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(The New York Times)   Experts: extended unemployment benefits, which expire next week, are the only thing between 30 million Americans and financial catastrophe. Trump: 'find something new.' McConnell: 'no blue state bailouts.' This is your regular failed state thread   (nytimes.com) divider line
    More: Murica, Unemployment, Blithe denials, CARES Act, White House, incomes plunge, V-shape recovery, prospect of catastrophe, Donald Trump  
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628 clicks; posted to Politics » and Main » on 16 Jul 2020 at 10:28 PM (9 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2020-07-16 7:45:14 PM  
Over 50 million Americans have applied for unemployment since March and the laughable lie by trumpers on the unemployment rate is not based on facts.
The US  unemployment rate is closer to 20% today and getting ready to up again. McConnell and trump saying Fark them they should try harder is just plain evil and stupid. The coming evictions and foreclosures will make 2008 look like happy fun times compared. The House already passed the Heroes Act and if republicans actually wanted to do something they could vote on it.
 
2020-07-16 8:17:23 PM  
"no blue state bailouts" I agree, blue states have been subsidizing red states for too long.  Time for you to bootstrap yourself Kentucky Mitch.

Republicans know they're going to lose big, and are ready to start obstructing again.
 
2020-07-16 8:30:55 PM  
Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.
 
2020-07-16 8:51:13 PM  
All republicans had to do was extend the CARES act so it wouldn't expire, and they could have campaigned heavily on that. They could have grabbed the credit for bailing America out, and that might even have been enough let them keep the senate. A little good press in an election year.

But nope. Nothing is more important than hurting the poors. Not even keeping their own f*cking jobs.

Looking forward to the day we can dump this pathological wreck of a political party once and for all.
 
2020-07-16 8:52:38 PM  

PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.


"I was convicted by the biggest jury ever assembled in history. It took them weeks. Nobody has seen such a thing before. Believe me"
 
2020-07-16 9:37:57 PM  

eurotrader: Over 50 million Americans have applied for unemployment since March and the laughable lie by trumpers on the unemployment rate is not based on facts.
The US  unemployment rate is closer to 20% today and getting ready to up again. McConnell and trump saying Fark them they should try harder is just plain evil and stupid. The coming evictions and foreclosures will make 2008 look like happy fun times compared. The House already passed the Heroes Act and if republicans actually wanted to do something they could vote on it.


Correct.

I mentioned this in the other thread, but in this one....I bring the proof!

There is a massive issue with unemployment counts. Furloughed doesn't mean unemployed and are counted as employed, if you work just the first day of the counted month and then let go, you are counted as employed. There are a lot nuances that make it......challenging.

One number that you never hear in headline news, is total UI claims. How many people are on UI or some sort of assistance? In Feb it was estimated the US labor market was 165m. On today's UI release, there were 32m Americans on some sort of social program. Meaning they are unemployed, or under employed. IMO, this is a better indicator since these are people in need. 32/165 = .193. That isn't everyone because some states like FL farking suck, and people can't even get the assistance they need. So even this 19.3% is under.

For persepective, the news release for Dec 28th 2019, right before shiat hit the fan, was 2.1m claims. So only 16x the load since ~Jan 1. Top picture is current, second picture is through Dec 28th. The good news is that it dropped 400K from the week prior. But still 16x more than normal.

Fark user imageView Full Size


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-16 9:48:35 PM  

PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.


Alf Landon will have had a good day compared to tiny.
 
2020-07-16 10:03:51 PM  

PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.


I'm not sure that's possible. Nobody ran against George Washington. Nobody received zero votes both times.
 
2020-07-16 10:29:24 PM  
Well, that's it. Now I'm seriously on the fence about voting for Donald Trump.
 
2020-07-16 10:29:58 PM  
Cruelty is the point.
 
2020-07-16 10:32:29 PM  
In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this
 
2020-07-16 10:33:12 PM  
files.explosm.netView Full Size
 
2020-07-16 10:34:18 PM  

iheartscotch: PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.

I'm not sure that's possible. Nobody ran against George Washington. Nobody received zero votes both times.


