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(CNN)   "1 number that proves 2020 is *nothing* like 2016"   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Interesting, Bill Clinton, President of the United States, Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan, Democratic Party, Barack Obama, George H. W. Bush, United States presidential election, 2008  
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4755 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Jul 2020 at 12:52 PM (13 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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Juc
2020-07-17 12:04:41 PM  
The number of active covid-19 cases?
 
2020-07-17 12:15:02 PM  
For F*ck's sake, don't you stupid f*ckers use this as an excuse to not vote in November.

Every time I see a "Biden is beating the sh*t out of Trump" story, it scares me half to death that people will just say, "Oh, good - I don't have to bother, then," like lazy-ass f*ckers - in other words, Americans - do.
 
2020-07-17 12:31:41 PM  
FTFA: At this point in the 2016 race. Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls

Technically those are two numbers, subby and CNN.
 
2020-07-17 12:33:00 PM  
Don't listen to this shiat
Go to the polls and vote
Register if you have not
The numbers need to show the country, the redhats and the world that we reject this insanity.
 
2020-07-17 12:40:32 PM  
I don't like Chris Cillizza.

There I said it.
 
2020-07-17 12:44:24 PM  
ftfa: "Why? Because, for a variety of reasons -- Trump is the incumbent, Joe Biden isn't nearly as polarizing a figure as Hillary Clinton has a penis, the coronavirus, George Floyd -- the 2020 election isn't simply a replay of the 2016 election."

FTFY
 
2020-07-17 12:45:33 PM  

NateAsbestos: I don't like Chris Cillizza.

There I said it.


I'm not sure anybody does.
 
2020-07-17 12:45:34 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: For F*ck's sake, don't you stupid f*ckers use this as an excuse to not vote in November.

Every time I see a "Biden is beating the sh*t out of Trump" story, it scares me half to death that people will just say, "Oh, good - I don't have to bother, then," like lazy-ass f*ckers - in other words, Americans - do.



Everyone needs to vote as if it comes with a free puppy/kitten (voter's choice)
 
2020-07-17 12:46:58 PM  

educated: ftfa: "Why? Because, for a variety of reasons -- Trump is the incumbent, Joe Biden isn't nearly as polarizing a figure as Hillary Clinton has a penis, the coronavirus, George Floyd -- the 2020 election isn't simply a replay of the 2016 election."

FTFY


Whoa tell us how you really feel Tea. ;)

/fully agree
//wish I didn't
 
2020-07-17 12:47:47 PM  
Is this the thread where we feel encouraged by good news or the one where we try to convince everyone that objective reality and math isn't real?
 
2020-07-17 12:50:57 PM  

whidbey: educated: ftfa: "Why? Because, for a variety of reasons -- Trump is the incumbent, Joe Biden isn't nearly as polarizing a figure as Hillary Clinton has a penis, the coronavirus, George Floyd -- the 2020 election isn't simply a replay of the 2016 election."

FTFY

Whoa tell us how you really feel Tea. ;)

/fully agree
//wish I didn't



Hey man, I am just stating the facts.
 
2020-07-17 12:53:54 PM  
141,456 is a number.
 
2020-07-17 12:54:21 PM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: For F*ck's sake, don't you stupid f*ckers use this as an excuse to not vote in November.

Every time I see a "Biden is beating the sh*t out of Trump" story, it scares me half to death that people will just say, "Oh, good - I don't have to bother, then," like lazy-ass f*ckers - in other words, Americans - do.


Except numerous studies have shown the exact opposite effect
 
2020-07-17 12:54:51 PM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


Expect Trump to announce the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett by the end of the day as "understudy" to replace her.
 
2020-07-17 12:55:25 PM  
VOTE
 
2020-07-17 12:55:53 PM  

Juc: The number of active covid-19 cases?


Dead
 
2020-07-17 12:56:28 PM  

The Third Man: NateAsbestos: I don't like Chris Cillizza.

There I said it.

I'm not sure anybody does.


Nobody likes him. But lately I've been reading some of his stuff and thinking, "this isn't completely terrible." I suspect 2020 is dumbing me down to Chris Cillizza's level.
 
2020-07-17 12:57:10 PM  
*whine* But GUUYYYYYZZZ!... HORSERACE! *whine*
 
2020-07-17 12:57:44 PM  
But even if Trump does wind up winning

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-17 12:57:48 PM  
People didn't vote in 2016 because they honestly didn't give a fark.  Now they give a fark.
 
2020-07-17 12:57:48 PM  

Dorf11: 141,456 is a number.


141,457 is a different number, but more accurate at this moment.

/Soon it will be yet another, higher number...
 
2020-07-17 12:58:07 PM  
Because Donald Trump won the 2016 election when everyone expected him to lose, there is a tendency at this moment in time to avoid any sort of analysis of what his current dismal political position means for his chances of winning a second term.

This sentiment is,
in a word, dumb. debilitating to our plan to breathlessly cover every poll between now and election

FTFCNN
 
2020-07-17 12:58:22 PM  
The units place?
 
