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(CNN)   "...any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable"   (cnn.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Epidemiology, Antibody, Vaccination, Immune system, Madrid, Spain's population, largest study, Europe  
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2913 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Jul 2020 at 4:28 AM (5 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-07-07 12:19:22 AM  
Won't stop Trump, though.
 
2020-07-07 1:15:49 AM  
Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,
 
2020-07-07 2:34:11 AM  
orau.orgView Full Size
 
2020-07-07 4:30:29 AM  
Allllll this because the idea of woman president was so yuk to the Burnie Bros and Trump wh@re$.
 
2020-07-07 4:37:00 AM  
This can't be right. There has to be a sound reason for just not doing anything.
 
2020-07-07 4:38:18 AM  
Mother Nature has her own timetable when it comes to balancing out what we've thrown askew over the last 150 years, but she's very efficient once she starts.
 
2020-07-07 4:38:30 AM  

Dave2042: This can't be right. There has to be a sound reason for just not doing anything.


And that sound is, "I dont take responsibility at all."
 
2020-07-07 4:39:47 AM  
i just wanna get the covid now so i don't have to wait so long to get it the second time.
 
2020-07-07 4:45:59 AM  

MrBallou: Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,


Again and again... Until it finally kills us 🥴🤧😷🤒⚰
 
2020-07-07 4:51:53 AM  

poodebunker: MrBallou: Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,

Again and again... Until it finally kills us 🥴🤧😷🤒⚰


Or the rich and powerful could help us Social distance. But, nooooo, I don't want to be reduced to normal status. God forbid.

Thank you to all the people that carry water for the rich and powerful, I'm sure they appreciate your stupidity.
 
2020-07-07 5:03:17 AM  

MrBallou: Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,


I mean, isn't that what has happened with pretty much every deadly infectious diseases since the dawn of humanity?

Spanish flu wasn't cured by lockdown measures or a vaccine, right? And yet...here we are.
 
2020-07-07 5:06:36 AM  

Fark_Guy_Rob: MrBallou: Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,

I mean, isn't that what has happened with pretty much every deadly infectious diseases since the dawn of humanity?

Spanish flu wasn't cured by lockdown measures or a vaccine, right? And yet...here we are.


You are correct.
 
2020-07-07 5:11:25 AM  
 
2020-07-07 5:13:17 AM  
The thing I find interesting is that about 10% of those who had a positive PCR test over 14 days before antibody testing were apparently sero negative.

Given approximately 300,000 positive PCR tests in Spain, this means a population of 30,000 who had tested positive appear not to show detectable IgGs against Covid-19. That's a fair sized number of individuals. Spain has recorded a bit over 6,000 cases per million people.

So if that 10% without detectable antibodies was not immune to reinfection, how many should we have seen get re-infected?  Crudely, 30,000 * 0.006 or 180.

That's a high estimate for a few reasons but not outrageously so. But we don't have reports of someone recovering, testing negative by PCR and getting sick again. There have been some reports of lingering positive PCR tests but as far as I've been able to follow, those people are shedding virus fragments and they have not been able to detect any infectious viral particles: it's just the sensitivity of PCR at detected viral fragments from slowly healing lungs.

And that's just Spain. We don't have such a case in the US, or reported from China, or Italy or anywhere as far as I know. And there would be thousands of such cases if only the seronegative people were getting re-infected. There would be more if the reports of the rapidly declining antibody titers meant loss of immunity.

Ultimately, that seems like good news. People are not getting re-infected --- yet.
 
2020-07-07 5:14:23 AM  
"We are all in this together, by ourselves."
 
2020-07-07 5:18:21 AM  

Fark_Guy_Rob: Spanish flu wasn't cured by lockdown measures or a vaccine, right? And yet...here we are.


Seasonal flu is seasonal.
 
2020-07-07 5:20:07 AM  
Some of the same assholes going on about being anti-mask, anti-social distancing are the same assholes who say herd immunity is the only way, and that really pisses me off, especially because herd immunity and mask wearing have the effect of protecting the uninfected from people who can spread the virus.
 
2020-07-07 5:21:05 AM  
I being #autoimmune, can never forsee a time when I wander in the public without a mask + gloves.  This one will kill me given the chance.
 
2020-07-07 5:28:38 AM  
On the plus side, if 5% of Spain has been infected, that puts the mortality rate a little lower than earlier estimates, somewhere around 1%.

Shaggy_C: Coronavirus immunity is for months.


We don't know that.
 
2020-07-07 5:32:09 AM  
Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, the research position that is slowly seeping out is that the most we can "hope" for is a 40% reduction in infections among vaccinated people.

The human immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is for the immune system to collaborate with the virus by working to kill us rather than fighting the infection, and, if we do survive, forgetting the virus to ensure it has a better chance to kill us the next time around. No vaccine can fix this.

Get used to wearing a mask for the rest of your life, never traveling, never going to live sports, never having in-person education, and, if you're over 60, never stepping out of your house ever again.

I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.
 
2020-07-07 5:37:09 AM  

born_yesterday: Dave2042: This can't be right. There has to be a sound reason for just not doing anything.

