I'm saying it's a signpost. And one hell of a large one. If you're any Republican in 2020 and you're losing in poll after poll in Texas, yeah, you could spend a ton of cash or miraculously solve world peace and end up winning Texas in the fall, yeah, you could.

But that is one deep dark damn hole you are in if you are a Republican trailing right now in Texas. You could win Texas. Sure. But win it all? Win enough electoral votes to actually win? If you're fighting tooth and nail in Texas this late in the ball game, nah, you're going to have to do something extraordinary to turn this thing around.

If you're fighting in Texas, one, that's a huge market you don't want to have to burn through cash to cover, two, if you're fighting in Texas, you're alreadyfighting tooth and nail in Georgia, in North Carolina, in Iowa, in Wisconsin, in Arizona, in Michigan, and in Pennsylvania. You're going to be burning through a lot of cash very, very quickly, and Biden already just bought over $280 million of ads. Now, you can say "eh no problem, we can spend twice that". No, you don't get it. There's a finite amount of ad space. I'm not sure what percentage Biden just snagged while these boneheads were trying to fudge the numbers on coronavirus deathsand expose thousands of children to the coronavirus because that makes sense, but I'd bet they don't understand you need to buy up that ad space NOW.


Texan here.  I saw Trump ads (Houston market) starting in JUNE.  Biden just keeping it close is good down ballot.  Here in TX22 we had a runoff for the GOP spot.  Outgoing Ft. Bend county sheriff Troy Nehls beat disgusting Trump suckup and head-Qaren Kathaleen Wall, then purged his website of references to how he supports Trump.  This seat is prime for flipping, and the DCCC and President Obama are giving support to Sri Kulkarni.
 
2020-08-07 9:41:41 AM  

Shaggy_C: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

Try not to sound too excited about the downfall of your own country...


Stop projecting
 
2020-08-07 9:51:42 AM  
Still seeing the attack ads from Turtle-boy Mitch calling the BLM protests violent and showing nothing but "violence" video and ending with McGrath's photo calling her a "radical".

Fark you Mitch!
 
2020-08-07 10:17:48 AM  
Collins will lose. McConnell will win. I'm pessimistic about Jamie Harrison's chances to unseat Lindsay Graham, but I'll keep an open mind until October that he has a chance.
 
2020-08-07 10:30:39 AM  
McConnell has pulled back from the spotlight. He's running the stealth campaign now.
 
2020-08-07 11:47:13 AM  

clkeagle: Conservative analysts are going to spend decades analyzing what happens in November. I think most of them will conclude that removing Trump from office and putting Pence in the top spot would have mathematically helped down-ticket races, and sticking with him ultimately lost a ton of seats.

Or, you know, they'll just blame Democrats for everything. They don't take responsibility at all.


Um, "blaming" Democrats for Democrats taking the House and Senate would not be entirely inappropriate.  Although I'll bet there would be some cynical Democrats who would dispute it.
 
2020-08-07 12:00:11 PM  

flypusher713: Texan here. I saw Trump ads (Houston market) starting in JUNE. Biden just keeping it close is good down ballot. Here in TX22 we had a runoff for the GOP spot. Outgoing Ft. Bend county sheriff Troy Nehls beat disgusting Trump suckup and head-Qaren Kathaleen Wall, then purged his website of references to how he supports Trump. This seat is prime for flipping, and the DCCC and President Obama are giving support to Sri Kulkarni.


That doesn't sound like a good name for flipping a House seat in Texas.  I predict that his opponent will call him a Muslim, counting on Texans to not know the difference between a Hindu and a Muslim (or care).
 
2020-08-07 12:01:26 PM  

RminusQ: Collins will lose. McConnell will win. I'm pessimistic about Jamie Harrison's chances to unseat Lindsay Graham, but I'll keep an open mind until October that he has a chance.


Would McGrath's more progressive opponent have done any better against McConnell?
 
2020-08-07 12:56:43 PM  

flondrix: RminusQ: Collins will lose. McConnell will win. I'm pessimistic about Jamie Harrison's chances to unseat Lindsay Graham, but I'll keep an open mind until October that he has a chance.

Would McGrath's more progressive opponent have done any better against McConnell?


absolutely not, they would both have lost by double digits
 
2020-08-07 2:44:07 PM  

Shaggy_C: Visual Howlaround Title Sequence: Fingers crossed.

A few months of increasingly bad unemployment numbers and an undeniable number of deaths, say north of 250,000. And GDP contracts a bit more.

Try not to sound too excited about the downfall of your own country...


sometimes a downfall is required in order to step out of darkness. see movie with same name
 
2020-08-08 8:28:34 AM  

flondrix: flypusher713: Texan here. I saw Trump ads (Houston market) starting in JUNE. Biden just keeping it close is good down ballot. Here in TX22 we had a runoff for the GOP spot. Outgoing Ft. Bend county sheriff Troy Nehls beat disgusting Trump suckup and head-Qaren Kathaleen Wall, then purged his website of references to how he supports Trump. This seat is prime for flipping, and the DCCC and President Obama are giving support to Sri Kulkarni.

That doesn't sound like a good name for flipping a House seat in Texas.  I predict that his opponent will call him a Muslim, counting on Texans to not know the difference between a Hindu and a Muslim (or care).


TX-22 isn't your typical Texas district
 
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