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(Five Thirty-Eight)   According to 538, Biden's lead over Trump has shrunk 18.75% since July 11th. It's going to happen again, isn't it?   (projects.fivethirtyeight.com) divider line
    More: Facepalm, Opinion poll, Poll, Polls, horse-race polls, partisan polls, Election, large majority of its political activity, behalf of a candidate  
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4715 clicks; posted to Politics » on 01 Aug 2020 at 4:33 PM (9 days ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



296 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


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2020-08-01 1:09:24 PM  
Just close enough to steal it.
 
2020-08-01 1:14:51 PM  
1.3%
 
2020-08-01 1:28:43 PM  
No
 
2020-08-01 1:39:43 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-01 1:41:36 PM  
The only way to successfully protest is to get your ass kicked by bullies. If you are not getting your ass kick then you get no empathy. If John Lewis had pulled out an AK and shot the cops waiting on the bridge things would not have ended the way they did. Americans had a huge amount of sympathy for BLM. They have no sympathy for the dipshiats in Portland. The portland dipshiats are getting all the press.
 
2020-08-01 2:13:25 PM  
WTF are you on about, subby?
 
2020-08-01 2:22:22 PM  
The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.
 
2020-08-01 2:37:52 PM  
Taking the majority the senate and keeping the majority in the house is actually far more important. If we can pull that off it won't matter if Trump hijacks the election(which he just might, he did steal the last one) because they will systematically impeach and remove him and his cronies. They have more than enough evidence to bury them all.

Taking the senate is critical for Biden as well, If he is elected and the GOP retains the Senate, they'll cock-block him the same way they did Obama which is not going to fix things as fast as they need fixing.
 
2020-08-01 2:48:29 PM  
VOTE, YE SCURVY DOGS, VOTE LIKE YOUR LIVES DEPEND ON IT
 
2020-08-01 2:49:02 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.


Yeah, I think we see an ebb and flow in the numbers.  Can you imagine being undecided right now?  How is that even possible?
 
2020-08-01 2:49:14 PM  
I'm seeing no real change on electoral-vote.com, save that Ohio might go Trump.  It won't save him.

People will continue to get sick, some of those will die, and jobs continue to go away.  Donnie and his sycophants keep working to make the above even worse.
 
2020-08-01 2:49:42 PM  
Is this the biannual horse race?
 
2020-08-01 2:51:14 PM  
81.25% of a massive lead is still a massive lead, but anything short of emphatically sweeping him out of office is too close for comfort.

capt_sensible: Taking the majority the senate and keeping the majority in the house is actually far more important.


It's plenty important, but we don't just need to stop the bleeding when it comes to judicial appointees, cabinet posts, and department heads. We need a full 180. The courts are so stocked at this point, Republicans would gladly take a scenario in which no one was appointed or confirmed for two years until they can take another shot at the Senate. This administration's bare bones sham of a government would continue to torpedo the country, and there's nothing a very slim Senate majority (very slim is the best we can hope for) could do to stop that.
 
2020-08-01 2:51:49 PM  
If by 'it' you mean mainstream journalists pushing a horse race narrative, then yes.  Gets clicks, sells papers, etc
 
2020-08-01 2:58:20 PM  
The polls always tighten before an election, for some reason.

But whomever is leading on Labor Day almost always wins the popular vote.
 
2020-08-01 3:02:52 PM  

SomeAmerican: The polls always tighten before an election, for some reason.

But whomever is leading on Labor Day almost always wins the popular vote.


Because most people don't follow politics 24/7.  Most actively try to not consume any news about politics so they can maintain their blinders of BSABVR.  It is only after Labor Day that most Americans even engage superficially with an election.  So, the numbers begin to tighten as the vast unwashed hordes of "I hate democracy because I want magical fairyland of perfection" have to make a decision.
 
2020-08-01 3:07:32 PM  
These are some of the candidates I'm donating to, this time with hyperlinks, if anyone can afford.  Jaime and Amy seem to need it the most right now.

Kim Mangone
Phil Arballo
Jaime Harrison
Amy McGrath
Sara Gideon
Carol Iannuzzi
Cal Cunningham
Doug Jones
 
2020-08-01 3:10:38 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: WTF are you on about, subby?