2020-07-17 12:58:42 PM  

Grungehamster: [Fark user image image 425x466]

Expect Trump to announce the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett by the end of the day as "understudy" to replace her.


In an election year? Certainly we must let the American people have a say.

Honestly though, if she passes away early enough on January 20 Mitch will get a replacement confirmed before noon.
 
2020-07-17 12:59:27 PM  
Article 1,196 this year on why this time running on "I'm not him" is finally going to pay off.
 
2020-07-17 1:00:22 PM  
Hillary also had an 8 point lead at one point, before Comey's Buttery Males October Surprise.
 
2020-07-17 1:00:35 PM  

Uncle Eazy: FTFA: At this point in the 2016 race. Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls

Technically those are two numbers, subby and CNN.


Cillizza is the news version of the "Hello, fellow kids" guy except instead of kids, Cillizza is trying so desperately to pass himself off as Buzzfeed.

He should just quit CNN and go work for Buzzfeed.
 
2020-07-17 1:00:35 PM  
At this point in the 2016 race. Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls.

NATIONAL polling.
Are going to go into this again not remembering how the Electoral College works?
 
2020-07-17 1:00:47 PM  

Juc: The number of active covid-19 cases?


The number of Americans murdered by the administration through its half assed response filled with lies and misinformation?
 
2020-07-17 1:01:40 PM  
Yeah, the GOP was taint deep with the FBI's balls in their mouth last time. 
Now they hate them...
 
2020-07-17 1:02:45 PM  
There will be an October "surprise" about an investigation on Biden from AG Barr.
 
2020-07-17 1:03:26 PM  

Bowen: Grungehamster: [Fark user image image 425x466]

Expect Trump to announce the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett by the end of the day as "understudy" to replace her.

In an election year? Certainly we must let the American people have a say.

Honestly though, if she passes away early enough on January 20 Mitch will get a replacement confirmed before noon.


Man, imagine if Roberts was a good soldier like Barr: I could imagine a scenario where the Chief Justice announces that Ginsburg had tendered her resignation and the President and Senate get to work replacing her as she continues to say she said no such thing and they say she did and to get back in the cart.
 
2020-07-17 1:03:43 PM  

educated: ftfa: "Why? Because, for a variety of reasons -- Trump is the incumbent, Joe Biden isn't nearly as polarizing a figure as Hillary Clinton has a penis, the coronavirus, George Floyd -- the 2020 election isn't simply a replay of the 2016 election."

FTFY


The Democrats had good choices of people with vaginas to choose from this year, and they rejected them.
 
2020-07-17 1:03:49 PM  
Also, I get that Trump really isn't a good President right now. But Biden isn't all that inspiring, you know? I think I'll sit this one out, looks like y'all have it covered.
 
2020-07-17 1:05:08 PM  
Yeah, well, still.... dpoisn.com
 
2020-07-17 1:06:25 PM  

MysticKakarrott: Hillary also had an 8 point lead at one point, before Comey's Buttery Males October Surprise.


Fark user imageView Full Size


Expect a lot of "b...b...but Dukakis!"
 
2020-07-17 1:06:34 PM  
This is like the third Cilliza spew I've unwittingly clicked on the last few days. Is some knob suddenly submitting his dumb "The Point" op-eds or did I just never notice them before?
 
2020-07-17 1:06:49 PM  

Alaskan Yoda: Also, I get that Trump really isn't a good President right now. But Biden isn't all that inspiring, you know? I think I'll sit this one out, looks like y'all have it covered.


writeups.orgView Full Size
 
2020-07-17 1:08:01 PM  

fuhfuhfuh: *whine* But GUUYYYYYZZZ!... HORSERACE! *whine*


I remember that line from 2016. And then it turned out it really was a horse race.
 
2020-07-17 1:08:02 PM  
Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls.

And this affects the Electoral College how?  Oh, that's right, it doesn't.You have to get to the root of the problem.
 
2020-07-17 1:08:16 PM  
"But even if Trump does wind up winning, it still doesn't prove that 2020 is just like 2016. It's not! Simply because Trump beat the odds in that race doesn't tell us much of anything about whether he can again."

Every single time there's a discussion about polls, someone inevitably pops in and argues that polls are useless/untrustworthy/fake because Trump won in 2016 when a lot of analysts said he only had a small chance of winning.

This is a dumb argument for a few reasons:

- The polls themselves were actually pretty accurate, with Trump winning sub margin-or-error victories in the swing states he won
- There is a difference between the individual polls themselves and the aggregators that apply their own models to a large number of polls
- If someone creates a model which says that an unlikely event has a 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 chance of happening, and the unlikely event happens when you run the test 1 single time, that does not discredit the model.

Chris Cillizza gives a lot of very facile analysis of polling, but you know what? I'm okay with it. There are apparently a lot of people who need the repetition of the fact that "a 1.1 point lead in 2016 and a 10+ point lead in 2020 are very different" but "that also doesn't guarantee anything."