And that sound is, "I dont take responsibility at all."


It's amazing how dereliction of duty, incompetence, and being a traitor all look the same right now.
 
2020-07-07 5:38:29 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: Fark_Guy_Rob: Spanish flu wasn't cured by lockdown measures or a vaccine, right? And yet...here we are.

Seasonal flu is seasonal.


Somewhat, and there were lockdowns. And there is some cross-reactive immunity to related flu.

It is thus possible that a reasonable proportion of the population had limited immunity already. This has some complex repercussions. If you get your initial inoculation with  relatively high viral load, the virus can quickly overwhelm your system even if you have this partial immunity. But if you get a low dose inoculation your system may both be able to mount an initial fight and have time to develop a better/specific/effective response.

There's also a theory that the Spanish Flu did what many very lethal viruses do, exterminates itself in it's more virulent forms because dead people don't shed more virus. So less lethal mutations out reproduced and out infected the more lethal strains. But as I said, it's a theory.
 
2020-07-07 5:38:53 AM  

NobleHam: On the plus side, if 5% of Spain has been infected, that puts the mortality rate a little lower than earlier estimates, somewhere around 1%.


The danger of SARS-CoV-2 isn't the fatality rate, it's the hospitalization rate and permanent disability rate. To be entirely blunt about it, 1% of the population suddenly dying, especially among the very old, is a survivable event for society. What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population, nor would society survive 20% of the population dying in every wave of the infection because no hospital are is available.  We also probably can't survive 1 in 20 people becoming permanently unable to work after surviving COVID-19.
 
2020-07-07 5:40:31 AM  

waxbeans: poodebunker: MrBallou: Prepare to get sick.

Idiots (well, one idiot focused on getting re-elected and the uberidiots that follow him) ruined any chance of containing the spread of the virus, so you're probably going to get it eventually.

1-5% of us will die, 20% or so will have long term effects, and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again,

Again and again... Until it finally kills us 🥴🤧😷🤒⚰

Or the rich and powerful could help us Social distance. But, nooooo, I don't want to be reduced to normal status. God forbid.

Thank you to all the people that carry water for the rich and powerful, I'm sure they appreciate your stupidity.


Now get back to work, human capital stock.
 
2020-07-07 5:42:24 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.


There is probably a reason why our Galaxy/Universe seems so quiet, none of us have made it yet.  (Though more likely, those who have made it, do not give a crap about those who haven't.)
 
2020-07-07 6:03:04 AM  

Langdon_777: WalkingSedgwick: I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.

There is probably a reason why our Galaxy/Universe seems so quiet, none of us have made it yet.  (Though more likely, those who have made it, do not give a crap about those who haven't.)


Perhaps an "advanced" civilization keep us around like some humans keep roosters for cock fighting or dogs for fighting. And maybe soon the more enlightened ones within their civilization will decide to put an end to all the cruelty and have us all euthanized.
 
2020-07-07 6:06:45 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, the research position that is slowly seeping out is that the most we can "hope" for is a 40% reduction in infections among vaccinated people.

The human immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is for the immune system to collaborate with the virus by working to kill us rather than fighting the infection, and, if we do survive, forgetting the virus to ensure it has a better chance to kill us the next time around. No vaccine can fix this.

Get used to wearing a mask for the rest of your life, never traveling, never going to live sports, never having in-person education, and, if you're over 60, never stepping out of your house ever again.

I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-07 6:12:29 AM  

MrBallou: and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again


Not a conclusion of this study. The problem is no lack of antibodies in those infected, but the relatively low numbers infected.
 
2020-07-07 6:13:12 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: Meanwhile, on the vaccine front, the research position that is slowly seeping out is that the most we can "hope" for is a 40% reduction in infections among vaccinated people.

The human immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is for the immune system to collaborate with the virus by working to kill us rather than fighting the infection, and, if we do survive, forgetting the virus to ensure it has a better chance to kill us the next time around. No vaccine can fix this.

Get used to wearing a mask for the rest of your life, never traveling, never going to live sports, never having in-person education, and, if you're over 60, never stepping out of your house ever again.

I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-07 6:13:31 AM  

Shaggy_C: Coronavirus immunity is for months.


[Citation needed]
 
2020-07-07 6:14:46 AM  

orbister: MrBallou: and the rest of us will keep getting it over and over again

Not a conclusion of this study. The problem is no lack of antibodies in those infected, but the relatively low numbers infected.


I have to disagree, MrBallou, I actually think tons of people get it and don't know. And keep having that happen, till they get actual hardcore sick.
 
2020-07-07 6:15:34 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.


You've pushed this nonsense before. It's still nonsense.
 
2020-07-07 6:18:19 AM  

WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population


We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.
 
2020-07-07 6:31:34 AM  

orbister: WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population

We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.


Can you imagine being so dumb that you think 100% of the population will have covid all at once?
 
2020-07-07 6:33:16 AM  
It works with drive by shootings.
 
