Skip to content
 
If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Marketwatch)   Unless you have a time machine, don't try to time the market   (marketwatch.com) divider line
    More: Dumbass, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Stock, Stock market, Investment, baby boomers, much stock, Dow Jones & Company, Mutual fund  
•       •       •

874 clicks; posted to Business » on 03 Aug 2020 at 11:20 PM (7 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



12 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-08-03 11:31:49 PM  
That's Timeless advice...
 
2020-08-03 11:37:13 PM  
It's almost as if Random Walk exists and the only way to beat a market - trading wise - is with inside information.

/even long run, the ones that keep ending up at the top clearly have inside info that isn't available to the general public
//there's no way warren buffett made as much as he did w/o ~knowing~ more. his technique isn't ingenious or seekrit
///sure you can beat a market if you make a better widget
//but you can't beat it for long unless you leverage market failure and/or skim off labor's productivity
/capitalism isn't free market economics - it's a broken market mechanism that keeps capital afloat w/ artifices
 
2020-08-04 12:09:01 AM  
KODK
 
2020-08-04 12:42:55 AM  
If you have a time machine, you don't need the stock market. You can sell that sucker to the highest bidder.
 
2020-08-04 12:59:28 AM  

gameshowhost: It's almost as if Random Walk exists and the only way to beat a market - trading wise - is with inside information.

/even long run, the ones that keep ending up at the top clearly have inside info that isn't available to the general public
//there's no way warren buffett made as much as he did w/o ~knowing~ more. his technique isn't ingenious or seekrit
///sure you can beat a market if you make a better widget
//but you can't beat it for long unless you leverage market failure and/or skim off labor's productivity
/capitalism isn't free market economics - it's a broken market mechanism that keeps capital afloat w/ artifices


Long term trends can be identified.

For example, brick and mortar retail sales peaked in 2000, The rise of internet sales has been forecast since the 1980's.


Buffet has special deals available only to him.
 
2020-08-04 3:47:44 AM  
Even so-called gurus like Ray Dalio have seen some really terrible returns this year.

Meanwhile, I'm up 10% YTD with a relatively conservative portfolio. There's one big gamble in there, and it's halved its value, so that hurt me, but overall things look very good in 2020 so far.

But there were some defensive moves I made last year that have made this possible. If you didn't see a market correction looming, I don't know what market you were watching. The COVID may have accelerated and exacerbated the pain in March, but it was just the straw that broke the camel's back. So it's not so much timing the market as it was reading the writing on the wall. I pulled a significant chunk of my investments out of the market last year and missed out on quite a bit of upside in 2019. But so far in 2020, that upside has been recouped and exceeded as the S&P has floundered badly until around 7/20 when it finally reached positive territory again.

The article talks about having a plan and sticking to it. But everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. You've got to have education and understanding of what you're doing with your money. Getting out of the market when things seem too good to be true or getting in when things look darkest isn't market timing, it's smart investing. Your plan should be flexible enough to know when your plan isn't working or is setting you up for failure.
 
2020-08-04 5:35:56 AM  

Madman drummers bummers: If you have a time machine, you don't need the stock market. You can sell that sucker to the highest bidder.


Time machine sales are strictly prohibited.
 
2020-08-04 5:42:14 AM  
you cant time the market

said by everyone who's interests are best served by you remaining in the market

-> getting out is the easy part
-> getting  back in, not so much

Pay attentiton.
 
2020-08-04 7:46:07 AM  
One of my favorite quotes on the matter is by Jane Bryant Quinn, who once wrote, "the market timers Hall of Fame is an empty room."
 
2020-08-04 7:47:18 AM  

Zeb Hesselgresser: you cant time the market

said by everyone who's interests are best served by you remaining in the market

-> getting out is the easy part
-> getting  back in, not so much

Pay attentiton.


I've timed the market on 3 major occasions, and come out ahead 3 for 3.

However, I'm not dumb enough to believe this was anything but luck, especially in hindsight.
 
2020-08-04 7:49:25 AM  
This article lays out exactly my thoughts on what you should do.  You will always have a good chunk of money in stocks.  You need it for growth.  Have cash on hand for at least 3 years before you will need it.  And don't panic.
 
2020-08-04 10:21:46 AM  

Gway: One of my favorite quotes on the matter is by Jane Bryant Quinn, who once wrote, "the market timers Hall of Fame is an empty room."


Stocks will go down when Biden wins the election.
 
Displayed 12 of 12 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking




On Twitter



  1. Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.

  2. When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.

  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.