Looks like math. Math can be funny.
 
2020-08-01 3:11:05 PM  

nealb2: The only way to successfully protest is to get your ass kicked by bullies. If you are not getting your ass kick then you get no empathy. If John Lewis had pulled out an AK and shot the cops waiting on the bridge things would not have ended the way they did. Americans had a huge amount of sympathy for BLM. They have no sympathy for the dipshiats in Portland. The portland dipshiats are getting all the press.


So by your logic, Trump sending DHS agents in is actually HELPING the protestors to protest successfully.  My eyes have been opened.  Thank you, kind sir.  Or ma'am.  Or sentient toaster.  I think I will vote a straight Republican ticket come November.
 
2020-08-01 3:13:55 PM  

nealb2: The only way to successfully protest is to get your ass kicked by bullies. If you are not getting your ass kick then you get no empathy. If John Lewis had pulled out an AK and shot the cops waiting on the bridge things would not have ended the way they did. Americans had a huge amount of sympathy for BLM. They have no sympathy for the dipshiats in Portland. The portland dipshiats are getting all the press.



Good news - DHS is pulling back. No more scenes of anarchy to juice Trump's numbers. Peace rules the land:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politi​c​s/calm-returns-to-portland-as-federal-​agents-withdraw/2020/07/31/3606b35a-d3​64-11ea-9038-af089b63ac21_story.html?u​tm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_​content=link&ICID=ref_fark
 
2020-08-01 3:15:27 PM  

nealb2: The only way to successfully protest is to get your ass kicked by bullies. If you are not getting your ass kick then you get no empathy. If John Lewis had pulled out an AK and shot the cops waiting on the bridge things would not have ended the way they did. Americans had a huge amount of sympathy for BLM. They have no sympathy for the dipshiats in Portland. The portland dipshiats are getting all the press.


media0.giphy.comView Full Size
 
2020-08-01 3:26:00 PM  
I think he will win again, unless a lot more people die of COVID or something else big happens.
He'll cheat, and lie, and create obstacles to voting for many to make it happen.

And a lot so called good people will support him.  Half of this country seems to actually be deplorable.

We can get past this, but people are going to have to participate in the system in a meaningful way for it to happen.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
2020-08-01 3:40:15 PM  
July 11: 9.6 %
July 31: 8.3 %

9.6-8.3 = 1.3

(1.3/9.6)*100 = 13.54%

How did subby get his/her numbers?
 
2020-08-01 3:52:18 PM  

Mantour: July 11: 9.6 %
July 31: 8.3 %

9.6-8.3 = 1.3

(1.3/9.6)*100 = 13.54%

How did subby get his/her numbers?


Raw average from Real Clear Politics perhaps.
9.0-7.4=1.6
(1.6/9)*100= 17.78%

A bit closer.
 
2020-08-01 3:58:30 PM  
We haven't even had the conventions (such as they are) yet.
 
2020-08-01 4:05:28 PM  
I was one of the people shocked and horrified after Election Day 2016. It's important to remember a few things though:

- Hillary Clinton spent decades as one of the most hated people in America and still won the popular vote
- The election results were within the margins of error for polling, a fact lost on people who don't know how read 538's topline projections
- Trump barely won in several battleground states with less than a 20,000 vote margin
- We had James Comey doing everything in his power to sink Hillary's campaign with that ridiculous late-breaking "buttery males investigation back on wait no lol jk" shiat

Further:

- Joe Biden is polling higher than Hillary did at any point in her campaign and has one of the largest leads of a candidate in the modern era
- Biden is leading by large margins in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and other states that on their own could sink Trump if they don't go for him this time
- Biden is polling evenly in places like Texas and Georgia and is ahead in Arizona
- Polling in US Senate races confirms a preference for Democrats in places like Iowa and Montana

The economy has had its worst quarter since the Great Depression and Trump is busy kicking at the remaining supports left to unemployed and sick Americans. Biden has pulled even among elderly voters, who it turns out don't like being sacrificed for the stock market. Anyone looking at this election with an unemotional lens would bet on Biden winning.