I had to check that, you are right. Did learn the first US president was inaugurated in lower Manhattan. https://www.mountvernon.org/george-was​hington/the-first-president/election/1​0-facts-about-washingtons-election/
 
2020-07-16 10:36:14 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


It's both funny and sad that they determined what it would take for people to survive and came up with a number higher than they'd make by working. If you want people to brave the plague, pay them. Supply and Demand never seems to apply when it's workers' wages, why is that?
 
2020-07-16 10:36:17 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


So  the problem is workers are paid way too little money? That is my take away.
 
2020-07-16 10:40:06 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


Wow, it's almost like wages haven't been able to support the cost of living, and people don't want to go back to shiat jobs just to be underpaid.

If your business can't pay your workers a living wage, it does not deserve to exist. Period.
 
2020-07-16 10:43:01 PM  
I'd like to read the article, but Paywall!
 
2020-07-16 10:43:40 PM  
It will be really really bad if this happens.  All the things the government might have done, say freeze mortgage and rent payments, but no they have done nothing, oh I take that back, they have done everything they can to sabotage any positive efforts (whilst giving billions to corporations inn "forgivable loans.")

FARKING INSANITY!  Or just straight up ignorant evil, maybe yes maybe malicious evil.
 
2020-07-16 10:46:19 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


I do not believe that any of this is true, but in the cases were they are, maybe people do not want to get minimum wage whilst risking their and their loved one's health.  The US minimum wage for retail workers especially is criminal, think about it, meant to get tips, not going to happen when no one is out shopping because of a pandemic.
 
2020-07-16 10:53:50 PM  

the unabomber was right: PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.

"I was convicted by the biggest jury ever assembled in history. It took them weeks. Nobody has seen such a thing before. Believe me"


"I was found guilty on one hundred and forty one thousand, one hundred and eighteen* counts of depraved heart murder. At 30 years' sentence per count, I'm going to prison for over four million years*. Can you believe it? That's not only the longest prison term in history, that's longer than human history itself. No one will ever beat that. No one will ever beat it. In fact, by the time I get out of prison, the planet will almost have recovered from the Holocene extinction. No one's ever seen anything like that, folks. Believe me."

*as of 7/16/20
 
2020-07-16 10:54:14 PM  

eurotrader: iheartscotch: PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.

I'm not sure that's possible. Nobody ran against George Washington. Nobody received zero votes both times.

I had to check that, you are right. Did learn the first US president was inaugurated in lower Manhattan. https://www.mountvernon.org/george-was​hington/the-first-president/election/1​0-facts-about-washingtons-election/


Additional fun fact: Lincoln only got 54% of the electorate in his second election. McClellan ran against him. A 400,000 vote difference in a 4 million election.

/ Lincoln became a lot more popular when the failed actor shot him
 
2020-07-16 10:55:50 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


The median US income for a household is only some $57,000 per year.  So yes, your "average" American takes home something like $2200 per month before taxes.
There is another reason they don't want to return to work, the money is only a part of it, if you read the news you will figure it out.  On a related note, large numbers of those out of work don't have health insurance or paid sick leave (hint hint).
 
2020-07-16 10:56:13 PM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


Less chance of getting covidified by a maskless menace, too.
 
2020-07-16 11:03:59 PM  

TaDu: "no blue state bailouts" I agree, blue states have been subsidizing red states for too long.  Time for you to bootstrap yourself Kentucky Mitch.

Republicans know they're going to lose big, and are ready to start obstructing again.


Yup. Time for blue states to cut off red states. Let them go broke and whine about it till they dont have one cent to give to the GOP.
 
2020-07-16 11:11:30 PM  
COVID Story Bro:

I had 4 entertainment venues/companies on the client books that were shut today after Inslee's announcement. They came to the conclusion that operations are suspended until October. Was anticipating this for them and I'm glad I could guide them to cushion under. I flourished in 2006 and have insight to impact of 2008. Even with that atmosphere, I still was perfectly fine with the handful of clients left in the aftermath. I grew back from there to more than comfortable up to 2020. I never take for granted what one day brings will be there tomorrow.

It's also apparent that the pricing of consumer services will be adjusted to accommodate a dramatically lower rate of work while the overhead remains the same. I would imagine when I go back to the salons and such that the prices will reflect the division among loss of service opportunities.

It's going to be ugly for awhile. Go through it, don't let it remove your hope to persist. As long as we survive to a vaccine and a non-Nazi president*, the opportunities will be there to get back on your feet and surpass the stability of before. This time with perhaps more equitable treatment of employees.

