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(NPR)   The good news: Florida did not have back to back days of 10k new coronavirus cases. The bad news: 9,999   (npr.org) divider line
    More: Dumbass, United States, Phoenix, Arizona, U.S. state, California, new resident cases, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, State, new cases  
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1634 clicks; posted to Main » on 06 Jul 2020 at 5:29 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-07-05 9:24:07 PM  
 
2020-07-05 11:02:00 PM  
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2020-07-06 5:34:10 AM  
And then you have asymptomatic carriers, and all the people who are too poor, too proud, or too stupid to seek treatment.
 
2020-07-06 5:51:12 AM  

dv-ous: [cdn.theatlantic.com image 615x270]

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Uzbekibekisamberg?
 
2020-07-06 5:51:49 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size


/itsanoldermeme.jpg
 
2020-07-06 6:21:34 AM  
At least they keep the brand synergy with Disney, but they had to up the number from the Haunted Mansion's 999 ghosts to keep up with the virus.
 
2020-07-06 6:22:03 AM  
Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.
 
2020-07-06 6:23:03 AM  

bittermang: And then you have asymptomatic carriers, and all the people who are too poor, too proud, or too stupid to seek treatment.


-

...too poor, too proud, or too stupid...

I think you just described 99% of Redcaps, there.
 
2020-07-06 6:27:59 AM  

AngryDragon: Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.


There is no case for herd immunity. Why do people keep saying that?
 
2020-07-06 6:34:15 AM  
Sounds legit.
 
2020-07-06 6:42:37 AM  

solokumba: AngryDragon: Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.

There is no case for herd immunity. Why do people keep saying that?


Around here it's primarily because most people understand sarcasm.
 
2020-07-06 6:49:33 AM  
Weird how the death counts keep going down every week
 
2020-07-06 6:54:21 AM  

Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/


I've heard that weekend data is typically unreliable in American epistemology. It wouldn't surprise me to see a spike on Monday.

/My California county has stopped reporting numbers on weekends
 
2020-07-06 6:57:24 AM  

mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-06 7:03:57 AM  
One word. DeSantis
 
2020-07-06 7:06:40 AM  

Jz4p: Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/

I've heard that weekend data is typically unreliable in American epistemology. It wouldn't surprise me to see a spike on Monday.

/My California county has stopped reporting numbers on weekends


Usually Tuesday has the spike. But that's nationally because some states have a lag on Monday, and some have a lag on Sunday only. Since 5/31m Florida's Monday numebrs are have been lower than their Sunday numbers.
 
2020-07-06 7:17:33 AM  

AngryDragon: Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.


More like next May...
 
2020-07-06 7:19:37 AM  
 
2020-07-06 7:22:23 AM  

solokumba: AngryDragon: Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.

There is no case for herd immunity. Why do people keep saying that?


Because there exists a sufficient number of morons who aren't taking this seriously. A thirty day hard lockdown followed by six months of physical distancing, mask wearing, limited travel, and liberal  hand washing would have quashed this thing. I'm in Hawaii, and I see the writing on the wall. We were doing good, started reopening, and by August first we will be in shutdown 2.0.
 
2020-07-06 7:22:45 AM  

JohnHall: Jz4p: Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/

I've heard that weekend data is typically unreliable in American epistemology. It wouldn't surprise me to see a spike on Monday.

/My California county has stopped reporting numbers on weekends

Usually Tuesday has the spike. But that's nationally because some states have a lag on Monday, and some have a lag on Sunday only. Since 5/31m Florida's Monday numebrs are have been lower than their Sunday numbers.


Thanks, that's useful to know. I'm provisionally marking you as a favorite, don't ruin my trust :D
 
2020-07-06 7:22:48 AM  
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2020-07-06 7:24:09 AM  

Jz4p: Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/

I've heard that weekend data is typically unreliable in American epistemology. It wouldn't surprise me to see a spike on Monday.

/My California county has stopped reporting numbers on weekends


Yeah, seven day moving average. You can see the stair step pattern on the daily total bar graphs. Up, up, up, for five days, then down on the weekend, followed by a spike on Monday.
 
