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(The Atlantic)   Biden's insurmountable poll numbers are real, and they're fantastic. The only question is how huge the margin of victory will be, according to Democratic advisor who helped Hillary Clinton win the 2016 election   (theatlantic.com) divider line
    More: Obvious, Democratic Party, Barack Obama, President of the United States, Republican Party, Donald Trump, United States presidential election, 2008, United States, Biden Builds Largest Lead  
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762 clicks; posted to Politics » on 03 Jul 2020 at 7:17 AM (4 weeks ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook



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2020-07-02 8:54:54 PM  
Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?
 
2020-07-02 8:56:11 PM  
She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
 
2020-07-02 8:58:26 PM  

King Something: She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.


Which is like saying the Panthers won the Super Bowl because they had the longer time of possession.
 
2020-07-02 8:59:59 PM  
Eye on the prize, get everyone to the polls. Even if we "got this" let's stomp his dick in the dirt.

Never relent until after the election.

Mobilize EVERYONE.garyoldman.gif
 
2020-07-02 9:02:33 PM  
So the point is the popular vote should win you an election?

Did you read my question?
 
2020-07-02 9:24:51 PM  
Remember: Neither Victory nor Defeat are assured until the last shot is fired...
Get out. Vote. Don't make excuses.
 
2020-07-02 9:34:20 PM  
Wanebo: Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?


In a word: yes.

In more words: "Even more significant, notice how much Clinton dropped between the third and fourth graphs near the end while Trump hardly dropped at all. That shows how soft her support was and how firm his was. In fact, Trump rose from the dead (which seems appropriate for someone whose following resembles a religious cult). Also notice how Clinton's hard support (the fourth graph) dropped off precipitously in the first week of November, after former FBI Director James Comey announced "More e-mails!". This was completely visible to the naked eye by Nov. 8 (Election Day). She was sinking like a stone and he was rising. All you had to do was look at this graph. Our data was up there in real time, with one new data point every day. "
 
2020-07-03 3:12:03 AM  
white, working-class, Catholic voters whom my research decades earlier had labeled "Reagan Democrats."

It's been 40 years. Go ahead and call them Republicans.
 
2020-07-03 6:42:34 AM  
FTA:


-----

"Mostly using exit polls from prior elections as their guide, pollsters-including me-had overestimated the number of four-year college graduates in the electorate. Getting that wrong mattered a lot in an election where the white working class was in revolt. Crucially, many pollsters, including me, have adjusted our assumptions about the makeup of the November 2020 electorate.

So one reason to trust my polls more now than in 2016 is this change: Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of my survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of my surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change-an elixir against being deceived again."
-----


Are these the same polls that assure us what the American people overwhelmingly want is more moderate policies, and a return to "normalcy" where wealthy old white men ruled the earth?
 
2020-07-03 7:21:36 AM  

Wanebo: Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?


Roughly, yes, but they show a much, much bigger lead for Biden than Hillary had.

There's a reason Trump and the GOP are in full-on panic.

In the end, the future is inherently unpredictable, but this election is not going at all like 2016.
 
2020-07-03 7:21:37 AM  
If these poll numbers bring you any positivefeelings other than continued misery, smack yourself in the face with a baseball bat because enjoying Donnie's misery is exactly 100% the absolute same as not voting months from now.
 
2020-07-03 7:23:10 AM  

Bith Set Me Up: King Something: She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

Which is like saying the Panthers won the Super Bowl because they had the longer time of possession.


The Pats outgained the Eagles in total yardage.  They should have been given the Lombardi Trophy.
 
2020-07-03 7:23:15 AM  

born_yesterday: If these poll numbers bring you any positivefeelings other than continued misery, smack yourself in the face with a baseball bat because enjoying Donnie's misery is exactly 100% the absolute same as not voting months from now.


How does doing something now prevent me from doing an entirely unrelated thing in the future?
 
2020-07-03 7:23:47 AM  
Anyone who had anything significant to do with Hillary's campaign should be beaten with an oar until they are no longer capable of "helping" Biden f*ck up his campaign similarly.

youknowincertainoldercivilizedcultures​.jpg
 
2020-07-03 7:24:59 AM  
VOTE!
 