Of course, I'm all sunny side up about this because of my total circumstances. The fact of my circumstances were equally terrible as they were fortunate and I was able to prolong enough to tip the scales. What I'm pointing out is I wish I hadn't wasted precious time on the doom and gloom because the emotional scars take a toll against being able to appreciate the experience of things going better in life.

As much of the division caverns among our country at present moment, it seems more persons for humanity are gaining ground.
 
2020-07-16 11:24:38 PM  
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU​UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU​UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU​UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

CK ALL Y'ALL
 
2020-07-16 11:26:19 PM  

iheartscotch: eurotrader: iheartscotch: PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.

I'm not sure that's possible. Nobody ran against George Washington. Nobody received zero votes both times.

I had to check that, you are right. Did learn the first US president was inaugurated in lower Manhattan. https://www.mountvernon.org/george-was​hington/the-first-president/election/1​0-facts-about-washingtons-election/

Additional fun fact: Lincoln only got 54% of the electorate in his second election. McClellan ran against him. A 400,000 vote difference in a 4 million election.

/ Lincoln became a lot more popular when the failed actor shot him


Reading about how Americans (who and what sex) cast  their vote  and how it was counted over the years is interesting. The arc towards justice was going towards the right direction in the US until 2000. Now some people in elected office are actively trying to push the arc  back towards injustice.
 
2020-07-16 11:30:06 PM  

LordJiro: litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this

Wow, it's almost like wages haven't been able to support the cost of living, and people don't want to go back to shiat jobs just to be underpaid.

If your business can't pay your workers a living wage, it does not deserve to exist. Period.


Pretty much.

Businesses want workers to come back for less than $800/week plus the chance of getting COVID, and can't understand why there are so few takers.

It's not that hard to understand, folks.
 
2020-07-17 12:30:37 AM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


Very nice. Thanks for the update from St. Petersburg.
 
2020-07-17 1:10:45 AM  

bloobeary: All republicans had to do was extend the CARES act so it wouldn't expire, and they could have campaigned heavily on that. They could have grabbed the credit for bailing America out, and that might even have been enough let them keep the senate. A little good press in an election year.

But nope. Nothing is more important than hurting the poors. Not even keeping their own f*cking jobs.

Looking forward to the day we can dump this pathological wreck of a political party once and for all.


I finally got the chance to see the Rachel Maddow-Mary Trump interview. I was taken at just how serious she was. God, it looked like something had died inside of her. She was in true despair, agony maybe. She knows her uncle is a dangerous man. I think she is astounded, and humbled by the average American ignorance. She had no idea just how deep the cult of personality-pathology runs in this country.

I think this is what will finally bring him down. This chick has got bona fides. They will try to break her, but she's prayed on it. She'll stand by her work until the ship sinks.

God, I hope we can wrest control back from these psychopaths.
 
2020-07-17 1:17:27 AM  
So how would we redistribute wealth so a few rich oligarchs don't control all our destinies unchecked?

/asking for 300 million friends
 
2020-07-17 1:35:01 AM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


Why is it the folks who don't currently have to, or even want to, do a shiat job, always harping about how more Americans should be happy to dop a shiat job? This isn't India. We shouldn't have to spend eight hours shoveling shiat if we don't want to.

This country is the land of opportunity. The same country that allowed you to achieve your place in life, with little to no racism, a fairly soild education, and the confidence to feel you could achieve your goals, should be the same for everybody. There is nothing special about how you got where you are. A million white guys have the same story. You're just greedy . You don't want to see other people have what you have.

Time's up, boo. You're gonna have to start sharing now.
 
2020-07-17 1:48:06 AM  
It's pretty convenient that the steep decline in the labor force participation rate leads to a dramatic reduction in the number of people counted in the official unemployment rate.

Fark user imageView Full Size


Some data per the BLS:

Feb 2020: 5,787,000 unemployed / 164,546,000 in the labor force = 3.5% unemployment rate
Apr 2020: 23,078,000 unemployed / 156,481,000 in the labor force = 14.7% unemployment rate

I realize over 8 million people being dropped from the labor force is most likely a result of lockdowns preventing people from working, but if you considered the effect of such an abrupt decline on the employment situation and included those folks in the count, you'd have something closer to this:

31,143,000 unemployed / 164,546,000 in the labor force = 18.9% unemployment rate

This excludes the effect of millions of furloughed workers "misclassified" by the BLS as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons", with the April employment report stating if the workers "had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis)."