2020-07-06 7:42:53 AM  

mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week


They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-06 7:47:53 AM  

valenumr: Jz4p: Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/

I've heard that weekend data is typically unreliable in American epistemology. It wouldn't surprise me to see a spike on Monday.

/My California county has stopped reporting numbers on weekends

Yeah, seven day moving average. You can see the stair step pattern on the daily total bar graphs. Up, up, up, for five days, then down on the weekend, followed by a spike on Monday.


You'll probably see a three day step since we had a holiday on Friday. We saw the same on Easter and Memorial Day weekends.
 
2020-07-06 7:55:16 AM  

mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week


I've been wondering about that. Did they figure out more effective treatment for critical patients? Or maybe the virus is mutating into less deadly strains, as viruses usually do, as a pathogen that does not kill its host quite as quickly has a better chance of transmission?
 
2020-07-06 7:56:09 AM  

solokumba: AngryDragon: Well, on the plus side by the time I end up going back to the office (probably in January at this rate) we should have achieved herd immunity.

Thank you derpers for making the sacrifice.

There is no case for herd immunity. Why do people keep saying that?


You mean it can't happen or that the costs will be too high to let it happen?

There's still a lot we don't know about this virus, including various aspects of our immune response (such as duration and T-cell defenses). So you could certainly make a case the possibility exists. Doesn't mean you're right, but you could make the case.
 
2020-07-06 7:57:46 AM  
i.imgur.comView Full Size
 
2020-07-06 7:59:32 AM  

lobotomy survivor: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

I've been wondering about that. Did they figure out more effective treatment for critical patients? Or maybe the virus is mutating into less deadly strains, as viruses usually do, as a pathogen that does not kill its host quite as quickly has a better chance of transmission?


Assisted living facilities are being more careful.
 
2020-07-06 8:00:06 AM  
Is anyone ready to give Ron DeSantis his apology?
Fark user imageView Full Size

IMMERSED IN THE DATA AND RESEARCH!  TRUE STORY!
 
2020-07-06 8:04:50 AM  
This will be heralded as a major improvement.
 
2020-07-06 8:06:36 AM  

Tracianne: 10,059 actually... so yes back to back days
https://www.local10.com/news/local/202​0/07/02/coronavirus-florida-cases-covi​d-19-spike-record-numbers/



I came here to say this. The 9,999 is the number of Florida residents who got the infection: https://floridahealthcovid​19.gov/. If you click through to the dashboard you see the real numbers: https://experience.arcgis.co​m/experien​ce/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429.

For some reason Florida makes a distinction between residents and non-residents in deaths and cases. It's weird. I haven't seen anyone else do it. My theory (utterly unsubstantiated) is that that way of counting was instituted when DeSantis was trying to blame New Yorkers for bringing it here, and, ever since then it's kept going b/c of inertia.

An alternative theory is that it was done to produce lower case and death numbers, but, as can be seen by these numbers, it's utterly failed to do that and local media always reports the larger number anyway.
 
2020-07-06 8:06:39 AM  

lobotomy survivor: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

I've been wondering about that. Did they figure out more effective treatment for critical patients? Or maybe the virus is mutating into less deadly strains, as viruses usually do, as a pathogen that does not kill its host quite as quickly has a better chance of transmission?


My anecdotal observation is older more vulnerable people are taking the threat seriously and younger people are pretending it doesn't exist. This is reflected in the demographics of the surge in cases. Younger people are being infected at higher rates but they have the best chances at surviving.
 
2020-07-06 8:08:14 AM  
A lesson in psychology and public health emergencies. I dont understand why anyone would congregate at a bar anywhere during a pandemic but I guess age changes your perspective.

Like yelling "fire"in a movie theater, certain civil rights don't apply to threats to public health. Some people dont get it. In Florida, Arizona, and California especially.

We need to keep bars closed indefinitely and ticket people who dont wear masks.  Including protesters.  Treating protesters differently doesnt help either.
 
2020-07-06 8:11:21 AM  
SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


Or they counting differently. One of the things that makes you go "hmm" is the way that cases have increased but deaths hit a certain level very quickly and then don't exceed that level. In other places,  deaths pace with cases, the rate declining a bit as treatment options improved but they certainly didn't halt cases.