For every bit of voter suppression and foreign interference working on behalf of the GOP there's historical factors in favor of Democrats, which is what the polling is bearing out. I'm not saying we should be sucking each others' dicks just yet. I am saying it's okay to let yourself believe that we stand a credible chance of things improving.
 
2020-08-01 4:10:12 PM  

Dusk-You-n-Me: The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.


Good.

Because some people are going to get complacent if it looks like Biden is going to run away with this thing.

Everyone needs to vote to insure a landslide defeat of Republican governance.
 
2020-08-01 4:10:48 PM  
Go out and find a young adult, 18-25, that isn't registered to vote.  They're pretty easy to find, just look for people with the phone attached to their hands and a permanent crooked neck beginning.

Show them just a few of the news stories about unemployment and no benefits coming.  Hunger and sickness.  Staying up all night at protests.  Get them fired up.
 
2020-08-01 4:11:51 PM  

bobtheme: These are some of the candidates I'm donating to, this time with hyperlinks, if anyone can afford.  Jaime and Amy seem to need it the most right now.

Kim Mangone
Phil Arballo
Jaime Harrison
Amy McGrath
Sara Gideon
Carol Iannuzzi
Cal Cunningham
Doug Jones


YOU FORGOT MJ!
 
TWX [TotalFark]
2020-08-01 4:13:55 PM  

Cagey B: I was one of the people shocked and horrified after Election Day 2016. It's important to remember a few things though:

- Hillary Clinton spent decades as one of the most hated people in America and still won the popular vote
- The election results were within the margins of error for polling, a fact lost on people who don't know how read 538's topline projections
- Trump barely won in several battleground states with less than a 20,000 vote margin
- We had James Comey doing everything in his power to sink Hillary's campaign with that ridiculous late-breaking "buttery males investigation back on wait no lol jk" shiat

Further:

- Joe Biden is polling higher than Hillary did at any point in her campaign and has one of the largest leads of a candidate in the modern era
- Biden is leading by large margins in Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and other states that on their own could sink Trump if they don't go for him this time
- Biden is polling evenly in places like Texas and Georgia and is ahead in Arizona
- Polling in US Senate races confirms a preference for Democrats in places like Iowa and Montana

The economy has had its worst quarter since the Great Depression and Trump is busy kicking at the remaining supports left to unemployed and sick Americans. Biden has pulled even among elderly voters, who it turns out don't like being sacrificed for the stock market. Anyone looking at this election with an unemotional lens would bet on Biden winning.

For every bit of voter suppression and foreign interference working on behalf of the GOP there's historical factors in favor of Democrats, which is what the polling is bearing out. I'm not saying we should be sucking each others' dicks just yet. I am saying it's okay to let yourself believe that we stand a credible chance of things improving.


Over at Electoral-vote.com they did a mailbag-response today that addressed a lot of this.

In short, Biden is FAR ahead compared to other races.  Trump had already fairly significantly lost the popular vote in his previous election, and many of the anyone-but-Hillary voters are dissatisfied.  Trump's mishandling of well, just about everything, but specifically the economy and the COVID-19 response are hurting him among the Republican electorate, and many other negatives like the appointment of election-loser Martha McSally to the Senate anyway are coming home to roost.

I'm far more concerned about ratfarkery, shenanigans, and Republican-managed election fraud than I am about the actual vote.
 
2020-08-01 4:16:29 PM  

GreatGlavinsGhost: bobtheme: These are some of the candidates I'm donating to, this time with hyperlinks, if anyone can afford.  Jaime and Amy seem to need it the most right now.

Kim Mangone
Phil Arballo
Jaime Harrison
Amy McGrath
Sara Gideon
Carol Iannuzzi
Cal Cunningham
Doug Jones

YOU FORGOT MJ!


I'm actually funding her and Seikaly!  Not sure why I didn't include them.
 
2020-08-01 4:35:59 PM  
Jump scare headlines
 
2020-08-01 4:36:29 PM  
Trump will win again because America is a business, not a country.
 