Based on that information, a more realistic measure of the unemployment rate would put the peak closer to 24%.

A similar look at the data for June would put the unemployment rate closer to 14.5% compared to the official rate of 11.1%.

To be clear, this is all related to the official U-3 rate methodology and doesn't pertain to the U-6 rate that some folks like to use to claim the unemployment rate is worse than it looks.

Employment Situation - April 2020

Employment Situation - June 2020

I generally trust the people at the BLS to accurately report on the data they collect, and to their credit they were fairly upfront about the alleged classification error for furloughed workers. Still, it's a little disheartening that there seems to be an ongoing effort to minimize the effect the pandemic is having on the employment situation by dropping millions from the labor force count in such a short span of time while also massively undercounting the actual number of unemployed people due to the furloughed workers being "misclassified" as employed.

Mitch's refusal to act doesn't really seem like a winning electoral strategy for Republicans, especially if all the states being hit hard by a surge in cases end up locking down and undoing what little progress has been made to stabilize the employment situation.
 
2020-07-17 2:12:29 AM  

mdarius: So how would we redistribute wealth so a few rich oligarchs don't control all our destinies unchecked?

/asking for 300 million friends


Taxes and a good social welfare net, no not "net" nets have whole, a good social welfare trampoline.
 
2020-07-17 2:12:56 AM  
*holes :p
 
2020-07-17 2:15:21 AM  

litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this


Yeah, that's...kind of me.  I was making $4000 a month for a while, which is more than I ever made in my life.  I think the most I pulled in, as a fluke, was 3k once.

And then the PPP sent me back to work, where we're paid on a per-project basis.

The way things are now, I made about $250 last month.

No, really, I'm thrilled; what, do you think I look like I might being having an aneurism or something?  Preposterous.
 
2020-07-17 3:40:09 AM  
The pipple hit hardest by this will be middle to lower middle class. You know... voters.
 
2020-07-17 6:43:28 AM  

bloobeary: All republicans had to do was extend the CARES act so it wouldn't expire, and they could have campaigned heavily on that. They could have grabbed the credit for bailing America out, and that might even have been enough let them keep the senate. A little good press in an election year.

But nope. Nothing is more important than hurting the poors. Not even keeping their own f*cking jobs.

Looking forward to the day we can dump this pathological wreck of a political party once and for all.


Well - consider this: why bother with acting like you care about anybody buy your major donors?? At this point, after 40 years of Fox there is a permanently scared and brainwashed set of voters that will lend their vote over the culture war wedge issues, while you do what you gotta do for your donors. You've successfully gerrymandered those red states into a cabal of unitary one party minority states. I mean, if you're the GOP, you're kind of past the point of needing to act like you give a s***.
 
2020-07-17 6:45:01 AM  

Weatherkiss: Well, that's it. Now I'm seriously on the fence about voting for Donald Trump.


Subby on another thread stole your line!
 
2020-07-17 6:46:39 AM  

eurotrader: iheartscotch: PaulRB: Trump just wants to make sure he loses by the hugest of margins in the history of elections.  You know how he likes superlatives.

I'm not sure that's possible. Nobody ran against George Washington. Nobody received zero votes both times.

I had to check that, you are right. Did learn the first US president was inaugurated in lower Manhattan. https://www.mountvernon.org/george-was​hington/the-first-president/election/1​0-facts-about-washingtons-election/


"Washington, D.C." was but a backwater swamp with urban aspirations
 
2020-07-17 6:51:27 AM  

carkiller: litheandnubile: In my city there are tons of "help wanted" signs in shops all around. I asked a few owners why they have had those signs out for weeks, because if millions of people are unemployed they must be getting 100 a day, so what gives?

What I heard was most of the low income people are getting state benefits PLUS $600 a week PLUS they got a $1200 check. These are people who are used to making less than 2 grand a month, they don't want work because they are making 50% or more being unemployed like this

Less chance of getting covidified by a maskless menace, too.


I am happily staying at home all summer, going out on occasion for groceries - in a mask of course. It's been a great summer for biking.
 
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