A project for someone with a little time (I'm busy today.) Compare case rates vs. deaths in NY, IL, FL, and TX over time. They should be the same if all four states have the same CFR. Exception: NY may have a higher CFR early because of healthcare saturation (that is, people who would have survived with proper care but couldn't get it because the hospitals were full.)

There's also the secondary cost. If you had a heart attack in NY City in earlyJanuary, your odds of survival were much higher than if you had it in early March, because there was little to no ICU space left in early March. These aren't directly counted as COVID-19 fatalities, because they aren't, but they are in fact related deaths that could have been avoided.

The real tell will be in the future. DeSantis may be able to lie about why a person died, but they still died. That gets counted. When we compare the number of deaths in the recent weeks to historical averages, we'll see the true cost. Epidemiologists call these "excess deaths" - that is, deaths that are higher than long established averages.

Indeed, on of the thing that's been on the back burner that I need to bring forward is looking at December 2019 and January 2020 excess deaths.
 
2020-07-06 8:12:37 AM  

lobotomy survivor: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

I've been wondering about that. Did they figure out more effective treatment for critical patients? Or maybe the virus is mutating into less deadly strains, as viruses usually do, as a pathogen that does not kill its host quite as quickly has a better chance of transmission?


If I had to guess, it's primarily because the cases have skewed quite a bit younger. Lots of cases in younger adults now. If you're under 40 and reasonably healthy, you're not likely to die.

There's likely a seasonal aspect. There's a reason cold and flu season is in the winter. Maybe the vitamin d issue.

There could be differences in initial viral dosage. Could be a lot of the earlier cases were transmitted by closer indoor contact resulting in higher initial dosage. Could be more of the new initial infections are from lower doses because of mask use, better ventilation, etc. There is reason to think lower initial doses lessen the chance of severe issues.

Could be better protection of the elderly, especially in nursing homes.

There are likely improvements in care and treatments. Also, hospitals should just be better prepared now in general, including more use of ppe.
 
2020-07-06 8:17:32 AM  

SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]


No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45.

The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening.
 
2020-07-06 8:19:11 AM  

eiger: SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]

No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45.

The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening.


if it's a "Trailing" moving average (like 99% of the useless plots I've seen in the media) it's useless.  Central-based moving average or GTFO
 
2020-07-06 8:21:02 AM  

SanityIsAFullTimeJob: lobotomy survivor: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

I've been wondering about that. Did they figure out more effective treatment for critical patients? Or maybe the virus is mutating into less deadly strains, as viruses usually do, as a pathogen that does not kill its host quite as quickly has a better chance of transmission?

If I had to guess, it's primarily because the cases have skewed quite a bit younger. Lots of cases in younger adults now. If you're under 40 and reasonably healthy, you're not likely to die.

There's likely a seasonal aspect. There's a reason cold and flu season is in the winter. Maybe the vitamin d issue.

There could be differences in initial viral dosage. Could be a lot of the earlier cases were transmitted by closer indoor contact resulting in higher initial dosage. Could be more of the new initial infections are from lower doses because of mask use, better ventilation, etc. There is reason to think lower initial doses lessen the chance of severe issues.

Could be better protection of the elderly, especially in nursing homes.

There are likely improvements in care and treatments. Also, hospitals should just be better prepared now in general, including more use of ppe.


Oh, and of course test availability. Early on, if you got a test, you likely had at least a moderate case.

Now that testing has increased by 5x-10x, more minor infections are likely getting recorded.
 
2020-07-06 8:25:33 AM  

Leader O'Cola: eiger: SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]

No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45.

The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening.

if it's a "Trailing" moving average (like 99% of the useless plots I've seen in the media) it's useless.  Central-based moving average or GTFO


Alright, alright. I just calculated the centered for 7-day. I got roughly the same results (bottomed out at 30 and now back up to 45). Happy?
 
2020-07-06 8:30:40 AM  
At this rate, it should only take about 5 years for the entire state to become infected.
 