2020-07-03 7:26:58 AM  
I am not raising any hope until November 5th.
 
2020-07-03 7:33:00 AM  

sorceror: Wanebo: Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?

In a word: yes.

In more words: "Even more significant, notice how much Clinton dropped between the third and fourth graphs near the end while Trump hardly dropped at all. That shows how soft her support was and how firm his was. In fact, Trump rose from the dead (which seems appropriate for someone whose following resembles a religious cult). Also notice how Clinton's hard support (the fourth graph) dropped off precipitously in the first week of November, after former FBI Director James Comey announced "More e-mails!". This was completely visible to the naked eye by Nov. 8 (Election Day). She was sinking like a stone and he was rising. All you had to do was look at this graph. Our data was up there in real time, with one new data point every day. "


I think a big question here is if there's any kind of October surprise that could sink Biden the way Comey re-opening Buttery Mails sank Hillary. I'd say it would have to be way more damning than that sexual assault claim cause everyone's already forgotten about that. It would also have to be more headline grabbing than anything Trump has done so far.

I think the big difference between 2016 and now is who is playing defence. Hillary was on the defence last time. Now Trump is on the defence.
 
2020-07-03 7:33:10 AM  

Parthenogenetic: FTA:


-----"Mostly using exit polls from prior elections as their guide, pollsters-including me-had overestimated the number of four-year college graduates in the electorate. Getting that wrong mattered a lot in an election where the white working class was in revolt. Crucially, many pollsters, including me, have adjusted our assumptions about the makeup of the November 2020 electorate.

So one reason to trust my polls more now than in 2016 is this change: Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of my survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of my surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change-an elixir against being deceived again."-----
Are these the same polls that assure us what the American people overwhelmingly want is more moderate policies, and a return to "normalcy" where wealthy old white men ruled the earth?


Is there something that allows you to be both?

60+43=103%

I'm not sure percentages are supposed to work like that in polls.
 
2020-07-03 7:33:42 AM  
Somaticasual: Remember: Neither Victory nor Defeat are assured until the last shot is fired...
Get out. Vote. Don't make excuses.

Langdon_777:
I am not raising any hope until November 5th.

iheartscotch: VOTE!

These et al. 2020
 
2020-07-03 7:36:54 AM  

aagrajag: Anyone who had anything significant to do with Hillary's campaign should be beaten with an oar until they are no longer capable of "helping" Biden f*ck up his campaign similarly.

youknowincertainoldercivilizedcultures​.jpg


Might as well have a gif...

Fark user imageView Full Size
 
2020-07-03 7:37:51 AM  
The Clinton campaign's worst blunder came in September 2016, when the candidate described "half of Trump's supporters" as "deplorables" and walked right into the white working-class revolt against elites

Her only blunder was underestimating how many of them were deplorable.
 
2020-07-03 7:40:27 AM  

sorceror: Wanebo: Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?

In a word: yes.

In more words: "Even more significant, notice how much Clinton dropped between the third and fourth graphs near the end while Trump hardly dropped at all. That shows how soft her support was and how firm his was. In fact, Trump rose from the dead (which seems appropriate for someone whose following resembles a religious cult). Also notice how Clinton's hard support (the fourth graph) dropped off precipitously in the first week of November, after former FBI Director James Comey announced "More e-mails!". This was completely visible to the naked eye by Nov. 8 (Election Day). She was sinking like a stone and he was rising. All you had to do was look at this graph. Our data was up there in real time, with one new data point every day. "


...so, expect that T***p's campaign will save whatever dirt they'll think they have until right before Election Day.
 
2020-07-03 7:46:24 AM  

GrizzlyPouch: Parthenogenetic: FTA:


-----"Mostly using exit polls from prior elections as their guide, pollsters-including me-had overestimated the number of four-year college graduates in the electorate. Getting that wrong mattered a lot in an election where the white working class was in revolt. Crucially, many pollsters, including me, have adjusted our assumptions about the makeup of the November 2020 electorate.