2020-07-07 6:34:21 AM  

orbister: WalkingSedgwick: I don't give technological civilization more than even odds of surviving the next ten years. We're finished. Full stop.

You've pushed this nonsense before. It's still nonsense.


Especially the part where he said he'd fully stop. Come on, you owe it to yourself to honor your promise to us.
 
2020-07-07 6:45:49 AM  
Lotta inaccurate stupidity in this thread
 
2020-07-07 6:49:34 AM  
Another thing COVID has taught us is that people tend rely on their own sociopathic analytical skills instead of those of real expects if they are inconvenienced in any way.
 
2020-07-07 6:51:41 AM  

orbister: Shaggy_C: Coronavirus immunity is for months.

[Citation needed]


I'm not going to do your legwork for you. It's widely available, with information both about the new coronavirus as well as all of the other known species (SARS, MERS) which have no long-term immunity.
 
2020-07-07 6:53:01 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: orbister: WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population

We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.

Can you imagine being so dumb that you think 100% of the population will have covid all at once?


I can tell you that Sunday night I was rushed to the ER after vomiting a profuse amount of bright red blood from a clear upper GI bleed.

Blood pressure low, pulse high, disoriented on triage.

When a doctor finally came to see me he didn't palpate, or so much as produce a stethoscope to check bowel sounds.

He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".

With a known history of alcoholism, had I just blown esophageal varices, I would have bled out in my sleep.

We need the beds for more things than just covid. Badly.
 
2020-07-07 6:53:53 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-07 6:54:13 AM  

ToughActinProlactin: cameroncrazy1984: orbister: WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population

We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.

Can you imagine being so dumb that you think 100% of the population will have covid all at once?

I can tell you that Sunday night I was rushed to the ER after vomiting a profuse amount of bright red blood from a clear upper GI bleed.

Blood pressure low, pulse high, disoriented on triage.

When a doctor finally came to see me he didn't palpate, or so much as produce a stethoscope to check bowel sounds.

He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".

With a known history of alcoholism, had I just blown esophageal varices, I would have bled out in my sleep.

We need the beds for more things than just covid. Badly.


Ok?

Not sure what your story has to do with my comment.
 
2020-07-07 6:55:27 AM  
We had a whopping 35 cases in Erie county yesterday. 35. And we aren't shut down. Because masks and social distancing f*cking work.
 
2020-07-07 6:55:39 AM  

cameroncrazy1984: ToughActinProlactin: cameroncrazy1984: orbister: WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population

We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.

Can you imagine being so dumb that you think 100% of the population will have covid all at once?

I can tell you that Sunday night I was rushed to the ER after vomiting a profuse amount of bright red blood from a clear upper GI bleed.

Blood pressure low, pulse high, disoriented on triage.

When a doctor finally came to see me he didn't palpate, or so much as produce a stethoscope to check bowel sounds.

He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".

With a known history of alcoholism, had I just blown esophageal varices, I would have bled out in my sleep.

We need the beds for more things than just covid. Badly.

Ok?

Not sure what your story has to do with my comment.


That you don't need that many people to have covid to seriously fark the rest of us.
 
2020-07-07 6:57:17 AM  
Sweden observed not making eye contact
 
2020-07-07 6:57:33 AM  

ToughActinProlactin: cameroncrazy1984: ToughActinProlactin: cameroncrazy1984: orbister: WalkingSedgwick: What's not survivable is the 1 in 5 COVID-19 victims who need hospital care to survive. We don't have the hospital beds for 20% of the population

We don't need them because - and let me know if this is too hard a concept - not everybody who gets COVID-19 gets it at precisely the same time. The average hospital stay is eight days.

Can you imagine being so dumb that you think 100% of the population will have covid all at once?

I can tell you that Sunday night I was rushed to the ER after vomiting a profuse amount of bright red blood from a clear upper GI bleed.

Blood pressure low, pulse high, disoriented on triage.

When a doctor finally came to see me he didn't palpate, or so much as produce a stethoscope to check bowel sounds.

He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".

With a known history of alcoholism, had I just blown esophageal varices, I would have bled out in my sleep.

We need the beds for more things than just covid. Badly.

Ok?

Not sure what your story has to do with my comment.

That you don't need that many people to have covid to seriously fark the rest of us.


Well that's true. That's why masks and social distancing are important.
 
2020-07-07 6:58:11 AM  

ToughActinProlactin: He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".

I think that just means he was late for golf.
 
2020-07-07 6:59:25 AM  

dragonchild: ToughActinProlactin: He discharged me with Protonix and and antinausea medication without so much as an exam because "they simply had no resources or beds".
I think that just means he was late for golf.


He was the on call doc at 9pm so maybe he just wanted a nap I guess
 
2020-07-07 7:00:56 AM  

Shaggy_C: orbister: Shaggy_C: Coronavirus immunity is for months.

[Citation needed]

I'm not going to do your legwork for you.


That's a shame, because medical science so far says it doesn't know how long COVID-19 immunity lasts, so if you have better information you really should submit it to peer-reviewed journals.
 
2020-07-07 7:01:22 AM  
 
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