2020-07-06 8:30:44 AM  

SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]


Also as most new cases are under 40 they are less likely to die, but will likely have long term health effects.
In a week or two we should start seeing the Death Counts go up, it will be insightful to see what the age breakdowns will be like.
 
2020-07-06 8:35:12 AM  
"I will tell you, a month ago one in 10 people were testing positive. Today, it's one in four," Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner told CBS. "The number of people who are getting sick and going to the hospitals has exponentially increased. The number of people in our ICU beds has exponentially increased. In fact, if we don't get our hands around this virus quickly, in about two weeks our hospital system could be in serious, serious trouble."

So it sounds like what you're saying is that we need to do less testing.
 
2020-07-06 8:37:48 AM  

eiger: Leader O'Cola: eiger: SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]

No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45.

The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening.

if it's a "Trailing" moving average (like 99% of the useless plots I've seen in the media) it's useless.  Central-based moving average or GTFO

Alright, alright. I just calculated the centered for 7-day. I got roughly the same results (bottomed out at 30 and now back up to 45). Happy?


which formula did you use for the central based moving average with an even number of points (14)
?
 
2020-07-06 8:56:48 AM  

Cataholic: At this rate, it should only take about 5 years for the entire state to become infected die.


FIFY
 
2020-07-06 9:01:30 AM  

eiger: For some reason Florida makes a distinction between residents and non-residents in deaths and cases. It's weird. I haven't seen anyone else do it. My theory (utterly unsubstantiated) is that that way of counting was instituted when DeSantis was trying to blame New Yorkers for bringing it here, and, ever since then it's kept going b/c of inertia.


I think you are correct in why the data is separated the way it is.  DeIdiot tried very hard at the beginning of this to say the numbers were due to tourists yet the numbers never worked out that way no matter how many times he tried to push it.
 
2020-07-06 9:01:56 AM  

eiger: Leader O'Cola: eiger: SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either. Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now. [Fark user image 425x378] No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45. The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening. if it's a "Trailing" moving average (like 99% of the useless plots I've seen in the media) it's useless.  Central-based moving average or GTFO Alright, alright. I just calculated the centered for 7-day. I got roughly the same results (bottomed out at 30 and now back up to 45). Happy?


91-divoc.com is showing an increase in deaths per day (7-day average). Sadly, the link generator does not appear to be working directly, so here is the graph...

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-06 9:02:05 AM  
Fark user imageView Full Size
\
Ron's all bowed up.  You want a piece of Ron?
 
2020-07-06 9:02:23 AM  
I saw CDC expects 20% of all COVID19 infections to need hospitilzations. I don't know if Florida has enough hospital bed capacity to treat that many sick folks, but if the hosptial system does get overwhelmed, people will also start dying from things because they couldn't get treated fast enough.

Not to mention with so many infected and treated, you will have hosptial staff coming down with COVID19 further reducing treatment.
 
2020-07-06 9:05:59 AM  
Going according to plan!  Nice.
 
2020-07-06 9:13:51 AM  

Leader O'Cola: eiger: Leader O'Cola: eiger: SanityIsAFullTimeJob: mikaloyd: Weird how the death counts keep going down every week

They're not going doing in Florida. But... they haven't started going back up yet either.

Note the baseline case count per day from the end of March till about a month ago was less than 1,000/day. Now they're at 10x the cases. Even factoring in lag time for deaths to show up, it does appear it's an effectively different situation now.


[Fark user image 425x378]

No, they have started going back up, if not by a lot. The 14-day average bottomed-out at 35 for much of June. It's now back up to 40. The 7-day average bottomed-out at 30 in mid-June and is now back up to around 45.

The increases aren't huge, likely reflecting the younger folks being infected, but an increase is definitely happening.

if it's a "Trailing" moving average (like 99% of the useless plots I've seen in the media) it's useless.  Central-based moving average or GTFO

Alright, alright. I just calculated the centered for 7-day. I got roughly the same results (bottomed out at 30 and now back up to 45). Happy?

which formula did you use for the central based moving average with an even number of points (14)
?


I didn't because I didn't feel like it. The data is readily available and downloadable. If you're so desperate for that number, do it yourself.
 
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