/ vote
// in numbers great enough to swamp the voter suppression
 
2020-07-17 1:08:24 PM  

Rev. Skarekroe: At this point in the 2016 race. Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls.

NATIONAL polling.
Are going to go into this again not remembering how the Electoral College works?


I mean have you looked at state polling? If anything that's even better for Biden. He has a better chance at winning Arkansas/Texas/Utah/Alaska than Trump does winning Florida
 
2020-07-17 1:08:33 PM  

Grungehamster: [Fark user image 425x466]

Expect Trump to announce the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett by the end of the day as "understudy" to replace her.


The hopes and dreams of so many oppressed people are tied to her destiny right now. She is a courageous, strong, and amazing woman. If she can stay alive until January 22, 2021, we all need to be courageous and dedicated enough to not only vote, but bring every single person who will vote against Trump into the fold. Further, we have to get the senate, without it McConnell will go back into obstruction mode and you better bet he may just consider stopping ANY justices from being seated.

Anyone with progressive, liberal, or moderate views lost big in 2016. There was a chance to change the face of this country for over a generation, for the better. It would have been an irreversible blow to the conservatives of this country. We blew it, we cannot blow this one.

If god forbid she passes, the entire country of people who care needs to unite and literally occupy the capital until the election is over to stop the republicans from pulling a bullshiat move and seating another one of their picks. That is not a joke, a true civilian occupation is absolutely required. We have to prevent the senate from coming to order in every peaceful manner possible.
 
2020-07-17 1:09:56 PM  
FTFA - "Biden could make a costly gaffe."

Unless that gaffe is a video of Biden balls-deep in a teenager, wiping his ass with Old Glory while talking to Putin who is in the room, and agreeing Taliban soldiers get an extra $50 for each American soldier they kill, while eating a puppy who just ate a live baby, and worshipping Satan in the process, it still wouldn't be worse than what President farkface does weekly.

/I want a Satanist President
///Because they will listen to metal \m/
///Graaaaaandmaaaaaaaa!!!
 
2020-07-17 1:10:39 PM  

Grungehamster: MysticKakarrott: Hillary also had an 8 point lead at one point, before Comey's Buttery Males October Surprise.

[Fark user image 425x542]

Expect a lot of "b...b...but Dukakis!"


Yeah, and it took Dukakis's stupid tank incident on September 13, 1988 to tank his campaign, when he climbed in a tank during a tour of a General Dynamics factory and had the tank drive around with him riding in the turret, wearing a poorly-fitting helmet that made him look silly.  He was trying to look tough, he just looked like an idiot. . .and the moment it happened everyone knew this wouldn't end well.

Short of Joe Biden pulling a "Dukakis in the tank" moment, he's not going to repeat the Dukakis path.  Whatever happens, it won't be the same as what happened to Dukakis.
 
2020-07-17 1:11:03 PM  

sinner4ever: Article 1,196 this year on why this time running on "I'm not him" is finally going to pay off.


Hang in there champ! Your guy Trump still has a chance!
 
2020-07-17 1:11:29 PM  

Zerochance: FTFA - "Biden could make a costly gaffe."

Unless that gaffe is a video of Biden balls-deep in a teenager, wiping his ass with Old Glory while talking to Putin who is in the room, and agreeing Taliban soldiers get an extra $50 for each American soldier they kill, while eating a puppy who just ate a live baby, and worshipping Satan in the process, it still wouldn't be worse than what President farkface does weekly.

/I want a Satanist President
///Because they will listen to metal \m/
///Graaaaaandmaaaaaaaa!!!


They catch him saying take it for granite instead of granted, and it proves he is completely without mental faculties compared to the erudite Trump.
 
2020-07-17 1:12:03 PM  

educated: Benevolent Misanthrope: For F*ck's sake, don't you stupid f*ckers use this as an excuse to not vote in November.

Every time I see a "Biden is beating the sh*t out of Trump" story, it scares me half to death that people will just say, "Oh, good - I don't have to bother, then," like lazy-ass f*ckers - in other words, Americans - do.

Everyone needs to vote as if it comes with a free puppy/kitten (voter's choice)

Coronavirus vaccination.
 
2020-07-17 1:12:30 PM  
It's the six, right?
 
2020-07-17 1:12:45 PM  

NephilimNexus: Clinton had a 1.1-point lead over Trump in the national polling average. Right now, Biden has a 9.1-point average lead over Trump in national polls.

And this affects the Electoral College how?  Oh, that's right, it doesn't.You have to get to the root of the problem.


It affects the Electoral College breakdown when state-by-state polling shows firm Biden leads in most of the "swing states" that Trump carried, and that even some normally "Red" states like Texas and Georgia are now toss-ups/battleground states.

When you've down 9.1% in the polls, the mathematics behind creating a viable EC win scenario start looking long-shot.

Now that said. . .

VOTE.

Yes, you.

Every one of you.

Vote.
 
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