So one reason to trust my polls more now than in 2016 is this change: Four years ago, those without a four-year degree made up 48 percent of my survey respondents; today they account for 60 percent. Whites without a college degree were 33 percent of my surveys; today they are 43 percent. That is a huge change-an elixir against being deceived again."-----
Are these the same polls that assure us what the American people overwhelmingly want is more moderate policies, and a return to "normalcy" where wealthy old white men ruled the earth?

Is there something that allows you to be both?

60+43=103%

I'm not sure percentages are supposed to work like that in polls.


Yes, "white people without a college degree" has some overlap with "people without a college degree." How much, we can never truly know. One of life's mysteries.
 
2020-07-03 7:48:48 AM  
His campaign has the momentum of a runaway freight train. How does he stay so popular?
 
2020-07-03 7:50:06 AM  
I haven't watched election night reporting since W's first term.  This year, I am actually going to watch so as to "rip off the Band-Aid" rather than cringing in anticipation at the post-Election Day news reporting.  I know absentee ballots will take days to count (such as my own). Assuming Trump is crushed in a landslide, I will giggle like a two year old who just messed in his diaper should that happen.  The Trump campaign will either send someone out with some word salad statement; Trump will present a word salad statement; or, more than likely, Trump will go on an unhinged rant.
 
2020-07-03 7:50:07 AM  
Honestly, a Biden win would sow more chaos than a Trump win. The Russians - and Fox News, Donald Trump's Twitter feed, and the usual YouTube lunatics - are going to lose their minds when Biden wins. 

I hope the Democrats have a plan to deal with that.
 
2020-07-03 7:50:14 AM  

NewportBarGuy: Eye on the prize, get everyone to the polls. Even if we "got this" let's stomp his dick in the dirt.

Never relent until after the election.

Mobilize EVERYONE.garyoldman.gif


exactly! I just dont want him to lose. i want him to lose by the largest margin in history. also want to make sure his idiotic spawn get the message nobody wants them around either. I'm already seeing s*** in the news that says Junior thinks he's going to be president 2024.
 
2020-07-03 7:51:17 AM  

mcnguyen: The Clinton campaign's worst blunder came in September 2016, when the candidate described "half of Trump's supporters" as "deplorables" and walked right into the white working-class revolt against elites

Her only blunder was underestimating how many of them were deplorable.


Hillary's infallibility complex (sustained by her drones' "she can only be failed" bleating) was the reason why she lost.
 
2020-07-03 7:55:38 AM  
1. Hillary isn't running.

2. This isn't 2016.

3. Trump is not a business man promising the world this time around, he's a failed incumbent POTUS.

4. Trump is polling lower than Jimmy Carter was at this time in his presidency.
 
2020-07-03 7:56:33 AM  
One thing that sets Biden apart from 2008's favorite politician/non politician is: he isn't farking boring like
Hillary, and seems like he has the capacity to listen and not get caught up in his arrogance, and he is normal feeling human being unlike our present persistent nightmare of the greatest hits from the DSM-5.

As much as I would like fundamental change across the board in this country, DJT has farked things up so badly that it seems now that even a return to the previous shiatty status quo is too much to ask.

/tldr: ignore the polls-go farking vote
 
2020-07-03 7:56:55 AM  

King Something: She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.


That and a dollar will get you a mcdonald's coffee
 
2020-07-03 7:58:11 AM  

Bith Set Me Up: King Something: She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.

Which is like saying the Panthers won the Super Bowl because they had the longer time of possession.


Trump won the 3 states that won him the election by 78,000 votes total. Is that better?
 
2020-07-03 8:01:03 AM  

js34603: His campaign has the momentum of a runaway freight train. How does he stay so popular?


Because the people who support him don't read or watch the same news as the rest of the world. Faux News doesn't show his racist tweets (or at least doesn't report on them like they're the abominations they are). They don't constantly report on the rising Covid cases. They don't show the tear gassing for a photo op. Instead, they show Biden fumbling his words. They show the CHAZ in Seattle, ad nauseam. They're living in a completely different reality.
 
2020-07-03 8:04:30 AM  

shastacola: 1. Hillary isn't running.