2020-08-01 4:36:50 PM  
I blame the protesters.  They're making such a racket and drawing negative attention to Democrats.  Do they want four more years of Trump?
 
2020-08-01 4:37:31 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: WTF are you on about, subby?


I'm getting the feeling that the powers that want T-bone to win are getting desperate and are resorting to false tactics.

Unfortunately for them, I'm going to vote and I'm going to do my legend best to encourage others to vote as well.

/VOTE
 
2020-08-01 4:38:01 PM  
Is this some mathematically technically correct troll where 18.75 is the decrease in the *size* of the lead so if he had a 5 point lead, he now has a 4.something percent lead?

/there are no trolls on Fark
 
2020-08-01 4:38:08 PM  
Just be prepared. It's not like you haven't had time or warnings. If things don't go to your liking, don't start planning then.
 
2020-08-01 4:38:20 PM  
Yeah this isn't something I'd ignore.

But it's well within statistical noise area right now.
 
2020-08-01 4:38:31 PM  

Tell Me How My Blog Tastes: VOTE, YE SCURVY DOGS, VOTE LIKE YOUR LIVES DEPEND ON IT


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-01 4:38:39 PM  
Why yes, Dems are indeed running a right-wing candidate with no intention of improving America other than "not being that other guy." They will depress voter turnout and spite an entire generation of voters, and then they will blame the voters they proudly proclaim how little they care about.

It is indeed happening all over again, just like 2016.
 
2020-08-01 4:40:08 PM  

Tell Me How My Blog Tastes: VOTE, YE SCURVY DOGS, VOTE LIKE YOUR LIVES DEPEND ON IT


Hell, I'm Canadian and even I am hoping to vote six or seven times.
 
2020-08-01 4:40:12 PM  

GreatGlavinsGhost: Dusk-You-n-Me: The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.

Good.

Because some people are going to get complacent if it looks like Biden is going to run away with this thing.

Everyone needs to vote to insure a landslide defeat of Republican governance.


this cannot be said enough times before November

Fark user imageView Full Size
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-08-01 4:40:25 PM  

dildo tontine: Dusk-You-n-Me: The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.

Yeah, I think we see an ebb and flow in the numbers.  Can you imagine being undecided right now?  How is that even possible?


There are quite a few people who don't pay attention to politics until September/October and make their decision then.
 
2020-08-01 4:40:25 PM  

Tell Me How My Blog Tastes: VOTE, YE SCURVY DOGS, VOTE LIKE YOUR LIVES DEPEND ON IT


Who in Fark politics do you suspect of being a non voter?
 
2020-08-01 4:42:34 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


Obligatory.

/sob
 
2020-08-01 4:44:13 PM  
#AnyoneButBidenOrBillionaires

Y'all should have voted for anyone under 60 years old too.
 
2020-08-01 4:44:15 PM  

capt_sensible: Taking the majority the senate and keeping the majority in the house is actually far more important. If we can pull that off it won't matter if Trump hijacks the election(which he just might, he did steal the last one) because they will systematically impeach and remove him and his cronies. They have more than enough evidence to bury them all.

Taking the senate is critical for Biden as well, If he is elected and the GOP retains the Senate, they'll cock-block him the same way they did Obama which is not going to fix things as fast as they need fixing.


Anything short of a Democrat scoop means America is done.
 
2020-08-01 4:44:15 PM  

bluejeansonfire: Why yes, Dems are indeed running a right-wing candidate with no intention of improving America other than "not being that other guy." They will depress voter turnout and spite an entire generation of voters, and then they will blame the voters they proudly proclaim how little they care about.

It is indeed happening all over again, just like 2016.


.......huh?

/vote you idiots!!
 
2020-08-01 4:45:07 PM  

dildo tontine: Dusk-You-n-Me: The race was always going to tighten and will continue do so as we get closer to the election.

Yeah, I think we see an ebb and flow in the numbers.  Can you imagine being undecided right now?  How is that even possible?


files.explosm.netView Full Size
 
2020-08-01 4:45:21 PM  

Nadie_AZ: Is this the biannual horse race?


Treat this as a pre-ordained blow-out win at your own peril, thanks, not ours.
 
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