2. This isn't 2016.

3. Trump is not a business man promising the world this time around, he's a failed incumbent POTUS.

4. Trump is polling lower than Jimmy Carter was at this time in his presidency.


Yeah, I'm tired of hearing about 2016. True, we shouldn't be complacent and people do need to get out and vote but the circumstances are vastly different this time around. So yes, by all means vote, no matter how in the bag you think this is. Trump needs to lose by the largest margin possible. But a little cautious optimism can't hurt.
 
2020-07-03 8:06:05 AM  

Parthenogenetic: Are these the same polls that assure us what the American people overwhelmingly want is more moderate policies, and a return to "normalcy" where wealthy old white men ruled the earth?


No, these are polls that exist outside your imagination.
 
2020-07-03 8:06:24 AM  

King Something: She won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.


But she won California by 4 million... So the other 49 States got their pick.
 
2020-07-03 8:06:48 AM  
Three statisticals:

1) 30% of social media posters paid Russians for Trump
2) 1 in 7 Democrats purged from voting rolls
3) Silent Electoral College

Trump wins.  You guys are going to be so pissed off.
 
2020-07-03 8:07:12 AM  
They only need to rig the elections in a couple of sewing states. Again.

UNLESS - We all vote and the swing states do not matter this time.
 
2020-07-03 8:07:58 AM  
GGGGGRRRRRRRRRRR  SWING states, dammit.
 
2020-07-03 8:08:03 AM  
Assume the polls are wrong and it's tied and your vote will make the difference.

Even if you're in a solid red or blue state, there's probably a bunch of down-ballot races you've never heard, that actually make a difference in the lives of people. Find a good person running for one of those and get the vote out for them. It really does make a difference if it's someone you can believe in, but either way don't get complacent.
 
2020-07-03 8:08:06 AM  

Langdon_777: I am not raising any hope until November 5th.


It might be a bit longer than that if a large chunk of states are mostly voting by mail.
 
2020-07-03 8:10:48 AM  

GrizzlyPouch: Is there something that allows you to be both?

60+43=103%

I'm not sure percentages are supposed to work like that in polls.


You're wondering whether it's possible for someone to be both a person without a degree and a white person without a degree?
 
2020-07-03 8:11:43 AM  

Glockenspiel Hero: Three statisticals:

1) 30% of social media posters paid Russians for Trump
2) 1 in 7 Democrats purged from voting rolls
3) Silent Electoral College

Trump wins.  You guys are going to be so pissed off.


LOL It's funny because he's in prison.
 
2020-07-03 8:11:52 AM  
Remember everybody, people thought Hillary had it in the bag so thoroughly that fully 33% of the voting population sat it out.

Do not make the same mistake this time.

Also, fark any third party candidate that tries to siphon votes. I'm looking at you Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard.

Let's not get fooled again.
 
2020-07-03 8:12:57 AM  

shastacola: Trump won the 3 states that won him the election by 78,000 votes total. Is that better?


If it wasn't for those 3 interceptions...
 
2020-07-03 8:13:25 AM  

Wanebo: Just a question.

Are these the same pollers they used for Hillary?


You didn't do well in math, did you?
 
2020-07-03 8:15:53 AM  
The real test will be what garbage  we see from Russia, China and the like on line, what the gov. does about it and how receptive voters are to it this time around.
 
2020-07-03 8:15:55 AM  

FarkingChas: UNLESS - We all vote and the swing states do not matter this time.


You're so right!  If I vote extra hard in New Jersey, the electoral college will cease to exist.  Or something?
 
2020-07-03 8:20:28 AM  

Astorix: Remember everybody, people thought Hillary had it in the bag so thoroughly that fully 33% of the voting population sat it out.


It was the second highest turnout in the last 50 years.
 
2020-07-03 8:21:59 AM  
Math and statistics. It's amazing how many Americans dons't understand the basics.

Regardless, vote. If you're confident your candidate will win, vote and drive up the score.
If you're worried your candidate might lose, vote, it might help. Regardless, vote.

Show up and be counted. Even if you live somewhere where the local majority may be opposed to you, vote. Let them know that there is an opposition. If you live somewhere where your candidate is a sure thing, vote anyway. Let them know how much your candidate is preferred. Vote.

Don't stay home because you think your candidate has no chance, or because your candidate is a sure thing. Vote.
 
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